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25th September 2021

2021 Royal Ascot Free Tips and Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 15th June)

More top action in June as the horse racing bandwagon turns its attention to the 2021 Royal Ascot Meeting. The five-day meeting (Tues 15th-Sat 19th June) is always one of the highlights on the flat racing calendar.

Like all big race days, here at TQ we've got it all covered with key trends and stats - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

Did you know? 13 of the last 19 King's Stand Stakes winners finished first or second in their last race

 

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2021 Royal Ascot Horse Racing Trends

Day One – Tuesday 15th June 2021

 

2.30 - Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m ITV

Recent Queen Anne Stakes Winners

2020 – Circus Maximus (4/1 fav)
2019 – Lord Glitters (14/1)
2018 – Accidental Agent (33/1)
2017 – Ribchester (11/10 fav)
2016 – Tepin (11/2)
2015 – Solow (11/8 fav)
2014 – Toronado (4/5 fav)
2013 – Declaration Of War (15/2)
2012 – Frankel (1/10 fav)
2011 – Canford Cliffs (11/8)
2010 – Goldikova (11/8 fav)
2009 – Paco Boy (10/3)
2008 – Haradasun (5/1)
2007 – Ramonti (5/1)
2006 – Ad Valorem (13/2)
2005 – Valixir (4/1)
2004 – Refuse To Bend (12/1)
2003 – Dubai Destination (9/2)
2002 – No Excuse Needed (13/2)

Queen Anne Stakes Trends

18/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
16/19 – Previous winners over 1 mile
15/19 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
15/19 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Had already won a Group 1 race
13/19 - Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Won by a 4 year-old
11/19 – Trained by either R Hannon (3), A P O’Brien (4) or Godolphin (4)
10/19 – Had never run at Ascot before
9/19 – Favourites that were unplaced
9/19 – Ran in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury last time out
8/19 – Won their previous race
6/19 – Winning favourites
3/19  - Ridden by Frankie Dettori
Only 2 winners from Stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
10 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 4 or higher

TQ VERDICT: Favourite backers should be getting off to a flying start in this opening Group One contest with the Gosden-trained PALACE PIER. This high-class 4 year-old has now won six of his seven career starts after returning this season with top wins in the Bet365 Mile and the G1 Lockinge Stakes last time at Newbury. He landed the St James’s Palace Stakes at this meeting last season too and has 5lbs in-hand on his nearest rival – Order Of Australia. That last-named is certainly no mug having won the G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile at Keenland last November and we know this Aidan O’Brien runner stays further than this mile, which connections are sure to exploit. O’Brien also has Lope Y Fernandez in the race, but he was 19 lengths adrift of Palace Pier last time at Newbury so has plenty to prove. Of the rest, Top Rank and Regal Reality have place claims, but if you are looking for two bigger-pried runner, then LORD GLITTERS (e/w) and ACCIDENTIAL AGENT (e/w) are both past winners of this race. Yes, they are both not getting any younger at 8 and 7 years-old but Accidental Agent was a fair 5th in this race 12 months ago at 100/1, while Lord Glitters stayed on well in the Lockinge last time in a race that should have also blown away a few cobwebs.

 

3.05 - Coventry Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f ITV

Recent Coventry Stakes Winners

2020 – Nando Parrado (150/1)
2019 – Arizona (15/8 fav)
2018 – Calyx (2/1 fav)
2017 – Rajasinghe (11/1)
2016 – Caravaggio (13/8 fav)
2015 – Buratino (6/1)
2014 – The Wow Signal (5/1 jfav)
2013 – War Command (20/1)
2012 – Dawn Approach (7/2)
2011 – Power (4/1 fav)
2010 – Strong Suit (15/8 fav)
2009 – Canford Cliffs (7/4 fav)
2008 – Art Connoisseur (8/1)
2007 – Henrythenavigator (11/4 fav)
2006 – Hellvelyn (4/1 jfav)
2005 – Red Clubs (11/2)
2004 – Iceman (5/1 jfav)
2003 – Three Valleys (7/1)
2002 – Statue Of Liberty (16/1)

Coventry Stakes Trends

18/19 – Won their previous race
17/19 – Had never raced at Ascot before
16/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
16/19 – Had between 1 and 2 previous career runs
15/19 - Came from the top three in the betting
14/19 - Foaled in either Feb or March
12/19 – Won over 6f before
10/19 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
7/19 – Ran at either Newbury or Newmarket last time out
6/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon
1/19 - Won by a Jan foal
11 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 6 or higher
7 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 9-19 (inc)

