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26th September 2020

Doncaster TV Trends and Free Tips: Weds 9th Sept 2020

The ITV cameras head to Doncaster racecourse in the middle of September (9th-14th) for the 4-day St Leger Meeting – they will be covering races on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with races spread across both ITV and ITV3.

As always - here at TQ - we’ve got it all covered with all the TV race trends and stats – these should help narrow down the fields and also highlight the best profiles of horses that have done well in the races in the past.

Wednesday 9th September 2020

 

1.40 – bet365 Nursery Handicap Cl2 (2yo) 7f ITV3

10/10 – Ran in the last 8 weeks
9/10 – Won between 0-1 times before
8/10 – Carried 9-4 or less
8/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Won over 6f or 7f before
7/10 – Rated between 78-85 (inc)
7/10 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
6/10 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
4/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Richard Fahey
1/10 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

Some nice 2 year-olds on show here, but it’s a race the Richard Fahey yard have targeted in recent years (winning 2 of the last 4), so their GUMDROP gets the call. This juvenile broke his duck with an easy win at Chester on his third race last month and could have more to come. The step up from 6f to 7f should be within range based on that last run and despite a 9lb rise in the ratings also ticks a lot of the main trends – like draw (6) and being rated between 78-85 – he’s rated 84. The Hannon runner – Concessions – showed promise in her first few races but ran well below par last time with the vet reporting an irregular heartbeat after the race – that would, of course, be a concern. Of the rest, the William Haggas (29%) and the Saeed Bin Suroor (21%) yards have good records with their 2 year-olds at the track so their runners – Mayaas and Al Watan – are others to note, while Ataser, Twilight Song and Party Game are the other ‘last time out’ winners in the field that have to command respect too.

2.10 – bet365 Scarbrough Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (2yo+) 5f ITV3

18/18 – Had won over 5f or 6f before
16/18 – Didn’t win last time out
16/18  - Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Drawn in stalls 8 or lower
15/18 – Had won over 5f before
13/18 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
13/18 – Winning distance 1 length or less
11/18 – Drawn in stalls 4 to 8 (inc)
10/18 – Had run at Doncaster before
10/18 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
9/18 – Had won 5 or more times before
9/18 – Had 6 or more runs that season
9/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
5/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Trained by Robert Cowell
3/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/18 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/18 – Won by previous winners of the race
2/18 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
The average price of the winner in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
Note: the 2006 renewal was staged at York

With 16 of the last 18 winners drawn in stalls 8 or lower that’s good news for most of the runners with only Makanah, who is drawn 9, the one that falls outside that trend. With 11 of the last 8 winners coming from stalls 4-8 though this stat can be taken a bit further – the ones that tick this trend are MOSS GILL, DAKOTA GOLD, ACKLAM EXPRESS, TARBOOSH and COUNTRY CARNIVAL. Of that lot, the Nigel Tinkler runner – Acklam Express – will be popular after three wins on the bounce, including a narrow success in a Listed race last time out. Tarboosh and Moss Gill are CD winners at the track and should go well too. Dakota Gold rarely runs a bad race and has to go well too – but has had a busy spell of late and that would be a concern. Frankie Dettori booked to ride Urban Beat is sure to attract attention too. This Johnny Murtagh-trained runner was a close second in a Listed race at Navan last time and handles the soft ground well. However, a chance is taken on the James Tate runner – WISE WORDS. Yes, this 4 year-old filly returns from a year off, but has gone well off a break in the past, while the yard boast an impressive 38% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track. She’s also 2-from-4 on the turf and has only been unplaced once from those runs on the grass too.

 

2.40 – Mondialiste Leger Legends Classified Stakes Cl5 (3yo+ 0-70) 1m ITV3

10/10 – Returned 12/1 or shorter
10/10 – Rated 69 (2) or 70 (8)
9/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/10 – Won between 1-4 times
8/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/10 – Won over 1m before
6/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Had run at the track before
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

