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9th May 2021

Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: Sat 24th April 2021

It’s Bet365 Gold Cup day at Sandown Park this Saturday while the ITV cameras are also heading to Leicester & Haydock for a couple more races – As always, we’ve got all the LIVE TV ITV trends ……

Yes, a huge day ahead this Saturday as we end the jumps season with a cracking card at Sandown – four LIVE races on ITV, including the Bet365 Gold Cup - while there is also LIVE action at Haydock and Leicester – with their races are covered too.

So, put the odds in your favour – if a certain trend has happened many times in the past then there is a good chance of it repeating itself. As always, we hope these stats help direct you towards a few winners and pay for the weekend expenses.

Let’s get started!

 

SANDOWN HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

1.55 - bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m110y ITV

Just two previous runnings
No race in 2020 (Covid)
Getaway Trump (Paul Nicholls) 9/2 fav won the race in 2019
Ballymoy (Nigel Twiston-Davies) 13/2 jfav won the race in 2018
2/2 – Winners carried 11-7 or more in weight
2/2 – Winning favourites
2/2 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
Trainer Harry Fry has a 29% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 26% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Chris Gordon is just 1 from 26 with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Seamus Mullins is just 1 from 31 with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton is just 1 from 30 with his hurdlers at the track

TQ VERDICT: No real trends to note here with just two previous runnings. But we have seen both those races go to the favourite. It’s also been a good race for 5 and 6 year-olds, but most will fall into this age bracket, while the Nicholls camp won the race when it was last staged in 2019 – they run Celestial Force and Flic Ou Voyou. The first-named 6 year-old is sure to be popular and is yet to finish out of the first three from 6 runs over hurdles. But his recent second at Newton Abbot was a tad disappointing for me. The other Nicholls runner – Flic Ou Voyou. is the top-weight and looks interesting now into a handicap. He’s yet to be out of the first three from his 11 runs over hurdles and seems to love the quick ground – he can go well. The Harry Fry and Nicky Henderson yards both have good records at the track with their hurdlers – they run Get Back Get Back and Lilly Pedlar, while, in contrast, the Dan Skelton team are just 1 from 30 – they run Rockstar Ronnie and Gylo. Herbiers and Royaume Uni are closely-matched on their 1st and 2nd at Ascot last time out, but the two I like here are PASVOLSKY (e/w) and the already mentioned LILY PEDLAR (e/w). The former had Flic Ou Yoyou and Royaume Uni in behind last time at Kempton and is only up 4lbs for that effort. Trip, ground and track look fine and having now won three of his last 4 races, is clearly a horse on the up. Lily Pedlar hails from the powerful Henderson yard that have a 26% strike-rate with their hurdlers here. This 6 year-old was a fair third (of 12) last time out in a G2 Mares’ Hurdle at Newbury, but got also got hampered that day so did well to only be beaten 4 ½ lengths. She also stays further than this 2m trip, so expect connections to make full use of that stamina – Nico de Boinville rides.

2.30 - bet365 Oaksey Chase (Grade Two) (for The Menorah Challenge Trophy) Cl1 2m6f ITV

Just 6 previous running
6/6 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
6/6 – Didn’t win last time out
5/6 – Officially rated 161-169 (inc)
5/6 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
4/6 – Irish bred
4/6 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/6 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/6 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/6 – Winning favourites
Owner Diana Whateley won the race in 2014, 2015, 2016 & 2017
The average SP in the last 6 runnings is 5/2
Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have won the race in the past too

TQ VERDICT: Just the four runners here. It would be a huge shock if the 133-rated Militarian was good enough, while despite winning well last time out at Stratford, this is a big step up in grade for the Dan Skelton runner – Born Survivor. So, that leaves us with Mister Fisher and FRODON. The former has been threatening to fulfil his potential a few times but just when you think he’s got his act together he throws in another poor run. He won well at Cheltenham in December, but has since been pulled up in the Ryanair Chase at the Festival and then unseated his jockey at Aintree last time out in the Bowl. Yes, this will be a lot easier but he’s got a fair bit to prove for me. The safer call, therefore, has to be FRODON, who was the shock winner of the King George at Kempton back on Boxing Day. He’s found the trip (3m2f) too far in the Gold Cup last time, but still ran well for a long way in that race. The better ground here and drop back to 2m6f will be a huge plus for him and his front-running style can make it hard for the others to peg him back. Regular pilot, Bryony Frost continues in the saddle.

