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13th April 2021

Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: Sat 20th March 2021

So, that’s Cheltenham Festival over, but this Saturday there is still plenty of racing action as the ITV cameras head to Uttoxeter for the Midlands National, plus they are also at Kempton for a jumps fixture. Did you know, 16 of the last 17 Midlands National winners were aged 9 or younger, while 15 of the last 17 carried 10-12 or less in weight?

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at TQ with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

 

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Uttoxeter Horse Racing Trends

 

1.50 – Marston’s Brewery Handicap Hurdle Cl3 (4yo+ 0-125) 2m 7 1/2f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 30% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 26% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Rebecca Curtis has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Martin Keighley is only 5 from 51 with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Jeremy Scott is only 1 from 20 with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Harry Skelton has a 40% record riding over hurdles at the track

TQ VERDICT: The hat-trick seeking Theme Tune will be popular but is up in trip here and into a handicap for the first time so might be worth taking on. Saint Dalina is the only CD winner in the field so commands respect, as does Huntsmans Jog, who is having a fair season. But the two yards that have decent strike-rates here at the track with their hurdlers are Dan Skelton and Nicky Henderson. Skelton runs I’D BETTER GO NOW, who can be forgiven his last two runs. One came over fences and he didn’t take to them and the other was in a much better race than this. He won at Perth last September in a similar race and is only 4lbs higher. Henderson runs STEAL A MARCH for the Queen. He’s been running okay over 2m5f of late, but has been staying on well to suggest there will be a fair amount of improvement now stepped up in trip.

 

2.25 – 1834 Novices’ Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV4

14/17 – Aged 8 or younger
14/17 – Carried 10-9 or more
12/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
12/17 – Returned 7/1 or less
11/17 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
11/17 – Placed last time out
11/17 – Never raced at Uttoxeter before
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/17 – Had won over at least 3m (chases) before
9/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – Aged 7 years-old
5/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Trained by Alan King
2/17 – Trained by Harry Fry (two of last 4 runnings)
2/17 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/17 – Winning favourites
Sam’s Adventure (6/1) won the race in 2020
De Rasher Counter (4/1) won the race in 2019

TQ VERDICT: A decent race and a case can be made for several. Shanty Alley and Young Wolf are the two CD winners in the line-up, while with a 29% record with his chasers at the track, the Dan Skelton-trained FLEGMATIK is one for the shortlist too. He got a bit bogged down in heavy ground last time, but on a better surface here and dropped a few pounds looks interesting – he’s only 2lbs higher than his last win. Recent Sandown scorer – Éclair De Guye – will be popular too, but is up another 5lbs here so more is needed. The other pick though is the other recent winner in the field – ST BARTS. This Philip Hobbs runner was a good winner at Newbury last time and even though he’s up 8lbs for that is unexposed with just two runs over fences so looks the sort to have more to come. He’s also a course winner over hurdles so the track will be fine.

3.00 – Burton Union Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV4

9/9 – Aged 8 or younger
9/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/9 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/9 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
7/9 – Won no more than 3 times over hurdles
7/9 – Rated between 122 and 128
7/9 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
7/9 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
5/9 – Irish bred
3/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Aged 8 years-old
2/9 – Trained by David Pipe
2/9 – Ridden by Adam Wedge
Main Fact (5/1) won the race in 2020
Poker Play (16/1) won the race in 2019

TQ VERDICT: Surprisingly, the Paul Nicholls yard are 0-from-13 at the track with their hurdlers so they will be trying to put that right with their recent Taunton scorer Rockadenn. CD winner Gustavian should go well too and heads here on a three-timer after wins here and at Fontwell – he’s up 7lbs more here though and might not get the heavy ground he probably needs. Mint Condition and Relentless Dreamer can’t be discounted, but the Harry Fry yard have a 32% record with their hurdlers here, so their WININGSEVERYTHING is worth some support, while with a 30% record the Dan Skelton yard are also respected – they run WILDE ABOUT OSCAR. The former fell last time over fences but is back over hurdles here and looked a fair soft before his last run, when winning twice at Market Rasen and Southwell. Wilde About Oscar has won 3 of his last 4, including last time by 7 ½ lengths at Exeter. He’s also a course winner and despite a hefty 10lb hike in the ratings could still have more to give.


