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6th May 2021

Free Tips and Trends: Sunday 18th April 2021

The normal Saturday action has been switched to Sunday because of the funeral of Prince Philip - therefore, a busy day for the ITV cameras, but something for everyone as they head to Newbury’s first flat meeting of the season, while they are also up at Ayr to cover their Scottish Grand National card.

As always, here at TQ we've got all the key trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races.

 

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

2.10 – Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

17/17 – Aged 6 or younger
17/17 – Had won over 1m4f (or further) before
17/17 – Priced 11/1 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Had won between 2-5 times before
15/17 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
14/17 – Having their first run of the season
13/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/17 – Had raced at Newbury before
11/17 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
8/17 – Drawn 6 or higher
8/17 – Had won a Group race before
5/17 – Raced at Newbury last time out
4/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 5/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

TQ VERDICT: With ALL of the last 17 winners aged 6 or younger, then the 8 year-olds Red Verdon, Euchen Glen and Morando. Another key trend is that all of the last 17 winners had won over at least 1m4f in the past and that would be a negative for one of the leading fancies – Thunderous – who is yet to try this trip. Yes, he won well over 1m2f in the Dante Stakes last season and this distance looks worth a crack, but his pedigree suggests it might be hit or miss. Al Aasy has is a proven G3 winner so certainly has the form to take this, but does need to come back from a poor run at Goodwood last July in the Gordon Stakes. It’s possible the track that day didn’t suit as trainer, William Haggas, couldn’t explain the poor showing. But his two career wins have also been with some ‘soft’ in the ground description. Haggas, who has a decent 36% record with his 4+ year-olds here, also has Pablo Escobarr in the race and after not getting home over 1m6f last time should be better over this 1m4f trip. Outbox may be fitter than most after a good win at Donny just three weeks and with Hollie Doyle riding is sure to be popular. But the two I’m playing here are DEJA (e/w) and WITHOUT A FIGHT (e/w). The former will have Ryan Moore riding and after racing too keen last time over 1m6f, so the drop back to 1m4f will help. He’s gone well fresh in the past too and is actually the joint top-rated in the field with Thunderous. Without A Fight is yet another that is coming back in trip after not quite seeing out the 1m6f last time. He’s a proven course winner that is yet to finish out of the first three from his 5 runs. The ground will be fine too and the Crisford yard have had a few winners in the last couple of weeks to give us a bit more confidence.

2.45 – Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

15/17 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
15/17 – Finished in the top three last time out
15/17 – Had won between 1-2 times before
14/17 – Having their first run of the season
13/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Drawn 5 or higher
12/17 – Came from the top three in the betting
9/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
9/17 – Had won over 7f before
8/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Had won at Newbury before
5/17 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
4/17 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
4/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/17 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/17 – Trained by the Hannon stable
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/2
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

TQ VERDICT: Several promising sorts on show here, including the Andrew Balding runner – Alcohol Free, who landed the G1 Cheveley Park Stud Stakes at HQ last September. That’s probably the best form on offer and she’s the top-rated in the field. The only niggle would be the poor value and that she’s also stepping up from 6f to 7f – she’ll be stronger for another winter on her back, but the worry would be that she looked all-out last time in that race over 6f. Last season’s Prestige and Rockfel Stakes winner – ISABELLA GILES– looks a big player too. She clearly didn’t get home over the 1m in the Fillie’s Mile last time, when racing too free and so back to 7f here will be a plus and she’s a course winner too. Happy Romance had a good 2 year-old campaign – winning 4 times, but has 2 lengths to find with Alcohol Free on that Cheveley Park Stud form, while the step up to 7f isn’t certain to suit. Umm Kulthum was third in that race and Dandalla fifth, so both have to enter the mix too. The unbeaten Lucid Dreamer could be anything after two solid wins at Kempton and Newbury, but the other interesting ones for me is WILD IRIS. This Gosden/Dettori runner has only had one run, when winning easily at Newcastle over 7f last October. But connections clearly feel she’s up to this big rise in class. The teamed-up to win this race in 2017, plus she holds an entry in the 1000 Guineas. Of the rest, Zaajirah and the Ryan Moore-ridden Ville De Grace are others to note in the market.