3.05 - bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

17/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
17/17 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
15/17 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
14/17 – Aged 9 or younger
14/17 – Came from the top three in the betting
14/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Had raced at Sandown (fences) before
12/17 – Rated 160 or higher
12/17 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
10/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
7/17 – Irish bred
7/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Winning favourite
5/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (inc last 4)
4/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won it 5 times in all)
4/17 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/17 – Ridden by Nico de Boinville (last 4)
3/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/17 – Ridden by Jamie Moore
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
Altior won the race in 2017, 2018 and 2019
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 15/8

TQ VERDICT: A cracking renewal of this G1. We’ve got the three-time winner of the race in Altior running, plus last month’s Champion Chaser – Put The Kettle On – making the trip over. Add in the useful Sceau Royal and the improving Greaneteen, then it’s a decent race in the making. Expect to see the other De Bromhead runner – Ornua – lead early on and with Rachael Blackmore in the saddle, then you never know! But the ratings suggest he’s got plenty to find being rated 20lbs inferior to Altior. Sceau Royal was only 3 ¾ lengths off Put The Kettle On in the Champion Chase and being a proven CD winner here, then he’s a big player with the race likely to be run to suit his hold-up style. The old Altior would have been the clear favourite for this and having had a stop-start last few seasons it would be great to see him land another big one before connections deciding what to do with him next season. He’s still the top-rated in the field and is 5-from-5 here at Sandown. It’s hard to fault his chance, other than his advancing years (11) and the fact he had to miss another Cheltenham. He didn’t look himself when last seen at Kempton in the Desert Orchid Chase and finished very tired that day too. So, the safer call looks to be PUT THE KETTLE ON. She’s the one to beat on this season’s form and getting the 7lbs mares’ allowance helps, but my only niggle is that her last four wins have all been at Cheltenham. We all know she loves Prestbury Park but the good news is she’s also won at other tracks in Ireland (5 different ones). Therefore, there is every chance this first run at Sandown will be fine and the stiff finish – just like Cheltenham – should also suit. At only 7 years-old, she should also have more in the locker and regular jockey – Aidan Coleman – who is yet to lose on the horse (4-from-4) remains in the saddle. I think the improving Greaneteen, who was only 2 lengths back in the Champion Chase, can also go well on ground he’ll love and rates the danger to the selection.

 

3.40 - bet365 Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y ITV

17/17 – Had raced in the last 63 days
16/17 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/17 – Carried 11-0 or less
14/17 – Had won over 3m or further before
13/17 – Aged 9 or younger
12/17  - Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Had raced in the last 25 days
10/17 – Officially rated 140 or higher
10/17 – Came from the top 7 in the betting market
9/17 – Finished 4th or worse last time out
5/17 – Won with 10st in weight
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out
2/17 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out
2/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/17 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
0/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 14/1

Other Key Bet365 Gold Cup Facts

The last winning favourite was Beau in 2000
Just one 6 year-old winner since 1959
24 of the last 29 (83%) winners carried less than 11st
8 year-olds have won 6 of the last 17 runnings (35%)
13 of the last 17 (76%) winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times

