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26th September 2020

Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: Sat 1st Feb 2020

 

  • SANDOWN: Four LIVE Races From The Esher Track……..
  • WETHERBY & MUSSELBURGH: ITV Cameras Take In Three Races………….
  • LEOPARDSTOWN: Irish Champion Hurdle Trends & Tips………..
  • TRAINERS-QUOTES: Moore Delight With Sunday Treble……….

Hi,

We managed to fire in some more decent winners last weekend with Ramses De Teilee (6/1), Lady Buttons (6/4) and Paisley Park (4/6) landing the money in three of the seven LIVE TV races for us – fingers crossed for more of the same today.

Last year, this upcoming weekend, was a bit of a washout with several meetings off, so let’s hope the weather is kinder this weekend. It’s a busy one too, with LIVE ITV action from Sandown, Wetherby and Musselburgh – we’ve seven races being shown LIVE across the three venues.

Plus, over in Ireland we’ve the two-day Dublin Racing Festival taking place on Saturday and Sunday at Leopardstown, so plenty of big names on show across the Irish Sea and with that a load more Cheltenham Festival clues to take in. Oh, and we’ve got the key trends for the Irish Champion Hurdle (Sat) for you below.

So - as always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all the key trends for the LIVE ITV races.

Enjoy!

Have a Great Weekend

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MOORE DELIGHT WITH FONTWELL TREBLE………………………It was a cracking day for the Gary Moore yard at Fontwell on Sunday. They had an army heading to the track but didn’t disappoint with a fantastic treble on the day, not to mention a whole host of placed finishes too!

Ruby Yeats (1st 25/1), Chain Smoker (1st 3/1) and Full Back (1st 11/4) were their three winners on the afternoon – a cracking 389/1 treble. Then with King Cool (3rd 7/1), Right Hand Of God (3rd 25/1) and Aiguille Rouge (2nd 11/2) also placed the Moore camp left the track with a tidy chunk of the prize money! Well done, from the TQ team!

TQ HORSE TO NOTE……………………………….. The Gary Moore-trained FULL BACK caught the eye when winning at Fontwell on Sunday and with that coming on only it’s third career run there should be a lot more in the offering. We know Gary thinks the horse is okay and prior to that recent win fared well in an above-average Ascot maiden. He’s no entries on the horizon as yet, but we can expect him to be out again this season and although likely to be upped in grade is a horse we’ll be following.

 

USE THE TQ INFO TO BACK OR LAY - Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

 

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SATURDAY LIVE ITV RACING FREE TIPS AND TRENDS


Defi Du Seuil winning the 2019 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown 

 

SANDOWN: Four LIVE Races From The Esher Track…….

 

Sandown Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.15 – Betway Casino Handicap Chase Cl2 1m7f119y RTV

13/13 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
13/13 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
12/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/13 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
10/13 – Aged 9 or younger
10/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
7/13 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
7/13 – Had run over fences at Sandown before (3 won)
6/13 – Winners that went to race in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
5/13 – Carried 10-10 or less
5/13 – Raced at Sandown last time out
5/13 – Came from outside the top 4 in the betting
4/13 – Aged 7 years-old
5/13 – French bred
4/13 – Had an official rating of exactly 125
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/13 – Ridden by Aidan Coleman
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson

 

TQ VERDICT: Two past winners of this race in action again with Gino Trial, who won the race in 2018, and Dolos, who was the 2019 hero, lining-up. Both are respected but need to bounce back from poor recent runs and with 12 of the last 13 winners having finished in the top three last time out they both fall down on this trend. With that in mind the Hobbs-trained JERRYSBACK, who returned to form with a solid third at Ascot last month, gets the call. He’s only a pound higher for that and even though the drop back from 3m to 2m here is a slight concern the soft ground will help slow things down – Barry Geraghty rides. The other that ticks a lot of the main trends is DELIRE D’ESTRUVAL. This 7 year-old was a close second last time out here to another possible runner – Locker Room – but with the more experienced Daryl Jacob taking over in the saddle he’s expected to be in the thick of things again and a track his form reads 1-2. Caid du Lin, Amoola Gold and Joke Dancer are other possible to note.

