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23rd July 2021

Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: Sat 3rd April 2021

More LIVE ITV horse racing action this Saturday as the cameras head to both Haydock and Musselburgh to take in seven races across the two venues.

As always, here at TQ, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle, plus our verdicts!

 

 

HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

 

2.05 – Betway Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Final (A Handicap Hurdle) Cl2 1m7f144y ITV4

Four previous runnings
Trainers Neil King, Donald McCain, Tom George and Nigel Twiston-Davies have won the race before
4/4 – Winners returned between 8/1 and 11/1
3/4 – Winners carried 10-4 or less in weight
3/4 – Irish Bred
3/4 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
3/4 – Rated between 115-119
3/4 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
0/4 – No winning favourite
Trainer Kim Bailey has a 67% record with his hurdles at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton is just 3 from 48 with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Alan King is just 1 from 25 with his hurdlers at the track

TQ VERDICT: Title-chasing jockey, Harry Skelton’s rude here – Vision Du Puy – will be all popular here and heads here in great form too after a nice win at Stratford. But is up 5lbs for that and this is also a better race. The only other winner in the field is the Pam Sly runner – Xcitations – who won well at Fakenham last time out. Chit Balko is the only CD winner in the line-up so commands respect on that, but the call here is the Alan King runner – DINO VELVET and the Kim Bailey entry – SHANTOU EXPRESS. The former hails from a yard that have won this race twice in the last four runnings and continues to drop down the handicap after some average runs. Yes, he’s not won since March 19, but that came off a 4lb higher mark so you feel his turn to get back to winning ways might not be far away – the first-time cheekpieces are an interesting addition too. Then Shantou Express comes from the Kim Bailey yard, who have a cracking 67% record at the track with their hurdlers. This 6 year-old was only beaten a neck at Wetherby last time out on his return run and has now finished in the top two in 5 of his 6 starts over hurdles. A 6lbs rise for that last run looks a tad harsh, but he looks progressive still and will be fine on the ground.

 

2.40 – Betway Challenger Staying Chase Series Final (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m24y ITV4

Four previous runnings
Trainers Alan King (2), Lucy Wadham, and Tom George are the past winners of the race /
4/4 – Didn’t win last time out
4/4 – Won between 0-2 times fences
4/4 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
3/4 – Finished 4th last time out
3/4 – Rated between 125-132
3/4 – Won over 3m (fences) before
3/4 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
3/4 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
3/4 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
0/4 – Winning favourites
Mahlermade won the race in 2019
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 43% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Venetia Williams has a 21% record with his chasers at the track

TQ VERDICT: Just the four past runnings of this race, but with 3 of the last 4 winners carrying 11st or more in weight then this is a plus for the top seven on the card. The Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Checkitout is certainly one to consider. He’s won his last two in great fashion and despite a 6lb rise for the last of those is a chaser on the up. Yes, he’s got a big weight with 11-12, but two runs ago showed he can carry the burden by winning with 12st at Southwell, albeit in a weaker contest. Title chasing jockey Harry Skelton rides Debece for brother Dan and he’s another that should run well, while the Nicky Henderson team have a 43% record at the track with their chasers and try to back that up with their 7 year-old VERSATILITY. This 7 year-old does need to bounce back from a poor run at Sandown last time out, but that was only his first run back from a wind op and a 3 month break so should be better for it. Prior to that he’d run well at Ludlow and Newbury and certainly won’t mind any more drying in the ground. Mahlermade is the only CD winner in the field, but he was well beaten last time In a race with many chances, the consistent Crossley Tender and the lowly weighted Defutre Is Bright, plus course winner Silva Eclipse are others to have on your radar. While the Tom George yard have won this race in the past so their runners Smuggler’s Blues and SUMKINDOFKING (e/w) are two others to note. The last-named was a good winner at Taunton last time out so heads here in great form. Jockey Tom Doggrell has ridden him in his last three too and continues to be able to claim a massive 10lbs off his back.

