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13th April 2021

Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: Sat 9th Jan 2021

More LIVE ITV action this Saturday as the cameras head to Wincanton, Kempton and Chepstow for a bumper day of LIVE action with 10 ITV races being shown!

At Kempton Park, the Lanzarote Hurdle is their main event – a race that trainer Nicky Henderson has won three times since 2013. Plus, they are also staging the Grade Two Relkeel Hurdle that was lost at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.

Then at Wincanton, we’ve four LIVE races that include the rescheduled Paddy Power Dipper Novices’ Chase, that was called off at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.

We’ve also got the 2020 Welsh Grand National and Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle to take in at Chepstow – two more races that we lost over the Christmas period due to the weather.

So, fingers crossed the weather is kind and, as normal, we are on-hand with all the key stats and trends for the LIVE ITV races – hopefully they might help point you in the direction of a few winners.

 

Kempton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

1.10 – Ladbrokes Where The Nation Plays Handicap Chase Cl3 (5yo+ 0-140) 2m 4 1/2f ITV4

7/8 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
7/8 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/8 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
6/8 – Won no more than twice over fences before
6/8 – Had run at the track before (hurdles/chase)
6/8 – Unplaced last time out
5/8 – Irish bred
5/8 – Rated between 134 and 139
5/8 – Carried 11-6 or more in weight
4/8 – Ran at Ludlow (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
3/8 – Winning favourites
2/8 – Trained by Amy Murphy
Erick Le Rouge won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 17/2

TQ VERDICT: Erick Le Rouge won this race 12 months ago but has not built on that since and also fell last time out at Wincanton. He’s had wind surgery since his last run, but has a bit to prove. Theinval is the only other course winner in the field, but this 11 year-old is not getting any younger and it’s interesting that 6 of the last 8 winners of this race were aged between 6-8 years-old. That age stat gives ESPOIR DE ROMAY, ERICK LE ROUGE, PISTOL WHIPPED, EVANDER, MAHLERVOUS and SMARTY WILD positives. Of that bunch, Mahlervous and Smarty Wild are respected, but I was impressed with the way EVANDER jumped and stayed on well to win at Doncaster last time out, so he gets the call. He’s also entered at Wincanton, so we’ll have to see if he actually heads here, but this front-running sort should be well-suited by the Kempton track and despite a 9lb hike in the ratings, this 6 year-old looks the sort to have more in the locker with just three runs over fences.

1.45 – Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m ITV4

Just 8 previous runnings
8/8 – Didn’t win last time out
7/8 – Had run at the track before
6/8 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
6/8 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
5/8 – Unplaced last time out
5/8 – Carried 11-0 or more
6/8 – Placed favourites
5/8 – Had won over 3m (fences) before
5/8 - Won between 2-4 times (fences) before
2/8 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/8 – Winning favourites
Fingerontheswitch (15/2) won the race in 2020
Glen Forsa (11/4) won the race in 2019
Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014 & 2016

TQ VERDICT: Double Shuffle, Slate House, Saint Xavier and Glen Forsa, who actually won this race in 2019, are the proven course winners in the race but they’ve all got a bit to prove. In fact, that statement applies to most of the runners in the race with not a single recent winner in the line-up! The age trends suggests horses aged 8 and 9 are the ones to focus on though, so with that in mind ROCCO and COMMODORE get the nod. The former, from the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard, was a fair second here last time out and in this better race gets in with just 10-8 to carry. The longer trip is a bit of an unknown, but he kept on well last time to think it’s worth a crack. Then Commodore hails from the Kim Bailey team that are having a fine season and despite unseating last time out at Cheltenham was running a nice race. The time before he ran the in-form Snow Leopardess close at Haydock and it’s interesting that connections have booked the champion jockey, Brian Hughes.

2.20 – Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m5f ITV4

14/16 – Went on run in a race at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
14/16 – Won by either a French (5) or Irish (9) bred
14/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
10/16 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
10/16 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
10/16 – Had won at Cheltenham before
9/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/16 – Went onto run in the Stayers’ Hurdle later that season
7/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/16 – Trained by the Pipe stable
Summerville Boy (10/1) won this race in 2020
Agrapart (16/1) won the race in 2017

Note: This race is normally staged at Cheltenham

TQ VERDICT: Rescheduled from the cancelled Cheltenham New Year’s Day card and it looks set to be a nice renewal. Summerville Boy will be feared back up in trip and he landed this race 12 months ago too. Call Me Lord is a horse I can’t get right at the moment – clearly has ability but just doesn’t win enough for me. Thomas Darby, Younevercall, On The Blind Side and Indefatigable are all players that on their best form have chances, but the call here is MCFABULOUS. This Paul Nicholls 7 year-old was an excellent third in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury last time out, behind Thyme Hill and Paisley Park. The form of that has been franked since, but the big plus here for the Nicholls horse is the drop back in trip here. He just failed to see out the 3m trip last time out after travelling well in the race, so the drop back to 2m5f here is a huge bonus.