TQ VERDICT: The US-raider, Kaufymaker, will be popular coming from the Wesley Ward yard that love to target horses at this meeting. However, this race has been one that has so far eluded the American handler for whatever reason. This 2 year-old was an easy 6 ¼ length winner at Keenland on debut, but that came over 4 1/2f, so will need to prove she’s as good over this longer 6f trip – she does get a handy 3lbs fillies’ allowance though. 12 months ago we saw a shock Clive Cox-trained 150/1 winner as these 2 year-olds can improve dramatically during this early part of their careers. The Cox camp run Caturra this year. It’s the Hannon and O’Brien yards that have done the best in the race in recent times though – with that in mind their GISBURN and THE ACROPOLIS get the nod. Both have an identical profile in having finished 4th on debut and then winning last time out. The former caught the eye with a smooth 6 ½ length success at Newbury last time so we know the trip is fine. The Acropolis stepped up from his debut with a good win at Listowel just 9 days ago too and it seems this well-bred Churchill colt is coming to the boil nicely at the right time. Of the rest, Masseto, Dhabab, Ebro River and the Frankie-ridden Tolstoy are others to note in the betting.

 

3.40 - King´s Stand Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 5f ITV

Recent King’s Stand Stakes Winners

2020 – Battaash (5/6 fav)
2019 – Blue Point (5/2)
2018 – Blue Point (6/1)
2017 – Lady Aurelia (7/2)
2016 – Profitable (4/1)
2015 – Goldream (20/1)
2014 – Sole Power (5/1)
2013 – Sole Power (8/1)
2012 - Little Bridge (12/1)
2011 - Prohibit (7/1)
2010 - Equiano (9/2)
2009 - Scenic Blast (11/4 fav)
2008 - Equiano (22/1)
2007 - Miss Andretti (3/1 fav)
2006 - Takeover Target (7/1)
2005 - Chineur (7/1)
2004 - The Tatling (8/1)
2003 – Choisir (25/1)

King’s Stand Stakes Trends

19/19 – Aged 7 or younger
17/19 – Had won a Group race before
16/19 – Aged 4 or older
16/19 – Had won over 5f before
13/19 – Finished first or second last time out
14/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/19 – Had run at Ascot before (8 had won at the track)
11/19 – Favourites placed
10/19 – Won by a non-UK based trained horse
6/19 – Ran at either Flemington (3) or Chantilly (3) last time out
6/19 – Favourites that finished third
3/19 – Won by an Australian-trained horse
3/19 – 3 Year-old winners
4/19 – Winning favourites
A horse from stalls 9, 11 & 14 has been placed in 12 of the last 13 runnings

TQ VERDICT: The 2020 winner of this race – BATTAASH – is back for more this year and is still going strong at the age of 7. Yes, age is catching up with him, but he did nothing wrong in will all three starts last season. He’s not been out since last August when landing the Nunthorpe Stakes, but he took this prize off a 254-day break, so the absence isn’t too much of a concern. The quick and drying ground are a plus and regular pilot Jim Crowley gets the leg-up. The current champ won’t have it all his own way though with the improving filly – Winter Power – in the race. This 3 year-old is a fast-improving sprinter, who was an easy winner of a Listed race at York last time. The second that day – Atalis Bay – franked the form to win easily at Sandown last weekend too, while she also gets a handy 10lbs off Battaash (age and fillies’ allowance). This is, however, a step up in grade, and will have a prove she’s as good against better oppo. Oxted won the G1 July Cup last season over 6f and does show plenty of pace for this drop to 5f to be worth a crack, but since having a wind op last summer he’s yet to win a race and been a beaten jolly the last twice – has a bit to answer. US raiders – Extravagant Kid and Maven – are noted too and are sure to blast out from the gates – Frankie Dettori rides Extravagant Kid too. But the other picks are going to be LIBERTY BEACH (e/w) and QUE AMORO (e/w). The former was a fair third in this race last season and should be spot-on for this after a win on heavy ground in the Temple Stakes last month. Que Amoro flopped in Ireland when last seen back in September, but is better than that. She ran Battaash to a length in the Nunthorpe Stakes last season and has gone well off a break in the past too. Trainer Michael Dods is no stranger to taking on the big boys in these top sprints and if you can ignore that last run her previous six efforts have been very consistent and all top three finishes.

