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20th October 2020

AINTREE Free Tips and Trends – DAY TWO (Fri 5th April 2019)

Into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 5th April 2019 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races.

The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, JLT Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are the three feature contests as the 'must-see' action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.

As always, here at TRAINERS-QUOTES we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

Let’s continue.......................


FRIDAY, 5th April 2019 (ITV/Racing TV)

2.20pm – Betway Top Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m110y ITV

2018 Winner: LALOR (14/1 odds)
Trainer: Kayley Woollacott
Jockey: Richard Johnson

15/16 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
10/16 – Finished first or second last time out
10/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/16 – Aged 5 years-old
8/16 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
7/16 – Had raced on the flat before
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/16 – Winning favourites
15 of the last 22 (68%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
21 of the last 28 (75%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
Just one Irish winner since 1978
9 of the last 19 (47%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

TQ VERDICT: The Olly Murphy-trained Itchy Feet sets the standard based on his decent third in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last time. Prior to that he’d run well in some decent novice hurdles so certainly looks a horse on the up – 50% of the last 16 winners took in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle that season. 15 of the last 16 winners had run within the last 31 days so that’s not great news for the Paul Nicholls-trained Southfield Stone, who we last saw beating Angels Breath at Kempton, but that form has taken a few knocks since. The main Irish challenge should come from the Elliott-trained Felix Desjy and Aramon, from the Mullins yard, but both are on recovery missions, so if lining-up are overlooked. This has, however, been a race the Henderson yard have a top record in – with successes in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2016 – so his PRECIOUS CARGO looks the most interesting. This 6 year-old is 2-from-2 since joining the Seven Barrows yard after wins at Kempton and Sandown, while with just five career wins should have more to come. He’s clearly a horse going in the right direction and with the yard’s top record in the race it’s clear they feel he’s up to the rise in grade. Of those at bigger prices the former useful flat horse – WINSTON C (e/w) – has done little wrong in winning his last three over hurdles and the last of those was made to look even better as he met a lot of trouble in-running. His proven flat speed will be an asset, so he looks the each-way value in the race.

2.50pm – Betway Mildmay Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 3m1f ITV

2018 Winner: TERREFORT (3/1 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Daryl Jacob

16/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
16/16 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
13/16 – Aged 7 or younger
13/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/16 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
12/16 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
7/16 – Ran in the RSA Chase last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including last 2)
2/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Irish trained winners
5 of the last 6 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
29 of the last 30 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
24 of the last 28 winners had won over at least 3m before
34 of the last 38 (89%) winners had won twice or more over fences
14 of the last 17 (82%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989

TQ VERDICT: Lostintranslation can go well after running second in the JLT Novices’ Chase at the Festival. He’s yet to finish out of the top three from five career runs over fences, but does only have the one win over the bigger obstacles. A bold bid expected, but the ratings suggest he’s got 6lbs to find with the Paul Nicholls-trained TOPOFTHEGAME, who was a gutsy winner of the RSA Chase at the Festival last time. This 7 year-old ticks most of the main stats and with just four career runs should still have more in the locker. He showed real guts to get the job done last time with his main rivals – Santini and Delta Work – both in the mix jumping the last too, but this slightly longer trip will suit, while there shouldn’t be any issues about the flatter track. Of the rest, Drovers Lane, Mr Whipped & Top Ville Ben, who fell in the RSA Chase, but has since bounced back with a smooth win are others to note. However, in a race that lacks much depth this looks set to be a shootout between the first two in the betting and it’s hard to see beyond Topofthegame living up to his name.

3.25pm – JLT Melling Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f ITV

201 Winner: POLITOLOGUE (11/1)
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies

16/16 – Raced within the last 30 days
16/16 – Ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
15/16 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
13/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Aged 9 or younger
10/16 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/16 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Irish-trained winners
6/16 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
4/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/16 – Trained by Alan King
No winners have been beaten in a previous running of the race
21 of the last 28 (75%) runners had won over at least 2m4f
30 of the last 33 (91%) winners were aged 7 or older
13 of the last 24 (54%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
15 of the last 24 (63%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
19 of the last 28 (68%) winners had been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
12 of the last 15 (80%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
26 of the last 28 (93%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season

TQ VERDICT: Hell’s Kitchen ran well to be fourth in the Champion Chase and he had Min a place back in fifth that day, but over this longer trip then I expect Min to turn the tables at least. Min was runner-up in this race 12 months ago and can be expected to go well again, but it was POLITOLOGUE that won the day 12 months ago and is taken to successfully defend his crown. He ran a cracker in the Champion Chase last time too to be second and on that running heads here as the one for the others to aim at. Waiting Patiently could be the fly in the ointment and Aintree looks the ideal track for this strong-traveller. However, he was firmly put in his place by another Nicholls runner – Cyrname – at Ascot last time so the Ditcheat camp should have a good line on how they stand with him with regards to Politologue. Of the rest, the 2016 winner of this race Gods Own can’t be totally ruled out despite being 11 now and pulled up last time, while the versatile Top Notch certainly has the from to make his presence felt but needs to bounce back from a poor run in the Stayers’ Hurdle last time. However, with only seven runners means this isn’t the best race for each-way players.