2.55 – Ladbrokes Silviniaco Conti Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Placed 2nd or 3rd last time out
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
6/7 – Had won at least 4 times over fences
6/7 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
5/7 – Winning favourites
4/7 – Had won over fences at the track
Frodon won the race in 2020
Top Notch won the race in 2019
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2019, 2017 & 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2020
Trainer Alan King won the race in 2015
Trainer Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014

TQ VERDICT: Just the four runners here, but a decent little race. Master Tommytucker is a horse I like and has won twice this season in good fashion. But he flopped in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup last time out at Cheltenham so needs to bounce back. He’s a proven course winner here though and not all horses take to Cheltenham, so that last run could have an excuse. Clondaw Castle was a fine third in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon last time out and is clearly a horse on the up, but does need another step forward here based on the ratings. Riders On the Storm should be better for his return run at Cheltenham and also for the step back up in trip, but the call here is the improving IMPERIAL AURA. This Festival winner from last season has returned this term with two more top wins at Carlisle and Ascot, plus heads here as the top-rated horse in the field. He’s a tough chaser that jumps really well and having won 4 of his 6 chase starts knows how to get his head in front. At just 8 years-old there’s every chance we’ve not seen the best of him yet either and even though you can’t totally rule out the other three, you feel that he’s got the least to prove at the moment and is taking to continue his upward curve.

 

3.30 – Ladbrokes Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

19/19 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
17/19 – Aged 7 or younger
17/19 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
15/19 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Had won exactly 2 times over hurdles before
14/19 – Had never won a hurdles race over 2m4f or longer before
14/19 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
13/19 – Winning distance 3 lengths or less
13/19 – Irish (7) or French (6) bred
13/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/19 – Carried 10-11 or less
11/19 – Aged 6 years-old
9/19 – Placed favourites
8/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Had run at Kempton before (5 won)
5/19 -  Winning favourites
4/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/19 – Trained by Nick Williams
3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (38 runnings) 34 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 15/2

TQ VERDICT: A competitive renewal of this year’s Lanzarote Hurdle with most of the big yards represented. Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson, who both have good recent records in the race, run The Cashel Man, Glynn, Solo and Amour De Nuit, so command respect. Everglow was a tidy winner at Ascot last time out and is clearly held in high regard by the Hobbs yard – there could be more to come from him, while the consistent One True King has to enter the mix based on his form this term. However, the last-named does step up significantly in trip here and I’d rather side with one of those with proven stamina. With that in mind, THE WHITE MOUSE could be the answer. This Lucy Wadham 7 year-old has won his last two at Wincanton and Cheltenham – catching the eye with a good turn-of-foot both times. A 6lb rise for the last of those wins looks fair for this talented grey mare, so another bold showing looks on the cards. The other pick thought is the Nicholls runner SOLO (e/w), who is interesting now upped in trip. This former course winner is also the top-rated in the field so does have a fair share of weight, but has been running in better races than this and has one on heavy ground in France in the past. In these slightly calmer waters and up in trip, this lightly-raced Nicholls runner could be ready to get back on track.

Wincanton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

 

2.05 - Paddy Power Dipper Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m4f ITV4

18/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
18/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
17/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Went onto run in a Cheltenham Festival race (1 winner)
15/18 – Came from the top three in the betting
14/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
14/18 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
13/18 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
13/18 – Had won over fences at 2m3f or further before
10/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Irish bred
9/18 – Won last time out
9/18 – Had won over hurdles at Cheltenham before
8/18 – Aged 7 years-old
7/18 – Returned 5/4 or shorter in the betting
7/18 – Ran at either Sandown or Cheltenham last time out
7/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Won by the Pipe stable
1/18 – Went onto win the Arkle Chase (My Way De Solzen, 2007)

Note: This race is normally run at Cheltenham

TQ VERDICT: Just the three runners here, but still a fascinating little race. The ratings suggest the Nick Mitchell runner – Lieutenant Rocco – has it to do though, rated 17lbs off the likely favourite PROTEKTORAT. Messire Des Obeaux backed up his trainers (Alan King) faith in him to win last time out at here after a long time off. This 9 year-old was a classy hurdler and was certainly impressive on that debut chase win, but I’d just be worried about the ‘bounce factor’, plus taking on a decent sort in Protektorat that will test his jumping. The selection is 2-from-2 over fences after wins at Carlisle and Cheltenham, while looks the sort with more to come. This 6 year-old has shown a good turn-of-foot each time and being three years younger than the King horse might just have the legs and the more scope for improvement.

2.35 – MansionBet’s Bet 10 Get 20 Handicap Chase Cl3 2m4f35y ITV4

8/8 – Aged 8 or older
7/8 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/8 – Won 2 or less time over fences
7/8 – Didn’t win last time out
7/8 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
6/8 – Aged 8 or older
5/8 – Placed favourites
5/8 – Rated between 131 and 135
4/8 – Finished 4th last time out
4/8 – Ran at Exeter (2) or Chepstow (2) last time out
3/8 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/8 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
1/8 – Winning favourites
Gala Ball won this race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 9/2

TQ VERDICT: Some of these runners are entered at Kempton and Chepstow too so we’ll have to see what happens on the day – most are hedging their bets in case of any abandonments. The Nicholls-trained Capeland, who is a proven CD winner, is only entered here though and it’s interesting Nicholls has the 7lb claimer Angus Cheleda on here to help with his 11-11 weight – he can go well. But the call is to stick with last year’s winner – GALA BALL. This Philip Hobbs runner was a winner of this race 12 months ago off just a pound lower mark and should be spot-on for this after a decent return run at Newbury behind Clondaw Castle at the end of November. Trip and ground are fine, while his record here at Wincanton to very impressive 6-1-1-1!