3.20 – Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f ITV

16/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Had won at either 6f or 7f before
15/17 – Having their first run of the season
14/17 – Won at Listed class or better before
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Won between 2-4 times before
12/17 – Finished in the top two last time out
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
9/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Had won a Group race before
8/17 – Had won over 7f before
8/17 – Had won a race at Newbury before
7/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/17 – Irish-trained
2/17 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/2
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

TQ VERDICT: The quicker ground will certainly be a plus for the Tregoning runner – Alkumait- who seemed to hate the softer conditions at HQ last time in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes. But I’d still be a tad worried about the trip – with both career wins coming over 6f, but the yard won this race when it was last run in 2019. Gosden and Frankie team-up again here – this time with Fundamental, who will be fit from a solid win at Chelmsford last time, but this is clearly a big step up in class. Oo De Lally and Mujbar are the only two CD winners in the field, but the clear one to beat looks to be the Richard Hannon runner – CHINDIT. He won three times over this 7f trip last season and didn’t run as bad last time in the Dewhurst as the final placings suggested. He didn’t get the best of runs that day and the softer ground probably wasn’t ideal – all his wins have been on good or faster ground. He’s around 14/1 for the 2000 Guineas, so you feel he’d need to run well here to go well in that race at HQ next month, but being a proven G2 and G3 winner already then, we know he’s already won at this level. Of the rest, Ryan Moore booked to ride the Hughie Morrison-trained HUDDLETON MAC (e/w) is another of interest of those at bigger prices. Yes, this is a big step up in grade, but he was a good winner at Sandown last August – making all. He’s sure to have improved since over the winter and is clearly well thought of to be tackling this much better grade. Moore riding is the icing on the cake.

3.55 – MansionBet Spring Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

17/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
17/17 – Won no more than 4 times before (flat)
16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
14/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/17 – Won over at least 1m before
14/17 – Won between 2-4 times before (flat)
13/17 – Rated between 85-98
13/17 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
11/17 – Unplaced last time out
10/17 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Had run at Newbury before
3/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/17 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of last 5)
2/17 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer (2 of last 6)
1/17 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1

Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

TQ VERDICT: A super competitive renewal of this handicap. 4 and 5 year-olds have the best record in the race, while 16 of the last 17 winners have been aged 6 or younger – with that in mind, the older horses in the race like Greenside and Oh This Is Us are overlooked if running. Acquitted returned to the track last time to be a close second at Doncaster and is a proven CD winner at the track too. Danyah was a solid fourth in the Lincoln Handicap last time out, but did run a bit free that day so will need to settle better for me. Course winner, Dirty Rascal, won well at Leicester last time (5 lengths), but this looks a lot harder and the handicapper has raised him a hefty 10lbs. King Ottokar continues to drop down the handicap and I think he’ll be popping up again at some point, but he ran poorly in the Lincoln last time and needs to improve on that really, plus might want softer ground. NUGGET and MATTHEW FLINDERS are the ones of interest though. Nugget is sure to be fitter for a recent third at Nottingham, but also didn’t get the best of runs that day (short of room), while Ryan Moore, who has won on the horse in the past, is back in the saddle. The other pick – Matthew Flinders – stays further than this 1m trip (has won over 1m2f) and should be much more at home on this quicker ground after flopping on soft last time at York. He’s been gelded over the winter too and has Oisin Murphy booked to ride, who has won on the horse in the past.


