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24th November 2020

Live ITV Racing Free Tips and Trends: Sunday 19th July 2020

The LIVE ITV horse racing continues this Sunday with the cameras heading to York and Newbury. At York the Group Three Summer Fillies’ Stakes (3:05) is their feature, while at Newbury we’ve three races that include the lucrative Weatherbys Super Sprint (2:50). As always we've got all the key trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races - use these to help find the best profiles of past winners.

York Horse Racing Trends

 

1:55 - William Hill King Charles II Stakes (Listed) Cl1 (3yo) 7f ITV4

 

16/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting 15/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4 14/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out 14/17 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting 13/17 – Winners from stall 4 or lower 13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting 12/17 – Won only once before 11/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks 11/17 – Raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before 10/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out 7/17 – Winning favourites 3/17 – Won last time out 2/17 – Trained by the Hills stable 2/17 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor 2/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 6 winners) 2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute The last 10 winners came from stalls 6 or lower The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

Note: Normally run at Newmarket

 

TQ VERDICT: Ryan Moore stands out being booked to ride the William Haggas runner – Surf Dancer – but recent runs suggest he’d need to improve on what we’ve seen of late. If running, the Godolphin entries – Man Of Promise and Boccaccio – will be interesting after good wins last time out. But the form pick here is the Andrew Balding runner – SYMBOLIZE – who is rated 105 and ran well in a better race than this last time out when third in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. This drop into Listed company will make life easier and he should also be a lot sharper this time with that last run coming off around 11 months off.

 

2:30 - William Hill Extra Places Every Day Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4

 

No past runnings Trainer William Haggas has a 19% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track Trainer Kevin Ryan is only 3 from 99 (3%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track Trainer Paul Midgley is only 3 from 85 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track Trainer Mick Appleby is only 2 from 57 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track Jockey Graham Lee is only 3 from 65 (5%) riding 4+ year-olds at the track Jockey Tom Eaves is only 2 from 69 (3%) riding 4+ year-olds at the track

 

TQ VERDICT: The Paul Midgely yard have their horses in good order at the moment so anything they run should be respected – at this stage they’ve got Orvar, Line Of Reason and Tanasoq entered. But it’s worth noting they are only 3 from 85 at the track with their 4+ year-olds. Recent winners Makanah and Camacho Chief are others that can go well, while A Momentofmadness, who was 4 ½ length behind Camacho Chief last time, is starting to look well-handicapped off a mark of 93, considering he has been has high as 104 just over a year ago. But the call here is APLOMB. The William Haggas yard have a cracking 19% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track and Ryan Moore is a top jockey booking. He’s run well in two competitive handicaps at Ascot (Silver Wokingham and Betfred Handicap) and has been dropped a further pound here.

 

3:05 - William Hill Summer Fillies' Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV4

 

10/10 – Carried 8-10 or more in weight 10/10 – Won over 6f in the past 10/10 – Had run in the last 6 weeks 9/10 – Won last time out 9/10 – Aged 5 or younger 8/10 – Won between 2-5 times 8/10 – Drawn between stalls 6-11 (inc) 7/10 – Unplaced favourites 6/10 – Had run at the track before 3/10 – Ran at Ayr last time out 3/10  - Ran at Haydock last time out 2/10 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan 1/10 – Winning favourites The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1 Royal Intervention won this race in 2019

 

TQ VERDICT: A very decent renewal of this and it might be worth siding with the winner of the race 12 months ago – ROYAL INTERVENTION (e/w). This Ed Walker runner has clearly had this race as a target for some time and that prove CD form will be a bit plus. She did well after taking this race last year to win a G2 in Germany and a recent run at Haydock would have got her spot-on for this – Richard Kingscote rides. Breathtaking Look is the top-rated in the field and should be more at home in this grade after running down the field in the G1 Diamond Jubilee at Ascot last time. Jovial will have it’s supporters too with Ryan Moore riding for Sir Michael Stoute and this filly was a solid runner-up at Haydock (Listed) last time over 7f -she just got a bit tired in the closing stages that day so the drop back to 6f is a huge plus having won three times over this trip. Miss Celestial and Shades Of Blue are others to consider, but the other pick is LIVING IN THE PAST (e/w). This is another CD winner in the field after winning the G2 Lowther Stakes here last August. She hasn’t won since but has been running at the top level – the drop back in grade will help and can be expected to be well-tuned up for this on her return to the track.

