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7th July 2020

ITV Racing Tips and Trends: Sunday 5th July 2020

We the normal horse racing calendar still a bit up in the air at the moment, we’ve more LIVE ITV racing this Sunday – this time from Sandown and Haydock, who have both moved their big Coral-Eclipse and Old Newton Cup race days due to it being Derby Day on Saturday.

So, at Sandown we’ve the Group One Coral-Eclipse Stakes to look forward to – a race that the popular mare – Enable – will be all the rage in. Then up at Haydock, we’ve the Old Newton Cup and Group Two Lancashire Oaks are the two features that all join together for what will be a great Sunday of LIVE ITV Racing.

We’ve got all the key trends, plus our FREE tips for all the LIVE ITV Racing contests – use these stats to find the best profile of past winners.

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Sandown Horse Racing Tips and Trends

 

1:50 - Coral Charge (Group 3) (Registered As The Sprint Stakes) Cl1 (3yo+) 5f ITV

18/18 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
17/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Favourites placed
14/18 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
13/18 – Had won at least 3 times before
13/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/18 – Winning favourites
7/18 – Had won at Sandown before
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Ran at Ascot last time out
8 of the last 14 winners were Irish bred
11 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)

TQ VERDICT: Caspian Prince defied his 11 years of age last time out at Newcastle to win a nice handicap prize and can go well from the 2 draw, but this is a leap back into Group company and more will be needed. On a plus, 11 of the last 14 winners have come from stalls 1-4, so A’ALI, CASPIAN PRINCE, LAZULI and TINTO are the ones that tick this trend. All four command respect but the Crisford-trained A’ALI might stand out the most with a certain Frankie Dettori riding. She won the G2 Flying Childers at Doncaster last season but lost his way a bit after. A recent run at Newcastle would have helped bring her on and the return to 5f looks a good move – his runs over this trip read 2-1-1-10. Frankie knows the horse well and being a 3 year-old also gets weight from a lot of the other others. Of the rest, Godolphin’s LAZULI is another CD winner here and is another that’s been handed a good draw in 3. This 3 year-old is rated 109, the same as the Crisford horse, so you feel there shouldn’t be a lot between them. Liberty Beach can go well too and ran a cracker in the G1 King’s Stand so on that form is probably the one to beat, but draw 6 might not be ideal – it will still be a shock if he’s not hitting the frame at least. Maid In India and Dakota Gold are others that have the form to go well, but both will need to overcome wide draws.

 

 

2:25 - Coral Henry II Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m ITV

12/12 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
11/12 – Had won over at least 1m6f before
11/12 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
10/12 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Aged 6 or younger
10/12 – Favourites placed in the top 3
10/12 – Rated between 109 and 117
9/12 – Had run in the last 8 weeks
8/12 – Won at least 6 times in the past
8/12 – Won over at least 2m before
5/12 – Had run at the course before
5/12 – Winning favourites
4/12 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/12 – Winners from stall 5
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

TQ VERDICT:

The Godolphin runner – CROSS COUNTER – has been running in some top G1 races of late so the drop into a Group Three should see him a lot more competitive. He was last seen running third in the Ascot Gold Cup – beaten 18 lengths – but there is nothing in the league of Stradivarius, the winner that day, running here. This 2m trip will be fine and most times he’s dropped outside of the top level he’s gone very close. His main danger can come from the consistent Nayef Road, who was one place ahead of Cross Counter in the Gold Cup. But, I just feel, that last run would have brought Cross Counter on more while it was Nayef Road’s second outing since racing returned. Godolphin also run Moonlight Spirit, but is rated 8lb inferior to Cross Counter so has some ground to make up. Red Verdon and Dashing Willoughby were both good winners last time out and can go well too, while if running I expect better from SPANISH MOON (e/w) and could be interesting now stepping up in trip and rates the e/w play in the race.