3.15 – Betway Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Final Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV4

4/4 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
4/4 – Carried 11-4 or less in weight
3/4 – Finished in the top three last time out
3/4 – Had run at the track before
3/4 – Won at least twice over hurdles before
3/4 – Rated between 122-126
3/4 – Unplaced favourites
0/4 – Winning favourites
Trainers Jonjo O’Neill (2), Nick Williams and Stuart Edmunds have won this race before
Trainer Jamie Snowden has a 33% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has a 31% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Alan King is just 1 from 25 with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton is just 3 from 48 with his hurdlers at the track

TQ VERDICT: Another race with many chances, but with ALL of the last four winners aged 6 or 7, plus having 11-4 or more in weight, then this is a plus for REGARDING RUTH, SMALL PRESENT and ASHTOWN LAD. The last-named will be popular with Harry Skelton riding, but has a bit to prove after being pulled-up last time out, while the Dan Skelton yard are just 3 from 48 at the track with their hurdlers. Nicky Henderson’s runner – Colonial Dreams – is respected too and ran better last time when third at Newbury. However, the horse that beat him that day (7 ¼ lengths) was the already-mentioned REGARDING RUTH and I think the form can be upheld. This 7 year-old Lucy Wadham-trained mare did it well that day so the 8lb rise looks within range. Bryony Frost continues in the saddle and she won’t mind if the ground dries out a bit more. Of the rest, the hat-trick-seeking Small Present will catch the eye of punters after two nice wins, but the other pick is the Sam Thomas entry – IWILLDOIT. This 8 year-old ran in that same race Regarding Ruth won (was 2nd), but is much better off this time. He’s 7lbs better off at the weight, plus connections are also putting up 7lb claimer Jack Foley to ride, meaning he’s a got a 14lb pull this time.

MUSSELBURGH Horse Racing Trends (Racing TV/ITV4)


1.50 –
Betway Musselburgh Silver Arrow Handicap Cl3 (4yo+) 7f ITV4

Just 3 previous runnings
Trainers David O’Meara, Kevin Ryan and David Barron have won the race before
Three Saints Bay won the race in 2019
All three winners returned 11/2 or 6/1
All three winners carried between 9-3 and 9-7
All three winners came from stalls 3 or 4
No winning favourite yet

TQ VERDICT: With all three previous winners of this race coming from stalls 3 or 4, then CD winner Muntadab (4) and Hayadh (3), who was runner-up in this race in 2019, are two horses to have in your sights. All three winners also carried between 9-3 and 9-7 in weight, so the top six on the card have this as a plus. Stone Solider is the only recent winner in the field after winning easily at Southwell last month, but you feel he’s got a bit to prove on the turf (1 from 11), with 5 of his 6 career wins coming on the sand surfaces. So, the call here is two more CD winners in the field – MARSHALL DAN – and THREE SAINTS BAY (e/w). The former is a really consistent performer at this level and has hit the top three in 12 of his 19 starts on the grass. He’s gone well fresh in the past too, so the 4 month break is fine and acts on all ground. The other pick actually won this race back in 2019, so we know conditions will suit. Formerly with David O’Meara, but now in the care of Liam Bailey, this 6 year-old is actually 6lbs better off than when he landed this prize a few years ago. He’s got a top record at the track too that reads 4-4-4-1-3-3-2 and is another that won’t mind whatever the ground throws up.

2.25 – Betway Royal Mile Handicap (Class 2) (3yo) 1m ITV4

Only 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
5/5 – Won between 1-2 times before
5/5 – Rated between 81-86 (inc)
5/5 – From stalls 2-6 (inc)
4/5 – Won over 7f or further
3/5 – Won this off a layoff (5+months)
3/5 – Won last time out
2/5 – Trained by Richard Fahey
Trainers Mark Johnston, John Quinn and William Haggas have won the race before

TQ VERDICT: Just the seven runners here, but five of them head here having won their last race. It’s a race the Richard Fahey yard have won twice in the last five runnings, so it’s interesting they run two – Ventura Mutiny and Red Strike. Both won last time out and Ventura Mutiny is also a course winner at the track. Heights of Abraham is the only other course winner in the field, but with five runs is the most exposed runner in the line-up. Hollie Doyle booked to ride Colonel Faulkner and can go well, while Tornadic has won two of it’s three races and has to be considered too. But the Mark Johnston yard are another that have won this race in the past and also have a 21% record with their 3 year-olds at the track – they run Naamoos and FOREST FALCON – both are respected, but it’s the last-named that is of more interest. He bolted-up by 9 lengths at Yarmouth last time out back in September. That come on only his third start so you feel with another winter on his back he’ll be a much stronger horse this season too. Of the rest, with the good record of the Fahey yard in the race, their course winner – VENTURA MUTINY, who won easily over 7f here last time, looks the sort to improve for the step up in trip too.

