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12th August 2020

ITV Racing Tips and Trends: Saturday 25th July 2020

It’s King George VI And Queen Elizabeth at Ascot Racecourse this Saturday as some of the best middle-distance horses in the world line-up for this lucrative Group One. We’ve four LIVE ITV races to take in at the Berkshire track, while there’s also four races at York Racecourse that are headlined by the Group Two Sky Bet York Stakes.

As always, here at TQ we’ve got all the key trends for LIVE ITV Races this Saturday (25th July 2020) – use these stats to find the best profiles of past winners and narrow down the runners.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends

1.50 – Betfred TV Pat Eddery Stakes (Listed Race) (Formerly The Winkfield Stakes) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV

10/10 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
10/10 – Had run in the last 7 weeks
8/10 – Drawn in stalls 2, 3 or 4
8/10 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Won just once before
8/10 – Had no more than 2 previous runs
8/10 – Irish bred
7/10 – Won last time out
7/10 – Had run in the last 5 weeks
6/10 – Had won over 7f before
6/10 – Placed favourites
4/10 – Winning favourirtes
2/10 – Won by the Hannon yard
2/10 – Won by the Mark Johnston yard
0/10 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

With no winners from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings this is a negative for the Hannon runner – Chindit. Bowland Park was a good winner at Chepstow last time but this is a big step up, while the unbeaten Twaasol is another to note after good wins at Windsor and Epsom. Saint Lawrence sets a high standard on his close fourth in the G2 Superlative Stakes at HQ last time and Saeiqa ran well to be third in the G2 Coventry Stakes – both are big players and with the Gosden yard having a cracking 35% record with their 2 year-olds at the track then his Saeiqa, with Frankie riding, should go close. However, another yard that do well with their juveniles here is the Charlie Appleby yard (25%) – they run NAVAL CROWN. This Dubawi colt would have learned a lot in debut at Newmarket when third, but the ground was soft that day and on this quicker surface and with that run under his belt can be expected to go better this time – he might just have a bit more scope for improvement with only one career run, than some of the others, while the Appleby yard are in great form at present.

2.25 - Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 7f ITV

17/17 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
17/17 – Had raced at Ascot previously
15/17 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
14/17 – Won over 7f previously
13/17 – Favourites unplaced
13/17 – Carried 8-9 or more in weight
12/17 – Won between 2-4 times previously
11/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
11/17 – Winners that came from outside the top three in the market
11/17 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
10/17 – Aged 4 years-old
7/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Won their last race
5/17 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/17 – Trained by Clive Cox
2/17 – Ridden by Jimmy Quinn
1/17 – Winning favourites
Trainer Richard Fahey has won the race three times in the last 10 years
11 of the last 13 winners ran at either Ascot, Newmarket or Haydock last time out
10 of the last 13 winners came from a double-figure stall
9 of the last 13 winners finished in the top 5 last time out
Raising Sand (7/1) won the race in 2019

Note: The 2005 running was staged at Newbury

With 15 of the last 17 winners aged 5 or younger, then of the 20 runners, this rules out Spanish City, Cliffs Of Capri, Cheifofchiefs and Keyser Soze. 13 of the last 17 winners carried 8-9 or more in weight too, while 14 of the last 17 winners had won over 7f in the past. The top 14 on the card tick the weight trend, while the bulk of the runners have won over this trip in the past – only Chiefofchiefs, Ebury, Blue Mist, Kasbaan, Gin Palace and No Nonsense haven’t. Of that last bunch, Blue Mist, has been popular in the betting all week, with Ryan Moore riding – he was last seen running 9th in the Silver Wokingham at Ascot over 6f but this step up to 7f is sure to suit. Ebury is another of the main players here but he’s also another that’s not won over this distance in the past so is overlooked. With 10 of the last 13 winners coming from a double-figure stall then this is another trend to note. The Mark Johnston yard have a good record in the race too – they run Vale Of Kent and Cardsharp and with Frankie riding the first-named then this one will be popular. But the the John Gosden yard have booked the promising 5lb claimer to ride their Eshaasy who was a nice winner at Sandown last time out. He gets in here with a very light weight and the 5lb claim helps further. MUTAMAASIK (e/w) ran a stinker at Newmarket last time out but on his third in the Buckingham Palace Stakes here the time before would have a big chance. Draw 14 looks ideal and it could just be the track didn’t’ suit last time. Back at a venue we know he’s run well at, then he can be given a second chance. Of the rest, CARDSHARP (e/w), from the Mark Johnston yard that have a good record in the race, and CLIFFS OF CAPRI (e/w), who often runs well at the track, are others I think can run well.