4.20 - St James´s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m ITV4

Recent St James’s Palace Stakes Winners

2020 – Palace Pier (4/1)
2019 – Circus Maximus (10/1)
2018 – Without Parole (9/4 fav)
2017 – Barney Roy (5/2)
2016 – Galileo Gold (6/1)
2015 – Gleneagles (8/15 fav)
2014 – Kingman (8/11 fav)
2013 – Dawn Approach (5/4 fav)
2012 – Most Improved (9/1)
2011 – Frankel (3/10 fav)
2010 – Canford Cliffs (11/4 jfav)
2009 – Mastercraftsman (5/6 fav)
2008 – Henrythenavigator (4/7 fav)
2007 – Excellent Art (8/1)
2006 – Araafa (2/1 fav)
2005 – Shamardal (7/4 fav)
2004 – Azamour (9/2)
2003 - Zafeen (8/1)
2002 – Rock Of Gibraltar (4/5 fav)

St James’s Palace Stakes Trends

19/19 - Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
16/19 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
16/19 – Favourites that were placed
16/19 – Had won over a mile before
14/19– Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
12/19 – Previous Group 1 winners
12/19 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
11/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
11/19 – Won their previous race
9/19 – Ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas (Curragh) last time out (7 won it)
6/19 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
5/19 – Had run at Ascot before
Just 2 winners from stall 1 or 2 in the last 13 runnings
6 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 4 or 5

TQ VERDICT: Maybe not a vintage renewal, but still some very smart 3 year-olds on show here, including the 2000 Guineas winner – Poetic Flare. This Jim Bolger runner was also a close runner-up in the Irish 2000 Guineas last month and sixth in the French version. He’s the top-rated in the field and so the one to beat. But I think he’s already had three tough races this season and might be vulnerable. The unbeaten Mostahdaf beat another runner here – Highland Avenue – at Sandown last time out but both are taking big hikes up in class from Listed to Group One level here. Thunder Moon and Chindt could both bounce back after average runs in the 2000 Guineas last time, but it’s two other horses that ran in that race I like. LUCKY VEGA (e/w) was a staying on third in the Guineas and only beaten ½ a length. Yes, he’s since run 4th in the Irish Guineas, but that came on soft/heavy ground so the return to a quicker surface will help. BATTLEGROUND (e/w) is the other of interest. His run in the English Guineas (13th) was too bad to be true and it looked like he just didn’t like the undulations of the Newmarket track that day and lost his action. Ascot should suit better as he’s a course winner here after taking the Chesham Stakes (7f) here last term. Plus, prior to that run, let’s not forget he was a good second in Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf and an easy winner of the Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last season. Ryan Moore sticks with him over the other O’Brien runners – Wembley and Ontario – too.  

 

5.00 - Ascot Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-95) 2m4f ITV4

Ascot Stakes Recent Winners

2020 – Coeur De Lion (16/1)
2019 – The Grand Visir (12/1)
2018 – Lagostovegas (10/1)
2017 – Thomas Hobson (4/1 fav)
2016 – Jennies Jewel (6/1)
2015 – Clondaw Warrior (5/1 fav)
2014 – Domination (12/1)
2013 – Well Sharp (9/1)
2012 – Simenon (8/1)
2011 – Veiled (11/2)
2010 – Junior (17/2)
2009 – Judgethemoment (13/2)
2008 – Missoula (20/1)
2007 – Full House (20/1)
2006 – Baddam (33/1)
2005 – Leg Spinner (9/1)
2004 – Double Obsession (25/1)
2003 – Sindapour (12/1)
2002 – Riyadh (7/1 fav)

Ascot Stakes Trends

16/19 – Carried 9-0 or more
15/19 – Won by a stable better known for their NH runners
14/19 – Had at least 1 previous run on the flat that season
13/19 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
11/19 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
10/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/19 – Won their previous race
4/19 – Trained by Willie Mullins
3/19 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/19 – Winning favourites
7 of the last 13 winners came from a double-figure stall
Just one winner (or placed) horse from stall 1 placed in the last 13 runnings

TQ VERDICT: Run over 2m4f, so one of the Royal Ascot races that we get to see some of the jumping yards with runners on the flat. It’s a race the Willie Mullins camp like to target – they’ve won the race 4 times in the last 9 runnings. They have three entered – M C Muldoon, Rayapour and Royal Illusion. With Ryan Moore riding M C MULDOON then this one will be popular with Moore having ridden three of the 4 recent Mullins winners in this race. This 6 year-old was last seen running well to be third at Punchestown over hurdles at the end of April and could have more to come now upped to 2mf for the first time. Adam Kirby rides Rayapour for Mullins and after a good third over hurdles last time at Kilbeggan should be spot on for this with that coming off a 665-day break. With Hollie Doyle riding Lostwithiel and Grand National-winner Rachael Blackmore steering Cape Gentleman, then these two are sure to attract interest too. Frankie rides Golden Rules, but the trip would be a worry here after getting tired over 1m6f last time. So, the safter call is to also have last year’s winner – COEUR DE LION (e/w) onside. This 8 year-old won’t have any issues staying the 2m4f trip and was a fine fourth in the Chester Cup last time out. This Alan King runner is only 3lbs higher than when winning this race last year and Thore Hammer Hansen, who can claim 3lbs, rides again.  

