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30th October 2020

Glorious Goodwood Trends & Tips: DAY THREE (Thurs 30th July 2020)

It's panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore at the end of July with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 28th July to Sat 1st Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So we'll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

We continue on Day THREE with four LIVE ITV races, including the Richmond Stakes, Lillie Langtry Stakes, plus the Group One Nassau Stakes for fillies and mares.

DAY THREE - Thursday 30th July 2020

 

1.45 – Unibet You're On Handicap Cl2 1m2f ITV

16/17 – Had won between 1-3 times before
15/17 – Winning distance – 1 ¾ lengths or less
15/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
15/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Rated between 91-99
13/17 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
12/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
11/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
10/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
7/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Had raced at Goodwood before
5/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston (3 of last 7 runnings)
5/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Trained by John Gosden
3/17 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
2/17 – Ridden by William Buick
No winner from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
Stall 14 has been placed in 5 of the last 14 runnings
10 of the last 14 winners came from stall 11 or lower
7 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 4-7 (inc)
2019 Winner: Forest Of Dean (4/1 jfav)

With a 25% record at the track with his 3 year-olds the William Haggas team have to be respected – they run Al Salt, who heads here on a three-timer after wins at Newcastle and Windsor. He’s into a handicap for the first time and looks on a fair enough mark (88) – Jim Crowley rides. Frankie and Gosden team-up with Magical Morning and is sure to be popular but neds to bounce back from an average run at Newmarket last time out. It was, however, in a Listed race so the drop in grade will help. Andrew Balding is another yard that does well at the track with this age group (22%) so his Group One Power is respected – but with no winners from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings would have this stat to overcome. However, with the Mark Johnston yard winning 3 of the last 7 runnings their entries – IFFRAAZ (e/w) and ZABEEL CHAMPION get the call. The former needs to bounce back from a dire run at HQ last time – was 13 lengths last behind Zabeel Champion, but is better than that. He should be more at home on the better ground and that was also his first run for 272 days and after being gelded – I expect a better effort. But the main call is the other Johnston runner – Zabeel Champion. As mentioned, he won well the last day at Newmarket and despite being 8lbs higher looks a progressive sort that should have more to offer. Ryan Moore has also been booked to ride and with just 5 career runs can be expected to come on again. Finally, the other of interest is the David Menuisier runner – LUIGI VAMPA (e/w). The yard are in top form at the moment and is one of just two proven course winners in the field. You can ignore his last run as swerved at the start and unshipped his jockey. Hopefully that was just a one-off, but the ability to act on the course is a plus and gets in here with just 8-8 in weight.

 

2.15 – Qatar Richmond Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV

17/18 – Had won 1 or 2 races before
17/18 – Had won over 5 or 6f before
16/18 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
15/18 – Never raced at Goodwood before
15/18 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Placed last time out
13/18 – Won by a Feb or March foal
12/18 – Won their previous race
8/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
7/18 – Winning favourites
6/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon (inc last 6 of last 10 runnings)
2/18 – Trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam
3 of the last 13 winners came from stall 2
9 of the last 14 horses from stall 2 finished in the top 3
3 of the last 14 winners came from stall 6
12 of the last 14 winners came from stall 2-7 (inc)
2019 Winner: Golden Horde (15/2)

Gussy Mac and Supremacy are the only two last time out winners in the field so command respect, but you feel more is needed here from them. The later does, however, represent last year’s winning yard of Clive Cox and did things nicely at Windsor last time out. Aidan O’Brien won this race two years ago and tries again with Admiral Nelson. This 2 year-old was a beaten jolly in the Coventry Stakes last time out at Ascot. He did fluff the start that day though so did have an excuse and might be worth giving another chance to. However, the two that standout for me are Qaader, who was runner-up in the Coventry Stakes and ran okay last time in the July Stakes at HQ, plus YAZAMAN. The later was second in that July Stakes so had the measure of Qaader last time and prior to that was a close second in the Windsor Castle Stakes. Both times he was beaten by the useful Tactical but with that horse not running this time looks to have found a good chance to gain his second career win.

