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25th September 2020

Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: Sat 11th Jan 2020

 

  • KEMPTON: Hot Trends and Tips for Lanzarote Hurdle…………
  • WARWICK: Classic Chase The Feature…………
  • TRAINERS-QUOTES: Moore Starts New Year In-form…………

Hi,

This Saturday the ITV Racing team head to Warwick and Kempton to take in seven races across the two venues – with the Lanzarote Hurdle (2.40, Kempton) and the Classic Chase (3.00, Warwick) as the day’s two feature contests.

With 11 of the last 14 Classic Chase winners carrying 11st 2lbs or less and also coming from outside the top three in the market, then these key trends are worth noting – we take a look at the race in more detail below.

While, the Unibet Lanzarote Hurdle has seen 16 of the last 18 winners aged 7 or younger and have raced in the last seven weeks. Also look for horses that have won exactly twice before over hurdles – 14 of the last 18 winners ticked this particular trend.

As always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all the key trends for the LIVE ITV races.

Enjoy!

Have a Great Weekend

 

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MORE TQ VIEW SUCCESS IN NEW YEAR – It’s been a good start to the New Year for a lot of the yards and also the TQ View picks with HIGH UP IN THE AIR (1st 9/2) and AGENT OF FORTUNE (1st 15/8) winning well for the Gary Moore yard. This takes the total points won since 1st Jan 2019 to a cracking +101pts!

TQ HORSE TO NOTE……………………………….. The Charlie Fellowes yard don’t have many first-time out winners, so when one of theirs – BLOW YOUR HORN – ran a close second at Newcastle on Wednesday then we should take note. The horse that beat Charlie’s looks above average but also had the benefit of a previous runs. Having spoken to Charlie the following morning, they were more than happy with that run and feel this is a horse that should be noted going forward – he added “we think he is pretty nice!” Therefore, with that run under it’s belt there should be some significant improve to come next time so this is certainly one that’s going in the horse-tracker!

 

USE THE TQ INFO TO BACK OR LAY - Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

 

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SATURDAY LIVE ITV RACING FREE TIPS AND TRENDS


Impulsive Star (right) winning the 2019 Classic Chase

 

KEMPTON: Hot Trends and Tips For Lanzarote Hurdle……..

Kempton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.05 – Unibet Silviniaco Conti Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Placed 2nd or 3rd last time out
5/6 – Didn’t win last time out
5/6 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
5/6 – Had won at least 4 times over fences
5/6 – Winning favourites
5/6 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
3/6 – Had won over fences at the track
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 5/2
Top Notch won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2019, 2017 & 2016
Trainer Alan King won the race in 2015
Trainer Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014
Nicky Henderson has a 37% record with his chasers at the track
Paul Nicholls has a 24% record with his chasers at the track

 

TQ VERDICT: Frodon is the top-rated in the field so has to be respected but there are reports that he’s still not firing on all cylinders, while his two runs this season have been well below average. For me, he’s certainly got the ability to win this race, but I’d just like to see some old sparkle back on the track – you never know, with 33 career runs already at the age of 8 then there is a small question that’s he’s had enough – hopefully not. If running, the likes of Keeper Hill, Born Survivor and Kauto Riko, who ran Top Notch to ¾ of a length last time, are all closely-matched based on the ratings, but should be fighting it out for places as the Henderson-trained TOP NOTCH should be hard to beat. He landed this race 12 months ago too and has returned this season better than ever with two wins (hurdles and fences), including last time out in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon. Yes, a case can be made for Kauto Riko, who doesn’t have much ground to make up on the pick, but I’ll stick with last year’s winner of this race to uphold that form.

 

2.40 – Unibet Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

18/18 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
16/18 – Aged 7 or younger
16/18 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
14/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had won exactly 2 times over hurdles before
13/18 – Had never won a hurdles race over 2m4f or longer before
13/18 – Winning distance 3 lengths or less
13/18 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
12/18 – Irish (7) or French (5) bred
12/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/18 – Carried 10-11 or less
11/18 – Aged 6 years-old
9/18 – Placed favourites
8/18 – Won last time out
6/18 – Had run at Kempton before (5 won)
5/18 -  Winning favourites
3/18 – Trained by Nick Williams
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (38 runnings) 33 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1

