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7th July 2020

Live ITV Racing Free Tips and Trends: Friday 5th June 2020

With the UK horse racing set to return to normal we’ve some bumper ITV Racing days ahead – starting with seven LIVE races from Newmarket and Lingfield with rescheduled races that include the Coronation Cup and the Lingfield Oaks and Derby Trials.

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Friday, June 5th, ITV4

Newmarket Horse Racing Tips and Trends

1.50 Betway Handicap 6f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Tony Carroll has a 25% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David O’Meara is just 2 from 43 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

TQ VERDICT: The once useful Magical Memory would be a big player if anywhere near it’s best, but returns from a 761-day break and fitness and old ability would have to be taken on trust. On a plus, Frankie rides and he’s a proven CD winner. Flavius Titus and Dazzling Dan are the other proven CD winners in the field, while trainers Tony Carroll and David O’Meara have decent records with their older horses at the track so their runners – Recon Mission and SUMMERGHAND (e/w) are interesting too. Of the pair, the last-named is back down to his last winning mark (100) and is a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past so the 99-day break isn’t too much of a worry. Open Wide and Gulliver are others that can go well, but the other main pick is SWINDLER. This 4 year-old is lightly-raced so could have more improvement to come and ended off last season with a top handicap win at Ascot over this trip. A 6lb rise for that win looks fair, while he will love the quick ground.


2.25 Abernant Stakes (Group 3) 6f ITV4

13/13 – Won over 6f before
12/13 – Aged 4 or older
11/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
10/13 – Had run at Newmarket before
10/13 – Won at least 4 times before
9/13 – Rated between 106 and 114
9/13 – Ran 5 months or more ago
9/13 – Favourites placed in the top three
8/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/13 – Aged between 4 or 5 years-old
7/13 – Irish bred
4/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
3/13 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/13 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/13 – Won by the Hills stable
0/13 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
Brando won the race in 2018 and 2017, plus third in 2019

TQ VERDICT: BRANDO is not getting any younger at 8 years-old, but he’s gone well in this race in recent years and it doesn’t look the best of renewals. He won the prize in 2018 and 2017, plus was third 12 months ago. Off a rating of 116, he’s the top-rated in the field and has 7lbs in-hand on his nearest rivals – Oxted and last year’s winner – Keystroke. Brando is also a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past, so the 230-day break is not a worry, while is a horse that clearly likes this track and this time of year. CD winner Mr Lupton and Emaraaty Ana are others to consider should the pick have an off day.

 

3.00 Paradise Stakes (Listed) 1m ITV4

10/10 – Aged 6 or younger
10/10 – Won over at least 7f before
10/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Returned 11/2 or shorter
9/10 – Placed favourites
9/10 – Had run at the track before
8/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/10 – Unplaced last time out
7/10 – Drawn 5 or lower
3/10 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/10 – Trained by John Gosden
2/10 – Ridden by William Buick
0/10 – Winning favourirtes
Zaaki won this race in 2019
Century Dream won this race in 2020

*Note: Normally run at Ascot (May)

TQ VERDICT: The Simon and Ed Crisford yard have hit the ground running after the break and they run the 2018 winner of this race – CENTURY DREAM (e/w) here. This 6 year-old ticks the top three main trends and although he’s not won since 2018 the horse is back here having had a wind operation and that could be significant to see a return to form. We’ve also seen 7 of the last 10 winners drawn 5 or lower, so draw 3 looks a nice starting berth for this horse – but it is worth pointing out this race is normally run at Ascot so the draw stat has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Jockey William Buick has a good record in the race – winning it in 2013 and 2018 – so his mount Mythical Magic is another to note. Frankie and Gosden team-up with Lord Tennyson so is sure to be popular, but the ratings suggests the 113-rated SANGARIUS might be hard to beat. Ryan Moore rides this 4 year-old for trainer Sir Michael Stoute, who won this race 12 months ago with Zaaki. Sangarius was last seen winning the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot last season but with just 5 career runs can be expected to have improved a lot since. The drop back to 1m is a slight concern, but having won over 1m2f in the past I expect Moore to make full just of his proven stamina.


3.35 Coronation Cup (Group 1) 1m4f ITV4

18/18 – Had previously won a Group 1 or 2 race
17/18 – Had won over 1m4f before
17/18 – Aged 6 or younger
16/18 – Finished in the top three last time out
15/18 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
13/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/18 – Ran at either Chester, York, Newmarket or the Curragh last time out
12/18 – Favourites placed
11/18 – Horses from stall 3 that were placed (four won)
8/18 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 & 2017)
8/18 – Winning favourites
7/18 – Won their last race
6/18 – Had run at Epsom before
3/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2009, 2011 & 2017)
1/18 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 10/3