 

1.50 – Betway Contenders Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m ITV4

9/9 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/9 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
9/9 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
8/9 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – French bred
6/9 – Won between 2-5 times (hurdles)
6/9 – Winning favourites
6/9 – Rated 161 or higher
6/9 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
5/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
3/9 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/9 – Won last time out
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls

 

TQ VERDICT: The Paul Nicholls yard last won this in 2016 so will be trying again – this time with Quel Destin. However, this 5 year-old is rated 10lbs inferior to the Henderson runner – CALL ME LORD and is only getting 3lbs from that horse. With Henderson having a top record in this race too – has won it 6 times in the last 9 years – then it’s hard to see past his entry here. Call Me Lord is a proven CD winner and although he’s not quite gone onto the heights many though he would, he’s still a top class hurdler at this level. He backed that up with another nice win last time out over Ballyandy at Cheltenham and that form has since been given a shot in the arm too with the runner-up winning since. If running, Eldorado Allen and Marracudja can do best of the rest.

 

2.25 – Betway Scilly Isles Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV

16/16 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
16/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
16/16 – Won no more than 3 times over fences before
16/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
15/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/16 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
14/16 – Aged 7 or younger
14/16 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Defi Du Seuil JLT Novices’ Chase)
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/16 – Winning favourites
10/16 – French bred
6/16 – Aged 7 years-old
6/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/16 – Irish bred
5/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/16 – Had run over fences at Sandown before
4/16 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 5 in the RSA Chase
4/16 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob (4 of last 5 winners)
4/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty

TQ VERDICT: This has been another good race for the Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson yards – they’ve won 9 of the last 16 runnings between them. At this stage Nicholls has Grand Sancy entered, while Henderson has Champagne Platinum, Precious Cargo and Pym. The Willie Mullins-trained Laurina could also line-up and if she does make the trip over from Ireland will be a big player getting the mares’ allowance from the others. However, she was pulled-up last time out at Leopardstown after jumping badly and breaking a blood vessel in the process, so there is a certain amount of risk attached to backing her – albeit on her day she’s a class act and has also won over hurdles here at Sandown. Midnight Shadow was a useful hurdler that has made a good transition to fences so has to enter the mix. While Good Boy Bobby was a close second to Mister Fisher last time out and with that horse winning again since suggest the form is solid – he looks sure to have a say too. But the call is ITCHY FEET to remain unbeaten over fences. Last season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle third was an easy winner on his chase debut at Leicester last month and that experience would have taught him a lot. He was a useful hurdler that could turn into a better chaser. Of the Henderson runner, if going, then Pym looks the one to be on after two nice wins at Ascot and Cheltenham. The second in his most recent race has since come out and won, but it’s worth noting both wins were over 3m so this drop back in trip might not be totally ideal.


3.00 – Betway Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m7f98y ITV

14/14 – Had run in the last 8 weeks
14/14 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
13/14 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
12/14 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/14 – Officially rated 135 or lower
11/14 – Won between 2-3 times over hurdles previously
10/14 – Winners that went to race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
10/14 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or shorter
9/14 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
9/14 – Priced 13/2 or less
9/14 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
9/14 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/14 – Favourites placed
5/14 – Favourites that won
4/14 – Raced over hurdles at Sandown previously (3 won)
4/14 – Won their last race
4/14 – Won by a French-bred horse
4/14 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/14 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/14 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard
2/14 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/14 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (Ryanair Chase, 2007 Taranis)

