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21st September 2021

2021 Epsom Oaks Free Tips and Trends

Run over 1m4f the Epsom Oaks is the third of the five English Classics to be run each season and is for 3 year-old fillies.

Did you know that 12 of the last 19 winners came from stall 5 or higher?

Here at TQ we take a look back at recent winners and highlight the key trends and trainer stats ahead of the 2021 Epsom race – this year run on Friday 4th June 2021.

 

Recent Epsom Oaks Winners

2020 – Love (11/10 fav)
2019 – Anapurna (8/1)
2018 – Forever Together (7/1)
2017 - Enable (6/1)
2016 – Minding (10/11 fav)
2015 – Qualify (50/1)
2014 – Taghrooda (5/1)
2013 – Talent (20/1)
2012 - Was (20/1)
2011 – Dancing Rain (20/1)
2010 – Snow Fairy (9/1)
2009 – Sariska (9/4 fav)
2008 – Look Here (33/1)
2007 – Light Shift (13/2)
2006 – Alexandrova (9/4 fav)
2005 – Eswarah (11/4 jfav)
2004 – Ouija Board (7/2)
2003 – Casual Look (10/1)
2002 – Kazzia (10/3 fav)

Epsom Oaks Betting Trends

19/19 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
16/19 – Horses from stall 1 that were unplaced
16/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/19 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
12/19 – Won from stall 5 or higher
12/19 – Favourites that were placed
11/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Won by the favourite (1 joint)
6/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
6/19 – Irish-trained winners
5/19 – Returned a double-figure price
5/19 – Ran in the English 1,000 Guineas
3/19 – Trained by John Gosden
3/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/19 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
1/19 – Had run over 1m4f before
0/19 – Had run at the course before
7 of the last 14 favourites were unplaced
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 8 times
Trainer John Gosden has won 3 of the last 7 runnings.
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 11/1
Love (2020), Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks
The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 7 of the last 19 runnings

TQ VERDICT: The feature race on the opening day at Epsom, with the third of the English Classics this season – the Group One Epsom Oaks. 1000 Guineas runner-up Saffon Beach has done well this season - however, this step up to 1m4f is a huge unknown for this Jane Chapple-Hyam runner and breeding suggests it will be ‘touch and go’ if she’s able to last home. It’s a race the powerful Aidan O’Brien yard have dominated in recent times, and they are mob-handed to go well again this time with the likely favourite and second favourite – SANTA BARBARA and Snowfall. The last-named was a top winner of the Musidora Stakes at York last month and with that race a decent trial for the Oaks her chance is there for all to see. That was her first try upped in trip and it was clearly what she needed – there could be more to come now stepping up again here. That said, it’s O’Brien’s other main runner – SANTA BARBARA – that looks the more progressive. This well-bred filly is out of former Derby winner – Camelot – so this step up from 1m to 1m4f should be right up her street. She was last seen running fourth in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket and with that only her second career run is still learning on the job. She’ll find things happening a bit slower over this longer trip. Plus, having shown a few signs of greenness and hanging left in her last race this might not be too big an issue on Epsom’s left-handed course. Of the rest, the Roger Varian pair of Teona and Zeyaadah will provide some strong opposition to the O’Brien pair and have to be considered, as does DUBAI FOUNTAIN (e/w), who actually beat Zeyaadah by a length last time out (getting 3lbs) but is double the price. Finally, it’s worth pointing out that Aidan O’Brien also have Divinely, Willow and La Jaconde in the race and has not been a stranger to landing this prize with a bigger-priced runner over the years.

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