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16th October 2021

Live ITV Racing Free Tips and Trends: Sunday 7th June 2020

The LIVE ITV Racing action is coming thick and fast at the moment with seven more races this Sunday.

We’ve the rescheduled 1,000 Guineas, from Newmarket, topping the bill, while the Brigadier Gerard, which is normally run at Sandown in May, has been moved up to Haydock.

As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered with key trends and stats – hopefully these will help whittle down the runners and point you in the direction of horses that fit the best past winning profiles.


Sunday, June 7, ITV

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends

1.50 Betfair Exchange Buckhounds Stakes (Listed) 1m4f ITV

10/10 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
10/10 – Drawn in stalls 5 or lower
10/10 – Won between 2-5 times before
9/10 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Officially rated 102+
8/10 – Favourites placed in the top 3
8/10  - Had won over at least 1m2f before
7/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Last ran over 7 months ago
6/10 – Winning favourites
5/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Drawn in stall 5
3/10 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/10 – Trained by John Gosden

Note: This race is normally staged at Ascot

TQ VERDICT: With the Mark Johnston runners in fine fettle since racing returned then their top-rated, COMMUNIQUE gets the call here. This 5 year-old has 6lbs in-hand on the official ratings and is also a proved CD winner here at the track. Ryan Moore is a top jockey booking too and having been highly-tried in top G1 races, this drop in class into Listed company will make life much easier. Of the rest, Frankie and Gosden team-up here with First In Line and will be popular too – the yard have won this race twice since 2012 - while the hat-trick-seeking Trueshan, so the Alan King camp is another to note, being another CD winner here too. Faylaq and Secret Advisor can do best of the others.

2.25 Betfair Exchange Bet In-Play Handicap 1m2f ITV

No previous runnings
Sir Michael Stoute has a 19% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Andrew Balding is only 3 from 43 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David Elsworth is 0 from 21 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Tom Marquand is only 1 from 32 riding 4+ year-olds at the track

TQ VERDICT: No previous runnings to go on, but still some key trainer stats to take in. The Sir Michael Stoute yard have a 19% record with their 4 year-olds at the track and their DAVYDENKO can hopefully back up those stats. This 4 year-old was a nice winner at Donny back in September and despite being up 7lbs for that win, she looks a progressive sort that could easily progress into Listed or Group company in time. The Andrew Balding yard are only 3 from 43 with their 4+ year-olds at the track so their Good Birthday has that stat to overcome, so the main dangers to the selection can come from Desert Icon and the Mark Johnston-trained WEST END CHARMER (e/w), who represents an in-form yard and caught the eye when winning well at Doncaster last June.

3.00 Betfair EBF Pretty Polly Fillies’ Stakes (Listed) 1m2f ITV

10/10 – Finished in the top three last time out
9/10 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Had between 1-3 runs before
9/10 – Won justg once before
8/10 – Drawn between stalls 1-6 (inc)
7/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of the last 6)
4/10 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (3 of the last 5)
2/10 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks

TQ VERDICT: This has not been a bad trial race for the Epsom Oaks in recent years – with both Talent (2013) and Taghrooda (2014) going onto land that Classic after taking this. The betting suggests the Sir Michael Stoute runner – Snow Shower – will have plenty of supporters after winning well on debut at Salisbury last September and she’s got an Oaks entry too. Trainer Ralph Beckett often does well with his middle-distance fillies too and his course winner – TREFOIL (e/w) should be noted in the market. She was a nice winner here on debut in October and should be a much wiser and stronger filly with another 7 months on her back. But it’s hard to get away from the good record of the John Gosden yard in this race – they’ve won 4 of the last 6. He’s got another strong-hand this year with three runners – Run Wild, Moonlight In Paris and TIEMPO VUELA. All three command respect, especially as top jockeys Ryan Moore (Moonlight In Paris) and Oisin Murphy (Run Wild) have been booked to ride. However, you feel Frankie would have had the pick of the three and with the pocket Italian having also ridden 3 of the last 5 winners in this race, then his mount – Tiempo Vuela, which means ‘Time Flies’ in Spanish, is the one to focus on. She was a nice winner on debut at Newcastle last October and looks to be held in high regard with an Epsom Oaks entry too. Breeding suggests the step up to 1m2f will suit and having won on the AW, the quicker ground on the turf here will be fine.

