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18th October 2021

Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: Sat 1st May 2021

A huge Saturday and Sunday this weekend as it's Guineas weekend with the first two Classics of the season which means the new flat turf season is well and truly started.

We've four races - including the 2,000 Guineas - to take in at Newmarket  on Saturday, plus the ITV cameras are also heading to Goodwood and Thirsk to take in two more LIVE races - plenty to look forward to!

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at TQ with all the key trends, plus our free horse racing tips, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!


Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


1.50 – ‘My Oddsboost’ On Betfair Suffolk Stakes Cl2 1m1f ITV

14/15 – Had won at least twice before
14/15 – Had won over at least a mile before
13/15 – Priced 12/1 or shorter
13/15 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
13/15 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
12/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/15 – Returned between 9/1 and 12/1 in the betting
10/15 – Rated between 90 and 96
9/15 – Aged 4 years-old
7/15 – Having their first run of the season
6/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Irish bred
3/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 - Winning favourites
Just 1 winner from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 12 runnings

TQ VERDICT: The ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin has a strong hand here with Bright Melody, who was a nice winner at Meydan last time out, and the Frankie-ridden Dubai Legacy in the field. After showing promise in his early runs, Maydanny has a bit to prove after some average runs so is overlooked, with the main fancy the Andrew Balding runner – BELL ROCK. This 5 year-old had an excuse when last seen running down the field at Ascot with the ground too soft that day. He’s had a break since and on this better ground looks interesting. He’s also gone well fresh in the past and is a proven course winner too, while the useful William Carver is also allowed to claim a handy 5lbs from the saddle. Of the rest, the Ralph Beckett yard have won this race in the past (2014) and will be trying to add to that with their course winner Mascat, while Starcat and Overwrite, who has had the benefit of some recent runs are others to consider.


2.20 – Betfair Palace House Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV

16/18 – Had won over 5f before
16/18 – Won 3 or more times before
15/18 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
15/18 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
15/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/18 – Had run at Newmarket before
14/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/18 – Aged 5 or younger
12/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Rated between 108 and 114
10/18 – Won last time out
6/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/18 – Trained by Bryan Smart
Far Above won the race in 2020 (run in June)
Mabs Cross won the race in 2018 and 2019
Just 2 placed horses from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
7 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 2-7 (inc)

TQ VERDICT: Just the five runners here, but a tight renewal and a case can be made for them all. Trainer William Haggas has a good hand with two in the race – Al Zaragaan – who has caught the eye in winning his last four, and Pablo Escobarr. The former is clearly a horse on the up, but is making the leap from handicap company into a Group Two, so does need to prove he’s up to that. The Mark Johnston yard won this race when it was last run (2019) and have Thunderous running for them this time. He landed the Dante Stakes last season but was last seen flopping (last) in the Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown last Friday. The step up to 1m4f looks sure to suit though, but does need to bounce back – Ryan Moore rides. Johnston also have SIR RON PRIESTLEY in the race and I think he’s their better chance. He’s race fit after a top win at Nottingham (Listed) last time out and the second in that race – Ocean Wind – has franked the form since with a good second in the Sagaro Stakes this midweek. We know he stays further than this 1m4f trip too, so connections are sure to make full use of that, while having won 6 of his 10 career starts now, he’s a horse that knows how to get his head in front. The main danger can come from Pyledriver, who is the clear top-rated in the field (119). This classy middle-distance performer was third in the St Leger last season and was a good winner of the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot last term too. His last two runs at this level have been winning ones too. But returning from a 196-day break is the slight worry, especially taking on the in-form Sir Ron Priestley, who has had the benefit of a more recent run.

3.00 – Betfair Exchange Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f ITV

17/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/17 – Had won between 3-5 times in their career
14/17 – Won over 1m4f+ before
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or more
12/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/17 – Aged 4 years-old
10/17 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Rated 112 or higher
9/17 – Winning favourites
8/17 – Had won a Group race before
7/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Having their first run of the season
6/17 – Aged 5 years-old
6/17 – Ran at Newbury last time out
4/17 – Returned 7/4 in the betting
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/17 – Won by trainer Mark Johnston
2/17 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Trained by Andre Fabre