5.35 - Wolferton Rated Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+ 0-110) 1m2f ITV4

Wolferton Rated Stakes Recent Winners

2020 – Mountain Angel (8/1)
2019 – Addeybb (5/1)
2018 – Monarchs Glen (8/1)
2017 – Snoano (25/1)
2016 – Sir Isaac Newton (7/1)
2015 – Mahsoob (7/4 fav)
2014 – Contributer (9/1)
2013 – Forgotten Voice (12/1)
2012 – Gatewood (3/1 fav)
2011 – Beachfire (12/1)
2010 – Rainbow Peak (13/8 fav)
2009 – Perfect Stride (8/1)
2008 – Supaseus (12/1)
2007 – Championship Point (25/1)
2006 – I’m So Lucky (16/1)
2005 – Imperial Stride (25/1)
2004 – Red Fort (6/1)
2003 – In Time’s Eye (5/1)

Wolferton Rated Stakes Key Trends

14/18 – Had between 1 and 3 runs already that season
13/18 – Had won 3 or more races during their career
13/18 – Finished unplaced last time out
12/18 – Aged 4 years-old
12/18 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
11/18 – Unplaced favourites
10/18 – Had run at Ascot before
8/18 – Returned a double-figure price
7/18 – Ran at either York (4) or Goodwood (3) last time out
4/18 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of last 10)
3/18 – Trained at Kremlin House Stables (Roger Varian/M Jarvis)
2/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Winning favourites
11 of the last 15 winners returned 7/1 or bigger

TQ VERDICT: A very competitive handicap here, but with 12 of the last 18 winners aged 4 years-old, then a chance is taken on the Kevin Ryan-trained – JUAN ELCANO (e/w). This Frankel colt returned back in March with a fair run (6th) at Doncaster, but has since had a wind op, while the step up to 1m2f will help. Yes, he’s got a small bit to prove, but last season ran well at G2 level and was also 5th in the 2020 2000 Guineas, so this drop back to Listed grade looks well within range. The Joseph O’Brien runner – Patrick Sarsfield has the form to be bang there, while it was hard to not be taken by the manner of Blue Cup’s win at Epsom last time out (5 ½ lengths), albeit in a handicap. Solid Stone beaten Stormy Antarctic last time at Windsor over a mile and can go well too and the 8 year-old – Euchen Glen – continues to surprise during his later years with a top G3 win at Sandown last time, but you feel he’d be better if any significant rain came. The consistent Felix is worth a mention too, but with the Gosden yard having a decent record in this race, their FOREST OF DEAN (e/w) is the other pick. Frankie rides this 5 year-old, who has finished in the top three in 10 of his 15 career starts. He’s been freshened up for this after a spell on the AW during the winter and will love the ground.

6.10 - Copper Horse Handicap (4yo+) 1m6f ITV4

Just the one previous running
Trainer Roger Varian won this race in 2020
Jockey Andrea Atzeni won this race in 2020

TQ VERDICT: Just the one past running of this newer race at the Royal Ascot Meeting. The prize was won by the Roger Varian camp 12 months ago and they run Gold Maze here, but ran below par last time out and has a bit to answer. Global Storm, for Godolphin, won well at Newmarket last time out and a 4lb rise for that might not be enough to stop him running well again. Sleeping Lion is another recent winner to respect from the Roger Charlton yard, while On To Victory and Throne Hall can go well too. But it’s hard to get away from another Willie Mullins runner here in SALDIER, who bolted up at Listowel just 9 days ago. This 7 year-old is a useful hurdler that the jumping fans will know a lot about and being up just 4lbs for that recent win suggests he could still be well ahead of the handicapper. Ryan Moore, who often rides the best of the Mullins horses at this meeting, gets the call here. Of the rest, these longer Ascot races are also often targeted by trainer Mark Johnston too – he runs Hochfeld and THEMAXWECAN (e/w), who is the only course winner in the field. James Doyle catches the eye in the saddle and despite being turned over at odds-on last time at Ripon that came over 2m and the return to 1m6f here will help. The final one at a fair price that could run well is ARTHURIAN FABLE (e/w), for Brian Meehan. This 4 year-old will be much fitter for a recent run at Newmarket, when a close fourth on soft ground. The better conditions will help and he ran well at this meeting last season, when a close 5th (of 17) in the King George V Stakes, when not getting then best of runs either.

 

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