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12th August 2020

Glorious Goodwood Trends & Free Tips: DAY TWO (Weds 29th July 2020)

It's panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore at the end of July with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 28th July to Sat 1st Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So we'll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

We continue on Day TWO with four LIVE ITV races, including the Molecomb Stakes, plus the Group One Sussex Stakes.

DAY TWO - Wednesday 29th July 2020

1.45 – Unibet You’re On Goodwood Handicap Cl2 2m5f ITV

17/18 – Aged 7 or younger
14/18 – Had 3+ runs already that season
14/18 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat
11/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/18 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat
10/18 – Had run at Goodwood before
10/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/18 – Placed favourites
7/18 – Carried 9-0 or more
6/18 – Won last time out
4/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
5/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/18 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/18 – Trained by Ian Williams
2019 Winner: Timoshenko (9/1)

This has been a fair race for the Mark Johnston yard in recent years – winning the prize in 2012 and 2013. With that in mind, their SUMMER MOON (e/w) looks interesting here. He ran well to be third in the Ascot Stakes over this trip last month and meets the winner that day – Coeur De Lion – on 5lbs better terms and was only beaten 1 ¼ lengths. He’s since ran below-par at Sandown but that was in a much hotter race (G3) so the drop back into a handicap will help. Johnston also runs Rochester House and a case can be made for him. The already mentioned Coeur De Lion will still be a popular choice and has to go well, while the likes of The Grand Visir and Blue Laureate are others to consider. But the other pick is the Roger Charlton runner – TRUE DESTINY – who was a running on third at Newbury last time out over 2m. He gets in here with a light weight and also has history in this race after running a close third in it last year, so we know he stays the distance well. Seinesational was runner-up in this race 12 months ago so has to be respected too, while the in-form Stonific and the Paul Nicholls runner – Oleg, who has won his last two, are others that punters are sure to latch onto.

2.15 –Unibet 3 Boosts A Day Handicap Cl2 1m4f ITV

16/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
14/16 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
10/16 – Winning favourites
10/16 – Rated between 84-93
10/16 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
9/16 – Won over 1m4f previously
8/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the market
6/16 – Won their last race
4/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/16– Trained by Mark Johnston
3/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
1/16 – Winning favourites
10 of the last 14 winners came from stall 10 or lower
2019 Winner: Sir Ron Priestley (6/1)

This is another race the Mark Johnston yard have done well in recently – winning three of the last six runnings - and I was taken by the way his runner – GLENTIES (e/w) – won last time out at Windsor. He’s up just 4lbs for that but stayed on really well over that 1m3f trip so suggest there should be more to come over this slightly longer distance. Johnston also have King’s Caper in the race, who is the top-rated in the contest. Frankie and John Gosden team-up with Encipher, who is in much calmer waters here after contesting the G2 Dante Stakes last time out. He’s the second top-rated in the race though and with 10 of the last 14 winners coming from stalls 10 or lower then his draw (11) might not be ideal. Mambo Nights and A Star Above have both won their last two and look progressive sorts and are two of only three proven distance winners in the field – the other being Carlos Felix. Of that bunch, the William Haggs runner – A STAR ABOVE – looks the most interesting. The yard have a cracking 25% record with their 3 year-olds at the track and despite needing another step forward here gets in with a very low weight (8-2) and the up-and-coming Hollie Doyle gets the ride.

 

2.45 – Markel Insurance Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV

16/18 – Had won over 5f before
15/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
13/18 – Had won between 1-2 times before
13/18 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
12/18 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
12/18 – Foaled in either Feb or March
11/18 – Winning distance – 1 lengths or less
11/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/18 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/18 – Trained by William Haggas
Horse from stall 1 has finished in the top 3 in 7 of the last 11 runnings
2019 Winner: Liberty Beach (11/8 fav)

Trainers Andrew Balding (5%) and Richard Fahey (5%) don’t have a great record with their 2 year-olds at the track so their runners – Night On Earth and Internationaldream – are overlooked. In contrast, the Aidan O’Brien yard have a decent 23% record with their juveniles at the course so their Chief Little Hawk, with Ryan Moore riding, catches the eye. This 2 year-old is the most experienced in the field with 4 runs and flopped in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out and hasn’t really set the world alight in two Listed races since. Significantly has run second in his three races to date and should go well and comes from stall 1 and horses from that draw have finished in the top three in 7 of the last 11 runnings. Army Of India flopped in the Coventry two runs ago, but made amends last time out with a very easy win at Lingfield in a much easier race on the AW. Steel Bull is another interesting runner from Ireland, who won well on debut, but the Roger Varian runner – SARDINA SUNSET gets the nod after a good Listed win at York last time out. She did it well that day and being a filly gets a handy 3lbs from the others in the race – last year we also saw a filly win the race too. Of the rest BEN MACDUI (e/w) showed a good attitude at Hamilton on debut and it’s interesting he’s up in grade here – there could be more to come from him.

3.15 – Qatar Sussex Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

17/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
17/19 – Won over 1m before
16/19 – Had won 4 or more times during their career
15/19 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
12/19 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
12/19 – Has Won a Group One previously
11/19 – Winning favourites
10/19 – Aged 3 years-old
4/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/19 – Aged 4 years-old
3/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Just 1 winner from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
10 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 3-5 (inc)
2019 Winner: Too Darn Hot (Evs fav)

Kameko didn’t quote stay the 1m4f Derby trip so it’s no shock to see the 2,000 Guineas winner back in trip to a mile here. He gets a handy 8lbs from the older horses like Circus Maximus and Mohaather - that gives him a top chance – it’s hard to put you off his chance. Wichita, was a close second in that 2,000 Guineas and has since run a sound third in the G1 St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot – he’s yet to finish out of the first three from 6 runs so is another that looks likely to have a say, but might just find a few too good again. The already mentioned Circus Maximus is the joint top-rated in the field with Mohaather and this gutsy performer has already landed three Group One races. He was a ½ length second in this race 12 months ago too and another bold bid looks on the cards. Mohaather was 5 lengths behind Circus Maximus in that Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot but has since bolted up in the G2 Summer Mile at the same track – beating another likely runner here – San Donato – by an easy 3 ¾ lengths. He’s only had 7 career runs (4 wins) so could have more to come – one for the shortlist. But the call is for the unbeaten Ger Lyons runner – SISKIN – to continue it’s winning run. He’s won all 5 of his races now, including the Irish 2,000 Guineas last time out on his first try over this 1m trip. He’s won on ground ranging from good-to-firm to soft so no issues on that score either and being another 3 year-old in the race gets a handy 8lbs from the older entries.

 

3.45 – British Stallion Studs Alice Keppel EBF Fillies’ Conditions Stakes (Plus 10/GBB Race) (Class 2) (2yo) 5f ITV

Only 1 previous running
Trainer Mark Johnston won this race in 2019
Trainer Charlie Appleby has a 44% record with his 2 year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 39% record riding 2 year-olds at the track
Jockey James Doyle has a 24% record riding 2 year-olds at the track

 

Some nice types on show here, but a race that’s only had one past running. That was taken by the Mark Johnston yard so their Pelekai will be hoping to follow-up, but probably needs to show a bit more than she’s done in recent races after winning on debut at Newcastle. Spright was a good winner at York last time and looks a useful sort but with a 44% record with his 2 year-olds at the track the Charlie Appleby runner – MISS JINGLES – is the call. This juvenile won last time out at Sandown and looks the sort to have more in the locker. She only just did enough in that last win but is clearly still learning the game and with the yard seemingly having a few to pick from to run here it’s interesting they’ve sided with her.

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