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26th February 2021

Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: Sat 6thFeb 2021

More LIVE ITV Racing to take in this Saturday as the cameras are at Sandown, Wetherby and Musselburgh to show nine races across the three meetings. At Sandown the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase is their feature - a contest the classy that jockey Daryl Jacob has won 4 times in the last 6 runnings, plus a contest that we've seen 10 of the last 17 favourites win.

**NOTE - WETHERBY IS NOW CANCELLED DUE TO A WATERLOGGED TRACK**

Up at Wetherby we've the Towton Novices' Chase to enjoy - a race that 10 of the last 15 winners were aged 7 years-old, while up in Scotland it's Scottish County Hurdle day at Musselburgh - 6 year-olds have won 10 of the last 13 renewals.

Also, an added bonus this weekend with last Saturday’s cancelled Cotswold Chase and Cleeve Hurdle from Cheltenham are being rerouted to Sandown and Wetherby.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at TQ with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

 

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Sandown Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.15 – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase Cl2 1m7f119y ITV4

14/14 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
14/14 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
12/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/14 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
11/14 – Aged 9 or younger
10/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
8/14 – Had run over fences at Sandown before (4 won)
7/14 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/14 – Winners that went to race in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
6/14 – Raced at Sandown last time out
5/14 – Carried 10-10 or less
5/14 – Came from outside the top 4 in the betting
5/14 – Aged 7 years-old
6/14 – French bred
4/14 – Had an official rating of exactly 125
4/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/14 – Ridden by Aidan Coleman
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Dolos won this race in 2019
Dolos (7/2) won the race in 2020

TQ VERDICT: We can expect the Nick Williams runner – Moonlight – to try and make a bold bid from the front, but this might just set things up for last year’s winner – DOLOS – repeating the dose of 12 months ago, plus he also landed this prize in 2019! This Paul Nicholls runner will be more at home back down to this trip after not seeing out the 2m4f at Cheltenham last time out and in this race last year he beat a certain First Flow, who has more than franked the form since! The ground is fine too and after being dropped a few pounds from last time is now only a pound higher than 12 months ago. The Henderson-trained Caribbean Boy can give the selection most to think about with the yard boasting a decent 24% record with their chasers at the track.

1.50 – Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4


17/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
17/17 – Won no more than 3 times over fences before
17/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
15/17 – Aged 7 or younger
15/17 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
13/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Defi Du Seuil JLT Novices’ Chase)
12/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/17 – French bred
10/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Aged 7 years-old
6/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/17 – Irish bred
5/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Had run over fences at Sandown before
4/17 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 5 in the RSA Chase
4/17 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob (4 of last 6 winners)
Itchy Feet (7/1) won the race in 2020

TQ VERDICT: A decent renewal of this Novice Chase. The Nicky Henderson yard have won the pot four times since 2013 and in Dame De Compagnie they have a leading chance, especially as this 8 year-old gets the mares’ allowance (8lbs off most). She won well on her chase debut at Ayr recently, but the worry for me was that she was hardly fluent with her jumping – that will be put to the test here with the quick Railway Fences. Sporting John has rather lost his way after a promising novice hurdle campaign in 2019-20, so has a bit to prove, while we can expect the Fergal O’Brien runner – Paint The Dream – to make a bold bid after his improved Newbury win last time out. However, he might just set the race up for the likes of Shan Blue and MESSIRE DES OBEAUX, who are very hard to split for me. The former has done nothing wrong in winning all three chase starts this season and has caught the eye with his jumping. But the slight worry could be all those chase wins came on good-to-soft ground. However, he’s won heavy so we know he handles it and we also know he stays a lot further than this 2m4f trip – that will help in conditions. But he’s also yet to race here at Sandown, which must be a tiny negative. So, the King runner - MESSIRE DES OBEAUX – just edges it. This 9 year-old is a late comer to chasing but that’s only because he’s had issues and was off the track for 1034 days between 2017 and 2020. But he’s caught the eye in winning his two starts over fences and it’s now easy to see why Alan King and connections kept him in training. He firmly put a useful sort in Protektorat in his place at Wincanton last time out and being a former winner over hurdles here then the course should suit. Heavy ground is a slight worry, but he’s won on soft and run okay on heavy to suggest it will be fine. He’s a strong traveller, that’s been jumping well and might just have things set up for him here to pick them off up the Sandown hill.