AYR HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

 

1.15 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m ITV

15/16 – Aged 9 or younger
15/16 – Had won over at least 2m (chase) before
14/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Had won between 2-4 times (chase) before
14/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/16 – Rated between 127-139
11/16 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/16 – Finished in the top four last time out
11/16 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – French bred
10/16 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
8/16 – Had run at Ayr before
4/16 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including 2 of the last 3 years)
2/16 – Won last time out
Theinval won this race in 2018
Duke Of Navan won the race in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: We have a few past winners in the race as old timers – Duke Of Navan (2015) and Theinval (2018) run and both get in here with very low weights – they are 13 and 11 respectively though so you’d feel they might just get found out by some younger legs here. With that in mind, it’s hard to ignore the chance of the Dan Skelton runner – KING D’ARGENT – here, who has won his last two. This 6 year-old is up another 9lbs for the last of those wins, but that was an easy 8 ½ length success and has now won 3 of his 4 starts over fences and making into a much better chaser than he was a hurdler. Of the rest, the recent Carlisle scorer – Some Reign – has to enter calculations on that run despite being 5lbs higher, while Return Ticket is a proven course winner that also heads here in form after a very easy win at Sedgefield. But the main danger to the selection can come from the Paul Nicholls runner – Grand Sancy. This 7 year-old won a Listed Novice Chase at Chepstow back in October and even though he’s not built on that since,  the better ground here will suit and the drop back in trip looks an interesting move too. The yard last won this race in 2012.

1.50 – CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m ITV 


9/9 – Aged 9 or younger
9/9 – No more than 3 chase wins
8/9 – French (3) or Irish (5) bred
7/9 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
7/9 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/9 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
6/9 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
6/9 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
3/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Had run at the track before
2/9 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 15/2

TQ VERDICT: Five Star Getaway heads here on a four-timer after some nice wins this year, but is up a massive 15lbs from the last of those at Haydock and I think that winning run might come to an end now. 6 and 7 year-olds have the best recent record in the race, so – if running – the 8 year-olds Ballymoy, who is sure to be popular, and The Butcher Said, have this to overcome if making the final line-up. With a light weight, the Dan Skelton-trained Flegmatik could be interesting for a yard that won this race the last time it was run in 2019 – title chasing jockey, Harry Skelton, rides. However, it could be another jockey in the race for the title – Brian Hughes – that takes this. He rides the Nicky Richards runner – MAROWN here, who seemed to relish the step up in trip to 3m last time when an easy winner at Wetherby. He’s also a course winner, while the ground is fine. Of the rest, Enrilo, will be a popular choice if running for the Paul Nicholls yard – they won this in 2016, but the other that might be worth having an interest in is DUBLIN FOUR (e/w). This 7 year-old was a nice winner at Newbury last time out and despite being 9lb higher in the ratings, looked to have a fair bit in hand last time to suggest he’s up to the rise, with the longer trip sure to suit too.

 

2.25 – Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl2 2m ITV

17/17 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
15/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
14/17 – Carried 10-13 or less
14/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
14/17 – Aged 7 or younger
13/17 – Had won between 2-4 times over hurdles before
12/17 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Rated 137 or higher
10/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/17 – Finished unplaced last time out
9/17 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
8/17 – Irish bred
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites (joint)
3/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
4 of the last 7 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1

TQ VERDICT: Diego Du Charmil was a tidy winner at Plumpton last time out, but is up 7lbs for that but this Paul Nicholls runner just seemed to idle a bit up the home straight that day and in this better race that would be a worry. If running, the Olly Murphy-trained Enemy Coast Ahead would be popular having won his last three, but returns from a 253-day break and this is certainly harder than the races he’s been winning – the good ground will be in his favour though. Anna Bunina and Tommy’s Oscar can go well, but the to main runners look to be Calico and MILKWOOD. The former has won two of his last three, but he didn’t have to beat much the last day at Warwick (sent off 1/4 fav) and I’d just be a bit worried he’d want slightly softer ground with all wins coming with some degree of soft in it. So, that leaves us with MILKWOOD. This Neil Mulholland runner ran a cracker in the County Hurdle at the Festival last time and the form of that race has taken a big boost since with Belfast Banter winning again at Aintree last week. Milkwood also lost a shoe in that race at Cheltenham last time, so the result might have even been a bit better.

