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15th October 2021

Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 6th June 2020

The LIVE ITV Racing action comes thick and fast this weekend as we've several more rescheduled races that were due to be run last month.

Newmarket and Newcastle are the two venues showing the LIVE action, with top races that include the Qipco 2,000 Guineas, plus we've also the Group Three Palace House Stakes, while the Sagaro Stakes is the main event up at Newcastle.

As always, we've got all the big race key trends and stats to help you find the best profiles based on recent results.

Saturday, June 6, ITV

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends

1.50 Palace House Stakes (Group 3) 5f ITV

16/17 – Had won over 5f before
15/17 – Won 3 or more times before
14/17 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
14/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
14/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
13/17 – Had run at Newmarket before
13/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/17 – Aged 5 or younger
11/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Rated between 108 and 114
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/17 – Trained by Bryan Smart
Mabs Cross has won the race in 2018 and 2019
Just one placed horse from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
7 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 2-7 (inc)

TQ VERDICT: With only one placed horse in the last 13 runnings then this might be a negative for the Kevin Ryan-trained Major Jumbo, who is expected to be fairly well fancied for this. Despite the competitive nature of the race, it’s not been a bad one for the favourite with 6 of the last 17 market leaders winning, while 11 of the last 17 were placed. With that in mind, the likely favourite – JUDICIAL – who is also the top-rated in the field – looks to have a decent chance. This 8 year-old is not getting any younger, but showed by winning last November in a Listed race that he’s retaining his ability. Yes, he was only 7th in this race in 2019, but was a close second (neck) in 2018 and a repeat of that form would make him hard to beat. At a big price, Ornate, is a past CD winner here and could surprise as he’s now had a wind operation too. While the likes of Tarboosh, Moss Gill, Far Above and Hareem Queen are others that are sure to be popular. The other main pick though is going to be QUEENS GIFT (e/w). This 5 year-old improved through last season and ran crackers in two Listed races at the end of the campaign – beaten only ¾ of a length behind Judicial in one of those at Beverley. With the expected improvement there ought to be more in the locker for this mare.

2.25 Dahlia Fillies’ Stakes (Group 2) 1m2f ITV

16/16 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
15/16 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
15/16 – Had won over 1m (or further) before
14/16 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
12/16 – Aged 4 years-old9/16 – Had run at the course before
9/16 – Won this on first run of the season
7/16 – Ran at either Kempton (4) or Newmarket (3) last time out
7/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
6/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
6/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Ran at Kempton last time out
3/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/16 – Ridden by William Buick
2/16 – French-trained winners (2 of the last 6)
10 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)

TQ VERDICT: This race looks set to be dominated by the top three in the market – Queen Power, Magic Lily and Terebellum. The last two are Godolphin-owned and are both rated 110 so might be more much between the pair. Queen Power is a course winner too after winning here on debut and was a solid fourth in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot last June. The only concern regarding her would be the step up to G2 company, with her only win coming in Listed grade. Magic Lily ran well at G1 level in Dubai back in March, but has tried 1m2f twice in the past and been beaten both times. Therefore, that leaves us with TEREBELLUM. The John Gosden yard have started back from the break in fine order and wasn’t beaten far in the Prix de l’ Opera last time at Longchamp. The ease in grade will help and Frankie Dettori is the icing on the cake in the saddle. Of those at bigger prices, Eva Maria and Sweet Promise can do best of the rest.

3.00 Newmarket Stakes (Listed) 1m2f ITV

8/10 – Winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 2 (5)
8/10 – Won between 1 and 2 times
8/10 -  Favourites placed in the top three
8/10 – Won over at least 1m before
7/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Won last time out
7/10 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
7/10 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
5/10 – Winning favourites
5/10 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/10 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
2/10 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/10 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/10 – Ridden by William Buick

TQ VERDICT: Several promising lightly-raced sorts on show here. Al Aasy and Volkan Star have already shown a good level of form and enter calculations, while the Queen’s Punctuation was super-impressive when winning last time out at Kempton (11 lengths). This will be a lot harder in better company, but he looks a progressive sort that should make his presence felt. With 8 of the last 10 winners coming from stalls 1 or 2, then the Queens Other runner – Formality (1) and one of the John Gosden runners – MISHRIFF (e/w), who has stall 2, will be looking to uphold this stat. The last-named is one of the more experienced in the field with four runs and looks the sort to improve further now upped in trip. But it’s also interesting that the Gosden yard run another nice sort – WALDKONIG, with Frankie riding. This 3 year-old was a very easy 9 length winner on debut at Wolverhampton back in December and looks a smart prospect. Yes, this is a big step up in grade but he holds a Epsom Derby entry so this well-bred colt looks to be highly-regarded by the stable and is expected to take this Listed race before going onto better things.