 

2.20 – Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m RTV  

 

17/17 – Officially rated 151 or higher
16/17 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (8 had won)
15/17 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
15/17 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
14/17 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
12/17 – Priced 7/1 or less
12/17 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
11/17 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
11/17 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time
11/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Unplaced last time out
7/17 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/17 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
6/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (5 wins in total)
2/17 – Won by the Oliver Sherwood yard
1/17 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
1/17 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase (Frodon, 2019)
1/17 – Favourites
10 of the last 13 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 15/2
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup

2020 Winner: SANTINI (N Henderson) 13/8

TQ VERDICT: Rerouted from the cancelled Cheltenham ‘Trials Day’ meeting last weekend and the good news is we’ve still got a cracking line-up! Yes, some big names are on show here, including former Gold Cup winner – Native River – last year’s Gold Cup second and winner of this race 12 months ago – Santini – and the popular grey Bristol De Mai. A case can be made for all three. Starting with Bristol De Mai, I think the jury was still out about his form at Cheltenham, but the change of venue to Sandown might be in his favour – his two runs over fences read 2-1 after landing today’s Scilly Isles Chase back in 2016, while, as we know, he returned better than ever to beat Clan Des Obeaux in the Betfair Chase at his beloved Haydock back in November. He goes well fresh and acts well on heavy ground – it’s hard to crab his chance. Native River isn’t getting any younger at 11, but will love the stamina test this race will provide in the ground and ran well on his return at Aintree last month (3rd) in the Many Clouds Chase. This will, however, be his first ever run here at Sandown. There is no reason to think it won’t suit and he’ll love the stiff finish, but you just wonder if the quick Railway Fences will be up his street. Lake View Lad was the shock winner of that Aintree race already mentioned (Native River 3rd), with Santini in second, so the trio are closely matched, but I think SANTINI might just like conditions the best. He’ll be looking to become the first ever back-to-back winner of this race, although See More Business did win the prize twice (not in consecutive seasons). He had Bristol De Mai 3 ½ lengths back 12 months ago and followed that up with a neck second in the Gold Cup. This season he’s not fired as yet but has had excuses the last twice. He probably just needed the run at Aintree, while the Kempton track on quicker ground in the King George probably wasn’t ideal – he was still only 10 lengths off the winner. With this more likely to be a slog and with those runs under his belt he’s taken to go well again in his bid to defend his Cotswold Chase crown. While the switch to Sandown is fine for him too – having won over fences here in 2019! Saint Calvados is certainly no back number either after his fourth in the King George and is a past heavy ground winner – but you feel he’d got his stamina to prove over this longer trip, but he does get a handy 6lbs from the main players, which will help on that score. But, the other pick is YALA ENKI (e/w) – mainly because we know he’s in good form and that he’ll stay! He overcame a bad error to win at Taunton a few weeks ago and before that was third in the Welsh National. He’s been a busy horse of late, but is a very consistent staying chaser that – if the race falls apart – could easily do his own thing and plug on for a place. He also gets a handy 6lbs from the main trio and jockey Bryony Frost gets on well with this old boy.


2.55 – Virgin Bet Warriors Handicap Chase Cl3 (5yo+ 0-140) 2m4f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 24% record with his chasers at the track

TQ VERDICT: No past runnings of this race to go on, but with a 24% record with his chasers at the track, then Nicky Henderson’s Champagne Mystery will have his supporters. However, it’s not ideal that he’s coming here off the back of a fall at Cheltenham in the Caspian Caviar Chase – I’d prefer to see him back in action before siding with any money. Clan Legend and Doitforthevillage are the two recent winners in the field and the latter is also a proven CD winner here, but Clan Legend is up 8lb here, while this looks a harder race than the one Village won here last time. Alnadam is also a course winner that should be more at home on this ground after not liking the better ground at Kempton last time out – trainer said it was too tight. Evander has done well this season and should make a bold bid, but the call is for the Gary Moore-trained BENATAR (e/w) to go well. This 9 year-old has a lot of weight (12-1), but that’s due to him being the top-rated in the field. He returned from a long break last time at Cheltenham in the Caspian Caviar Chase to run a decent third and can be expected to have come on for that too. He’s a soft-ground winner in the past and off a mark of 142 looks to be on a fair rating based on old form.


3.30 – Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase Cl2 3m110y ITV4

16/17 – Carried 11-5 or less
15/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
14/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/17 – Aged 9 or younger
12/17 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences (UK) before
12/17 – Rated 136 or lower
10/17 – Placed last time out
10/17 – Irish-bred
9/17 – Favourites placed in the top 4
8/17 – Had raced at Sandown before (4 won)
8/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/17 – Raced at either Sandown (3) or Haydock (3) last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/17 – French-bred
3/17 – Winners that went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
2/17 – Trained by Lucy Wadham (2 of last 7)
2/17 – Trained by Venetia Williams (2 of last 7)
Deise Alba (7/1) won this race in 2020

TQ VERDICT: Barring, Ask Me Early, who is the only recent winner in the field, most of these are on a bit of a recovery mission. Ask Me Early has won his last two for the Harry Fry yard, but is up another 7lbs here from last time so has more on his plate. We’ve also got last year’s winner – Deise Alba (1st 7/1) – in the race, but he’s been pulled up the last twice and will need the return to Sandown to spark him back to life. Kiltealy Briggs (also entered at Wetherby, 2.35) would have to prove he stays this far, while the Nicholls runner – Danny Whizzbang hasn’t progressed as some thought he would. So, the two tentative picks here are A TOI PHIL (e/w) and COO STAR SIVOLA (e/w). The former is now with Gary Moore after coming from the Gordon Elliott yard and has some promise from his two opening runs for Moore. A decent chaser back in the day that was 12th in the 2019 Grand National and even though he’s now 11 years-old his dropping handicap mark (138) is making him look dangerous. Coo Star Sivola is another familiar name to most – being a past Festival winner (Ultima 2018), but he’s still only 9 years-old and after failing to win a race since that Cheltenham success, has dropped to a mark that’s 7lbs lower. There was a sign last time at Kempton (5th of 11) that he might be running into some better form and has won on heavy ground in the past too.