TQ VERDICT: Topweight – AGRAPART (e/w) – will love the heavy ground but it won’t be easy carrying 11-12 in it. On a plus, Chester Williams takes off 5lbs from his back and he should find this drop back into handicap company a lot easier than the graded races he’s been running in of late – he looks interesting, despite his big weight. Bold Plan needs to bounce back from an early fall at Ascot last time out, but was sent off favourite that day in a decent handicap hurdle so has to be respected. Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 14 runnings so his Dan McGrue is another to consider, but with wins in 2011 and 2016 the Philip Hobs team are another that like to target this race – they run BIG SHARK (e/w). This 6 year-old gets in here with only 10-13 in weight and wasn’t disgraced on handicap debut at Haydock (2nd) last time out. He acts with give underfoot and should have a lot more to come with just three career runs. Ask Dillon and Ask Ben are others that can make their presence felt, while Golan Fortune was a nice winner last time out at Cheltenham and was second in this race in 2018 – he can go well too.

3.35 – Betway Masters Handicap Chase Cl2 3m110y ITV

15/16 – Carried 11-5 or less
14/16 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
13/16 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/16 – Aged 9 or younger
11/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences (UK) before
11/16 – Rated 136 or lower
9/16 – Favourites placed in the top 4
9/16 – Placed last time out
9/16 – Irish-bred
8/16 – Had raced at Sandown before (4 won)
7/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/16 – Raced at either Sandown (3) or Haydock (3) last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/16 – French-bred
3/16 – Winners that went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
2/16 – Trained by Lucy Wadham (2 of last 6)
2/16 – Trained by Venetia Williams (2 of last 6)

TQ VERDICT: Dominateur has done little wrong in winning his last two races over fences and looks a chaser on the up, but this will be another big test for him and his hardest yet – he’s up 8lbs in the weights too. With 13 of the last 16 winners aged 9 or younger, plus 11 of the last 16 rated 136 or lower, then these are two good stats to apply. With that taken into account the Philip Hobbs runner – DEISE ABA (e/w) – looks interesting. This 7 year-old was an easy 17 length winner at Catterick last time out at odds-on and despite this being harder is rated just 135 here and looks set to get in with a nice weight. That was only his third run over fences too so should have more to offer and acted well in soft ground before. There are plenty others to consider – like Le Rocher and Cloudy Glen, who represents the Venetia Williams yard that have a good record in the race. But the other of interest is last year’s winner – CLASSIC BEN. This 7 year-old still has a lot of time on his side to get better and warmed-up nicely for this with a solid third at Haydock last time out in The Last Fling Chase. He’s a pound lower for that run and the drop back from 3m4f to 3m here will be a plus after running out of petrol over that marathon trip last time.


WETHERBY & MUSSELBURGH: Three More LIVE ITV Races……..

Wetherby Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.45 – William Hill Towton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV4

13/14 – Aged 8 or younger
12/14 – Had never raced over fences at Wetherby before
11/14 – Priced 3/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/14 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
10/14 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
9/14 – Aged 7 years-old
9/14 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
9/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Irish bred
7/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/14 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (1 winner, Blaklion 2016, plus all finished 6th or better)
2/14 – Trained by Ian Williams

TQ VERDICT: Newtide looks to have a future over fences after a smooth debut win at Ffos Las back in November, while Chapel Stile showed a lot of guts to win well at Carlisle last time out. But I’ve been quite impressed with the way BOLDMERE has been progressing over fences and the way he’s won his last two at Leicester and Doncaster. He beat a fair sort in Bob Mahler by 10 lengths last time out at his first try over 3m and despite a few sketchy jumping errors looks the sort to have more to some. James Bowen, who has won on him before, returns to the saddle and can hopefully guide him home again.

