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21st October 2021

Free TV Tips and Trends: Saturday 8th Aug 2020

More LIVE ITV action this Saturday as the cameras head to Ascot, Haydock and Newmarket to take in seven races across the three venues.

We’ve four competitive handicaps at Ascot, while at Haydock the Group Three Lancaster Stakes is their feature. Then we’ve also one LIVE race at Newmarket’s July course – the Group Three Sweet Solera Stakes.

As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered with key trends and stats – use these to narrow down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.


Ascot Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ ITV4)


1:50 - Bagshot Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Michael Dods has a 50% record (2-from-4) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer David Simcock is only 3 from 59 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David O’Meara is only 5 from 127 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

No past trends to go on here, but there are some average trainer stats here the Richard Hannon, Hugo Palmer and David Simcock teams not having great records with their 4+ year-olds at the track – Hannon runs Theotherside, Palmer has Hamish Macbeth and Simcock runs Woven. EQUITATION (e/w) is the only CD winner in the field so this one has to be respected though and looks to be running into form after a nice second at this track last time in a similar race. Will To Win and Dazzling Dan are others to consider, but the other pick is the Andrew Balding runner CHIL CHIL. This 4 year-old has only been out of the top three twice from 8 runs and returned at Bath last month with a solid second from a long break. She’ll be fitter for that and with Oisin Murphy back riding – who has won on her before – that’s a further plus.

2:25 - Sandhurst Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Roger Varian has a 15% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon is only 3 from 85 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ed Walker is only 1 from 30 (3%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor is only 1 from 35 (3%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David O’Meara is only 5 from 127 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

With the Ed Walker, Saeed Bin Suroor and David O’Meara yards having poor records with their 4+ year-olds at the track their entries Cap Francis, Jalaad and Shelir are overlooked. VIA SERENDIPITY (e/w) is the only course winner in the field and is having it’s first run for the Charlie Fellowes yard after being formerly with Stuart Williams. He’s been out of form of late, but a change of scenery to a yard that's in flying form this campaign, plus a dropping handicap mark give him a squeak. The other main pick though is the Roger Varian GAME PLAYER. The yard has a 15% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track and last season ran well in some decent handicaps. He’s gone well fresh in the past too and is never beaten far in his races to suggest he’ll be bang there again today.

3:00 - Runnymede Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 2m ITV4

Trainer Sylvester Kirk has a 18% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Varian has a 15% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Tony Carroll has only a 4% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer William Knight has only a 5% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track

The likes of Kaloor, Red Force One, Holy Kingdom and Sleeping Lion can go well but the two I like here are AUSTRALIS, from the Roger Varian yard, and only proven CD winner in the field EDDYSTONE ROCK (e/w). The former was a decent second in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle last time out and that looks the best form on offer. He’s had a nice break since that run and should have more to come over these staying trips with only 10 career runs. The other pick was down the field in it’s race at Royal Ascot last time out but the step up in trip here will suit. He’s dropped 2lbs from that run and also has the talented Cieren Fallon claiming 3lbs too. He also ran well at this track at this time of the year last season and with around 2 months off to get ready for this contest looks a fair e/w option with have onside with the likely favourite – Australis.  

3:35 - Virginia Water Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV4

Trainer Alan King has a 23% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Varian has a 15% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David Simcock is only 3 from 59 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David O’Meara is only 5 from 127 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Mick Channon is only 1 from 40 (3%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

The David Simcock yard run the four-time seeking Omnivega here, but the stable are only 3 from 59 with their 4+ year-olds at the track. This 4 year-old is also up another 5lbs here and also in a higher grade – more is needed. Jeremiah was a gutsy winner for the in-form Charlie Fellowes camp here last time too and a 6lb rise might not be enough to stop him getting involved again. I just wonder if that last race was a hard one and it was also only 13 days ago. Caradoc, Spanish Archer and Fox Vardy are all others to consider, but this could be another for the Roger Varian yard – they run LOOK CLOSELY. This 4 year-old won very well over this course and distance last time out and despite being 8lbjs higher here could have a lot more to come. Track and the likely firm ground will be ideal and with only six career runs looks the sort to progress further. Koeman is another CD winner in the field, but the Mick Channon yard are only 1 from 40 with this age group at the track.


Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ ITV4)


2:05 - British Stallion Studs EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV4


9/9 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/9 – Won between 1-3 times
8/9 – Didn’t win last time out
6/9 – Rated between 94-100
6/9 – Drawn between stalls 5-8
6/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/9 – Returned between 10/1 and 14/1
5/9 – Ran at Ascot or Newmarket last time out
3/9 – Trained by William Haggas
2/9 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/9 – Winning favourites
Miss O’Connor (11/10 fav) won the race in 2019

Based on the official ratings its hard to get away from the Sir Michael Stoute runner – VERACIOUS – here. This 5 year-old was last seen running in Group One races so this drop in Listed grade is a clear signs she’ll find things easier. She also returns from wind surgery and Ryan Moore heads here to ride too – it will be a shock if she’s not taking this. Festive Star, Final Song and the Frankie-ridden Farzeen can do best of the rest.


2:40 - Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4


17/17 – Aged 5 or younger
15/17 – Officially rated 105 or higher
13/17 – Yet to run at Haydock
14/17 – Favourites placed
14/17 – Aged either 3 or 5 years-old
14/17 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or more
13/17 – Won a Listed or better class race before
13/17 – Won over 1m2f or further
13/17 – Raced 3 or more previous runs that season
11/17 – Officially rated between 105 and 110
12/17 – Won 3 or more times during their career
11/17 – Raced at either Newbury, York or Sandown last time out
10/17 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Finished unplaced in their last race
5/17 – Favourites that won
3/17 – Won by the Mark Johnston yard
2/17 – Won by Sir Michael Stoute yard
Addeybb (11/10 fav) won the race in 2019

Great to see Hollie Doyle getting rides in these sorts of races and now retained by Imad Alsogar we’ll see a lot more of her in these famous green colours – she rides EXTRA ELUSIVE. This 5 year-old certainly has a chance, but does have a length to find with the Gosden runner – GLOBAL GIANT - based on their runs last time out. Global Giant looked to have a bit more up it’s sleeve that day too and can make a successful leap into Group company from Listed grade – Frankie Dettori rides. Zaaki will be popular too though with the Stoute camp having a fair record in this race and with Ryan Moore riding. Fox Tal was 7 lengths behind the main pick at Newbury last time too so has that to overcome so of those at bigger prices a chance is taken on CERTAIN LAD (e/w). This proven course winner ran much better last time out at York (2nd) in the John Smith’s Handicap and despite more clearly needed here is a horse that does seem to save it’s best for this track – his form here reads 1-3-4-1.


Newmarket (July) Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ ITV4)


3:20 - Betway Sweet Solera Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV4


16/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
15/17 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting market
15/17 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
14/17 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
14/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
14/17 – Won just once previously
12/17 – Had won over only 6f previously
10/17 – Favourites placed
10/17 – Raced at Newmarket (July) previously
9/17 – Won their last race
9/17 – Raced at Newmarket (6) or Sandown (3) last time out
8/17 – Yet to win over 7f
8/17 –  Favourites that won
7/17 – Had just one previous run
5/17 – Won by Godolphin
3/17 – Trained by the Hills stable
West End Girl (11/2) won the race in 2019
3 winners from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
4 of the last 13 horses from stall 7 finished 1st (2) or 2nd (2)

This has been a top race for the ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin over the years so I’m happy to stick with their runner DANILOVA. This Charlie Appleby runner is also a past CD winner at the track and that experience will be a bit plus. With only two career runs should also have more to come and she’s clearly well thought of to be jumping up in grade to tackle this Group race. Fly Miss Helen is the obvious one to beat after winning well on debut at Newbury last month and could be top class. But that win came over 6f so this step up to 7f is a slight unknown. She ran as if it would suit though so it’s hard to put you off her too much.  Dubai Fountain and Setarhe have to be considered too with form in the bank that should see them run well, but SPIRIT OF BERMUDA (e/w) is the other pick. This William Haggas runner is one of the least exposed runners in the field with just one past outing. She won on debut at Glorious Goodwood recently and looked the sort to have learned a lot from that effort.




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