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16th January 2021

Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: Sat 2nd Jan 2021

Another new year and there is no let-up in the racing action as the ITV cameras head to Ayr & Sandown to take in seven races across the two venues. The Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown is one of the clear highlights as the latest set of novices' look to follow in the hoof-prints of the likes of Summerville Boy, Yorkhill, Finian's Oscar, Elixir Du Nutz and Fiddlerontheroof, who have won the race in recent years.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at TQ with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

1.50 – Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap Chase

14/14 – Won over at least 2m (chase) previously
13/14 – Ran within the last 2 months
13/14 – Priced 17/2 or shorter
11/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/14 – From the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Won between 1-4 times over fences in the UK previously
10/14 – Officially rated 134 or higher
10/14 – Favourites placed
9/14 – Never raced at Sandown
9/14 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
8/14 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/14 – Irish bred
7/14 – Winning Favourites
7/14 – Unplaced last time out
4/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/14 – Went onto win a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (Champion Chase, Grand Annual)
4/14 – Won their last race
3/14 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
Trainer Philip Hobbs has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
Locker Room Talk won the race in 2020
Darebin won the race in 2019 and was 4th in 2020

TQ VERDICT: Moonlighter likes to get on with things but is returning here off the back of a fall, while the Gary Moore runner Early Du Lemo is also coming here off the back of a tumble. DAREBIN, who won this in 2019, is another runner for the Moore camp and was a winner over this course and distance last time out, but this is a much better race and he’s up 8lbs for that. On a plus, he gets in here with just 10-0 to carry, but is running from 2lbs out of the handicap. However, he’s still rated 2lbs lower than when winning this race in 2019 and is 4lbs lower than when 4th 12 months ago. Of the rest, the consistent Ibleo looks a big player and the one to beat after his excellent second at Cheltenham last time out but is up another 3lbs in the ratings. Paddy’s Poem and Hollywoodien return from breaks so are worth checking in the market, but the other of interest is the Paul Nicholls-trained SAN BENEDETO. Yes, he’s been poor of late, but has been running in good races and continues to drop down the ratings to suggest he’s starting to look well-handicapped – his last win came off a 4lbs higher mark, while the drop back to 2m looks an interesting move. He’s also run well at the track before and don’t forget he ran Altior to 3 ¼ lengths here back in 2018 in the Celebration Chase.

 

2.25 – Unibet Tolworth Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m110y ITV4


15/16 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
15/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
15/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Priced  5/1 or shorter
14/16 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
13/16 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
13/16 – Came from the top three in the market
12/16 – Won last time out
11/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
10/16 – Won by an Irish bred horse
8/16 – Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
8/16 – Winning Favourites
5/16 – Ran at either Sandown (3) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
3/16 – Won by the Colin Tizzard yard (3 of the last 4)
3/16 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
3/16 – Ran at Sandown before
2/16 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/16 – Won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle later that season (Summerville Boy, 2018 & Noland, 2006)
1/16 - Won the Neptune Investment Hurdle later that season (Yorkhill 2016)
5 or 6 years-old have won 22 of the last 28 runnings
Since 1988 ALL winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 3/1

TQ VERDICT: Some very exciting young hurdlers on show here, including the Harry Fry-trained METIER, who has won both starts over hurdles since joining the yard from Ireland. He has some fair flat form to his name over in Ireland and seems to have hit the ground running over the sticks, winning easily on both starts. The interesting thing is that he’s also won over 2m2f so that proven stamina, in what is likely to be testing conditions, will be a big plus. He’s acted well in this sort of ground too and Sean Bowen riding again is the icing on the cake. The dangers can come from the Scudamore-trained Do Your Job, who has won two of his last three and wasn’t disgraced in second last time out, while the Jane Williams runner – Galice Macalo – ran the useful Benson close here last time out and gets a handy 7lbs mare allowance. Finally, Adrimel is also set to be a big player on what we’ve seen of late. He's a proven CD winner here at the track and will have Richard Johnson riding. He was down the field in the Cheltenham Bumper back in March but after a wind op is now 2-from-2 over hurdles. But he’s rated 10lbs inferior to the selection and I’m hoping those ratings hold up to be true.


3.00 - Unibet Veterans´ Handicap Chase Final (The Final of The 2015 Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m37y ITV4

Just 5 previous runnings
Trainers Anthony Honeyball, Venetia Williams, Evan Williams, Charlie Longsdon and David Pipe are past winners
5/5 – Ran in last 4 weeks
4/5 – 4+ wins over fences
4/5 – Unplaced last time out
4/5 – winners aged 11 or 12 years-old
4/5 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
3/5 – Unplaced favourites
3/5 – Officially rated between 135-145
2/5 – Winning favourite (joint)
Jepeck won this race in 2020

TQ VERDICT: One for the oldies in this Veterans race here, with all the runners needing to be aged 9+. However, all the runners are actually aged 11 or older and we’ve some well-known faces in the line-up. Late Romantic (also has an entry at Ayr) will be popular if running after winning well last time out at Haydock and is the only last-time out winner in the field. But he’s up another 5lbs here and made a few mistakes on his only previous run here at the track. The consistent Crosspark should be in the mix but does have a habit of coming second at the moment. Minellacelebration, Strong Pursuit, Sametegal and Potters Legend can go well, but I’m happy to stick with the two horses that ran well in this race 12 months ago – JEPECK and THEATRE GUIDE. The former won this pot last year and gets in here off the same mark. Yes, he’s been below-par in two races this season (pulled up twice), but you suspect this race would have been the target and he’s got a useful 7lbs claiming jockey on too. Then Theatre Guide, who was a close third in the race last year, can go well too. He’s no spring chicken at 14 (going on 15), but has returned this season in good order when a close second to Potters Legend at Warwick last time out. He’s a pound lower than last year too and will have every assistance from the saddle with Paddy Brennan riding. Of the rest, Ballydine, Burtons Well and Fingerontheswitch represent trainers that have won this race in the past.