TQ VERDICT: Normally run at Epsom, so the trends have to be taken on trust a tad. It’s a cracking renewal though with last year’s winner – Defoe – the 2019 Epsom Derby hero – Anthony Van Dyck – the prolific Cup horse – Stradivarius – plus the top-rated Godolphin runner – Ghaiyyath – in attendance. It would be a shock if the winner isn’t coming from one of that four. Anthony Van Dyck has a bit to prove as he’s not been able to follow-up that Derby win from 5 runs since. Ghaiyyath is the one to beat based on the ratings, but might not be much value in the betting. This Godolphin horse is a very smart middle-distance performer, who is also a course winner here, returned back in February to win a G3 in Dubai very easily. Stradivarius will have its supporters too with Frankie riding, but this drop back to 1m4f might not be in his favour – especially on what’s likely to be quick ground. He might just get tapped for toe at a crucial stage. If that’s not the case and he can keep tabs with them early on, then his proven stamina will be a big plus in the closing stages. So, the call is for last year’s winner – DEFOE - to follow-up. This 6 year-old is also a CD winner here at HQ and he might be fitter than most having only run 3 months ago in Dubai. With 9 wins from his 20 starts, plus 5 top-two finishes, then he’s got a cracking strike-rate (70%) of hitting the top two.

 

Lingfield Horse Racing Tips and Trends


2.05
 East Grinstead Handicap 7f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer John Gosden has a 33% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Varian has a 27% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer William Haggas has a 23% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Robert Havlin has a 21% record riding 3 year-olds at the track

TQ VERDICT: An open-looking race, but with trainer John Gosden (33%) and jockey Robert Havlin (21%) having good records with their 3 year-olds at the track, then their VERBOTEN is the call. This Godolphin runner won on debut back in July but was probably not suited by the step up to a mile and the AW surface at Newcastle last time out. The drop back to 7f will suit. Of the rest, the Mark Johnston yard have returned with their horses in fantastic order so their HUBOOR (e/w) is the other to get a mention here. This 3 year-old has won two of her four starts and rounded-off last season with a solid handicap win at HQ last September. He’s up a big-looking 12lbs for that, but looks the sort to have more to come. Corvair, Surf Dancer and Tomfre are others to consider in a very competitive affair.

 

2.40 Oaks Trial Fillies’ Stakes (Listed) 1m4f ITV4

15/16 – Had won no more than once before
14/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Had no more than 3 career runs
13/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/16 – Came from stall 5 or higher
10/16 – Went onto run in the Epsom Oaks (no winners, two seconds)
8/16 – Had only won over a mile or shorter in the past
8/16 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
8/16 – Having first run of the season
8/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Raced at either Newbury (3) or Newmarket (3) last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Winning distance exactly 6 lengths
4/16 – Winners from stall 5
4/16 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/16 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/16 – Trained by William Haggas
3/16 – Trained by John Gosden
2/16 – Irish-trained winners

TQ VERDICT: This is another race the John Gosden team have done well in recently – winning 2 of the last three renewals – and they look to hold another very strong hand. Anastarsia runs for them and can’t be ruled out, but the jockey bookings suggest their other entry – MISS YODA – is their more fancied of the pair with Robert Havlin riding. This 3 year-old filly holds an Epsom Oaks entry and her pedigree (Sea The Stars) indicates we’ll see more on the track now she’s upped in trip. She’s the clear top-rated in the field and wasn’t disgraced last time out at HQ when a fair runner-up in the G3 Zetland Stakes. This longer trip will hopefully see her settle better and can be expected to have improved a lot in the 8 months off since. Of the rest, the Godolphin team run Lake Lucerne, while trainer Ralph Beckett has often targeted this race in the past so his HEART REEF can give the pick most to think about.

 

3.15 Derby Trial Stakes (Listed) 1m4f ITV4

17/17 – Had won no more than 3 times
14/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (1 winner, Anthony Van Dyck, 2019)
13/17 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Finished 4th or better last time out
12/17 – Favourites placed
11/17 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
8/17 – Drawn in stall 1 or 2
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/17 – Ran at Newbury last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
High Rise (1998) and Anthony Van Dyck (2019) were the last winners to go onto win the Epsom Derby

TQ VERDICT: Last season this race produced the Epsom Derby winner – but since 1998 – that’s still only happened twice. It looks a nice renewal, with many chances. The Mark Johnston yard have hit the ground running since the return of racing and they often do well with their raiders south to Lingfield – they run Dark Heart and King’s Caper and both look to be fair each-way options is all 8 runners stand their ground. Berkshire Rocco, Sound Of Cannons and English King have also shown a very good level of form to suggest they will be popular here too, but the call is KING CARNEY, to give trainer Charlie Fellowes one of his biggest wins at a trainer. This 3 year-old improved bundles at the end of last season to win twice at Nottingham and Pontefract. The last of those wins was in a Listed contest so this step up to a G3 looks the obvious progression and the way he kept on over that 1m trip, plus breeding (Australia), suggests this step up to 1m4f is within range. He holds an Epsom Derby entry too.

 

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