A tough race to call with a lot of out-of-form runners in the line-up. Hammer Gun is the only course winner in the field so that has to be a plus, but with Frankie booked to ride the Ed Dunlop runner – ROCA MAGICA, this one gets the call. The yard has a cracking 32% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track so that’s the first plus, while this horse at least comes into the race with a bit of good recent form under her belt. She’s won 2 of her last 4 races and after getting a bit put-paced over 7f last time (stayed on well), the step up to 1m here will be in her favour. The Jim Goldie yard are only 2-from-45 (2%) so their Tommy G has that stat to overcome. One Step Beyond, Late Arrival and Lexington Warfare are others to consider as they head here after fair recent runs, but of the rest a chance is taken on the David O’Meara runner – COURTSIDE (e/w). The yard would love to win this race as it’s named in honour of their globe-trotting Mondialiste. Courtside does have a bit to prove at the moment after some average runs, but the drop back in trip looks a plus and he’s also 6lbs lower than when returning back in August. He’s also only had two runs from a 485-day break so would have needed those recent outings to blow away the cobwebs and having been rated as high as 81 a few years ago is looking well-treated off a mark of 69. The final thing to note it the Richard Fahey yard won this 12 months ago and goes into battle again with – Lexington Warfare and Defence Treaty.

 

3.15 – bet365 Sceptre Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 7f ITV3

15/17 – Never raced at Doncaster before
13/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/17 – Won between 1-3 times before
11/17 – Drawn in stalls 3-7 (inc)
10/17 – Had won over 7f before
9/17 – Came from the top three in the betting
8/17 – Placed favourites
8/17 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
7/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won by the Hills stable
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 - Ridden by Jamie Spener
2/17 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/17 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of last 5 runnings)
2/17 – Irish-trained winners
0/17 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1

A big field of 15 runners head to post here, but there are some nice trends to look out for. 13 of the last 17 winners had raced in the last six weeks, while 11 of the last 17 came from stalls 3-7 (inc) – INVITATIONAL, JUBILOSO, LYZBETH, DANCING VEGA and STORMY GIRL are the one that tick the draw trend. Of those five runners the ones that I’ll be playing are INVITATIONAL (e/w) and JUBILOSO. The first-named hails from the Roger Varian yard, that have won this race twice in the last 5 years, and should be coming to the boil now after two runs back since January. She was 6th of 12 last time out at Goodwood in the G3 Oak Tree Stakes and even though another runner – Althiqa – was three places ahead of her, I think the form can be reversed. This 4 year-old should be a lot fitter this time and has also had plenty of time to get over that last race – the Roger Varian yard also have a decent 32% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track. The other pick – Jubiloso – also comes from a yard that have a good record at the track (33%) with their older horses. Yes, she flopped last time out at Ascot, when favourite for the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes, but that came off a long break and is clearly better than that. She’s the top-rated in this field still (108), while connections gave her 3 months off after that Royal Ascot run to freshen up. Of the rest, the ratings suggest the William Haggas runner – Mubtasimah – can go well, as can the already mentioned Godolphin entry – Althiqa – and the very consistent Cloak Of Spirits, who has been placed four times in Group races, but yet to win one.

 

3.45 – Each Way Extra At bet365 Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m2f ITV3

9/10 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Won between 2-4 times before
9/10 – Irish (6) or GB (3) bred
8/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Rated between 91 and 98
8/10 – Won over 1m2f before
7/10 – Drawn in stalls 5 or lower
7/10 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
6/10 – Ran at Newmarket (2), York (2) or Goodwood (2) last time out
4/10 – Had run at Doncaster before
3/10 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/10 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/10 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/10 – Trained by David Simcock
2/10 – Won last time out
1/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

With 8 of the 10 winners aged 3 or 4 years-old then this is the first key trend to note, while it could pay to note that 7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 5 or lower – those drawn low are PIVOINE, MAYFAIR SPIRIT, FOX POWER, DUBAI HORIZON and HYPOTHETICAL. Data Protection has won two of his last three and should make a bold bid off a 4lb higher rating than last time – he’s the only recent winner in the field. But the two I like here are MAYFAIR SPIRIT (e/w) and DEREVO. The last-named has been running well in defeat this season and the handicapper has finally dropped him a pound. He acts well on most ground and has won over this trip too, while the Stoute yard have a standout 33% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track. The other pick – Mayfair Spirit – also comes from a yard that does well here with its older horses – Charlie Fellowes. They boast a 33% record with their 4+ year-olds and with 5 wins from 10 starts on the turf he’s a horse that knows how to get the job done. He didn’t get the clearest of runs too last time out at Newmarket (4th) and even though he stays further than this trip, the drop back to 1m2f here will be fine – his record over this distance reads 1-1-3-1-4.

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