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18th October 2021

Friday Racing Tips and Trends: 27th November 2020

Its DAY ONE of the Newbury Ladbrokes Trophy Meeting this Friday and we’ve four LIVE races on ITV to take in that include the Grade Two Long Distance Hurdle.

As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered with key trends and free tips.

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (ITV3/RTV)

 

1.50 – Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Novices' Chase (Registered As The Berkshire Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV3

12/13 – Aged 5 or older
12/13 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Favourites placed in the top 2
10/13 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
7/13 – Yet to win over fences
7/13 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/13 – Winning favourites
5/13 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/2
Champ (4/5 fav) won this race in 2019

TQ VERDICT: Just the three runners here, which is a shame, but we’ve some nice sorts on show still with the three powerhouse jumping yards – Henderson, Nicholls and Tizzard – locking horns. Nicholls runs his Getaway Trump, who comes here having beating a nice horse in Happygolucky at Fakenham last time out. But, for me, he’s not the most straight-forward and even though he got his act together last time he’s not the most consistent – this season he’s won twice, but thrown the towel in twice too. Henderson won this race 12 months ago with Champ and we all know what he’s done since, so he’ll be hoping to follow up that success this year with Caribean Boy. This former French horse has only run twice for Henderson but was last seen in February winning in good fashion at Haydock – beating a horse called The Big Bite, who has franked the form further by winning this season. He’s clearly a nice sort and the fact Henderson has picked him to run here further backs that up, but even though a lack of a recent run is not normally an issue for me with any Henderson runner, it’s worth pointing out he hasn’t won off his last two breaks. So that leaves me with FIDDLERONTHEROOF. This Tizzard runner is the top-rated (152) in the field so that’s the first plus – the ratings suggest he’s got 8lbs in-hand. He was also the top-rated of this trio over hurdles and has made a fair start to his chase career with a second and a win. Yes, his victory last time out at Exeter only saw him scrape home, but I feel that the Tizzard horses have been running during this early part of the season as if they are just needing a run or two. With that in mind he should be spot on now and also showed great battling qualities to get back up on the line last time out. A fascinating race that tactics are sure to play a big part but the Tizzard runner looks the safest call to me.

 

2.25 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Chase Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3f187y ITV3

12/13 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
12/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Aged 9 or younger
11/13 – Didn’t win last time out
10/13 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
10/13 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
8/13 – Rated between 131 and 140
8/13 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/13 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
2/13 – Trained by Alan King
2/13 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/13 – Trained by Dan Skelton
0/13 – Winning favourites
Oldgrangewood (6/1) won this race in 2017 and 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

TQ VERDICT: Plenty of old faces in the line-up here, but it’s hard to get away from the 2017 and 2019 winner of this race OLDGRANGEWOOD. Yes, he’s going to have to dig in again as this is a very competitive renewal again, but we know he’ll have been primed for this race again and a recent run at Aintree in the Old Roan Chase would have blown away the cobwebs. He’s also rated 12lbs higher this year, so based on that he’d had to find something extra, but the front three pulled around 17 lengths clear of the fourth 12 months ago (San Benedeto), while there having beaten the useful Saint Calvados on New Year’s Day after taking this race last year, suggests he’s improved anyway. Clondaw Castle is another that is sure to be popular after a solid second in the already mentioned Old Roan Chase this season, while Fidux and Sully D Oc AA were both good winners last time out so head here in good heart. Henderson’s course winner Whatswrongwithyou might be dangerous to rule out at a price, while the Twiston-Davies runner – Count Meribel – was well-supported last week in his race at Ascot but unseated his jockey. The NTD yard are going well at the moment overall, but the niggle would be that here at Newbury they are currently 0-from-30 with their chasers. In contrast to that stat, the Venetia Williams (32%) and Richard Hobson (57%) yards have cracking strike-rates with their chasers here, so their CEPAGE and DEFI SACRE are the other two of interest in the race. Both are proven course winners too, with Cepage having a good record fresh so the break isn’t a worry. While the consistent Defi Sacre ran the useful The Big Bite to 4 lengths in his return at Aintree recently and if building on that can get involved – so far over fences he’s been placed in the top two six times from 8 runs (4 wins).