3.35 – Unibet Casino Deposit £10 Get £40 Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m110y ITV4

13/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
12/15 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
12/15 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
11/15 – Unplaced last time out
9/15 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
8/15 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
7/15 – Priced a double-figure price in the betting
7/15 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
7/15 – Went onto finish unplaced in a Cheltenham Festival race that season
6/15 – From the top 3 in the betting
6/15 – Officially rated between 127 and 132
5/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Irish bred
2/15 – Trained by Oliver Sherwood
2/15 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/15 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/15 – Winning favourites
4 of the last 7 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
Monsieur Lecoq won this race in 2019

 

TQ VERDICT: You can expect the Fergal O’Brien front runner – Totterdown – to take them along at a fair old lick here, but it will be a shock if he’s good enough to stay there. Monsieur Lecoq was a good winner of this race in 2019 but that came off a mark of 122 and is now rated 145 and has in the main struggled since that win. On a plus, he has run well both times he’s run at Sandown so the return here could spark him back to life. Highway One O Two is useful and is interesting back over hurdles after not really taking to fences the last twice (failing to complete both times). The Pink’n should be in the mix too after some fine seconds this season, but the call is the Paul Nicholls runner FRIEND OR FOE. This 5 year-old was a nice winner at Wincanton last time out and despite being up a harsh 13lbs for that, looks the sort to have more to come. He’s won 3 of his 9 hurdles starts now, with jockey Harry Cobden riding him in all three of those successes. Of the rest, Guard Your Dreams and Gemirande where both nice winners last time out and shouldn’t be discounted either.

 

Ayr Horse Racing Betting Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

2.05 – Ayrshire Cancer Support Patient Transport Journeys Handicap Chase Cl3 (5yo+ 0-140) 2m 4 1/2f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Nicky Richards has a 29% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Rose Dobbin has a 23% record with her chasers at the track
Trainer Neil Alexander has 20% record with his chasers at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes has a 31% record riding over fences at the track
Jockey Conor O’Farrell is just 1 from 25 riding over fences at the track

TQ VERDICT: Clan Legend, Jonniesofa and Charmant are the three course winners in the field so based on that all command respect, but the two I like here are EVANDER and GUITAR PETE. The former caught the eye when winning well at Doncaster last time out – doing it well from the front. He’s up 9lbs for that win but won by 14 lengths and you feel there should be more to come from this Oliver Greenall runner. Then Guitar Pete hails from the Nicky Richards yard that have a decent 29% record with their chasers here and a recent fourth at Wetherby would have blown away the cobwebs after 247 days off the track. Flowery makes up the six runners but is certainly no back number having yet to finish out of the first two from 5 chase runs (3 wins).

2.40 – Support The Injured Jockeys Fund Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Tristan Davidson has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Donald Whillans has an 18% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Richards has a 17% record with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes has a 21% record riding over hurdles at the track
Jockey Harry Reed has a 20% record riding over hurdles at the track
Jockey Ryan Day is just 3 from 15 riding over hurdles at the track

TQ VERDICT: 12 year-old Baby Ticker turned back the clock to win here last time out but is up 5lbs for that win so a lot more is needed. Portstorm is the only other recent winner in the field and is a course winner too, while Big Penny has been consistent all season and should be thereabouts off her light weight. We’ve another Nicky Richards runner in BETTER GETALONG though and I feel he’s starting to look well-handicapped off a mark of 129 having not won since 2018. But he’s run well at the track many times before (winner here too) and the step up to 3m looks an interesting move. The other of interest is the Brian Hughes-ridden ILLEGAL MODEL. This 7 year-old has only run three times over hurdles so should have a lot more to come and certainly wasn’t disgraced when coming a close 5th at Sandown last time out. He’s a pound lower for that and has proven he’s fine on this ground – the champion jockey riding is the final plus.

3.15 – Retraining Of Racehorses (RoR) Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+ 0-150) 3m ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Nicky Richards has a 29% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Neil Alexander has 20% record with his chasers at the track
Jockey Stephen Mulqueen is just 1 from 29 riding over fences at the track

TQ VERDICT: Just the five runners and this race could cut up even more with some having double entries – Late Romantic is also entered at Sandown. Course winners Manetti and Strong Economy are big players, but I think this could be another for the Nicky Richards yard with TALKINGRISKS. This former Scottish National winner ran a cracker behind Yorkhill at Newcastle (4th) last time out and gets in here a pound lower. That last run also came off the back of a wind operation so it made that effort even more encouraging that there could be more in the locker – despite being an 11 year-old! Of the rest, Strong Economy is up a big-looking 9lbs for his last win so has more on his plate, here so the danger can come from MANETTI, who probably needed it last time off a break and over a trip that would have been a tad on the short side. He’s won over 2m5f in the past so the step up to 3m looks interesting and Brian Hughes has been booked to ride.

 

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