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18th October 2021

Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: Sun 2nd May 2021

Another cracking day of ITV Racing action this Sunday as the cameras head to Newmarket to take in four more races that are spearheaded by the 1000 Guineas.

As always, here at TQ we've got all the LIVE races covered with key trends and stats to help you find the best profiles of past winners.



Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Back And Lay On Betfair Handicap (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f ITV

15/16 – Had won at least twice before
15/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Finished in the top 5 in their last race
12/16 – Winning distance 1 ½ lengths or less
12/16 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
12/16 – Had won between 2-4 times before
11/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
11/16  - Had had a recent run that season
7/16 – Had run at Newmarket before (Rowley)
5/16 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites (1 co)
3/16 – Ridden by William Buick
2/16 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
1/16 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

TQ VERDICT: Sky Defender and Hyanna are fair sorts but the four to focus on here are Zabeel Champion, Grand Bazaar, Rodrigo Diaz and Global Storm. CD winner Grand Bazaar will be popular with Frankie riding for John Gosden and after not staying the 1m6f trip last time will enjoy the drop back to 1m4f. He’s sure to be well tuned up, but is rated 6lbs higher than his last win. Rodrigo Diaz has won his last three and is a real improver, but has more on his plate here being up 10lbs and up two grades too. So that leaves the in-form Zabeel Champion, who has won his last two and is a course winner too. He’s 3lbs higher than his last win (Ripon) and also had Global Storm beaten when they raced here on the July Course back in July. There was 4 ¾ lengths between then that day and even though Zabeel Champion has progressed nicely since, he was getting a handy 6lbs that day. Things are much reversed this time in favour of GLOBAL STORM, who is now actually getting 8lbs – so that’s a 14lb swing so just under 5 lengths. The pick also hails from the Charlie Appleby yard that have a decent 29% record here with their 4+ year-olds, while jockey William Buick has ridden the winner of this race twice in the last 7 runnings.

2.25 Betfair Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV

10/10 – Finished in the top three last time out
9/10 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Winners drawn between stalls 2-8 (inc)
9/10 – Won just once before
8/10 – Had between 1-3 runs before
7/10 – Won last time out
5/10 – Trained by John Gosden (5 of last 7)
4/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (all for John Gosden)
2/10 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks
0/10 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

TQ VERDICT: Another race the ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin have a leading chance in with A’SHAARI. This 3 year-old caught the eye on debut when winning on the July Course here over 7f. Is stepped up to 1m2f this time, but breeding suggests that’s what she wants – certainly one for the shortlist. Another that will be popular is the William Haggas-trained Sea Karats, with the yard winning this race in 2019. Another that ran well on debut when a close third at Newbury last month and with a recent run under her belt could be a lot sharper than some of the others. Mystery Angel is a course winner, but is also a tad exposed now with nine runs to her name so she might just be vulnerable to an improver. Lady Hayes, for Roger Varian, is another to consider, but the call from the bigger-priced runners is take a chance on the Dettori/Gosden runner – TASLIMA (e/w). The yard have a cracking record in this race – winning 5 of the last 7 – and even though this 3 year-old was a beaten favourite on debut at Lingfield, she’s sure to have learned a lot from that experience and the fact connections are upping her in grade into this Listed level, suggests she’s been doing well over the winter


3.00 – Betfair Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m1f ITV

16/16 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
15/16 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
15/16 – Had won over 1m (or further) before
14/16 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
12/16 – Aged 4 years-old
9/16 – Won this on first run of the season
8/16 – Had run at the course before
7/16 – Ran at either Kempton (4) or Newmarket (3) last time out
7/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
6/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/16 – Ran at Kempton last time out
3/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/16 – Ridden by William Buick
2/16 – French-trained winners (2 of the last 6)
10 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)

TQ VERDICT: This is another race that’s been dominated by one trainer in recent years – this time Sir Michael Stoute, who has won 6 of the last 16 runnings. Therefore, his QUEEN POWER gets the nod to enhance that good stable record. She is a proven course winner and has run well at this level in the past, including a fair second in this race last season. This year’s renewal doesn’t look quite as strong as 12 months ago so she’s taken to go a place better. Of the rest, Lady Bowthorpe is the top-rated in the field and wasn’t disgraced in the G1 Sun Chariot Stakes here last October (6th), but all runs to date have been over 1m or less, so this slightly longer trip is an unknown. Freyja and LAVENDER’S BLUE are both course winners, with the last-named interesting too after returning this season with a good win at Kempton. She beat Fooraat 1 ½ lengths that day too and should have every chance of upholding that form. Of the rest, Posted and the Frankie/Gosden runner at a big price – Indie Angel – will be worth noting in the market.

3.40 – Qipco 1,000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 1m ITV

17/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/19 – Had won between 2-3 times before
14/19 – Had won a Group race before
13/19 – Drawn between 2-13 (inc)
12/19 – Yet to win a race over a mile (or further)
11/19 – Won their previous race
11/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
11/19 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
11/19 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
9/19 – Returned a double-figure price
9/19 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
9/19 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
8/19 – Favourites unplaced
8/19 – Irish-trained winners
7/19 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
6/19 – Drawn in stalls 7 or 8
6/19 – Previous Group One winners
5/19 – Went onto win the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot
4/19 – Won by a US bred horse
4/19 – Won by the favourite
4/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/19 – French-trained winners
3/19 – Went onto finish fourth in the Epsom Oaks
2/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/19 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Kazzia 2002, Minding 2016, Love 2020)
Just one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
9 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 2-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 13/1

1,000 Guineas Facts

Owner Hamdam Al Maktoum has won the race 5 times (1990, 1991, 1995, 2000 & 2009)
Frankie Dettori has ridden the ridden the winner 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Ryan Moore has ridden the winner 4 times (2012, 2015, 2016, 2020)
Godolphin have won the race 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Aidan O’Brien has trained six winners, Virginia Waters (2005), Homecoming Queen (2012), Minding (2016), Winter (2017), Hermosa (2019), Love (2020)

TQ VERDICT: A decent renewal that will give us plenty of clues for the season ahead for the Classic generation. Nell Gwyn first and second – Sacred and Saffron Beach – renew rivalry here, but the last horse to win both races was Speciosa in 2006, so last month’s race has a bit to prove in terms of being a decent trial for the 1,000 Guineas. Alcohol Free battled on well to win the Fred Darling on her return at Newbury last month and having landed the G1 Cheveley Park Stakes here over 6f last September then we know the track suits – but the extra furlong is the unknown. Therefore, it’s hard to get away from the Aidan O’Brien runner in the race – SANTA BARBARA – who represents a yard that have a cracking record in the race (6 wins), including the last two renewals. This 3 year-old won well on debut at The Curragh back in September, but the key is that win came over a mile so we know she’ll be fine over this trip – most of her rivals are unproven over it. Yes, she’s actually bred to stay further too, so there is every chance we’ll see this Oaks entry being stepped up in trip after this, but I’ll take her to land the second of the English Classics and the seventh in this race for trainer Aidan O’Brien. Of the others, O’Brien also runs Mother Earth and Frankie has been booked to ride, so she can’t be ruled out at a bigger price, while Statement and Vadream are race fit from decent recent runs and could sneak into the frame at nice odds if the race falls apart a bit.




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