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10th December 2022

Free Horse Racing Tips and Stats: Sat 2nd March 2022

A busy day for the ITV cameras this Saturday as they head to Ayr to cover their Scottish Grand National card, plus they are also at Newbury to take in three more jumps races.

Here at TQ, we are on hand with the key trends and top tips for all the LIVE ITV races.


AYR HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

1.15 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m ITV

17/17 – Had won over at least 2m (chase) before
15/17 – Aged 9 or younger
15/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Had won between 2-4 times (chase) before
15/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/17 – Rated between 127-139
12/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/17 – Finished in the top four last time out
11/17 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
11/17 – French bred
11/17 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
9/17 – Had run at Ayr before
4/17 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 4 years)
2/17 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

TQ VERDICT: Course winners Dubai Days and Return Ticket are respected, but it’s another past course winner here (hurdles) - SEBASTOPOL - that gets the nod. This Tom Lacey runner was a nice winner at Kempton 2 weeks ago - beating Golden Boy Grey that day and with the runner-up coming out to win since the form has been given a big boost. Of the rest, the Gordon Elliott runner Coach Carter is sure to attract interest, while Malystic has a chance if you can forgive a recent unseat. But with a 38% record with his chasers at the track, the Dan Skelton runner - HATCHER (e/w) - is worth a small interest too. This 9 year-old should be better for a recent run at Sandown (unseated) while the drying ground can also help with his best form coming on sounder surfaces. The yard also have a 38% record with their chasers here.

1.50 – CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m ITV

 

10/10 – Aged 9 or younger
10/10 – No more than 3 chase wins
9/10 – French (3) or Irish (6) bred
8/10 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/10 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
6/10 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Had run at the track before
2/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

TQ VERDICT: Sounds Russian draws the eye after three straight wins and must go well again, while the consistent Doyen Breed is another to note is also a past course winner. Cases can also be made for Striking A Pose and Lord Accord, but I’m happy to side with recent Cheltenham fifth - DUSART - and another Skelton runner - SAIL AWAY (e/w). The former was only 14 lengths off the classy L’Homme Presse in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase last time out and prior to that has won well at Leicester and Exeter. He beat the other pick - Sail Away - by 5 lengths back in January too and with just three career runs this Nicky Henderson runner should have more to come. Sail Away, represents the Skelton yard that won this in 2019 and even though he’s got 5lbs to find with Dusart on it’s run at Leicester in Jan, that was his first off a wind op and he’s been kept fresh for this too. The Skelton yard also have a decent 38% record with their chasers at the track.

 

2.25 – Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl2 2m ITV

18/18 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
16/18 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
15/18 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
15/18 – Aged 7 or younger
14/18 – Carried 10-13 or less
14/18 – Had won between 2-4 times over hurdles before
13/18 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Rated 137 or higher
10/18 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/18 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/18 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
9/18 – Irish bred
6/18 – Ran at Aintree last time out
5/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Winning favourites (joint)
3/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
1/18 – Irish-trained winners
Milkwood (3/1 fav) won the race in 2021
4 of the last 8 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1

TQ VERDICT: West Cork was a fine fourth in the County Hurdle last time out and can go well again here, while Onemorefortheroad was last seen running fourth in the Imperial Cup at Sandown off a 3 month break and is another for the shortlist. Barrichello has improved well this season too and has won 4 of his last 5 starts - he cold be dangerous off just 10-8. But the two to side with here are MILKWOOD, who won this race last year and the lightly-weighted mare - ANNA BUNINA (e/w). The former is the top-rated in the field at 150 but was a smooth winner of this contest 12 months ago and with only two runs since has clearly had this as a target again. He’s rated 8lbs higher this time, but had 3 ¾ lengths to spare over Anna Bunina - the other pick. Anna Bunina, can run well again too though - second in the race last year - and despite running third to another runner here - Socialist Agenda - at Musselburgh in Feb, she was giving that one 15lbs. They meet here on level terms.

 

3.00 – Jordan Electrics Ltd Future Champion Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 2m4f110y ITV

18/18 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
18/18 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
17/18 – Aged 8 or younger
17/18 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences before
17/18 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
9/18 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
9/18 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
6/18 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
6/18 – Raced at Aintree last time out
5/18 – Had raced at Ayr before
5/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/18 – Trained by Nicky Richards
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/4

TQ VERDICT: Just the five runners here and a case can be made for them all on old form. That said, Minella Drama Kiltealy Briggs and Il Ridoto all have a bit to prove based on recent runs so the only two recent winners in the field - Jacamar and DO YOUR JOB - look the ones to rely on. The former was a nice winner at Leicester last time out and looks worth a crack in this better race. But he does have a small did to find on these terms at the weights. Do Your Job on the other hand is the second top-rated in the field (144) but gets a handy 5lbs from Minella Drama (top rated) here. This Michael Scudamore runner has won 2 of his 5 starts over fences, including last time at Newcastle. Earlier in the season he also ran the since Arkle winner - Edwardstone - to 10 lengths and the form of that run has seen been give a shot in the arm. Add in that he’s the only proven course winner here at Ayr, then that’s the icing on the cake.


