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24th November 2020

Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 18th July 2020

This Saturday we’ve another busy day of LIVE ITV Racing with the cameras heading to York and Newbury to take in seven races across the two venues.

At York, the John Smith’s Cup (2:30) is the feature contest – a race that 16 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 or younger.

Then at Newbury, the Group Three Hackwood Stakes (4.00) tops the bill.

Like all big race days, here at TQ we've got the LIVE races covered with key trends and stats – use these to whittle down the runners and find the best profile of past winners.

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York Horse Racing Trends

1:55 - John Smith's Silver Cup Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV4

14/14 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
13/14 – Won from stall 10 or lower
12/14 – Aged 5 or younger
11/14 – Didn’t win their previous race
10/14 – Placed favourites
7/14 – Aged 4 years-old
7/14 – Had run at York before
5/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/14 – Horses from stall 2 that finished second
3/14 – Winning favourites
Red Verdon (20/1) won the race in 2019

TQ VERDICT: Communique ran well to be second at Newmarket last time out and as the top-rated in the field has to command respect. However, he does seem to save his best to Newmarket and has so far run at York twice and been out of the frame both times. The call though is the Godolphin runner – MOONLIGHT SPIRIT. This 4 year-old clearly found the Ascot Gold Cup trip of 2m4f beyond him last time and didn’t stay. With that in mind, the drop back to 1m6f is a big plus and that last run also came off a 257-day break and was also his first run after being gelded. He ran well a long way in that Gold Cup, but over this more suitable trip can go well and ran well around this sort of distance twice in France last season in G2 and G3 races. Of the rest, Universal Order & Eagles By Day have the form to go well, while Ranch Hand makes up the five runners but would look to have a bit to find on the ratings.

 

2:30 - John Smith's Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2½f ITV4

17/18 – Returned 20/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Aged 5 or younger
16/18 – Had won over 1m1f or further before
14/18 – Had between 3-5 previous runs already that season
13/18 – Came from stall 9 or higher
12/18 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Carried 9-3 or less
11/18 – Top 4 finish in their previous race
10/18 – Aged 4 years-old
10/18 – Officially rated between 99-105
9/18 – Had run at York before
6/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
3/18 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey
2/18 – Trained by William Haggas
2/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 11/1

TQ VERDICT: With 16 of the last 18 winners aged 5 or younger this is a negative for the likes of What’s The Story, Pivoine, Afaak, Euchen Glen, Nicolas T and Anythingtoday. Trainers Richard Fahey and William Haggas has won 5 of the last 18 runnings so their runners are respected too. Haggas has Desert Icon who was a very easy winner (8 1/2l ) at Newmarket last time out. He’s up 9lbs for that, but could not have been more impressive and looks one for the shortlist. However, 13 of the last 18 winners came from stall 9 or higher – so this could potentially rule out 8 of the 22 runners – Afaak, Dark Jedi, Baltic Baron, Pivoine, Desert Icon, Great Example, Sinjaari and Archie Perkins. A top 4 finish last time out and carrying 9-3 or less are other decent trends to have onside. And with that in mind, the Sir Michael Stoute runner – SOLID STONE – ticks a lot of boxes. This 4 year-old was a good winner at Sandown last month and despite a 7lb rise for that should have more in the locker. That was his first run back after being gelded and also his first for 287 days. The step up to 1m2f is fine too having won over this trip in the past and William Buick is a plus in the saddle. Of the others, Frankie and Gosden teaming-up with Harrovian will surely have it’s supporters and heads here off the back of a good win last month at Doncaster – beating Archie Perkins, who reopposes, by a head. Fifth Position and Sky Defender are other interesting runners that both won well last time too, but will need more now up in the ratings. Wait Forever is a consistent performer that ticks a lot of the main trends too, but does have over 8 lengths to find with Desert Icon based on it’s run last time. So, the other one I like is the Ed Walker runner – CARADOC. This 5 year-old wasn’t beaten far (4 ¼) lengths last time at Epsom, on what was his first run back for 231 days. He’s won 4 of his 9 starts on the turf and been placed a further twice. Trip and ground look ideal and that last run should have him spot-on for this – James Doyle has been booked to ride.