 

3:00 - Coral Challenge (Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 1m ITV

17/18 – Aged 6 or younger
16/18 – Carried 8-8 or more
16/18 – Previous winners over 1m (or further)
15/18 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
14/18 – Didn’t win their previous race
12/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Had run at Sandown before
10/18 – Aged 4 years-old
8/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/18 – Ran at either York (2) or Ascot (5) last time out
5/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Andrew Balding
11 of the last 14 winners came from stall 8 or lower

TQ VERDICT: Dark Vision will be popular here after holding off Montatham in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot last month. But a 6lb rise in the ratings makes life harder here and is overlooked. Mutasaamy was a very easy winner at Kempton last time out and deserves to take his chance in this better race, but the pick is the other Hamdam Al Maktoum runner – MOTAKHAYYEL. This 4 year-old was a cracking winner of the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Ascot and even though a 7lb rise makes life harder this looks an improving miler from the Richard Hannon yard. Of the rest, the Mark Johnston yard could have a good hand if the likes of Streak Lightning, Cognac and Overwrite run, while Ryan Moore catches the eye booked to ride Qaysar for Richard Hannon. But the other pick is the Andrew Balding runner – ZWAYYAN (e/w). This 7 year-old ran three solid races in defeat last season in Aug and Sept, while the yard have done well in this race in the past too. SDS rides and in this better class handicap gets in here with a light weight, plus is a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past so the 296-day break isn’t too much of a concern.

3:35 - Coral-Eclipse (Group 1) (British Champions Series) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m2f ITV

18/18 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
14/18 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
14/18 – Won by a previous Group One winner
14/18 – Placed favourites
13/18 – Placed in their last race
12/18 – Raced between 2 and 3 times that season
11/18 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out (three won there)
9/18 – Favourites that won
5/18 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
5/18 – Raced in the Epsom Derby that season
4/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/18 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of last 8)
5 of the last 13 winners won last time out
2 of the last 11 Derby winners of that season went onto win the race
The last 6 year-old to win the race was in 1886
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 9/2

12 of out the last 15 winners had run in the previous 30 days
11 out of the last 15 winners were Group 1 winners
14 of the last 15 winners came from the first four in the betting
13 out of the last 15 winners had won over 1m 2f or further

 

Other Eclipse Stakes Trainer Facts

Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2011, 2008, 2005, 2002 & 2000
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2007, 2001, 1997, 1994, 1993 & 2017
Godolphin-owned horses have won the race in 2004, 1998, 1996, 1995 & 2016
Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 8 runnings

TQ VERDICT: This has been a good race for Godolphin over the years – winning the race five times – and in Ghaiyyath they look to have another big chance. This 5 year-old was a top winner of the Coronation Cup – which was run at Newmarket this season – and having just as good form over this shorter 1m2f trip then he can be expected to make a bold bid from the front. Japan is another leading contender from the Aidan O’Brien yard that have won this race five times in the past. But this 4 year-old flopped at Royal Ascot last time out in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes and based on that needs to bounce back so I’d rather see it on the track again before wading in. However, it’s hard to look past the classy mare – ENABLE – here, who landed this race last season and will be looking to become the first back-to-back winner since Halling (1995 and 96). She was last seen running second in the Arc back in October, but the very soft ground that day wouldn’t have been ideal. She took this first time out last season so the 273 day break isn’t too much of a worry. I think it won’t be plain sailing for her and the Godolphin horse will make it a real test, but we know Enable stays further than this 1m2f trip, so this could play into her hands and I’ll stick with the current champ.

 

Haydock Horse Racing Tips and Trends

 

2.05 – bet365 Handicap Cl2 (3yo) 1m6f ITV

Trainer William Haggas has a 30% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer John Gosden has a 24% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Alan King has a 24% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Martin Harley has a 26% record riding 3 year-olds at the track

TQ VERDICT: No past runnings to go on but we’ve some fair trainer stats to take in. John Gosden has a 24% record with his 3 year-olds, so his Grand Bazaar, Indigo Lake and To Nathaniel are worth noting in the betting. The Alan King team have a 24% record at the track with their 3 year-olds and run course winner Duke Of Condicote here. The Mark Johnston pair of Subjective and Bondi Sands have shown a good level of form to certainly enter the mix too. Arthurian Fable was a close fifth in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot and off only 4 lb higher mark has to enter the mix. However, it’s the William Haggas team that have a 30% record with their 3 year-olds at the track so their FAVORITE MOON gets the call. This horse was a second to Indigo Lake at Doncaster a few weeks ago but has a 3lb weight pull this time and Cieran Fallon rides this time and can claim 3lbs as well – so he’s 6lbs better off. We can also expect that run to have brought him on after 6 months off. Of the rest, I’ll also be having the Alan King DUKE OF CONDICOTE (e/w) on side. This course winner was second to Grand Bazaar at Windsor but looks the sort to improve over this longer trip. He also lost a shoe the last day at Windsor so would surely have got closer without that happening.

