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30th July 2021

Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: Sat 27th Feb 2021

 

We've another busy afternoon in store with seven LIVE ITV races spread across three tracks - Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle.

The Betway Handicap Chase tops the bill at Kempton, with four LIVE races at the Sunbury-On-Thames track, while the stayers are out again up at Newcastle for the gruelling Eider Chase that's run over 4m1f. Then down at Lingfield the All Weather racing fans get their fix with a top-notch card that includes the Group 3 Winter Derby.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at TQ with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

1.50– Close Brothers Pendil Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

14/16 – French (8) of Irish (6) bred
13/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
12/16 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/16 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/16 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
10/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (won 7 of the last 11)
9/16 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
8/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Winning favourites

TQ VERDICT: Just the four runners, but still a fascinating little race. The bubble burst a bit for the improving Ga Law last time at Sandown in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase, but now that third behind Allmankind doesn’t look too bad. He was only beaten 10 ½ lengths and that horse is now third favourite with most firms for the Arkle at the Festival. The step back up in trip should also in in favour of this Jamie Snowden-trained 5 year-old and if allowed to dominate from the front could be hard to peg back around Kempton. However, it’s hard to get away from the good record of the Paul Nicholls yard in this race – they’ve won 7 of the last 11 – so their TAMAROC DU MATHAN. This 6 year-old also ticks the key age trend, with 11 of the last 16 winners aged 6 or 7, while his 13 length second to the classy Shishkin wasn’t a bad effort considering that horse is the big favourite for the Arkle Chase at the Festival. Yes, the step up in trip is a slight unknown, but he’s run well over 2m5f here at the track before (March 20) and is another year stronger. Paddy Power Gold Cup winner - Coole Cody – is certainly no back number either, but needs to bounce back from a poor run last time at Cheltenham, while the Henderson runner – Son Of Camas – had many people excited a season of so ago, but hasn’t really fulfilled those expectations yet and you feel his chances are running out.

 

2.25 – Close Brothers Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

16/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 -  Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Had won no more than once over hurdles in the UK
13/17 – Winners that went onto run in the Triumph Hurdle (3 winners)
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
12/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
11/17– Won carrying either a 4lb or 7lb penalty
10/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – French bred
5/17 – Irish bred
5/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Trained by Alan King (won two of last 4 runnings)
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/17 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Triumph Hurdle
Zarkandar, Soldatino and Penzance went onto land that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

TQ VERDICT: The Alan King yard have a good record in this race so their recent Ascot scorer – Tritonic – has to enter calculations. He had Casa Loupi just a length back in second that day too, so you feel there shouldn’t be a lot between the pair again here. Dan Skelton introduces the fair flat performer – John Locke – to hurdling here. He was rated 85 on the flat when trained by Ralph Beckett and is sure to have been well-schooled ahead of this – any market support should be noted. French raider – Margaret’s Legacy has won both her starts in France and the fact she’s making the trip over suggests he's fancied by connections to go well, but her form is hard to translate, but both wins have come on very soft ground so the conditions here are likely to be a lot quicker. Soldier On Parade has already won three times over hurdle so that experience is a plus, while the Jane Williams runner – Honneur D’Ajonc – looked to be the winner last time out here until falling at the last – he’s had time to get over that and has to be a player, but that fall and the fact he raced a bit free last time are the worries though. So, this could be another for the Paul Nicholls yard, in a race they like to target. They introduce a horse called PASO DOBLE here to run over hurdles for the first time, but is an experienced flat horse with 9 runs when trained by Jim Bolger in Ireland for Godolphin. He was rated 84 on the level and knows how to win (2 victories), plus having run well over 1m4f (flat) there is every chance he’ll be fine over this 2m trip over the sticks. His proven flat speed will be a big asset and is sure to have been well prepped in the jumping stakes.