 

3:00 – Betfred ‘Nifty Fifthy’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m ITV

8/9 – Carried 8-8 or more
6/9 – Winners between stalls 9-15
5/9 – Had won just once before
5/9 – Unplaced favourites
4/9 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/9 – Irish bred
3/9 – Returned 10/1 or bigger in the betting
3/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Winning favourite
2/9 – Ridden by William Buick
Flashcard (3/1 fav) won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Andrew Balding won the race in 2019
Trainer Clive Cox won this race in 2018
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2016
Trainer William Haggas won the race in 2014
Trainer Hughie Morrison won the race in 2012

Trainer Sir Mark Prescott is 2-from-4 with his 3 year-olds at the track so his TELL ME ALL (e/w) enters calculations. He was a decent second at Windsor last time out and with the stable going well at the moment can get involved. The Clive Cox yard won this in 2018 and send out Dance Fever here, but he’d probably need to improve on his return fourth at Windsor. Ryan Moore has been booked to ride the Queen’s EVENING SUN, who looked impressive when winning at HQ last time out. This step up to 1m (from 7f) should also bring out even more improvement and gets the nod. Of the rest, Johan was a good winner last time out and the Frankie/Gosden runner – Tsar – has to also be given a big shout after winning well at Yarmouth last time out.

3:35 - King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m4f ITV

18/18 – Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
16/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
16/18 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
16/18 – Had won over 1m4f before
15/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Placed last time out
14/18 – Previous Group 1 winner
12/18 – aged 4 years-old
11/18 – Had run Ascot before
11/18 – Won their previous race
9/18 – Favourites that won
8/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
7/18 – Won at Ascot before
4/18 – Trained by John Gosden
4/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner in 1995, 1998, 1999, 2004, 2017 and 2019
2 of the last 6 winners were that season’s Epsom Oaks winner
Galileo (2001) was the last horse to do the Derby/King George double
Trainer John Gosden won the race in 2011, 2014, 2017 and 2019
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1981, 1983, 2002, 2009, 2010 & 2018
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor won the race in 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999 & 2004
Trainer Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2001, 2007, 2008 & 2016
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 10/3

A poor turnout for the King George this year – with just 4 runners! Having said that, we’ve still got the two-time winner of the race – ENABLE – in attendance and really it would be a shock if this superstar mare can’t get back to winning ways. She’s the clear top-rated in the field (128) but also gets a handy 3lbs from the three other runners – which are ALL from the Aidan O’Brien camp. If she can win, then she’ll become the most successful horse in this races history with three wins – surpassing Dahlia and Swain. Yes, she was put in her place in the Eclipse last time out by Ghaiyyath but the step back up to 1m4f is a plus and she should also be a lot sharper for that first run after 273 days off. Of the O’Brien runners, Japan is the highest-rated on 122, with former Epsom Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck, just behind rated 121. Sovereign, who landed the Irish Derby 12 last season, is the other O’Brien runner to make up the four runners. Tactics will be interesting as the trio of Irish raiders are sure to try and gang up on Enable, but with plenty of space (only 4 runners), then Frankie and his star mare – ENABLE – should still have too much class. With Ryan Moore picking to ride Japan, then he should be following her home. William Buick rides Sovereign, while Oisin Murphy gets the leg-up on Anthony Van Dyck.

 

4:10 – Betfred.com Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 1m4f ITV

Only three past runs
3/3 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
3/3 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
3/3 – Placed favourites
3/3 – Won over at least 1m3f in the past
3/3 – Aged between 3-5 years-old
2/3 – Had run at Ascot in the past
2/3 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
1/3 – Winning favourites
2/3 – Drawn in stall 8
Western Duke won this race 12 months ago
Trainers  Ian Williams, Mick Channon and Charlie Appleby have won the race before

Not many past runs to go on here – just the three. Trainer Ian Williams won this race 12 months though with WESTERN DUKE and he might be worth chancing again. This 6 year-old was well back on his return run at Wolverhampton last month but can be expected to be stronger for that outing and he’s only rated a pound higher here. Tom Marquand is a good booking in the saddle too and if any rain comes we know he acts well with a bit of cut. It's worth noting that Williams also runs Arabist. Dreamweaver was a good winner last time out at Haydock and off just a 6lb higher mark has to enter the mix, while course winner – Frontispiece – has Ryan Moore booked to ride and looks the sort to go well. Look Closely ran a poor race last time out at HQ, but if you can forgive that run, then is another to add to the mix.  MANKAYAN is 6lbs higher for his last win at Doncaster, but that came in a 17 runner affair so the form might be better than average and looks another improving middle-distance performer from the in-form Charlie Fellowes yard.