3.35 – Marston’s 61 Deep Midlands Grand National Chase Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 4m1f110y ITV4

16/17 – Aged 9 or younger
15/17 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
15/17 – Carried 10-12 or less
15/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
13/17 – Won by an Irish bred horse
13/17 – Had never run at Uttoxeter before
13/17 – Unplaced favourites
11/17 – Officially rated 135 or less
11/17 – Carried 10-9 or less
11/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/17 – Returned a double-figure-price in the betting
9/17 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
9/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Trained by David Pipe
3/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/17 – Winning favourites
8 of the last 10 winners aged 8 or 9
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 11/1

TQ VERDICT: Last year’s winner – Truckers Lodge – is back for more for the Paul Nicholls yard and certainly can’t be ruled out. Yes, he’s up 12lbs since last year, but he won the race by 18 lengths and is still lightly-raced over fences (7 runs). 16 of the last 17 winners were aged 9 or younger, so that’s a negative for Screaming Colours, Tommy Rapper, Prime Venture, Doing Fine, Final Nudge, Regal Encore and Acting Lass, who are all aged in double-figures. 15 of the last 17 winners also carried 10-12 or less in weight, so that would be a plus for horses between 10 and 22 (inc), but we can also take this weight trend a bit further weight 11 of the last 17 carrying 10-9 or less – of those aged in single-figures, this age stat is a positive for TRUCKIN AWAY, COO STAR SIVOLA, SPRINGFIELD FOX, CROSSLEY TENDER and SEASTON SPIRIT. However, the 8 year-old TIME TO GET UP only just falls outside this weight trend with 10-10 and having won well at Wincanton last time out is the call. He’s up 8lbs for that win, but ran on strongly that day to suggest the longer trip will bring out more and with only 6 career runs and 3 runs over fences should have more in the locker for the Jonjo O’Neill yard. Of the rest, the already mentioned CROSSLEY TENDER (e/w) and COO STAR SIVOLA (e/w) both get in with light weights and are worth small savers too.

Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends

2.05 – Virgin Bet Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl3 2m ITV4

13/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/14 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
10/14 – Won at least once over fences before
9/14 – Carried 11-0 or less
7/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
7/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Unplaced last time out
5/14 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
5/14 – Won 3 or more times before over fences
2/14 – Trained by Tom George (2 of last 8)

TQ VERDICT: Doukarov and Fairway Freddie is the only recent winners in the field so have to enter the mix. Zoffee made a bad error last time at Donny and was soon pulled up so even though capable on his best form I’d like to see how he is after that last outing – jockey said he felt amiss. After three wins, Peterborough’s winning run came to an end last time and so the handicapper might have him now. Havana Hermano and Onthefrontfoot have been running consistently too, but the call is course winner - ESKENDASH. This Olly Murphy runner ran well (5th) behind Amoola Gold last time at Wetherby, but has since been switched to the Murphy yard (from Pam Sly) and also had a wind op. Dropped 3lbs too and connections also put on Fergus Gregory to take off a further 3lbs.

2.40 – Virgin Bet Silver Plate Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m5f ITV4

6/7 – Won with 11-3 or more in weight
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
5/7 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/7 – Rated between 129-135
5/7 – Unplaced favourites
5/7 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
5/7 - Winners carried 11-12 or more
4/7 – Irish bred
4/7 – Had run at the track before
2/7 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/7 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
0/7 – Winning favourites
Our Power (11/1) won the race in 2020
Wicked Willy (20/1) won the race in 2019

TQ VERDICT: Switch Hitter is the only CD winner in the field, while Breffinboy has won here at Kempton in the past too. Nightboattoclyro will catch the eye of punters too after three straight wins, but is up another 6lbs here. Henderson’s Son Of Camas will probably have it’s supporters too as was billed to be a lot better than he’s shown, but is yet to deliver that on the track. The call though is the Paul Nicholls runner DIESE DES BIEFFES and the Suzy Smith entry – DEBESTYMAN. The former has clearly had it’s issues after showing a good level of novice form in 2018. He didn’t run too badly on his return last time at Southwell (3rd) and is 9lbs better off here with the jockey’s claim. The switch back to hurdles also looks a good move and the fact connections are persisting with him suggests he’s still showing something at home. Debestyman unseated at the last when having the Lanzarote Hurdle in the bag here in Jan 2020 and on that run would have a big chance. He’s up 6lbs from that and even though not the most consistent, ran a cracker at Cheltenham in a hot handicap two runs back (2nd) – that form would make him a player.

3.15 – Virgin Free Bet’s For Winners Handicap Chase Cl3 2m4f110y ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 28% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 21% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Emma Lavelle is only 3-from-43 with her chasers at the track

TQ VERDICT: Smarty Wild is a CD winner, but this might be left for the Henderson and Nicholls stables to fight out. Henderson has two in the race – Falco Blitz and Whatswrongwithyou – while Nicholls runs MY WAY. You’d feel recent Southwell scorer Falco Blitz will be the main Henderson player, but does have a lot of weight (12-0) and is up 9lbs for that last win. So, the call is My Way for Nicholls. Also a good winner last time out, but that came here and the first time blinkers that day seemed to do the trick. They are on again here and despite being up 9lbs too, he gets in with a better racing weight (11-8) and that might just be the difference. Brynoy Frost rides.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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