 

3.00 – Sky Bet Dovecote Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

14/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
13/15 – Returned a single-figure price in the betting
13/15 – Had never raced over hurdles at Kempton before
12/15 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
9/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – French bred
4/15 – Trained by Alan King
4/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

TQ VERDICT: Recent winners – Calico, who was impressive on hurdles debut at Ludlow, Lunar Sovereign, who has won his last two, plus Pyramid Place and Mackenberg are all runners to note. We’ve also a potential Irish raider in Cape Gentleman, who comes over from the Emmet Mullins yard. This 5 year-old was a good winner at Punchestown in December but has a bit to prove after being pulled up at Leopardstown last time out, albeit in a decent race that Gaillard Du Mesnil won. The horse hung right that day, which wasn’t ideal around that left-handed track, so Kempton should be fine on that score, but without sounding too predictable, this could be another for the Paul Nicholls team. They run an exciting sort in Atholl Street here, who has gone into many a notebook after two facile wins at Taunton. Yes, this is a step up in grade, but he holds an entry for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival and his last win in particular (16 lengths) was impressive from the front, while this is prize the Nicholls yard have won twice since 2014.

 

3.35 – Close Brothers Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV4

15/18 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
15/18 – Aged 9 or younger
15/18 – Rated 139 or higher
13/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
12/18 – Won a Class 2 chase or better before
12/18 – Carried 10-13 or more
12/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
12/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/18 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
11/18 – Rated between 139 and 150
10/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
8/18 – Carried 11-5 or more
7/18 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/18 – Won last time out
6/18 – Aged 8 years-old
5/18 – French bred
4/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
4/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/18 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
3/18 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/18 – Ridden by Richard Johnson (won it 5 times in all)
2/18 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/18 – Trained by Tom George
2/18 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 4)
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (won 2 of the last 4)
2/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs (won it 4 times in all)
2/18 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
Mister Malarky (9/1) won the race in 2020

Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park

TQ VERDICT: With 15 of the last 18 winners aged 9 or younger, then this is a good place to start – of the 18 runners this might be deemed a negative for Black Corton (10), Double Shuffle (11), Aso (11), Fingerontheswitch (11) and Soupy Soups (10). A top 5 finish last time out is a plus though, while 12 of the last 18 winners carried 10-13 or more – which is a positive for the top 10 runners in the card. The consistent Clondaw Castle will be popular from the Tom George yard that won this race a few times in the past with Nacarat, but the step up in trip would be a concern for me. Cap Du Nord ran well in the Sky Bet Chase (3rd) last time and before that ran the useful Royal Pagaille to just over 3 lengths here, but he seems to just be creeping up the handicap without winning (3lbs more here than last time) and also doesn’t look great value in a race with many chances. Talkischeap was pulled up in this race 12 months ago, but had an excuse as lost a shoe – he’s 2lbs lower this time though and ran well to be third in a NH Flat race at Lingfield last time. We’ve also got last year’s winner – MISTER MALARKY (e/w) – in the race and he might be worth chancing again. Okay, he’s not the most consistent, plus he’s also rated 8lbs higher this year. But it’s interesting connections have offset most of that with Harry Kimber riding to claim 7lbs. He’s also had a wind op since his last run, when tailed off in the Sky Bet Chase, but prior to that won well at Ascot off a mark of 150, so today is actually 2lbs lower than that, with the jockey claim – the Tizzard yard have also won 2 of the last 4 runnings. The stable, also run SLATE HOUSE (e/w) and I think he’s also worth having an interest in. A good third last time out at Wincanton should have him spot-on for this and that was his first run back after a wind operation. He’s a CD winner at the track too, while this 9 year-old ticks most of the main age, form and weight trends too. Of the rest, Al Dancer, Romain De Senam and Mellow Ben are others to consider.

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

3.15 – Vertem Eider (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 4m1f ITV4

16/16 – Had won over at least 3m before
14/16 – Aged 10 or younger
13/16 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/16 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Irish-bred
11/16 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/16 – Officially rated between 131-140
10/16 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/16 – Placed favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Won over 3m4f or further before
3/16 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Irish-trained winners
Crosspark (12/1) won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 10/1