3.45 – Mansionbet Faller Insurance Handicap Chase Cl3 (5yo+ 0-130) 1m 7 1/2f ITV4

Only 1 previous running
Trainer Colin Tizzard won the 2020 running with Molineaux
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 31% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Neil Mulholland is just 3 from 39 with his chasers at the track

TQ VERDICT: Another tricky race, so it might pay to also stick with a recent winner of this prize – MOLINEAUX. This Colin Tizzard-trained 10 year-old is only 2lbs higher than last year and has returned in good order this season with a nice second at Ludlow last month. Soft ground is fine and this slight drop in grade will also help his cause. Of the rest, the Nicholls team do well with their chasers here so their Glajou enters the mix, while the Venetia Williams-trained Gardefort is the only other proven CD winner in the race so can do best of the rest despite now being a 12 year-old.

Chepstow Horse Racing Betting Trends (ATR/ITV4)

 

1.25 – Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Cl1 (3yo) 2m ITV4

15/16 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
14/16 – Won between 0-2 times previously
11/16 – French bred
9/16 – Won their last race
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Raced at the track previously
4/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Raced at Newbury last time out
2/16 – Trained by Alan King

TQ VERDICT: Some promising sorts for the future here, including the David Pipe-trained Adagio and the Paul Nicholls runner – Houx Gris – who were both impressive in winning last time out. While the Fergal O’Brien runner – Elham Valley – did nothing wrong on debut to win at Sandown and the form of that race has been franked by the second – Hudson De Grugy – winning since. However, that runner-up is trained by Gary Moore, so you feel he’ll know where he stands with his NASSALAM – a horse that’s gone into many a notebook after two easy wins at Fontwell. It’s no secret the yard think he’s a nice horse and despite this being a clear step up in grade, he’s a horse that figures well in the betting for the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival, so you feel he’d need to win this if he’s going to justify that interest at Cheltenham in a few months. He’s handled soft/heavy ground in the past too and stays a bit longer than this 2m trip which will help in conditions.

3.10 – Coral Welsh Grand National (A Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y ITV

18/18 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before
18/18 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
18/18 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences)
16/18 – Aged 9 or younger
16/18 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/18 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
13/18 – Aged 8 or younger
12/18 – Carried 10-8 or less in weight
12/18 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences
12/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Irish bred
9/18 – Had won over fences at Chepstow before
7/18 – Unplaced favourites
7/18 – Won last time out
6/18 – French bred
6/18 – Had run in the Welsh National before
5/18 – Ran at Chepstow last time out
3/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/18 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 10/1

TQ VERDICT: Secret Reprieve will be all the rage here after bolting up in the Welsh National Trial here last time out. He’s only up 4lbs for that and has just 10-1 to carry so a similar run would make him very hard to beat. However, unless you were on at bigger prices, he certainly doesn’t look much value in a race that will be run in gruelling conditions, while this Evan Williams horse still have to prove this 3m7f trip is within range – the furthest he’s gone to date is 3m. Overall, it’s hard to crab his chance, but he’s not for me at the prices. Christmas In April and The Two Amigos, who was 12 lengths second to Secret Reprieve, are the only two proven distance winners in the field so command respect based on that. But the three I like against the hot favourite are last year’s second and third – TRUCKERS LODGE, YALA ENKI and CLOUDY GLEN. The first-named, who was only beaten 1 ¾ lengths in the race last year, will have no stamina issues having won the Midlands National last season and is also a course winner here. He’s got his fair share of weight (11-8) but regular pilot Lorcan Williams takes off a handy 3lbs, while the Nicholls camp have a fair record in this race with wins in 2004 and 2005. Yala Enki is another from the Paul Nicholls yard and was a running on third in the race 12 months ago. Heavy ground is fine and even though he’s a horse that is hard to win with these days, he’s often not far away in these races and with assured stamina that’s an obvious plus. Finally, Cloudy Glen is a bit of a rule to himself, but on his day clearly a talented staying chaser. He won easily at Fontwell in the Southern National back in November but despite flopping at Sandown last time was well-supported that day. This track should suit him better and he’s a course winner (hurdles) here too. Heavy ground is fine, and he gets in here with a nice racing weight of 10-12. Of the rest, the likes of Ramses De Teillee and Springfield Fox, who are both course winners, can run well too, while last year’s fourth in the race – Prime Venture – is another leading player from the Evan Williams yard, who will be hoping to be another locally-trained winner of this race. Others to note are proven course winners, Vieux Lion Rouge, who defied his advancing years to win the Becher Chase at Aintree last time out, but is 4lbs higher here and would have stamina to prove over this longer trip for me.

 

 

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