TQ VERDICT: A very open renewal of the first Classic of the season. The Aidan O’Brien camp are always feared in this race – winning it 10 times in total. They run three again this year – Wembley, Van Gogh and Battleground – both look to have big chances too. Wembley is likely to be the shorter of the two in the betting having run a decent second in the Dewhurst here last October. However, the fact he’s now been second four times from his 6 starts and won just the once would be the worry for me. Another O’Brien runner – Van Gogh – was a good winner in France last time, but that came on heavy ground and he’s unlikely to get the cut he probably needs this Saturday. So, of the O’Brien runners, that leaves BATTLEGROUND (e/w). This 3 year-old won the G2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last July and certainly wasn’t disgraced at the Breeders’ Cup last time when second to Fire At Will. He stayed on well that day, but also wasn’t the best away and had to race wide during the race – losing ground. Back on a straight track he shouldn’t have those issues and being the slightly lesser exposed of the O’Brien runners he gets the nod. Godolphin have a decent hand too with Craven Stakes winner – Master Of The Seas, One Ruler and Naval Crown. All three are respected, with the first two named CD winners too, but Master Of The Seas has shown a bit of temperament in his races too and even though he won last time, did was a bit free too – I’m not sure he’ll get away with that again in a race like this. The unbeaten Mutasaabeq is one to note in the market and is clearly well regarded to be running here and was a very easy course winner over 7f here last time. Chindit won the Greenham Stakes at Newbury last time over 7f – staying on well to suggest this 1m trip will be within range, but this is a step back up in class and was only 9th in the G1 Dewhurst here in October. Thunder Moon can go well too and was an excellent third in the Dewhurst, but all runs have been over 7f to date and so will have a bit to prove over this extra furlong. So, of those at a bigger price the Jim Bolger-trained POETIC FLARE (e/w) might be worth a small interest too. He’s won his last two at Listed and G3 level in Ireland and even though he was only 10th in the Dewhurst, that was only his second career run and he’s clearly progressed nicely since. The step up to a mile should suit and the shrewd Bolger yard won this in 2013 with Dawn Approach who is the sire of their runner this year!

3.40 – Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m ITV

19/19 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
17/19 – Had won over at least 7f before
17/19 – Had won a Group race before
17/19 – Had won between 2-5 times before
15/19 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
15/19 – Won last time out
14/19 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
14/19 – Having their first run of the season
12/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/19 – Placed favourites
12/19 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
11/19 – Won by an Irish-based yard
10/19 – Irish bred
9/19 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
8/19 – Had won over a mile before
7/19 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 3
6/19 – Winning favourites
5/19 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
5/19 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (2 winners)
4/19 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
3/19 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 10/1

Other 2,000 Guineas Facts

- Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019
- Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999 & 2016


Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – MansionBet Best Odds Guaranteed Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV

9/9 – Didn’t win last time out
8/9 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/9 – Yet to race at the track
8/9 – Won 2 or more times before
7/9 – Winners from stalls 1 or 5
7/9 – Horse from stall 1 placed in the top 3
7/9 – Favourites placed in the top 3
7/9 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Horse from stall 5 placed in the top 3
6/9 – Aged 4 years-old
6/9 – Unplaced last time out
5/9 – Horse from stall 7 placed in the top 3
5/9 – Won over a mile before
4/9 – Winners from stall 1
3/9 – Ran a Newmarket last time out
2/9 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: The 108-rated pair of Agincourt and Maamora will be popular here, while Amniarix and the hat-trick seeking Pholas can throw their hats into the ring too. But, the William Haggas yard won this race when it was last run and they look to have another leading chance with a horse called LILAC ROAD. This 3 year-old made all to record a very easy win at Kempton earlier this month and also gets the age allowance here – so a nice 11lbs off all bar Illykato in the race. Trip is fine and even though this is a step up in grade she was only beaten 2 lengths in the G2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster last season and that form would put her bang there in this. Cieren Fallon rides.

Thirsk Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.40 – Cliff Stud Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m ITV

9/9 – Aged 6 or younger
9/9 – Won at least twice before
9/9 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
8/9 – Drawn in stalls 7 or higher
8/9 – Rated between 87-94 (inc)
8/9 – Didn’t win last time out
8/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/9 – Won over at least 1m before
7/9 – Unplaced last time out
7/9 – Won between 2-4 times
6/9 – Winners from a double-figure draw
5/9 – Had run at the track before (3 won)
2/9 – Winning favourites

Note: The 2018 running was staged at Wetherby

TQ VERDICT: A competitive renewal, but with ALL of the last 9 winners aged 6 or younger, then Waarif, Scottish Summit, Hayadh and Erayg have this to overcome. Being drawn in stalls 7 or higher is another plus, as is carrying 9-2 or less in weight. The weight stat only sees five of the 16 runners get a positive – TOM COLLINS, GLOBAL SPIRIT, AL ERAYG, STORTING and JEAN BAPTISTE. Of that bunch, it’s the William Haggas-trained TOM COLLINS (e/w) and the bottom weight, JEAN BAPTISTE (e/w), that catch the eye. The former was last seen winning at Pontefract when trained by David Elsworth, but is only 5lbs higher and at the age of just 4 should be a lot fitter for another winter on his back. Jean Baptiste will be fitter than most after three runs already this season and that last two of those were solid seconds at Leicester and Nottingham. Trip and ground are fine and he gets in here with just 8-10 in weight – that’s 10lbs less in racing weight than his last outing. Of the rest, those nearer the head of the betting will include the consistent pair of Nugget and Astro King, but will both have to find more after being raised by the handicapper again here. Acquitted and On A Session are others to make a case for

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