3.00 – Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m52y ITV3

15/18 – Grade One winner over hurdles
15/18 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
13/18 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
13/18 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
13/18 – Placed favourites
12/18 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
12/18 – Had won a hurdles race at Newbury before
12/18 – Ran at either Aintree (7) or Cheltenham (5) last time out
11/18 – Winning favourites
10/18 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
9/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – French bred
8/18 – Returned odds-on in the betting
7/18 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle
7/18 – Won by a previous winner of the race
5/18 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls (inc 5 of last 11 renewals)
Paisley Park (8/15 fav) won this race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

TQ VERDICT: We’ll get some early pointers ahead of the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham here – 7 of the last 18 winners of this race went onto land that Festival day three contest. All eyes will be on the 2019 winner of this race – Paisley Park – to see if he can bounce back from his flop in the Stayers’ Hurdle back in March. This Emma Lavelle hurdler has had a nice break since and at just 8 years-old should certainly still have more to come. He’s the top-rated in the field (167) so if back on-song is certainly the one to beat, but I’m happy to give it a go taking him on. The horse that took full advantage of Park’s flop at Cheltenham was the Rebecca Curtis runner – Lisnagar Oscar – and a return run (4th) at Wetherby would have brought him on nicely for this. He’s finished in the top three in 7 of his 11 hurdles starts and at 7 years-old could have more to come. But with only 1 win from this last 9 races, that would be a concern for me – albeit that was the Stayers’ Hurdle! Summerville Boy won well at Aintree last time out but, for me, he’s better over that sort of 2m4f trip and I’m not sure this step back to 3m is in his favour after being beaten each time he’s tried it. Sam Spinner is interesting back over hurdles after a spell over fences, but he’d probably want it a lot softer, while with the Hobbs yard in good form at the moment their Thyme Hill looks a big player too. He was last seen running a fine fourth in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival in March. If building on that he could easily make a splash in his division this season. But another horse that could make a name for himself in these top staying races this term is the Paul Nicholls-trained MCFABULOUS. This 6 year-old has now won his last three and returned at Chepstow last month with a smooth win over 2m4f. Yes, this is the first time he’s tried 3m but his running style suggests it will suit and the fact Nicholls is upping him in trip suggests he thinks the same. Big Buck’s was, of course a multiple winner of this race for the Nicholls camp in past years and although this horse, who is also a proven course winner, has got a long way to go to get to those heights, his attitude has caught the eye and could easily give a back-to-form Paisley Park something to think about getting 3lbs from last year’s winner too.

3.35 – Play Ladbrokes 1-2 Free On Football Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+ 0-145) 3m52y ITV3

12/13 – Placed 5th or better last time out
12/13 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
12/13 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
10/13 – Raced at either Cheltenham (5), Wincanton (3) or Wetherby (2) last time
10/13 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
10/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/13 – Irish-bred winners
7/13 – Won just 1-2 times over hurdles
7/13 – Yet to win over 3m (or further) over hurdles
5/13 – Winning favourites
5/13 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/13 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/13 – Trained by David Pipe
2/13 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
Vive Le Roi won this race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

TQ VERDICT: The Nigel Twiston-Davies runner – Hill Sixteen – will be popular here after a very easy win at Ffos Las last time out over fences. He gets in here off a 3lbs lower rating over hurdles and with just 10st-4lbs to carry could be thrown-in. However, this opposition will also be harder, and the ground is likely to be a lot quicker here – won on heavy last time. It’s hard to crab his chance with the light weight, but he doesn’t look great value in a race with plenty of experienced sorts in. That could be good news though as this might mean the others in the race will be better prices. With that in mind, the two I’ll be playing are DELL’ ARCA (e/w) and SAMBURU SHUJAA (e/w), who both hail from yards that have won this race in the past. The former is from the David Pipe team that won this in 2014 and 2019, so know what’s needed. Dell’ Arca also heads here in good order having won his last two and a 6lb rise for the last of those looks fair. Regular pilot, Fergus Gillard remains in the saddle to take off 5lbs and having been rated in the 140’s a few years ago still doesn’t look too badly-treated off this current rating of 131! The other pick – Samburu Shujaa – comes from the Philip Hobbs team, who last won this race in 2012 with the popular Fair Along. The yard are in much better form at the moment than a few weeks ago and after a time chasing last season (0-from-3) the switch back to hurdles looks a good move having won a Pertemps Qualifier Hurdle off a 2lbs lower mark at Chepstow back in Feb 19. Conditions look ideal and Richard Johnson riding is, of course, a further bonus. Of the rest, Coeur De Lion, I K Brunel and Neville’s Cross are others that should go well.

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