3.35 – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 4m110y ITV

18/18 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
16/18 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
16/18 – Aged 8 or older
14/18 – French or Irish bred
14/18 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
13/18 – Carried 10-9 or less
13/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/18 – Finished in the first three last time out
13/18 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
12/18 – Had won over 3m or further
12/18 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
11/18 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
7/18 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
3/18 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
2/18 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 5 winners)
1/18 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 9 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 20/1

TQ VERDICT: The Christian Williams runner - Kitty’s Light - has been popular for this race in recent weeks, but with just one winning favourite in the last 18 years, plus 16 of the last 18 winners were aged 8 or older so this 6 year-old has these trends against him too. On a plus, he does have time on his side and was a good second in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown over 3m6f last season so this 4m trip looks sure to suit. But he’s certainly poor value in a race with 30 other runners in. The Irish yard of Peter Fahey send over two live chances in Stormy Judge and History Of Fashion, while with a 38% record with his chasers here, the Dan Skelton-trained Ashtown Lad has to be respected. The course winners in the field are Cool Mix, who was 5th in the race last year, One More Fleurie, Strong Economy and Streets Of Doyen. The Christian Williams yard also have Win My Wings in the race and he looks to have a big chance too. He was last seen winning the Eider Chase at Newcastle over 4m1f so the trip here is fine. He's up another 8lbs though in the ratings so more on his plate, but it’s interesting that connections are offsetting most of that by booking jockey Rob James to claim 7lbs. That will help, but maybe connections are also worried a bit about the big weight (11-5). Fantastikas, Major Dundee, The Wolf and Ask A Honey Bee are all contenders too that can go well. But I’m happy to side with two horses that ran well in this race last season - THE FERRY MASTER (e/w) and COOL MIX (e/w). The former was fourth 12 months ago in the race but gets in there on a 5lb lower mark. He’s also had a wind op since his last run and should be much better for that last outing as it came off a 2 month break. Cool Mix, who was fifth last year, is also returning on a lower mark - 6lbs. He’s a proven course winner but it’s also interesting that connections are putting the tongue-tie on for the first time and have also booked the useful Alan Doyle to claim a further 7lbs - meaning he’s actually 12lbs lower than when being beaten just 8 ¼ lengths in the race last year. Of those at bigger prices, the hat-trick seeking Via Dolorosa, the Brian Hughes-ridden Innisfree Lad, while if staying the longer trip another Sandy Thomson runner - Hill Sixteen - could go well at a price.

 

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

 

1:35 - Play Pick 6 At BetVictor Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3f ITV

1 previous run
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2021
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 29% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Philip Hobbs has a 20% record with his hurdlers at the track

TQ VERDICT: Just the one last running - trainer Paul Nicholls won this 12 months ago and tries again with Rainyday Woman, but was pulled up the last day at Lingfield, albeit on heavy ground, so needs to bounce back. Punctuation is a past course winner and head here improving having won his last two in good fashion - certainly one for the shortlist. But the two that I’ll be supporting here at ROYAUME UNI and MISTER MARBLES. The former comes from the Gary Moore yard and was a nice winner at Fontwell last month by 7 lengths. He’s up just 6lbs for that but prior to that run was a fair 8th (not beaten far) in the Betfair Hurdle here - with a bit of improvement from that run he can go well. Mister Marbles comes from the Philip Hobbs yard that boasts a decent 20% record with their hurdlers at the course. This 6 year-old was a nice winner at Taunton last time out in a maiden hurdle and despite this being harder and a step up looks to have got into his handicap hurdles debut on a fair mark (114).

2:10 - Download The BetVictor App Conditional Jockeys' Veterans' Handicap Chase Cl2 (9yo+) 2m7½f ITV

1 previous run
Trainer Rebecca Curtis won the race in 2021
Trainer David Dennis has a 29% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Venetia Williams has a 28% record with her chasers at the track
Trainer Richard Hobson has a 25% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Warren Greatrex has a 21% record with his chasers at the track

TQ VERDICT: Some old faces on show here for this Vets race. Indy Five is the only CD winner in the field so has to be respected, having won well here last time. Is up 8lbs for that win and the Dennis yard have a nice 29% record with their chasers here. But the Venetia Williams stable also do well here (28%) so their FIRST FIGARO looks interesting. This 12 year-old has won his last two at Donny and Leicester - both for today’s jockey, Ned Fox, who can claim 8lbs here. For his age he’s lightly-raced over fences (10 runs) but has been in the top three in those races 7 times. La Cavsa Nostra is another recent winner that can go well, while Psychedelic Rock has place claims if building on a last time out fourth at Musselburgh. But the other pick is the consistent NO COMMENT. This Philip Hobbs runner has 5 lengths to find with Indy Five on their recent runs at Donny, but is 6lbs better off this time. He’s also been freshened up with 4 months off and won’t mind it if the ground dries out.

2:45 - British EBF BetVictor "NH" Novices' Mares' Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) (Series Final) (GBB) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4½f ITV

8/9 - Aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/9 - Won 1-2 times before
8/9 - Had not run at Newbury before
8/9 - Carried 11-2 or less in weight
7/9 - Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/9 - Had won over 2m4f or further before
7/9 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
5/9 - Aged 5 years-old
5/9 - Ran at Doncaster (3) or Exeter (2) last time outs
5/9 - Placed favourites
5/9 - Irish bred winners
4/9 - Won last time out
4/9 - winning favourites
2/9 - Trained by Charlie Longsdon
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1

Note: 2013 running was staged at Kempton

TQ VERDICT: 8 of the last 9 winners have been aged 5 or 6 years-old, so this is bad news for the 7 year-olds in the race - Lady Tremaine, Largy G, Speech Bubble and Sabrina, the last two-named are both well-fancied in the betting too. Nina The Terrier, Good Luck Charm , Holly Hartingo and Runwiththetide have claims, but I’m happy to side with COREY’S COURAGE and take a chance on the Nicky Henderson runner - TWEED SKIRT (e/w). The former is yet to lose a race - winning all four (3 over hurdles) and despite looking a bit raw in her races is still getting the job done. Could be anything and regular jockey - Aidan Colman - rides. The other pick - Tweed Skirt - has a bit to prove - after last running down the field in the Mares Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival. But that was a hot race. The fact she was deemed good enough to run in it was a good sign though and now into a limited handicap it would be no shock if she improved on that effort.

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