TQ VERDICT: No running of this race last year but we have got the 2019 winner in the race – Crosspark. This 11 year-old is, however, rated a massive 15lbs higher than when he won this a few seasons ago and does have a touch of the ‘seconds’ at the moment after finishing runner-up in his last four races. Therefore, I think of those nearer the head of the market, the 9 year-old SAM’S ADVENTURE is the better option. Yes, he unseated last time out at Haydock in the Peter Marsh Chase, but before that was a nice winner of the Tommy Whittle Chase and looks the sort to improve again for this step up in trip. He’s only had 9 career runs over fences, so is fairly lightly-raced for his age and is also a proven course winner at the track – albeit over hurdles. With the 150-rated Crosspark in the race this means several are also running from out of the handicap – Strong Economy, Haul Us, Little Red Lion and Friends Don’t Ask, so they would have a bit to find at the weights, but of that bunch Strong Economy and Little Red Lion were both good winners last time out and can’t be ruled out. But STRONG ECONOMY (e/w) is somewhat of an Ayr specialist these days – has run all bar one of his 21 career runs there – so it’s hard to know how he’ll fare here. Having said that, the tracks are not too dissimilar, and he gets in here with only 10-0 to carry, which would make him very dangerous. The cheekpieces are also on for the first time and the way he stayed on over 3m3f last time would be an encouraging sign stepping up to this extreme trip. Of the remainder, Salty Boy, Big River, Cyclop, The Dutchman and Springfield Fox would all have claims on their best form, but also all have a bit to answer based on their most recent runs.

 

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

2.05 – Betway Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV4

12/14 – Rated 96+
12/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Had raced at Lingfield before
10/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/14 – Raced 6 weeks or longer ago
9/14 – Placed favs
8/14 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
4/14 – US bred
5/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Mare winners
3/14 – Trained by David Barron
0/14 – Winners from stall 1
Hareem Queen won the race in 2020
Royal Birth won the race in 2017

TQ VERDICT: With 10 of the last 14 winners aged 4 or 5 years-old, then of the seven runners this is a plus for Belle Anglaise, Rocket Action and MOSS GILL. The last of that trio gets the nod though as the clear top-rated in the field off a mark of 108 – that’s 6lbs higher than his nearest rival – Blue De Vega. Moss Gill ran the classy Battaash to 3 lengths in the G1 Nunthorpe last season and that form is standout here. He’s also got a good AW record with a win and two seconds from just three runs and even though having never raced here at Lingfield is a slight worry, there is no reason to think it won’t suit. Hollie Doyle rides Rocket Action for the Robert Cowell yard and can go well too, but drawn 7 of 7 might not be ideal. Cowell also has the already mentioned Blue Vega and would have a squeak, while the in-form Lord Riddiford was a good winner at Wolves last time, but with no winners from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings, this would be a worry. Ornate should make a bold bid from the front, but is likely to get collared, so of those at bigger prices a chance is also taken on the 2017 winner – ROYAL BIRTH (e/w). This 10 year-old is no spring chicken but is the only CD winner in the field and might just run better than his odds suggest in a race that will be run at a very fast pace and could be decided by a few split decisions.

 

2.40 - Betway Winter Derby (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f ITV4

16/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
15/18 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
14/18 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
14/18 – Had run at Lingfield previously
14/18 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
14/18 – Had raced at either Lingfield (10) or Kempton (4) last time out
12/18 – Winning distance – less than a length
12/18 – Placed in their last race
12/18 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
12/18 – Came from the top 3 in the market
12/18 – Won at Lingfield previously
12/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
11/18 – Won their last race
9/18 – Won at least 6 times previously
8/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (last 2 runnings)
2/18 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (2 of last 8)
2/18 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of last 6)
2/18 – Trained by John Gosden (last 2 runnings)
Just 2 of the last 14 Winter Derby Trial winners have gone onto win the Winter Derby
The average winning SP in the 18 renewals is 11/2

TQ VERDICT: Just the five runners – which is a shame – but actually not a bad little race with most having a chance. Ryan Moore catches the eye riding the Andrew Balding runner Johnny Drama, who is the top-rated in the field. He’s won 4 of his 5 runs on the AW, but was beaten over 1m2f last time here and that would be a worry, with his better AW runs coming over 1m4f – you just wonder if he might get outpaced at a crucial stage. It’s hard to fault Father Of Jazz after two easy wins at Lingfield and Chelmsford, but this is a big step up and might be worth taking on. Felix was a close second in the Winter Derby Trial here last time and with Hollie Doyle riding can go close – he rarely runs a bad race and has now won 4 of his 7 AW outings. However, the John Gosden yard have won the last two runnings of this and their FOREST OF DEAN is the call. This 5 year-old was only just behind Felix (3rd) in the Trial of this race here last time and even though there is not a lot between the pair, he might just have a bit more to come with his last two runs coming off a big 478-day break. Power Of States makes up the five runners and comes here in form after two recent wins at Wolves from his last three outings, but this is a step up in grade.

 

 

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