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7th May 2021

2021 Clarence House Chase Betting Trends and Free Tips

Staged at Ascot racecourse the Clarence House Chase is a Grade One contest run over a distance of 2m1f.

The Clarence House Chase was first run back in 1989 when the popular Desert Orchid won the prize as a 10 year-old. The race is also a good guide to that season’s Queen Mother Champion Chase with Sprinter Sacre landing both races in 2013, Sire de Grugy in 2014, while Dodging Bullets did the same double in 2015. In more recent years, the Willie Mullins-trained Un De Sceaux has made the race his own by landing three of the last five renewals.

The 2020 running though was won by the Philip Hobbs-trained Defi Du Seuil.

Trainers Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls has also won the race five times each and– as mentioned – the Willie Mullins camp have taken three of the last five runnings.

Here at TQ we are on hand with all the key stats ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 23rd January.

 

Recent Clarence House Chase Winners

2020 - DEFI DU SEUIL (11/10 fav)
2019 – ALTIOR (1/10 fav)
2018 - UN DE SCEAUX (4/9 fav)
2017 – UN DE SCEAUX (1/2 fav)
2016 – UN DE SCEAUX (1/2 fav)
2015 – DODGING BULLETS (7/2)
2014 – SIRE DE GRUGY (5/4 fav)
2013 – SPRINTER SACRE (1/5 fav)
2012 – SOMERSBY (9/2)
2011 – MASTER MINDED (4/7 fav)
2010 – TWIST MAGIC (11/8 fav)
2009 – MASTER MINDED (1/4 fav)
2008 – TAMARINBLEU (12/1)
2007 – No Race
2006 – TYSOU (10/1)
2005 – WELL CHIEF (5/1)
2004 – ISIO (4/1)
2003 – No Race

Clarence House Chase Past Trends

17/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
17/17 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
16/17 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
16/17 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
15/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
15/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14/17 – Favourites placed
12/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
12/17 – Won their last race
11/17 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (5 winners)
10/17 – Raced at Sandown (6) or Wetherby (3) last time out
10/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/17 – Favourites that won
8/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
7/17 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
5/17 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 - Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre 2013, 2014 Sire de Grugy, 2015 Dodging Bullets, 2019 Altior)
4/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
4/17 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
4/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 5 times in all)
3/17 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
Since 1989 there have only been 3 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (29 runnings) there have been 12 winners aged 8 years-old
Un De Sceaux has won the race in 2016, 2017 and 2018

The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 10/3

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005 & 2017 – Renewals at Cheltenham

 

Onto the main event and it looks set to be a cracker. The likes of First Flow, Duc Des Genievres and Fanion D’Estruval would all have claims to hit the frame at fair prices, but they all have a fair bit to find at the ratings with the three main players in the race – Politologue, Waiting Patiently and Defi Du Seuil. A case can certainly be made for then all! Defi Du Seuil was a top winner of this race 12 months ago, but has since flopped in both the Champion Chase and the Shloer Chase, so is on a big recovery mission. He’s a strange horse as on his day he’d probably be favourite here and could not have been more impressive in this race last year – beating the classy Un De Sceaux. However, he’s also had his flat spots in his career, so has become a hard horse to trust. Those looking to stick with him will know he’s bounced back before – don’t forget he won the 2017 Triumph Hurdle and was billed as the next best thing and hit the buffers at the end of the 2017 year and most of 2018. But as we all know, he bounced back to win the 2019 JLT Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, plus landed the 2019 Tingle Creek and this race 12 months ago. The Hobbs team have also been having several winners this midweek and he’s still only an 8 year-old! If returning to form, his price might look very big after the race. Waiting Patiently is, of course, another of the other main players, after his excellent second in the King George over Xmas. The drop back to 2m 1f will be the big talking point for him, but he’s a horse that travels well and has plenty of pace – this could easily be the making of him as we know he stays further too and in these conditions and at the stiff Ascot track, his stamina is sure to play a big part at some stage. But his last win was in Feb 2018 and that is a tiny concern, despite only having had five races since. So, that leaves us with POLITOLOGUE – arguably, the horse with the least amount of question marks to his name at the moment. He was an easy winner of the Tingle Creek last time out and, like Waiting Patiently, we know he stays a bit further than this 2m1f trip too. He’s the current Champion Chaser too and probably hasn’t been given the credit he deserves for that win. Soft ground is fine, and the Nicholls yard are in great form too, while he’s the top-rated in the field (just) and has won twice over fences here at Ascot. It’s a fascinating contest, but the safest option, for me, looks to be POLITOLOGUE.

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