 

2.45 – John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV

17/17 – Won between 1-3 times before
15/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/17 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
12/17 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/17 – Winning distance – neck or shorter
9/17 – Went onto run in the St Leger
7/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – Raced at Ascot last time out
6/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Went onto win the St Leger
11 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 4-10 (inc)
The horse from stall 7 has won 4 of the last 13 runnings
Horses from stalls 4,7 & 10 have won 8 of the last 13 runnings
2019 Winner: Nayef Road (9/1)

All eyes here will be on ENGLISH KING, who was well fancied in the Epsom Derby last month. He ran well to be fifth that day in a strangely run race, but before that was a nice winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial. Frankie Dettori remains in the saddle and is worth giving another chance to. He sweated up a bit the last day and also wasn’t the best away, so did have a few excuses. Of the rest, Al Aasy has won his last two in good fashion, including the G3 Bahrain Stakes last time out at HQ. He’s a big player again and certainly looks a horse on the up. However, he’s got to give 3lbs away to the others as a result of winning a G3 recently and that might not be easy. Khalifa Sat will be a danger to the selection and is the only course winner in the field. This 3 year-old ran a cracker to be second in the Epsom Derby so does have form to beat English King but there wasn’t a lot between them that day – I just feel that with English King having won over this sort of trip in the past that will be more of a plus. Mogul, from the Aidan O’Brien yard, was 6th in the Derby and is another to note, while there could be more to come from the Mark Johnston runner – SUBJECTIVIST, who was a nice Listed winner at Hamilton last time out.

3.15 – Qatar Nassau Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m1f192y ITV

15/16 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the market
15/16 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/16 – Aged either 3 or 4 years-old
12/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/16 – Had won a Group One race previously
11/16 – Winning Favourites
11/16 – Won between 2-4 times before
10/16 – Had won over 1m2f previously
4/16 – Won by the Aidan O’Brien yard
3/16 – Ridden by Tom Queally
3/16 – Trained by John Gosden
2/16 – Won by the Sir Michael Stoute yard
11 of the last 14 winners were drawn 7 or lower
Stalls 1, 6 and 7 have won 9 of the last 14 renewals
2019 Winner: Deirdre (20/1)

A decent renewal of this Group One and we’ve last year’s winner – DEIRDRE (e/w) – lines-up again. This runner from Japan caused a bit of a shock to land the prize 12 months ago but being the only proven CD winner in the field has to be respected – Oisin Murphy, who rode her last year, is back in the saddle. She can’t be ruled out being a past winner as she looks to become the first horse since Midday to win the race back-to-back. Yes, she was down the field in the Coral-Eclipse last time out and has not won a race since taking this last year, but wasn’t beaten far last time and that came off a break so can be expected to have improved for it. It's interesting that Ryan Moore isn’t riding Magic Wand for Aidan O’Brien, but prefers to get the leg-up on the Donnacha O’Brien runner – FANCY BLUE. She landed a top G1 in France last time out and looks a very classy filly – with just 4 career runs should have more to come and gets a handy 9lbs off the older horses in the race. She’s the second top-rated in the field behind Nazeef, but getting the 9lbs means she’s in theory got 7lbs in hand and that might prove to be the difference. Nazeef, looks the main danger to me though – she was a winner of the Falmouth Stakes last time out and is a horse that only seems to just do enough in her races. She’s now won her last 6 and now upped to 1m2f could have more to come, but I happy to stick with Ryan Moore, who is looking for his third win in this race since 2016. Of the rest, Lavender’s Blue is a nice horse, but a bit to prove at the highest level, while the same has to be said for the Sir Michael Stoute runner – Queen Power.  

3.45 Gusbourne Nursery Handicap Cl2 (2yo) 7f ITV

10/10 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Had won 0-1 times before
9/10 – Had run in the last 3 weeks
9/10 – Placed favourites
9/10 – Foaled between Feb-April
9/10 – Winners from stalls 7 or lower
8/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Rated between 78-88
6/10 – Carried 9-0 or more in weight
5/10 – Winning favourites
5/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Ran at Epsom last time out
3/10 – Had run at Goodwood before
3/10 – Trained by Mark Johnston
3/10 – Won by the Hannon yard
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

Trainer Mick Channon has a 20% record with his 2 year-olds at the track so his Rommel is interesting, but with the Mark Johnston yard (19%) also having a fine record with their juveniles at the course and also having won 3 of the last 10 runnings their pair CODEBOOK and MONZA CITY stand out. The former has the better form in the book after two good runs at Doncaster and Yarmouth, but now into a handicap can be more competitive. The same applies to Monza City, who wasn’t beaten far last time out at HQ, despite finishing last of five in that race – there should be more to come from them both and it’s interesting they are picked to run in a race the stable like to target. William Bligh will be popular too after a nice win at Haydock last time, but it might not be easy with 9-7 to carry and giving weight away all round. The Hannon runners – Running Back and Mark Of The Man – are two others that have shown a good level of form to date and have to be respected too.

 

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