4.05pm – Randox Health Topham Chase Handicap (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

2018 Winner: ULTRAGOLD (14/1 odds)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Harry Cobden

15/16 – Raced within the last 34 days
15/16 – Aged 10 or younger
13/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/16 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
10/16 – Raced within the last 23 days
10/16 – Unplaced last time out
4/16 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
2/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
The last 5 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 13 (62%) winners raced in last year’s race
10 of the last 13 (77%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
10 of the last 15 (67%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
14 of the last 26 (54%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 2 Irish-trained winners since 1979
No British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just one winner aged 11+ (109 have tried) since 1994

TQ VERDICT: A race some of those that didn’t make the cut for the National will run in, but unlike Saturday’s race this contest is over a much shorter trip (2m5f). We are still over the National-style fences though so any previous experience on that front is a plus – 10 of the last 15 winners had run over these fences in the past. Other key trends to not are that 15 of the last 16 winners ran within the last 34 days and were also aged 10 or younger. It’s also been a good race for the Colin Tizzard, Peter Bowen and Nicky Henderson yards – they’ve mopped-up a massive 8 of the last 9 runnings! All three yards should be respected – Bowen has More Bucks and Henryville, while Henderson has Janika, Kilcrea Vale, O O Seven, Divine Spear. But the Henderson-trained Janika is sure to be one of the popular ones after a close second at Cheltenham last time out in the Brown Advisory Chase – he was staying on well over 2m4f that day so the extra furlong or so will help a lot. Former King George runner-up Double Shuffle is another that could go well if taking to the fences. He’ll find this easier than the Gold Cup last time (pulled up), but prior to that had run well at Kempton and was also second at this meeting last season in the Grade Two Many Clouds Chase. San Benedeto was a good winner of the Greatwood Gold Cup last time but a 7lb rise makes life harder. Nicholls also has Adrien Du Pont in the race. However, the three I like against the field here are BALLYHILL (e/w), FLYING ANGEL (e/w) and O O SEVEN (e/w). All three have a fair few positive trends on their side too. The last-named is trained by Henderson too and was fourth in this race back in 2017 – he’s a pound lower this time. The other two – Flying Angel and Ballyhill – both come from the in-form Nigel Twiston-Davies yard. Flying Angel gets in with just 10-6 in weight and was a good winner at the track (non National fences) in December so we know it suits and has been running a lot better than this actual form figures indicate – a recent 7l fifth in the Ultima Chase should have him spot-on for this. Ballyhill also gets in with only 10-6 and it’s interesting that jockey Sam Twiston-Davies is doing the weight. He’s finished in the top three in all his last five starts and will find this a lot easier than the Grade Two Denman Chase last time.

4.40pm – Doom Bar Sefton Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m110y ITV

2018 Winner: SANTINI (6/4 fav odds)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico De Boinville

14/16 – Had run within the last 35 days
12/16 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
10/16 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
7/16 – Won their last race
4/16 – Favourites that won
2/16 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/16 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (92%)
21 of the last 24 (88%) won at least twice over hurdles before
20 of the last 26 (77%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
13 of the last 25 (52%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
13 of the last 19 (68%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

TQ VERDICT: Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle runner-up – Champ – will be all the rage here after another solid run there at the Cheltenham Festival. It’s hard to ignore his chance, but with 12 of the last 16 winners aged 6 or younger then this Nicky Henderson-trained 7 year-old has this trend to overcome, while this step up to 3m is a slight unknown. We’ve another Cheltenham Festival runner-up in the race – Dallas Des Pictons – too – he was second in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ race on the final day. That form makes him a big player too so he’s sure to be involved, having also already won over this trip. Lisnagar Oscar was fifth in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival, but to me he looks more of a chaser in the making already and on this flatter track might just get found out. So, it might be worth taking a chance on the Warren Greatrex-trained EMITOM. This 5 year-old has won all three of his hurdles starts to-date and even though this is a big step up in class and in trip, he should be fresher than more having missed Cheltenham. He also ticks the top four trends that we’ve listed above. Of the rest, the Henderson other runner – Downtown Getaway and the Paul Nicholls-trained Trevelyn’s Corn should have more to offer and it’s interesting that these big yards are pitching them in at this higher level already.


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