 

3:05 - John Smith's City Walls Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 5f ITV4

9/9 – Won over 5f before
9/9 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
9/9 – Rated between 101 and 111
8/9 – Placed favourites
6/9 – Unplaced last time out
6/9 – Had only won at Handicap class before
6/9 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
5/9 – Won by a neck or less
6/9 – Won at York before
3/9 – Ran at Ascot last time out
Copper Knight won the race in 2019

TQ VERDICT: Plenty of chances here with 7 of the 9 runners proven course winners. 6 of the last 9 winners were aged between 5-7 years-old so that may be seen as a negative for the likes of Moss Gill (4), Que Amoro (4), Aberama Gold (3) and Al Raya (3), but it’s the last-named of that bunch – AL RAYA – that catches the eye. This filly is rated 103, but also gets a handy bit of weight from the others being a filly and a 3 year-old. She’s run well in two Listed contests this season and overall has finished in the top two in 5 of her 8 races. William Buick catches the eye in the saddle too. Of the rest, QUE AMORO is also worth having an interest in. This fast-improving sprinter from the Michael Dods yard was a very easy winner of a Listed race up at Ayr last month and at the age of 4 looks the sort this yard will improve further.

 

3:40 - William Hill Extra Places Every Day Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-93) 1m4f ITV4

9/10 – Won over 1m2f or further
8/10 - Drawn in stalls 1-9 (inc)
8/10 – Won between 1-3 times
8/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/10 – Aged 5 or younger
7/10 – Had run at York before
6/10 – Placed favourites
6/10 – Rated between 93-98 (inc)
4/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Won from stalls 8,9 or 10
3/10 – Ran at York last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/10 – Trained by Saeed Bi Suroor
2/10 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope

TQ VERDICT: Arctic Fox is the only proven CD winner in the field so must have a chance based on that, while MAYFAIR SPIRIT and Where’s Jeff are the only past winners over this 1m4f trip in the line-up. Of the pair, the Charlie Fellowes yard have a fair record with their 4_ year-old at the track and this horse has been a little superstar for the yard – winning 5 times from just 9 runs on the turf. The latest of those successes came at Windsor last month and a 4lb rise might not be enough to see her not go well again here, albeit in a higher class of race. Make My Day is another to note and hails from the Ralph Beckett yard that won this race two years ago. With the Haggas yard going well at the moment then their Al Muffrih is another that is on the shortlist. But with wins in this race in 2017 and 2012 it might be worth taking a chance on the Tim Easterby runner – SECRETARIAL (e/w). This 4 year-old gets in here with a light weight but the step up to 1m4f for the first time looks interesting. She’s run okay this year over 1m2f but has raced as if the longer distance will suit. Any rain would also help.

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends

2.15 bet365 Rose Bowl Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV4

10/10 – Foaled in Feb, Mar or April
10/10 – Had run in the last 4 weeks
10/10 – Won over 6f before
9/10 – Drawn in stall 4 or lower
8/10 – Won just once before
7/10 – Returned 7/2 or less
7/10 – Placed favourites
7/10 – Foaled in March or April
6/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/10 – Unplaced last time out
5/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/10 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan

TQ VERDICT: The Mark Johnston yard have a 23% record with their 2 year-olds at the track and run Bowman, who heads here off the back of two nice wins. However, another yard that does well with their juveniles here (21%) is the Martyn Meade camp – they run METHOD. This 2 year-old bolted-up on debut at Doncaster last month (4 ¼) lengths and with the runner-up that day – Fev Rover – running the useful Dandalla – close in the G2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes last weekend, the form looks rock solid. Drawn 7 suggest that might be a negative, but I’m still siding with him - Oisin Murphy rides. With 9 of the last 10 winners drawn between 1-4, then of the rest Tanfantic, Fountain Cross, Bowman and Imperial Yellow are others to note.