TQ VERDICT: The first thing to note here is that this race has been a graveyard for the favourites in recent years – the last winning market leader was in 2000. At this stage the betting suggests the Blackmore/De Bromhead partnership of Plan Of Attack may go off as the jolly. This 8 year-old was going okay in the Kim Muir last time out until falling three out. There was every chance he’d have played a big part in the finish that day and if none-the-worse for that tumble can go well with the drying ground a plus too. However, there is quite a big weight trend in this race too – 24 of the last 29 winners carried less than 11st, so if that’s to be repeated the top 11 on the card have this as a negative, including Plan Of Attack. Other notable runners with 11st+ on their backs are Enrilo, El Presente and Kitty’s Light. In fact, there are only five runners with 10-12 or less in weight in the race – Larry, Checkitout, Doing Fine, Bob Mahler and Supreme Escape. Course winner, Enrilo, will attract support being from the Nicholls yard, but with only 4 runs over fences that lack of experience for a race like this would be a worry. El Presente and the consistent Crosspark, who is topweight and loves to finish second, can go well too, while we’ve also a past winner of the race in THE YOUNG MASTER (e/w) This 12 year-old isn’t getting any younger though, but will love the ground and is rated 6lbs lower than his 2016 win, plus he was also second in this race in 2019. With Kevin Brogan booked too and able to claim 5lbs, then he could just go well again in a race he loves. The other pick is IRISH PROPHECY (e/w), from the Emma Lavelle yard. This 8 year-old is stepping up in trip but having run on well last time at Ascot suggests it’s worth a crack. That run also came off a break of 136 days so can be expected to have improved for it and is another that will be fine in the drying ground. Add in he’s also a course winner, albeit over hurdles, then we know the track suits, and the Lavelle yard have been doing well with their runners overall in the last few weeks.


HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

2.50 – Casumo Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Cl2 7f ITV

7 previous runnings
6/7 – Aged 5 or younger
5/7 – Carried between 8-7 and 9-5 in weight
5/7 – Came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
6/7 – Won over 7f in the past
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
5/7 – Irish bred
5/7 – Winners from stalls 1-5 (inc)
3/7 – Rated between 96-100 (inc)
3/7 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Trained by William Haggas
2/7 – Trained by John Quinn
Trainer William Haggas has won race in 2016 and 2017
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 36% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ed Walker has a 27% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Charles Hills has a 24% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 26% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track

TQ VERDICT: With 6 of the last 7 winners aged 5 or younger, then Mustarrid, Firmament, Admirality, Another Batt, Cold Stare and Sir Maximilian are overlooked. It’s been a good race for horses drawn low between 1-5 too – this is good news for Fox Champion, Firmament, Dreamloper, Mustarid and Another Batt. The Charles Hills yard have a good strike-rate here with their older horses, so their Persuasion is respected and this one will also have William Buick riding, who also does well here. CD winner, Marshal Dan, is another to note, as is the consistent Gobi Sunset. However, it’s hard to get away from the Ed Walker runner here – DREAMLOPER. This 4 year-old was last seen winning at Ascot in September over a mile so we know she stays further than this 7f trip. The yard have a 27% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track, while draw 3 looks ideal. Of the rest, another yard that does well here is the Ralph Beckett camp – they run FOX CHAMPION (e/w). This 5 year-old also has a good draw in 1, and having been rated as high as 110 in the past, has dropped to a mark of 95. The switch from the Hannon yard could help the horse find some old form and he’s also been gelded since his last run.

LEICESTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.10 – Elusive Bloodstock EBF Stallions King Richard III Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 7f ITV

11/11 – Favourites placed in the top 3
10/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Winners from stalls 2-5 (inc)
9/11 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/11 – Won at least twice in the past
9/11 – Had won over 7f in the past
8/11 – Irish bred winners
8/11 – Last ran 2+ months ago
8/11 – Officially rated 107 or higher
8/11 – Didn’t win last time out
7/11 – Unplaced last time out
4/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Hugo Palmer
2/11 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/11 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
0/11 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/2

TQ VERDICT: A tight little race, with just five runners. All five are rated 102+ so a case can be made for them all. Mums Tipple ran well at Lingfield over 1m last time (2nd), but the time before was a good winner at Wolves over 7f, so the return to this trip is a plus. He can go well, but it won’t be easy having to give 3lbs away to all the others. Lord Campari won on his reappearance at Newbury last season and looks the sort to have more to come, while Shine So Bright has a bit to prove for me after now not winning in 10 races. So, that leaves POGO as the call. This Charles Hills runner is the top-rated in the field (112) too and was last seen running a close second in the G2 Challenge Stakes at HQ. This drop into Listed company will make things easier. He’s gone well fresh in the past too and loves this quick ground. Beat Le Bon makes up the five runners, with Hollie Doyle riding.

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