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15th October 2021

Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: Sat 27th March 2021

Something for everyone this Saturday as new turf season gets going at Doncaster on Saturday, with the ultra-competitive Lincoln Handicap as the feature, while there is also decent all-weather racing at Kempton with that include the Listed Magnolia Stakes, plus jumping fans will get their fix at Newbury.

The ITV cameras are showing eight races across the three venues and, as always, we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats.

 

KEMPTON Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.45 –Ladbrokes Magnolia Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV

13/13 – Aged 6 or younger
12/13 – Had won over 1m2f before
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/13 – Drawn in stalls 1-4 (inc)
8/13 – Unplaced last time out
8/13 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
7/13 – Winning favourites
6/13 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
6/13 – Had won at Kempton before
5/13 – Unplaced favourites
4/13 – Irish bred
3/13 – Trained by William Haggas
3/13 – Trained by John Gosden

TQ VERDICT: Just the five runners here. Course winners Fayloq, from the William Haggas yard, and Sky Defender, from the Mark Johnston camp, will have that track knowledge in their corner and have to be ones for the shortlist.  The Haggas yard also won this race in 2011 and 2016. War Leader has plenty to find on these terms, so can be ruled out, while the 110-rated Stormy Antarctic certainly has the form to take this, but I’d just be concerned that he’s back from a wind op and is now eight races without a win. So, that leaves us with the Gosden-trained GLOBAL GIANT. This 6 year-old is the top-rated in the field (113) and despite running well down the field in the lucrative Saudi Cup last time, that run was clearly too bad to be true and it’s possible the track, trip over or heat were excuses. He’s a proven Listed winner too and the step back up in trip to 1m2f is a plus. The yard also won this prize in 2012 and 2015.


2.15 –
Ladbrokes Rosebery Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) Cl2 1m3f ITV

16/16 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
13/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/16 – Had won between 2-4 times before
11/16 – Rated between 89 and 99
11/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/16 – Carried 8-13 or more in weight
9/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
9/16 – Aged 4 years-old
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
2/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/16 – Winning favourites

TQ VERDICT: Both of the Al Maktoum runners – Al Zaragaan and Almighwar – are proven course winners at the track but with the first-named also proven over this trip then AL ZARAGAAN gets the nod. This William Haggas runner has won his last three in decent fashion and a 5lb hike in the ratings for his recent win at Lingfield looks fair. He’s had a 3-month break since, but is a horse that’s gone well off a break in the past so that’s not a worry. With only four career runs there should be more in the locker to come and he could easily progress out of the handicap ranks onto better things. Of the rest, the consistent United Front will be fitter than most after a good spell over the winter with a string of 1’s and 2’s next to his name. Master The Stars should be better for a recent third at this track too, but the main danger to the Maktoum runners is DARK PINE. The David Loughnane yard do well at the track with their runners and this 4 year-old has been in great form, winning his last two. He beat a horse called Arji the last twice and that runner has since franked the form by winning easily up at Wolves last weekend. The only potential negative looks to be this will his first run at the course, but he’s clearly an improving sort and there is no obvious reason why the track won’t suit.

 

DONCASTER Horse Racing Trends

2.00 – Unibet Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV

Just 7 previous running
7/7 – Last ran 4+ months ago
7/7 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Rated 106+
6/7 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
6/7 – Had won over at least 1m before
6/7 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
5/7 – Winners from stalls 2 or 4
4/7 – Had won 6+ times before
4/7 – Winning favourites
4/7 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/7 – Trained by Roger Varian (3 of last 4)
2/7 – Won last time out

TQ VERDICT: Plenty of big yards on show again here, including the Roger Varian camp, who has won three of the last four runnings. They run Father Of Jazz this year and after a decent spell on the AW this season (3 wins), then he might be fitter than most. Yes, he was beaten in the Winter Derby last time, but this drop back to Listed grade will help and the shorter trip might also be in his favour after just getting run out of things late on last time. He does, however, stay the longer trips well, while the return to turf (only his second run on the grass) could bring out further improvement – the only slight niggle is that 6 of the last 7 winners were aged between 5-7 years-old. With that in mind the two 5 year-olds – Space Traveller and TOP RANK tick a lot of boxes. The former is the top-rated in the field (113) and was last seen running 6th (of 15) in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot – this ease in grade makes him a big player, but the fact he’s only had one run since Nov 19 would be a concern. Top Rank has also done well at a higher level – winning a G3 at Haydock last Sept. He’s a horse that’s gone very well fresh too – winning 4 of his 5 career starts off a break. He’s still only had 6 career runs too, but has won four of those and with another winter on his back could have more to come. Of the rest, Juan Elcano, Bounce The Blues and Montatham are others to respect, but with 5 of the last 7 winners coming from stalls 2 or 4, then QAYSAR (2) and TRAIS FLUORS (4) might be worth a small saver too. The former is a proven CD winner too, while the other has some fair form in Ireland and is having his debut for the Mick Channon yard.