 

2:50 - British EBF/bet365 Premier Fillies' Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV4

10/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/10 – Won between 1-4 times before
9/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
8/10 – Drawn in stall 3 or higher
8/10 – Rated between 83-92
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
7/10 – Carried 9-5 or more in weight
7/10 – Had won over 1m before
7/10 – Won between 1-3 times
4/10 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/10 – Trained by Mark Johnston
1/10  - Winning favourite

 

TQ VERDICT: A fair race for the Mark Johnston yard in recent years (won the race in 2013 and 2014), so their Huboor, who was not beaten far in the Sandringham Stakes at Ascot last time, can go well. The unbeaten Tonyx is another that is sure to be popular but is returning from a 257-day break. Festive Star is the top-rated in the field, but does have it’s fair share of weight as a result. She’s got to give 17lbs to the William Haggas runner – TOMORROW’S DREAM – and that looks a lot. The Haggas yard also boast a decent 21% record with their 3 year-olds at the track and Hollie Doyle is a top jockey booking. This filly won well at Chepstow last time out and despite this being a big step up in grade (8lbs higher) that means she actually races with 15lbs less in actual racing weight than last time.

 

3:25 - bet365 Aphrodite Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m4f ITV4

15/16 – Won over at least 1m2f or further before
14/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Won between 1-2 times before
6/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/16 - Winning favourite
5/16 – Ran at Haydock last time out
5/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Trained by John Gosden

Note: Normally run at Newmarket

 

TQ VERDICT: Mark Johnston’s Vivid Diamond, who is the top-rated in the field, will have it’s supporters after blowing the cobwebs away last month in a Listed race at HQ. With 14 of the last 16 winners aged between 3 or 4 years-old then of the 11 runners, Shailene (5), Makawee (5) and Hyanna (5) have this age stat to overcome. La Lune should have more to come and caught the eye with a nice second last time out, while the Balding yard have a fair chance with TRIBAL CRAFT (e/w). A nice winner at Kempton last time out and even though this is a step up is a horse at the top of his game and could have more to come. But the main call is the Roger Varian runner – CABALETTA. This filly is rated 95, but gets a handy 11lbs off the older horses and that looks significant. She ran well in a Listed race at the track in June and despite being a bit outclassed in a G2 last time at Haydock, still ran a fair race. She actually beat the useful Frankly Darling at Yarmouth on debut too (Oct 19), so the potential is there for all to see.

4:00 - bet365 Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV4

 

15/16 – Won over 6f before
13/16 – Aged 5 or younger
12/16 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Had won 4 or more times before
10/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – Placed favourites
7/16 – Had won a Group race before
6/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Winners from stall 8
2/16 – Trained by Hughie Morrison
2/16 – Trained by William Haggas
2/16 – Trained by Charles Hills (2 of last 5)
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/15 – Winners from stall 1
8 of the last 12 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting

 

TQ VERDICT: The Tin Man, who won this race in 2016, is the top-rated horse in the field and dropped into a G3 would be very dangerous on old form. He was only 4 ½ lengths off the winner in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Ascot last time and with that being his first run for 245 days should be better for it. He was, however, well fancied for this race 12 months ago too, but was only 7th (of 10) as the 6/4 fav and you just wonder at the age of 8 is time starting to catch up with him - he's hard to ignore, but a bit to prove at the moment. Judicial is another 8 year-old in the field and heads here in form after a good win at Newcastle last time, while Repartee was a Listed winner at Windsor last month and being a 3 year-old gets a handy 5lbs and 8lbs with most of the others. Tabdeed, Dakota Gold and Summerghand are others to consider, but the main call here is SHINE SO BRIGHT. This Andrew Balding runner is the second highest-rated in the field and looks worth another crack at 6f. Okay, he was last in the Diamond Jubilee two runs back but last time over 7f at Epsom ran well for much of the way to suggest another run over 6f is worth a go. He should be a lot fitter now after two runs too and don’t forget he was a G2 winner at York last season (7f), when taking the City Of York Stakes. Of those at bigger prices I still think there is more to come from MUMS TIPPLE (e/w) over this trip and Ryan Moore is a plus in the saddle, while KEYSTOKE (e/w) was third in this race 12 months ago at a big price and could pop-up again.

 

 

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