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19th January 2022

2021 Epsom Derby Free Tips and Trends

It’s the highlight race on the flat racing calendar as the best middle distance 3 year-olds of the season lock horns in the Epsom Derby. Steeped in history winners of the race will see their stud value rocket as soon as they cross the line.

Did you know that 17 of the last 19 Epsom Derby winners had raced no more than 5 times before?

Here at TQ we take a look at recent winners and highlight the key trends ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 5th June 2021.


Past Epsom Derby Winners

2020 – Serpentine (25/1)
2019 – Anthony Van Dyck (13/2)
2018 – Masar (16/1)
2017 – Wings of Eagles (40/1)
2016 – Harzand (13/2)
2015 – Golden Horn (13/8 fav)
2014 – Australia (11/8 fav)
2013 – Ruler Of The World (7/1)
2012 – Camelot (8/13 fav)
2011 – Pour Moi (4/1)
2010 – Workforce (6/1)
2009 – Sea The Stars (11/4)
2008 – New Approach (5/1)
2007 – Authorized (5/4 fav)
2006 – Sir Percy (6/1)
2005 – Motivator (3/1 fav)
2004 – North Light (7/2 j fav)
2003 – Kris Kin (6/1)
2002 – High Chaparral (7/2)

Epsom Derby Betting Trends

18/19 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
17/19 – Raced no more than 5 times before
17/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
16/19 – Had won a Group race before
16/19 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Won last time out
13/19 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
12/19 – Favourites that were placed
12/19 – Won from a single-figure stall
11/19 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
10/19 – Irish-trained winners
8/19 – Had won a Group One before
7/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 8 in all)
6/19 – Won by the favourite
5/19 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
4/19 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
3/19 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
4/19 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
2/19 – Won over 1m4f before
0/19 – Run at the course before
0/19 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 15/2
10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Golden Horn, 2015 being the most-recent)
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby

Epsom Derby Trainer Stats

Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 and 2020

TQ VERDICT: Onto the ‘big one’ and really here all eyes will be on trainer Aidan O’Brien grabbing his nineth win in the race. He’s normally mob-handed and, don’t forget, 12 months ago he took the prize with his 25/1 shot, Serpentine. But this year he’s only got the one runner – BOLSHOI BALLET – and that might be significant. This well-bred colt has caught the eye in winning his last two at Leopardstown, including the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial by 6 lengths. That race is often a good guide to the Derby, plus now being stepped up to 1m4f for the first time there is every chance there is a lot more in the locker. Yes, the track is an unknown, but that applies to most Derby runners each year. It’s still hard to ignore his chance and he looks the clear one to beat and another potential Ballydoyle superstar in the making. Of the rest, Irish 2000 Guineas winner – Mac Swiney – is interesting too, but I feel the longer trip here is a huge negative. He only just lasted out over 1m last time and was well beaten over 1m2f the time before. Mohaafeth will be trying to give trainer William Haggas his second Epsom Derby win (won it in 1996, Shaamit). Mohaafeth is another lively contender, having won his last three and was very impressive when winning a Listed race last time at HQ.  Another good trial over the years has been the Dante Stakes, so the winner of that race this season – Hurricane Lane – can go well too, having won all three races to date too. The Lingfield Derby Trial was won by Third Realm, but you feel a step up from that would be needed here. SOUTHERN LIGHT (e/w) could be interesting having won well at Leopardstown two runs back and last time had excuses when checked in his race and lost all chance after that. He’s from the shrewd Joseph O’Brien camp, that are still looking for their first Epsom Derby win, but you feel it won’t be long before they are grabbing success here. The other call though is the Ed Dunlop runner – JOHN LEEPER. This well-bred Frankel colt has improved with each race this season, including when landing a Listed race at Newmarket last time out in great fashion. The extra two furlongs should suit too and with just three career runs as long as he can handle the Epsom track, looks a fast-improving horse. Oh, and the icing on the cake is a certain Frankie Dettori, who is looking for his third Derby win, riding!

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