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12th August 2020

Glorious Goodwood Trends & Tips: DAY FOUR (Fri 31st July 2020)

It's panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore at the start of August with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 28th to Sat 1st Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So we'll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

We continue on Day FOUR with four LIVE ITV races, including the Betfred Mile, plus the Group Two King George Stakes.

DAY FOUR - Friday 31st July 2020

1.45 – Saint Clair Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 7f

11/11 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/11 – Didn’t win last time out
11/11 – Won between 2-4 times before
10/11 – Won over at least 7f before
9/11 – Officially rated 100+
8/11 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/11 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the betting
7/11 – Irish-bred
4/11 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/11 – French-trained winners (3 of the last 5)
4/11 – Had won at the track before
2/11 – Winning favourites
2019 Winner: Billesdon Brook (12/1)

Boomer and Anna Nerium are the two proven CD winners in the field so have to be respected, while we’ve a French raider coming over too in Wasmya, that must be thought to have a chance to come all this way – 3 of the last 5 winners came from France. With ALL of the last 11 winners aged 3 or 4 then this is a big negative for the older horses in the race like One Master, wo is sure to be popular and is the top-rated in the field. Agincourt, Anna Nerium and Breathtaking Look are the other older runners in the line-up. Godolphin have a decent hand in the race too with Final Song and Althiqa, who was a good winner last time out in France and has won 3 of her last 4 races. But the two I like here are the already mentioned French runner – WASMYA – and the Frankie ridden VALERIA MESSALINA. The former should find this race a bit easier than the G2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes she ran in last time. The drop back to 7f will also suit and James Doyle is a plus in the saddle. The other pick – Valeria Messalina – comes over from the Jessie Harrington yard and was a nice G3 winner at Cork last time out over this trip. She gets a handy 4lbs from the older horses but looks the sort to have more in the locker with only 4 career runs. Frankie riding is the icing on the cake.

 

2.15 – Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m ITV

17/18 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
15/18 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
14/18 – Had not won a Group 3 or better before
13/18 – Had won at least twice during their career
13/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/18 – Ran at either Newbury (2), Goodwood (2) or Newmarket (5) last time out
6/18 – Had run at Goodwood before
6/18 – Won last time out
6/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
3/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 – Trained by Brian Meehan
2/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2019 Winner: Duke Of Hazzard (3/1 fav)
6 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1-3 (inc)

Note: 2012 was a dead-heat

Just the five runners here and really the ratings suggest the Roger Varian runner – KHALOOSY – will be hard to beat. Rated 111 and 6lbs clear of anything else in the field, this 3 year-old has won his last two in good fashion – including an easy winner of the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. He’s into Group company for the first time, but the manner of that last victory was impressive enough to say he more than deserves to take the step up in class. Mystery Power is the next best rated in the field and was a fair second in a Listed race at HQ last time out – he can go well but after showing promise last season is now five runs without a win. The lesser exposed pair of My Oberon and Tilsit, with Ryan Moore riding, look the more progressive to me and rate the main dangers to the main pick. Repartee makes up the five runners, but needs to bounce back from a dire run last time out at Newbury.


2.45 –
Unibet Golden Mile (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

17/18 – Aged 6 or younger
16/18 – Had won over at least 1m before
16/18 – Had raced 3 or more times that season
15/18 – Had won 3 or more races during their career
11/18 – Never raced at Goodwood before
11/18 –Priced 7/1 or shorter
11/18 – Carried 8-13 or less
10/18 – Aged  4 or 5 years-old
9/18 – Unplaced favourites
9/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
6/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Won their last race
3/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
13 of the last 15 winners were drawn 9 or lower
12 of the last 15 runnings saw the first two both drawn in 11 or lower
2019 Winner: Beat Le Bon (17/2)

15 runners here but some fair trends to look at. 17 of the last 18 winners were aged 6 or younger so that’s a negative for the 7 year-old Zwayyan. 13 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 9 or lower so these horses tick this stat – ALMUFTI, PROMPTING, VALE OF KENT, CLIFFS OF CAPRI, CARDSHARP, BLESS HIM, SIR BUSKER, WILLIE JOHN and URBAN ICON. It’s also another race the Mark Johnston yard have done well in recently – they run Vale Of Kent, Blown By Wind and CARDSHARP (e/w). The last-named looks to be running into form too after a fair third at Ascot last week and despite a few doubts about the trip, he stayed on well enough over 7f last time to suggest he’s worth another crack at it. With Jim Crowley picking Montatham over the other Maktoum runner – Afaak – that hint should be taken too, but draw 15 might not be ideal. Of those drawn lower – SIR BUSKER (e/w) is the other one I’ll be playing. This consistent performer this season has also won at the track before and has been running well in these big-field handicaps this season. He ran on well to be second in the Bunbury Cup last time over 7f, but with two wins over this 1m trip before that, then this step up in distance looks a plus too. The hat-trick seeking Prompting was a nice winner at York last time but the step up to 1m might not suit (beaten the last twice over this trip) and is also up in grade and 3lbs higher. Of the rest Cliffs Of Capri can go well but does seem to save his best for Ascot these days.

 

3.15 - King George Qatar Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV –

18/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
17/18 – Had won over 5f before
15/18 – Didn’t win last time out
14/18 – Had won 4 or more times in their careers
13/18 – Ran at York, Ascot or Newmarket last time out
12/18 – Placed favourites
12/18 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
11/18 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
8/18 – Had run at Goodwood before
7/18 – Winning favourites
6/18 – Had only won at Listed Class before
4/18 – Trained by the Hills yard
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 – Trained by William Haggas
2/18 – Trained by Bryan Smart
Battaash won the race in 2018 and 2019
10 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 8 or lower
Horses from stall 4 and 8 have won 4 of the last 13 runnings

This race should be fairly simple – it will be a shock if it’s not BATTAASH first and the rest playing for places. This 126-rated sprinter has won this race for the last two seasons and despite having to give weight away all round still seems to have a lot in-hand based on the ratings. He returned better than ever to win the King’s Stand Stakes easily at Ascot last time out and can fire in career win number 12 here. Of the rest, Glass Slippers and the consistent Liberty Beach can fight out the places, with preference for the latter, who is the only other CD winner in the field.

3.15 - L'Ormarins Queen's Plate Glorious Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

10/10 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Rated between 110-114
9/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/10 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
8/10 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
7/10 – Had run at the track before
7/10 – Placed favourites
7/10 – Drawn between 3-8 (inc)
6/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/10 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Desert Encounter (15/2) won this race 12 months ago

The David Simcock-trained DESERT ENCOUNTER (e/w) won this race 12 months ago and looks primed to go well again. This 8 year-old is still showing a good level of form after a close third in a G2 last time out at Newmarket and having won twice in early August last season seems to like this time of the year. The consistent Communique has been running well of late and is a proven course winner – he can make a bold bid from the front, but is 7 races without a win now and tends to find a few too good at the moment. Le Don De Vie, Spirit Of Appin and Pablo Escobarr are other course winners in the field to respect, but a chance is also taken on the David Menuisier runner – THUNDERING BLUE (e/w). This 7 year-old is returning from a break but had been running in better races than this last season. He’s run okay at the track before, while as mentioned a few times this week the yard are in good form with their runners so I’m hoping that applies to this horse too.

 

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