2.35 – Unibet Spring Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

15/18 – Carried 8-13 or more
15/18 – Aged 4 years-old
15/18 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
13/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/18 – Won over a mile before
10/18 – Won from a single-figure draw
3/18 – Winners from stalls 3-7 (inclusive)
2/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Won last time out
1/18 – Won a race at Doncaster before
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2010 & 2014
Just 1 winner older than 6 in the last 18 years

TQ VERDICT: With 15 of the last 18 winners aged 4, then this is a big plus for DUBAI SOUQ, INTO FAITH, ACQUITTED, OVERWRITE, MASCAT, AMAYSMONT, CITYZEN SERG, ARTIC VEGA, POET’S LADY and GLOBAL ESTEEM. We’ve also seen 15 of the last 18 winners carry 8-13 or more in weight, so of those mentioned this is a negative for Global Esteem, Poet’s Lady, Arctic Vega and Cityzen Serg. Single-figure drawn horses seem to have just edged it in recent years too – winning 10 of the last 18 – while don’t be too worried if your fancy didn’t run that well last time out, as 15 of the last 18 winners finished fourth or worse last time out. Taking all that into account the two that catch the eye are the Saeed Bin Suroor-trained DUBAI SOUG, and the Richard Fahey runner – AMAYSMONT (e/w). The former has draw 11, but that should just about be okay and being in the middle will give jockey, Eoin Walsh, options. He’s been gelded since his last run, when a poor fourth (of 4) at Ascot, but the horse ran way too free that day over the longer 1m4f trip. The drop back to 1m will suit too and with only six career runs looks the sort to have more improvement to come. The other pick – Amaysmont – hails from the Richard Fahey yard that won this in 2014. This 4 year-old will be fit and ready to run after a decent AW campaign (2 wins) and has been freshened up with a turf campaign in mind since February.

3.10 – Unibet Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

17/17 – Aged 6 or younger
16/17 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
15/17 – Had won over at least 1m before
14/17 – Had won between 2-4 times before
13/17 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
12/17 – Having their first run of the flat season
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
10/17 – Aged 4 years-old
9/17 – Officially rated between 95-100
9/17 – Placed first or second last time out
8/17 – Had raced at Doncaster before
7/17 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
7/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
4/17  - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by William Haggas
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/17 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/17 – Trained by John Quinn
2/17 – Ridden by James Doyle (last 2)
9 of the last 10 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 34 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 13/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

TQ VERDICT: The previous race will give us a few pointers regrading the draw, so do take note of that. In recent years though horses from stalls 12 and 16 have a decent record of being placed (1 win each too) – with that in mind Grove Ferry (12) and Ouzo (16) might be worth noting in the betting. All of the last 17 winners were aged 6 or younger, so that might be seen as a negative for the older horses in the race – the last horse aged older than 6 to win the Lincoln was in 1998. The horses aged 7+ in the race are - Librisa Breeze, Born To Be Alive, Kynren, Graphite and Scottish Summit. It’s another race the Richard Fahey yard like to target too – they won the race in 2012 and 2015 recently – but they don’t have a runner this year! In the last 3 or 4 seasons we’ve also seen a bit of an influx of the slightly bigger yards running horses here and that’s backed up with the Charlie Appleby yard winning two of the last four – they run the 4 year-old, Eastern World here and after a smooth success over at Meydan last month, looks a decent prospect for the Godolphin team and could easily be better than a handicapper. But the only niggle is that he ran here over 7f last September and was a beaten favourite. Yes, he’s been gelded since and that’s clearly worked after that recent win in Dubai, but he was smashed 13 lengths in that Donny race in Sept by the Gosden runner – HAQEEGY. This 4 year-old is up 8lbs for that win, but it’s interesting that connections are offsetting much of that with Beniot De La Sayette’s 7lb claim. Draw 10 looks okay as this will give him options to go higher or lower, and even though he’s got a small bit to prove over the trip he’s another that’s been gelded since his last run and that might just eke out a bit more improvement – Gosden won this in 2009. The smooth travelling Brentford Hope can’t be ruled out either, but might have liked softer ground, while River Nymph, Brunch, Ascension and Danyah are others to note. But with 9 of the last 10 winners carrying between 9st and 9st4lbs the other of interest is the Charlie Fellowes-trained KING OTTOKAR (e/w). This 5 year-old hasn’t quite progressed as Charlie had liked, but he’s slipping down the handicap still and has threatened to win one of these big handicaps. He’s run well at the track before too and we know he stays further (has won over 1m2f). Any rain would be a help, but he’s run okay on quicker ground in the past too. The first-time cheekpieces are also an interesting addition.