 

 
Wetherby Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

**CANCELLED DUE TO A WATERLOGGED TRACK**

2.35 – William Hill Towton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV4

14/15 – Aged 8 or younger
13/15 – Had never raced over fences at Wetherby before
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/15 – Priced 3/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
11/15 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
10/15 – Aged 7 years-old
10/15 – Irish bred
9/15 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
9/15 – Placed favourites
8/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (1 winner, Blaklion 2016, plus all finished 6th or better)
2/15 – Trained by Ian Williams
Newtide (9/2) won the race in 2020

TQ VERDICT: An interesting renewal. The Big Breakaway, who is the top-rated in the race, lost nothing in defeat last time out, when second to the useful Shan Blue, and should that horse win at Sandown today then he’s sure to attract interest. Hurricane Harvey is another big player after his Grade 2 win at Donny last time out – he beat a horse called Milanford that day by 1 ¼ lengths. However, another runner – PORT OF MARS – also beat that same horse last time out, but did so by 10 lengths! Therefore, on that line of form alone this Olly Murphy runner gets the nod. Of the rest, the David Pipe runner – Remastered – can also go well. He’s a proven CD winner here after a smooth success at the track over Xmas and with that win coming off the back of a wind op there could be more to come. Kiltealy Briggs, is also entered at Sandown, is a fair sort, but would have stamina to prove over this 3m trip for me.

 

Musselburgh Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.05 - bet365 Scottish County Hurdle (A Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f124y ITV4

12/13 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
12/13 – Had won over this trip before (hurdles)
11/13 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
10/13 – Aged 6 years-old
8/13 – Former flat horses
8/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/13 – Favourites placed in the top 4
7/13 – Carried 11-0 or less
7/13 – Rated between 120-130
2/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Won last time out
Dear Sire (15/2) won this race in 2018
Sebastopol (9/2) won the race in 2020

TQ VERDICT: Probably not the best renewal of this Scottish County Hurdle. The 2018 winner – Dear Sire – tries again and can’t be ruled out, but is 3lbs higher this time and now a 9 year-old. He’s on good order though after a close second in a NH Flat bumper at Newcastle recently. Blakeney Point and Locker Room Talk are others to note after nice wins last time out, while CD winners Ashington and Never Do Nothing at least have proven form at the track. The unexposed Torigni should have more to come and ran well (3rd) at Kempton last time. But the Nicholls runner – CHRISTOPHER WOOD – was ne place ahead of him that day and with the useful 7lb conditional – Angus Cheleda – on this time looks to have a great chance. He’s another CD winner here too and it’s certainly interesting Nicholls is sending him up on the long trip. Of the rest, recent Newcastle bumper winner – NEWTOWN BOY – can also go well for the Keith Dalgleish yard. He was just under 9 lengths off Navajo Pass here on New Year’s Day and that horse has since franked the form to win the Unibet The New One Hurdle at Haydock recently.

 

3.45 – bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase Cl2 4m176y ITV4

Only three previous runnings
2/3 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
2/3 – Priced between 6/1 and 10/1 in the betting
1/3 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Bob Mahler (9/2 jfav) won the race in 2020

TQ VERDICT: Run over 4miles this race will take some getting. Only Dino Boy, who won well over this trip at Kelso last time out and last year’s winner – Bob Mahler – are the proven distance winners in the field. That said, many have run well over the extreme distances in the past and have the potential to go well. LE BREUIL is one of those and is certainly the class act in the race. He’s got a fair amount of weight (11-12lbs) as a result but has run well this season, including a decent third in the Classic Chase at Warwick last time out. That was his first run off a wind op too and he gets in here off the same mark. Of the rest, The Ferry Master, who has caught the eye on winning his last two well, will be popular too, while the Dr Richard Newland pair of Classic Escape and Billy Bronco are others to note. But, despite running below-par this season (pulled up three times), it might be foolish to ignore last year’s winner – BOB MAHLER (e/w) – too. He’s only 2lbs higher than 12 months ago, but we know he stays the trip and has had 2 months off since being pulled up at Kelso in the race Dino Boy won. This race would have been a target since and I’ll take a chance on the return to the Scottish venue sparking him back to life.

 

 

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