TQ VERDICT: Another top renewal of this Listed Handicap Hurdle and a race with many chances. The first thing to note here is that his race has been won by a claiming jockey in 5 of the last 6 years – with that in mind – Theinval & Burrows Park are the two runners in the race that will be trying to uphold this trend. The Olly Murphy-trained Notre Pari has been popular in the betting all week and has certainly caught the eye this season – he improved for the step up trip last time out at Aintree and looks the sort to have more to come. Trainer Nicky Henderson likes to target the race so his Burrows Edge and Theinval are others to note, but both need to bounce back from falling and being pulled up last time. The consistent Larkbarrow Lad is another that is sure to be popular, while Burrows Park and Vive Le Roi (also entered 3.35 Warwick) are two others to note in the betting. However, with 11 of the last 18 winners aged 6 years-old then I’m going to focus on this age group. We’ve only Vinnie Day, Eragon De Chanay, Echiquier, Northofthewall and Tight Call as the 6 year-olds in the race. Any rain would be a plus for Northofthewall after a good win in heavy ground last time – but is up 4lbs for that, plus raised in trip and also in a much better race so has some questions to answer. So, I’ll take a chance with TIGHT CALL (e/w) and ECHIQUIER (e/w). The former hails from the Tim Vaughan yard, who are having a decent season, and with only 10-5 in weight looks interesting. He returns from a break but has gone well off a lay-off in the past and will love the ground – as long as there is not much more rain, as his better form is on a sounder surface. Then Echiquier could go well too. He’s had a few excuses the last few runs – running over a trip too far for him and also tackling heavy ground last time. He ran well at Chepstow in October – only beaten 9 lengths behind the useful Thyme Hill so does have the form to have a say. He’s down to a mark of 130 too and that looks workable.

 

3.15 – Try Unibet New Uniboosts Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV4

Just 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Had run at the track before
6/7 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
6/7 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
5/7 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
5/7 – Unplaced last time out
5/7 – Carried 11-0 or more
5/7 – Placed favourites
4/7 – Had won over 3m (fences) before
4/7 - Won between 2-4 times (fences) before
2/7 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 is 9/2
Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014 & 2016

TQ VERDICT: On The Blind Side hasn’t really progressed as many thought, but did show an improved run last time out to be second at Ascot and now into handicap company would be dangerous to rule out if running. It’s a race the Philip Hobbs yard have a good recent record in so their War Sound, despite the age of 11 now, has to enter the mix if making the final runners. The consistent Fingerontheswitch can go well but just doesn’t win enough for me. Walt, Calipto, Cobra De Mai are others to consider, but the call here is TOUCH KICK. This Paul Nicholls runner ran a fair 6th of 14 over the National fences in the Grand Sefton last time out but will be much more at home now back up to 3m – that 2m5f trip was probably a tad on the sharp side. He’s won over this trip in the past, including two runs ago at Fakenham and is only 6lbs higher here. He’s a horse that acts well on all ground so that’s a plus and has been kept fresh with a 35-day break – jockey Harry Cobden is back riding him too and his record on the horse reads an impressive 4-2-1-2-1-PU-1.

 


WARWICK: Classic Chase The Feature…………………

 

1.50 – McCoy Contractors 2020 Construction News Award Finalist Hampton Novices´ Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV4

12/12 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
12/12 – Had won between 0-2 times over fences
12/12 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/12 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
10/12 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
10/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/12 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
8/12 – Aged 7 years-old
8/12 – Had won over 3m (or further) chase
8/12 – Won last time out
7/12 – Returned 9/4 or shorter in the betting
7/12 – Irish bred
2/12 – Trained by Alan King
2/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/12 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/12 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 11/4

TQ VERDICT: Some promising sorts on show here - Highest Sunwill be all the rage if lining-up for the Colin Tizzard yard after winning well at Plumpton last month. He handles soft/heavy ground well and looks the sort to have more to come. ARDLETHEN is another for the shortlist based on running the classy Sam Spinner to 4 lengths at Wetherby in November. The Skelton yard have given him a small break over Christmas and that should help – he won first time out this season. Two For Gold is another to note after winning both his starts over fences. However, he jumped a bit right-handed the last day at Kelso so around this left-handed track that’s not going to help. He got away with it last time from the front and might do again, but in this better race he might not be able to afford to give ground away to classier rivals – we’ll see. Of the rest, course winners Bobo Mac and Whatmore enter the picture if running, while The Conditional ran a cracker last time out (2nd) in the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Hennessy) at Newbury and would also be a big player if running – but also holds an entry in the Classic Chase (3pm).