 

Musselburgh Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 - bet365 Scottish County Hurdle (A Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f124y ITV4

11/12 – Returned 15/2 or less in the betting
10/12 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
11/12 – Had won over this trip before (hurdles)
9/12 – Aged 6 years-old
8/12 – Former flat horses
8/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/12 – Carried 11-0 or less
7/12 – Rated between 120-130
7/12 – Favourites placed in the top 4
2/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Won last time out

TQ VERDICT: Project Bluebook was 1 ½ lengths second to SIR CHAUVELIN (e/w) last time out here so we can expect another close thing between the two with a 2lb weight pull between them this time at well. But the way Sir Chauvelin kept on that day was eye-catching and he’s also got history in this race after running fourth in this contest in 2018 – another bold bid looks on the cards. Of the rest, South Seas was a useful flat performer but is yet to win over hurdles from three runs so is overlooked, while with just 10-5 in weight Ashington is sure to have it’s supporters too being that he’s a proven CD winner too – but does have 3 ¾ lengths to make up on Sir Chauvelin based on their run here on New Year’s Day. Miranda represents the Paul Nicholls yard so will attract interest and heads here having won last time out, plus, despite some average runs of late, the 2018 winner of the race – DEAR SIRE (e/w) – might be foolish to rule out if lining-up.

 

3.15 – bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase Cl2 4m176y ITV4

Only two previous runnings
2/2 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
2/2 – Priced between 6/1 and 10/1 in the betting
0/2 – Winning favourites
Trainer Sandy Thompson won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 60% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Tim Vaughan has a 27% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Sandy Thompson has a 26% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Full Jack won the race in 2018
Dancing Shadow (6/1) won the race in 2017

TQ VERDICT: Course winner, Wonderful Charm, is a good place to start and being from the Paul Nicholls yard then he’ll have his backers. CHIC NAME (e/w) has been running well over the Cross-Country course at Cheltenham recently and could be on a nice mark. He’s won over 3m6f in the past so this 4m trip should be within range and has been freshened up with almost 2 months off. Of the rest, Brian Boranha will have Brian Hughes riding and was in the process of running well when falling at the last at Catterick last time out. The horse that won that race – Little Bruce – is also going here and looks a useful stayer in the making. He had Sumkindofking 3 lengths back that day but has been raised 6lbs for that run so will need to take another step forward. Bob Maher and Some Chaos are others to respect if making the final line-up.

LEOPARDSTOWN: Key Trends Ahead Of The Irish Champion Hurdle……….

Key Irish Champion Hurdle Trends

15/16 – Placed in the top three last time
15/16 – Raced within the last 2 months
14/16 – Had won at Leopardstown before
13/16 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Rated 159 or higher
13/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
12/16 – Went onto finish in the top six of that season’s Champion Hurdle
12/16 – Won last time out
11/16 – Irish bred
11/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/16 – Winning favourites
11/16 – Raced at Leopardstown last time out
6/16 – Trained by Willie Mullins (6 of last 9 runnings)
3/16 – Went onto win the Champion Hurdle
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 5/2

 

TQ VERDICT: The Willie Mullins yard have won 6 of the last 9 runnings of the Irish Champion Hurdle so their main runners – Sharjah and Klassical Dream – enter the mix. Of the two, the last-named is on a big recovery mission after flopping on both starts this season so last terms Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner does need to restore some faith in his backers’ confidence. Those runs are clearly too bad to be true, but he was still 46 lengths behind his stablemate – Sharjah – that day so I’d much rather be on that one of the Mullins runners. He has Petit Mouchoir 3 ¾ lengths back in second that day too so can be expected to have the beating of that one again here. However, it’s not going to be easy giving 7lbs away to the ‘mare of the moment’ – HONEYSUCKLE – who bolted-up at Fairyhouse in the Grace Hatton Hurdle over Christmas by an easy 9 lengths. She’s a high-class mare that looks to have a huge future and is now 6-from-6 over hurdles. Those looking to take her on might cling to the fact that she’s never raced at Leopardstown and that only 1 of the last 11 winners of this race were second season hurdlers. In contrast, the favourites have won 11 of the last 16 (69%) and with little depth to the race I’ll be taking her to remain unbeaten and keep her star status in-tact. Of the rest, the 2018 winner of this race – SUPASUNDAE (e/w) – looks best of those at bigger prices. He’s now a 10 year-old but older horses have an okay record in the race with Hurricane Fly winning this at a 10 and 11 year-old.

 

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team

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