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends

 

2.15 – bet365 Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4

 

No previous runnings Trainer William Haggas has a 40% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track Trainer Clive Cox is 0-from-32 with his 4+ year-olds at the track Trainer Tony Carroll is only 1 from 29 with his 4+ year-olds at the track Trainer Charlies Hills is only 3 from 60 (5%) with his 3 year-olds at the track

 

TQ VERDICT: Several interesting runners here, including Well Done Fox, Lexington Dash, Highland Dress and Watan, who cases can be made for them all. However, with a cracking 40% strike-rate at the track with his 4+ year-olds then trainer William Haggas has to be respected. He runs the Dark Angel colt – NAHAARR – who we last saw running third at Ascot in the Silver Wokingham. He’s only a pound higher for that effort and should be spot-on for this now with two runs last month. Trip, ground and track all look fine and leading jockey Tom Marquand has been booked to ride.

 

2:50 - Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV4

 

15/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks 13/16 – Had won over 5f before 12/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less 12/16 – Won 1-2 times before 11/16 – Favourites placed in the top 4 9/16 – Won by a Feb or March foal 8/16 – Irish bred winners 8/16 – Won last time out 8/16 – Won by a filly 6/16 – Raced at Ascot last time out 5/16 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard 3/16 – Winners from stall 1 4/16 – Winning favourites Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2013, 2015 and 2017

 

TQ VERDICT: A big pot up for grabs here for these 2 year-olds. It’s a race the Richard Fahey yard always do well in so anything they run has to be noted. At the moment hes got no runners this year though. The Hannon yard are another that have done well in the race – winning 5 of the last 16. They’ve got several entries and all should be respected, but their HAPPY ROMANCE could be the answer. She was a good winner at Sandown two runs back and wasn’t disgraced when running a close fifth in the Queen Mary Stakes (G2) last time at Royal Ascot. That decent form and with the horse getting the fillies’ allowance here too then that’s a big plus – 50% of the last 16 runnings have been won by a filly. Others to note are Get It from the Clive Cox yard and Lullaby Moon from the Michael Bell team. But of the rest, a chance is also taken on the Kevin Ryan runner – TINOCHIO (e/w) – who was an easy winner at Hamilton last time out, while the yard boast a decent 2-from-7 strike-rate here at the track with their 2 year-olds.

 

3:25 - bet365 Steventon Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

 

11/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks 10/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old 10/15 – Placed favourites 10/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or  more 10/15 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting 9/15 – Had won over 1m2f or further before 9/15 – Had run at the track before 6/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting 6/15 – Had won a Group race before 5/15 – Winning favourites 2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute 2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore 2/15 – Won last time out 4/15 – Winners from stall 1 Godolphin have won 4 of the last 10 runnings

 

TQ VERDICT: This has been a good race for the ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin in recent years – winning 4 of the last 10 runnings. With that in mind their DREAM CASTLE (e/w) has to be worth an interest despite flopping last time out at Ascot. That was, however, his first run for 3 months and the softer ground went against him – his better form has been on a quicker surface. Earlier this season he was running in much better races than this in Dubai so the drop into Listed grade will suit and as long as the rain stays away should have a much better chance here. The consistent Pablo Escobar is another to consider, while course winner Extra Exclusive has run well at the track in the past to give him a chance. With a 40% record at the track with this 4+ year-olds then trainer William Haggas’ runner – Faylaq – will be popular too with Jim Crowley riding, plus it’s hard to ignore the 115-rated Fox Tal, who is the clear top-rated in the field. This Andrew Balding runner does need to bonce back from an average run in the Wolferton Stakes (Listed) at Royal Ascot last time, but with that coming off a 243-day break a case can be made for him improving for it.

 

4:00 - Marsh Cup Cl2 (3yo+) 2m½f ITV4

 

Just two previous runnings 2/2 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old 1/2 – Winning favourites Withhold (17/2) won the race in 2019, Roger Charlton Stratum (11/4 fav) won the race in 2018, Willie Mullins Trainer Ralph Beckett is only 1 from 21 with his 4+ year-olds at the track

 

TQ VERDICT: The Roger Charlton yard took this race 12 months and look to have another good chance of adding to that - this time with TRUE DESTINY. This 5 year-old gets in with a light weight (8-7) and ran a cracker on his return at Kempton recently (2nd). Can be expected to have improved for that run and stays this 2m trip well. He's run just 5 times on the turf but has been placed in the top three (2 wins) four times - Jason Watson rides. Others that have decent chances are Australis, who was a good second in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle last time out - but he's 0-from-6 on the turf so does have a bit to answer on the grass for me. Trainer Ralph Beckett is only 1 from 21 with his older horses at the track so his Moon King has this to overcome. The consistent Selino can go well too and I expect better from the Charlie Fellowes runner Carnwennan, who was 6th in the while Northumberland Plate. THEMAXWECAN (e/w) - looks to be running into form after two fair runs at Haydock and Ascot. He's the top-rated in the field so does have a bit of weight to carry, but should be better suited by the quicker ground this time.

 

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