 

 

2.25 – Ballymore Leamington Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m5f ITV4

13/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/13 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
13/13 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
13/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/13 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/13 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
9/13 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
9/13 – Irish bred
8/13 – Won last time out
6/13 – Winning favourites
6/13 – Placed favourites
6/13 – Aged 5 years-old
2/13 – Trained by Dan Skelton (2 of the last 5)
2/13 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (No Refuge, 2005 RSA Novices’ Hurdle, The New One, 2013 Neptune)
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 10/3

TQ VERDICT: Having won two of the last five runnings, then I’m going to stick with trainer Dan Skelton here – he runs SHAN BLUE. This 6 year-old was a nice winner at Southwell last time out and if building on that in this better race might be hard to beat. He’s a strong-travelling sort and has shown that he can run well on all ground. Décor Irlandais is the top-rated in the field and also one of the more experienced with 8 runs under runs and 11-point outings. He was a nice winner at Catterick last time out and should also be in the mix. Mossy Fen can’t be ruled out either, while if running then Harry Senior, who won well at Chepstow last time, Keen On, Tea Clipper andKiltealy Briggs are all others that have shown good form to date to suggest they can enter the shake-up if making the final line-up.

 

 

3.00 – McCoy Constructors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m5f ITV4

14/14 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/14 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/14 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m
11/14 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
11/14 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
10/14 – Officially rated between 129-140
10/14 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
9/14 –  Won by a horse aged 9 or older
9/14 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
9/14 – Won by an Irish bred horse
8/14 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
8/14 – Had raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously
8/14 –  Placed in the top 3 in their last race
7/14 – Favourites placed
7/14 – Returned a double-figure price
6/14 – Had run at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
5/14 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (One For Arthur won both races in 2017)
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/14 – Won their last race
2/14 – Trained by Alan King
Impulsive Star (8/1) won the race in 2019
Milansbar (12/1) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 11/1

TQ VERDICT: The 10 year-old IMPULSIVE STAR (e/w) won this race last year and off just 4lbs higher has to enter the mix with the first-time blinkers on. He should be much fitter for a recent run. and this would have been a target all season – his regular rider, Sam Waley-Cohen, goes the steering. Other proven stayers over this trip are Mysteree and Goodnight Charlie. Cheltenham Festival winner – Le Breuil – is a proven course winner and it’s interesting that connections put a 7lb claimer on to help with the 11-12 weight, but you just wonder if Cheltenham is this ones main target again. Bobo Mac and Kimberlite Candy have to be considered too, as well as Darlac and the consistent Petite Power, but despite being the likely favourite I was really taken by the way THE CONDITIONAL ran in the Ladbrokes Trophy at the end of November and looks a staying chaser on the up. Yes, he’s 5lbs higher here and has a lot more weight to carry in this lesser graded race but this 8 year-old was only beaten 1 ½ lengths at the line in that decent Newbury handicap. Connections are clearly taking their time with him and around 6 weeks off would have him fresh and well ready for this. The extra trip is a slight unknown, but he stayed on well over 3m2f last time to suggest it’s within range.

 

3.35 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 3m1f ITV4

14/14 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
13/14 – Had won between 1-4 times over hurdles before
12/14 – Carried 11-0 or less
12/14 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/14 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
10/14 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
11/14 – Had never raced over hurdles at Warwick before
11/14 – Officially rated between 126-142
11/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/14 – Placed favourites
5/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/14 – Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/14 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/14 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/14 – Winning favourites
8 of the last 9 winners were aged 8 or younger
4 of the last 6 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 8/1

TQ VERDICT: Not a bad race for the Jonjo O’Neill yard in recent years – they won two of the last 8 runnings – so their TEDHAM catches the eye. This 6 year-old was staying on well over 3m 1/2f at Haydock last time out and with only two runs so far this season should be a lot fitter for those outings. He was just 3 lengths behind Stoney Mountain that day and could meet that runner again, but if he does is also 3lbs better off this time. The longer trip looks to be in Tedham’s favour too, while he’s shown in the past that he’s handled soft conditions well too. Vive Le Roi ran a cracker to be third in a very competitive Newbury handicap hurdle last time and is only a pound higher – he can go well too. As well as Stoney Mountain, we’ve also Diomede Des Mottes and Flashjack as proven course winners here at the track. Of the rest, it might be worth giving another chance to WHITE MOON (e/w), if he runs. This Colin Tizzard-trained grey hasn’t quite cut the mustard over fences so the switch back to hurdles could be a good move. He’s 2-from-3 over the smaller obstacles and stays this trip well. Ground is also fine and 2 months off would have hopefully mean he’s back fresh and ready to go.

 

 

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team

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