3.00 – Jordan Electrics Ltd Future Champion Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 2m4f110y ITV

17/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Aged 8 or younger
16/17 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences before
16/17 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
9/17 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
8/17 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/17 – Raced at Aintree last time out
6/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
5/17 – Had raced at Ayr before
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
5/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Richards
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

TQ VERDICT: This should be a good clash between the free-going Allmankind, who was last seen running fourth in the Arkle Chase at the Festival, and the Paul Nicholls-trained TAMAROC DU MATHAN. The former is the clear pick on the ratings – being rated 160, but the big question mark is the step up to 2m4f here. This will be by far the furthest he’s gone to date and I’m just not sure his front-running style will suit the step up in trip. Yes, the ground will help him getting home, but he does tend to race with the choke out in his races and that might just be his downfall here. In contrast, Tamaroc Du Mathan has winning form over this trip and was a nice winner of the Pendil Novices’ Chase last time out at Kempton over this distance. Before that, he was only 13 lengths behind Shishkin at Kempton, while the Nicholls camp have a cracking record in the race – winning 5 of the last 17 runnings. Of the rest, Malystic should be far away, while Whoshotthesheriff makes up the four runners, but would have a fair bit to find on these terms.


3.35 – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 4m110y ITV

17/17 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
15/17 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
15/17 – Aged 8 or older
14/17 – French or Irish bred
13/17 – Carried 10-9 or less
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/17 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
12/17 – Finished in the first three last time out
12/17 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
11/17 – Had won over 3m1f or further
11/17 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
10/17 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
7/17 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
3/17 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
2/17 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 4 winners)
1/17 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 8 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 21/1

TQ VERDICT: The 8 year-old – Aye Right – will be popular here after his decent third in the Ultima Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival. He’s a course winner too and will be fine on the ground. Prior to that last run he was also a solid second in the SkyBet Chase at Doncaster, but even though he’s a very consistent chaser, he’s still only won the once from 8 runs over fences. He’s also got a fair amount of weight – 11st 11lbs. Vintage Clouds was the winner of the already-mentioned Ultima Handicap, but is 7lbs worse off with Aye Right here and – if running – is another that would have a lot of weight (11st 12lbs) – 13 of the last 17 winners carried 10-9 or less.  The Paul Nicholls camp have a decent recent record in the race – they’ve won 2 of the last 4 runnings. They had three entered earlier in the week but pin their sole hopes on SOLDIER OF LOVE (e/w). He was  pulled up last time out at Cheltenham (Nov), but before that ran the useful Galvin to 7 lengths and has been kept fresh for this. He’ll love the better ground and has gone well off a break in the past. Any ran would be a negative, but he’d probably be pulled out if there was a lot of the wet stuff anyway. However, if the ground continues to dry out then his chance will increase further and even though the trip is a bit of an unknown, he’s won over 3m2f twice to suggest it’s within range. Eider Chase winner – Sam’s Adventure – is another to respect, but an 8lb hike in the ratings makes life a lot harder here, while he might prefer a slightly softer surface. With 15 of the last 17 winners aged 8 or older, then (if running) the Alan King-trained 7 year-old would have this trend to overcome - the Newland-trained Engarde and the Irish radier - Mister Fogpatches are the only two 7 year-olds in the race. Others to respect are Dingo Dollar, who is now with the Sandy Thomson yard, and was a nice winner at Newcastle last time out. Mighty Thunder is another that race well in the Midlands National (2nd) and even off a 5lb higher mark has to be respected. But the other of interest is the Nicky Richards-trained CHAPEL STILE (e/w). This 9 year-old was a nice winner at Carlisle last time out and even though he's up 6lbs for that gets into this better race with just 10-8 to carry. The yard won this race the last time it was run too, while the better ground is fine and he's a proven winner at the track. The only slight unknown in the longer trip, but having won in heavy ground at Carlisle, which is a stiff track, last time suggests he's worth a crack over this distance on this better surface. Ryan Day rides.

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