York Horse Racing Trends

 

2:05 – Skybet Britain’s Most Popular Online Bookmaker EBF Stallions Fillies' Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 1m2½f ITV

10/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Aged between 3-5 years-old
9/10 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
9/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
8/10 – Carried between 8-12 and 9-5
7/10 – Placed favourites
7/10 – Rated between 81 and 88
7/10 – Won over 1m2f or further
7/10 – Won just 1 or 2 races before
5/10  - Winning favourites
4/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/10 – Ridden by David Allen
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

Trainer Tim Easterby has a fair record in this race so his Bollin Joan will be looking to add to that – but the ratings suggest she’s got something to find. Earth And Sky hasn’t really progressed the way she was looking set to and being 0-from-6 on the turf would be a worry. Jockey David Allen has won 2 of the last 8 runnings of the race so his ride BLACK LOTUS is another to note – he should be a lot fitter for a return run at HQ and her overall turf record is decent – 8 top three finishes from 13 runs. The only recent winner in the field is Award Scheme, who got the job done at Salisbury last time out, but an 8lb rise for that win looks a bit steep. Golden Hind and Dawaaween are others that can go well, while the Mark Johnston runner – Freyja – should find this company a lot easier than the Listed class race she ran in last October.

2:40 - Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2½f ITV

13/14 – Aged 6 or younger
13/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
12/14 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
11/14 – Had won over 1m2f before
11/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/14 – Had won at least 4 times before
9/14 – Rated between 111 and 117
8/14 – Horses from stall one that finished in the top two
8/14 – Had run at York before
7/14 – Ran at Sandown last time out
6/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Aged 6 years-old
2/14 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
Elarqam (7/1) won the race 12 months ago

A decent renewal of this Group Two race, with the seven runners heading to post rated between 110 and 119. Telecaster go back to winning ways last time out when taking a G3 race in France and heads back to the track that saw him land the Dante Stakes here last season. King Of Comedy is a proven Listed winner, but is yet to take that form into Group company with a win. A great ride for Hollie Doyle with the Stoute-trained Regal Reality – he will find this a lot easier than the G1 Coral Eclipse he contested last time out, but was only fourth in this race 12 months ago. Aspetar ran well to be second in the Listed Gala Stakes at Sandown recently and should have more to offer, but it’s hard to get away from last year’s winner in the race – ELARQAM. This Mark Johnston runner failed to see out the 1m4f of the Hardwicke Stakes last time out at Royal Ascot but prior to that was a close second to the classy Lord North in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Haydock. The return to 1m2f is a huge plus and being the top-rated (119) in the field gives him the edge on the others to. Jim Crowley also heads here to ride in preference over going to Ascot, which is another good sign.

 

3:15 – Sky Bet Club Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m ITV

8/8 – Aged between 3-6 years-old
8/8 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
8/8 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/8 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/8 – Had run at York before
6/8 – Won over at least 1m before
6/8 – Irish bred
6/8 – Winners from stalls 3-6
6/8 – Rated between 81 and 91
6/8 – Won between 1-2 times in the past
4/8 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
4/8 – Aged 4 years-old
4/8 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/8 – Winning favourites
0/8 – Winners from stall 1

No winners from stall 1 in the last 8 runnings so with this in mind – past course and distance winner - Just Hiss – is overlooked. The Richard Fahey yard are always respected here at York and they run two – Tadleel and Hartswood. Greenside was a good winner last time out and the consistent Al Erayg are two others that can’t be ruled out. But Jim Crowley looks to have another solid ride here on ELWAZIR – this 5 year-old will be fitter for a recent run at Newmarket over 1m2f, but the drop back to 1m here looks a good move. We know the horse stays further than this trip so we can expect Jim Crowley to use that proven stamina, while if any rain came that ability to stay longer would also help. The other interesting one is the O’Meara runner – ORBAAN. Why? Well, the yard have won this race a massive 4 times in the last 8 years. This horse is also a proven CD winner at the track and a 4lbs rise for that last win doesn’t look too harsh.

3:50 – Sky Bet Most Extra Place Races Handicap Cl4 (4yo+) 6f ITV

No past runnings
Trainer Richard Fahey is only 12 from 237 (5%) with this 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Nigel Tinkler is only 2 from 51 (4%) with this 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Michael Appleby is only 2 from 6 (3%) with this 4+ year-olds at the track

A tough race to end the LIVE action here. Paddy Power and Tukhoom are the two proven CD winners at the track so have to be respected. The Nigel Tinkler, Mick Appleby and Richard Fahey yards don’t exactly have inspiring strike-rates so their runners – Normandy Barriere, Barrington and Paddy Power are overlooked. Queen Of Kalahari can be expected to attract interest after winning 4 of her last five, but is up another 5lbs this time. So, the call is to stick with two in-form yards – Anthony Brittain and Richard Whitaker. The former runs MUTABAAHY (e/w) who was a nice winner at Newcastle last time out. A 5lb hike for that makes life harder, but there could be more to come from him with a lot of these handicap sprinters improving with age – he’s still only 5. The 7 year-old ROUND THE ISLAND (e/w) is another of interest. This Whitaker runner gets in with a low weight (8-4) and heads here in-form after a good win at Ripon last time out. He’s up 8lbs for that and in this better race, but won with a fair bit in-hand to suggest he’s worth a go in a race like this.

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