3.00 – Betway Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+) 5f ITV4

9/9 – Won over 5f before
7/9 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/9 – Drawn 8 or higher
6/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/9 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/9 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
6/9 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
6/9 – Rated between 92 and 98
5/9 – Unplaced favourites
5/9 – Irish bred
4/9 – Ran at the track before
4/9 – Drawn in stalls 15 (2) or 16 (2)
3/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Trained by Mick Appleby (won last 2)
2/9 – Ridden by Alistair Rawlinson
Caspian Prince won this race in 2018

TQ VERDICT: With 7 of the last 9 winners drawn in stalls 8 or higher, then this is good news for VICTORY ANGEL, COPPER KNIGHT, JABBAROCKIE, JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE, ZARZYNI and SON AND SANNIE. The Mick Appleby yard have won the last two runnings, so their Caspian Prince, who was actually one of those successes (2018), has to be considered. He’s still going strong at the age of 12 and was last seen being beaten just under 3 lengths in a G2 in Dubai. Hollie Doyle riding the Ed Walker-trained Came From The Dark will be popular too, as will Justanotherbottle, Jabbarokie, Zarzyni and Mokaatil, who was third in this race in 2019. But the call here is for COPPER KNIGHT (e/w) to bounce back to form. This 7 year-old was runner-up in this race in 2019, but is now 13lbs lower and connections have also booked Ella McCain to ride and claim 5lbs more. The Paul Midgley yard are well represented too with Latin Five, Orvar and SON AND SANNIE (e/w) and it’s the last-named that is of interest too. This 5 year-old has only run seven times on the grass (1 win), so should have more to come and gets in there with just 8-3 to carry. Luke Morris has been booked to ride too and draw 13 looks ideal.

3.35 – Betway Queen's Cup Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) 1m6f ITV4

4/5 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
4/5 – Didn’t win last time out
4/5 – Had run at Musselburgh before
4/5 – Returned a double-figure price
3/5 – Unplaced favourites
3/5 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
1/5 – Winning favourite
Trainers Mark Johnston, Archie Watson, JP Shanahan, Brian Ellison and Jim Goldie have won the race before

TQ VERDICT: Staying will be the order of the day here, so the only distance winner in the field – Alright Sunshine – has to enter the mix. But recent runs over the sticks have been average and he’s got a bit to prove. It’s a race that some trainers have many entries in too – the Mark Johnston yard have five runners, Ian Williams has three and Andrew Balding has two. Of the Balding pair, their Nate The Great should go well and will be fitter than most after a good recent spell on the AW. But he’s up 3lbs for this last win and I’m not sure the drop back from 2m to 1m6f here is a plus. He has, however, won at the track before. Of the Williams runners, Hollie Doyle has been booked to ride Cardano, who heads here on a three-timer after wins at Lingfield, but they came over 1m4f, so this step up in trip is a slight unknown. So, that leaves the Mark Johnston runners for me – they run Themaxwecan, Trumpet Man, King’s Advice, Hochfeld and Notation. It’s hard to rule any out and Johnston is certainly no stranger to popping up with one of his bigger-priced runners, but the two I like are KING’S ADVICE (e/w) and NOTATION (e/w). The former is starting to look well-handicapped off a mark of 97 – having been as high as 112 a few years ago. The visor on for the first time is also interesting and they’ve booked the useful apprentice Andrew Breslin to claim a further 5lbs. Notation didn’t see out the 2m at Newcastle last time out so the drop back in trip will help. This front-runner should also be well suited to the track and prior to that experiment last time over 2m had been running well over shorter trips.

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