3.45 - Unibet Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

15/16 – Aged 7 or younger
14/16 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
14/16 – Had won no more than 5 times before
14/16 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
14/16 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/16 – Raced at Doncaster, Ascot, Lingfield or Windsor last time out
11/16 – Had won over 6f before
11/16 – Last ran 4 months or longer ago
10/16 – Rated 102+
9/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/16 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/16 – Unplaced favourites
3/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites (or joint)
3/16 – Had won at Doncaster before
No winners from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 11 runnings
7 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 9-16 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

TQ VERDICT: We’ve not seen a winner from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 11 runnings, so this might put some off Extrodinair (1) and Brando (2). With 7 of the last 11 winners, however, hailing from stalls 9-16 (inc), then this is a plus for JUST FRANK, CHIEFOFCHIEFS and AINSDALE. 14 of the last 16 winners also carried 9-2 or more, while 15 of the last 16 winners were aged 7 or younger, with 14 of the last 16 successful horses aged between 4-6 years-old. The 116-rated Brando is the one to beat on the ratings, but at the age of 9 now he’s not getting any younger and is now 12 races without a win. CD winner Summerghand has been running well on the AW and should be in the mix, while Tis Marvellous was a fair fourth in this race 12 months ago too. But the two I’ll be having an interest in are JUST FRANK and AINSDALE (e/w). The former is still only a 3 year-old but as a result gets in here with only 8-9 to carry. He stays further than this 6f trip too so that is sure to be exploited and ran well in a Listed race (2nd) here at the track last October. Then, Ainsdale, who might have liked a bit more rain, also looks the sort to improve this season at just 4 years-old. He was last seen winning at HQ in heavy ground back in October, but has gone close over 5f on better ground so is capable of running well on a quicker surface.

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends

2.50 –BetVictor Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 28% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 20% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a 18% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton is only 4-from-73 (5%) with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Gary Moore is only 3-from-76 (4%) with his hurdlers at the track

TQ VERDICT: Some exciting sorts on show here, including Hooper from the Nicky Henderson camp, who has won it’s last two in great fashion. The yard has a decent 28% record here at the track too and with just 10-8 to carry looks a big player with Nico de Boinville riding. The top-weight Mount Windsor is another that’s been tearing it up this season – winning his last four. The last of those wins came at Fontwell with an easy 22 length success, but the worry would be that he’s up 13lbs for that and also into a better race. He’s sure to make a bold bid and I certainly can’t rule him out, but the 11-12 weight burden in this higher grade might just take it’s toll. The Gary Moore runner – Hudson De Grugy – is another that’s done nothing wrong this season, winning his last two. He seemed to get better the further they went at Sandown last time over 2m, but did seem in trouble at one point in that race. I feel his jumping needs to better too, but the longer trip here (2m3f) certainly looks a good move and has to enter the mix – you just feel he might be better on a softer surface though. So, the call is the Paul Nicholls runner – GOOD BALL – who wasn’t disgraced behind a fair sort in Gowel Road last time. This 4 year-old gets in here with only 10-9 to carry, but is another that should be better over this longer trip after looking a bit one-paced over 2m last time here. He’s a course winner here too though and could have more to offer with just 2 runs over hurdles and also being into a handicap for the first time.

3.25 - EBF & TBA Mares´ "National Hunt" Novices´ Hurdle Finale Limited Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV

15/16 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
15/16 – Won between 1-2 times before (hurdles)
12/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 –  Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/16 – Aged 6 years-old
8/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Ran at Huntingdon last time out
2/16 – Trained by Oliver Sherwood
2/16 – Trained by Charlie Longsdon
12 of the last 14 winners carried 11-3 or less in weight
Annie Mc won the race in 2019

TQ VERDICT: A very competitive mares only Novice Hurdle here, but with the Nicky Henderson yard having a good record with their hurdlers (28%) and have also won this twice since 2011. The Seven Barrows team run an army too – Paris Dixie, Buttsbury Lady, Lilly Pedlar and Docte Dina. You can certainly make a case for all four, but with 15 of the last 16 winners aged 5 or 6, then their 7 year-old Docte Dina does have this age trend against her. You’d also feel that jockey Nico de Boinville would have had a bit of a say on who he rides of the Henderson quartet - the fact he’s picked LILLY PEDLAR (e/w) catches the eye. She was well beaten into second last time at Taunton but the better ground and longer trip here will suit and she seems to have a nice racing weight at 10-10. The Colin Tizzard runner – Rose Of Arcadia – won at Wincanton last time out and the form of that has been boasted since with the second – Fable – winning twice since. The in-form Olly Murphy (0-from-18) and Dan Skelton (4-from-73) yards have poor records at the track, so their Alpha Carinae and Marada have this to overcome. LITTLE RIVER BAY (e/w) is the only CD winner in the field and the Hobbs yard have a decent 23% record with their hurdlers here, but she does need to bounce back from a poor run last time, where the heavy ground was to blame. On a better surface and with a month off, she could easily bounce back and is worth an interest too. Of the rest, Nicholls runs Kilmington Rose, so this one has to be respected with only 10-5 to carry, on what is also her first run in a handicap.

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