3.35 Qipco 2,000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) 1m ITV

18/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/18 – Had won over at least 7f before
16/18 – Had won a Group race before
16/18 – Had won between 2-5 times before
15/18 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
14/18 – Won last time out
13/18 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
13/18 – Having their first run of the season
12/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
11/18 – Won by an Irish-based yard
10/18 – Irish bred
9/18 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
7/18 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 3
7/18 – Had won over a mile before
6/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
4/18 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (2 winners)
4/18 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
3/18 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
6 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 10/1

Other 2,000 Guineas Facts

- Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019
- Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999

TQ VERDICT: Godolphin last had the winner of the 2000 Guineas back in 2013 (Dawn Approach) and have had three winners in this Group One Classic three times in total. However, that could easily be added to here with the very useful PINATUBO looking all the rage. This 3 year-old heads into the race 6-from-6 and rounded-off last season with an easy win in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes at here at Newmarket. The step up from 7f to 1m looks fine and that track experience is another big plus. Those looking to take him on might look to the trip but he’s got plenty of stamina in his breeding to suggest this distance is fine and the way he’s been winning over 7f indicates the extra furlong is within range. He also had Arizona, who looks to be one of his main rivals here, 2 lengths back last time out in the Dewhurst so should have the beating of this Aidan O’Brien runner again. Kameko was a nice winner of the Racing Post Trophy at Newcastle last November and looks a stronger challenger to the pick in my book. This Andrew Balding runner is already proven over this 1m trip and could have a very exciting season ahead. He is, however, still rated 10lbs inferior to Pinatubo so does have a bit of ground to make up. Of the rest, Godolphin also run Al Suhail and Military March, while Frankie is an interesting booking for another Aidan O’Brien runner – Wichita. But, of those at bigger prices, the Richard Hannon runner – MUMS TIPPLE (e/w), might be worth having a small interest in. The yard are no strangers to popping up with big-priced winners in both the English Guineas and despite running poorly last time out, he had an excuse – he was found to lame after the race. Prior to that, he’d won very well twice and even though the step up to 6f to 1m is an unknown, there is some hope based on breeding. He’s a horse that likes to get on with things, so if allowed get an easy lead on this quicker ground might just get a few of these at it – it’s just whether he can maintain that sort of gallop of this longer 1 mile trip…… we’ll see.

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends

2.05 Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap 7f ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer Michael Wigham has a 25% record with his 4+ year-olds or older at the track
Trainer Tom Dascombe has a 25% record with his 4+ year-olds or older at the track
Trainer John Gosden has a 22% record with his 4+ year-olds or older at the track
Trainer Karl Burke is only 2 from 43 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds or older at the track
Jockey Tom Eaves is only 10 from 206 (5%) when riding 4 year-olds or older at the track

TQ VERDICT: A tough-looking race and no past runnings to go on re the trends. What we do know though is the Michael Wigham team have a decent 25% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track so their GLOVES LYNCH (e/w) might be worth a look in the betting. He’s shown a fair level of form to date when with the Gordon Elliott yard, but the first-time hood is an interesting addition here and also gets in with a light weight (8-13). But with the Gosden yard having returned from lockdown in great form the fact they send DAARIK up to Newcastle for this race could be significant. This 4 year-old has been gelded since it’s last race too and with two wins from just 4 runs, is a horse that knows how to get his head in front. He’s also a proven course winner and overall AW record is very good – three runs (2 wins and 1 second). He didn’t quite see out the 1m trip at the track last time out, so the drop back to 7f also looks a good move.

2.40 Sagaro Stakes (Group 3) 2m 1/2f ITV

15/17 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had won at least 3 times before
13/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/17 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
11/17 – Had won a Group race before
11/17 – Had won over at least 2m (flat) before
11/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Rated 108 or higher
8/17 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
7/17 – Winning distance – ½ or less
4/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Raced at Nottingham last time out
3/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Went onto win the Ascot Gold Cup (2 of last 8)

Note: Normally staged at Ascot

TQ VERDICT: This race is normally run at Ascot to the trends and stats from past results have to be taken with a pinch of salt. It’s a nice turnout though, with some useful stayers in the line-up. Godolphin’s Ispolini is the top-rated in the field, but has to give 3lbs away too. Withhold is the only prove CD winner in the field and is a horse that is lightly-raced for his age and goes well fresh too – certainly one for the shortlist. The Gosden yard have another good chance too with Royal Line, while the globe-trotting Prince Of Arran, who has run well in a few Melbourne Cups now, has to enter the mix, especially if the race turns into a slog. Rainbow Dancer is another going the right way after 4 straight wins and would be a nice winner on the level for trainer Alan King, but with the Mark Johnston yard in good order since the return of racing it’s interesting they run three – King’s Advice, Nayef Road and MILDENBERGER. All three are respected but the jockey bookings suggest the last-named is the one to concentrate on. This 5 year-old has won his last two over this 2m trip and both of those came on the AW too (Lingfield and Chelmsford). Yes, he was 2 ¾ lengths off Rainbow Dreamer at Kempton back in January, but is now 10lbs better off and is expected to overturn that form – he’s also one of only four proven winners over this 2m trip in the field. The others being, Prince Of Arran, Rainbow Dreamer and Withhold.

3.15 Betway Heed Your Hunch Handicap 1m ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer John Gosden has a 33% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Sir Mark Prescott has a 24% with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Hugo Palmer has a 23% record with his 3 year-olds at the track

TQ VERDICT: Another race with no trends to go on. But really this should be another for the John Gosden camp – they run PALACE PIER. This 3 year-old has caught the eye in winning both starts at Sandown last season and holds an Epsom Derby entry too. The step up from 7f to 1m will be fine and with the yard in great form it would be a shock if this exciting colt is not making it 3-from-3. Of the others, the Mark Johnston yard are another that have started the return to the season well so their Monoski, who runs for the same owners at the selection, might be able to follow the pick home. Acquitted and Embolden are others that would have place claims.

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