 

2.40 - bet365 Lancashire Oaks (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m4f ITV

15/18 – Had won at least at Listed class before
15/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/18 – Priced 13/2 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/18 – Placed favourites
12/18 – Had won between 1-3 times before
11/18 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
9/18 – Won last time out
9/18 – Had won over 1m4f before
7/18 – Trained by John Gosden
5/18 – Had raced at Haydock before
4/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Raced at Ascot last time out
2/18 – Trained by David Elsworth
2/18 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
The last 7 runnings have been won by a 4 year-old

TQ VERDICT:  A good race in recent years for the Gosden yard but they are giving the others a chance this year as they’ve no runners. The Ed Vaughan runner Dame Malliot did well last season and won a Group Two over in France. She’s the joint top-rated in the field and has run well fresh in the past to suggest the long lay-off isn’t a concern. Spirit Of Appin is another to look at after some solid runs last term, but with three of the seven runners, trainer Ralph Beckett looks to hold a strong hand here. Hereby, who has won her last four steps up in grade but looks a useful filly and would not be shocked to see her go well. Antonia De Vega was a nice winner of a Listed prize at Pontefract last month and should also run close, but their proven CD winner MANUELA DE VEGA is the selection. She is the other joint top-rated runner in the field and returned last month with a great win in the Group Three Pinnacle Stakes here. She beat the Gosden runner – Fanny Logan – into second that day and that form took a huge boost at Royal Ascot with that horse winning the Hardwicke Stakes with ease. I think Hereby can give the pick most to think about in a race that could easily be dominated by all the Beckett entries.

 

3.15 - bet365 Old Newton Cup Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

 

16/18 – Had won a race over 1m4f before
14/18 – Aged 5 or younger
14/18 – Officially rated between 89 and 97
13/18 – Won no more than 5 times before
13/18 – Carried 9-1 or less
12/18 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
12/18 – Had won at least 3 times before
11/18 – Favourites placed in the top 4
11/18 – Aged 4 years-old
10/18 – Irish or USA bred
10/18 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/18 – Raced within the last 7 days
7/18 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the betting
7/18 – Placed horses (top three) from stall 4
6/18 – Had won a race at Haydock before
5/18 – Won last time out
4/18 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/18 – Trained by Clive Cox
2/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 12/1

TQ VERDICT:  19 runners here but some fair trends to note. With 14 of the last 18 winners aged 5 or younger, then this is a negative for the likes of Scarlet Dragon, Frankuus, Anythingtoday, Euchen Glen, Hochfeld, Star Of The East & Glencadam Glory, who are all 6+ year-olds. 13 of the last 18 carried 9-1 or less in weight, while 12 of the last 18 came from stalls 13 or lower. Taking all that into account the Mark Johnston runner THE TRADER (e/w) ticks a lot of the main trends. This 4 year-old has still 1 and only 9-0 to carry. He was a nice winner at HQ last month on his return to the track and a 6lb rise for that looks fair as he won by just under 3 lengths. Jockey PJ McDonald rides too and he’s got a great record on the horse 1-2-3-1! Of the rest, the Stoute runner – Laafy – is sure to attract attention and we can expect the Balding runner – Ranch Hand – to have improved for it’s run last month (6th) at Royal Ascot. But the other pick is LE DON DE VIE (e/w), from the Hughie Morrison team. This 4 year-old ran a cracker to be fourth in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot last time and despite having 5 ½ lengths to find with the winner of that race – Scarlet Dragon – a combination of that being his first run back and a 7lb swing in the weights suggests there will be less between them here. Course winner, Babbo’s Boy, Deja and Dal Horrisgle are three others that could easily go well in a very competitive handicap.

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