3.35 Qipco 1,000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) 1m ITV

16/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/18 – Had won between 2-3 times before
13/18 – Had won a Group race before
13/18 – Drawn between 2-13 (inc)
11/18 – Won their previous race
11/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
11/18 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
11/18 – Yet to win a race over a mile (or further)
10/18 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
9/18 – Returned a double-figure price
8/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
8/18 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
7/18 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
7/18 – Favourites unplaced
7/18 – Irish-trained winners
6/18 – Drawn in stalls 7 or 8
5/18 – Previous Group One winners
5/18 – Went onto win the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot
4/18 – Won by a US bred horse
4/18 – Won by the favourite
3/18 – French-trained winners
3/18 – Went onto finish fourth in the Epsom Oaks
3/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/18 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Kazzia 2002, Minding 2016)
Just one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
9 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 2-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 13/1

1,000 Guineas Facts

Owner Hamdam Al Maktoum has won the race 5 times (1990, 1991, 1995, 2000 & 2009)
Frankie Dettori has ridden the ridden the winner 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Ryan Moore has ridden the winner 3 times (2012, 2015, 2016)
Godolphin have won the race 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Aidan O’Brien has trained five winners, Virginia Waters (1995), Homecoming Queen (2012), Minding (2016), Winter (2017), Hermosa (2019)

TQ VERDICT: Having trained five winners in this fillies Classic, then trainer Aidan O’Brien always has to be feared. He’s got just the one entry this year – Love – but she looks to hold every chance on what she’s shown to date. Last seen running third to another of the main fancies – Quadrilateral – in the G1 Fillies’ Mile over this course and distance back in October. He’s got 1 ¾ lengths to find with that horse though so would have had to have found some improvement over the last 8 months. Millisle is another to consider, from the Jessie Harrington yard. This 3 year-old is yet to finish out of the first two from 5 runs, but the big question mark is the step up from 6f to 1m. Breeding might suggest it will be touch and go as to whether she gets the extra yardage. She also beat another runner here – RAFFLE PRIZE (e/w) – here in the Cheveley Park Stakes last September, but I feel this Mark Johnston runner might be able to overturn that form. The Johnston yard have started back from the break in cracking form so this 3 year-old is sure to be fully wound up for this. Yes, he’s another that needs to prove she will get this mile, with all recent runs at 6f. However, breeding suggests she’s got a leading chance of seeing out the longer trip, especially now she’ll be a much stronger horse with just over 8 months since her last outing. Others to consider are Cloak Of Spirits, plus Frankie and Gosden team-up with Shimmering. While the only Godolphin runner in the race is Summer Romance. Having said all this, it’s still hard to knock the form of QUADRILATERAL. This Frankel filly is still unbeaten (3-from-3) and is one of the few runners to have proven she stays this 1m trip. She’s also won here on the track over this distance and won’t mind the quicker ground. She can be expected to have improved again over the winter months and looks a very exciting prospect to further enhance the tall reputation her father – Frankel – already has.


Haydock Park Horse Racing Trends

2.05 Betway Pinnacle Stakes (Group 3) 1m 3 1/2f

17/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
15/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Rated 92 or higher
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Had won over 1m4f before
13/17 – Aged 4 years-old
12/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/17 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
6/17 – Had run at Haydock before
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/17 – Trained by John Gosden
2/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
10/10 – Came between stalls 3-9 (inc)
10/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-olds

TQ VERDICT: A tight-looking renewal here with all six runners having a squeak. It’s another race trainer John Gosden has done well in – winning it twice since 2014 – so his runner FANNY LOGAN will be popular. She’s the top-rated in the field but does have to give 3lbs away as she’s already a winner at this level. She wasn’t disgraced (4th) in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Fillies and Mares race last November, but this drop back in grade will make life easier – she’s the one to beat on that form. The consistent Manuela De Vega is another to note but does seem to find it hard to win – being placed more often. Vivionn and Sheilene can do best of the rest.

2.40 Betway Brigadier Gerard Stakes (Group 3) 1m2f

17/17 – Had won at least twice before
15/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
13/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
13/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had won a Group or Listed race before
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Had won between 2-4 times before
12/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/17 – Aged 4 years-old
12/17 – Rated 111 or higher
10/17 – Had won a Group Race before
10/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
8/17 – Drawn in stall 4 or lower
7/17 – Irish bred
6/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
6/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (6 of last 9)
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
2/17 – Raced at the Curragh last time out
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 5/1

TQ VERDICT: Rescheduled from Sandown – being one of the races we lost during lockdown. Therefore, the trends and stats have to be taken with a pinch of salt. Telecaster was a Derby fancy last season, but flopped in the big race so has a bit to prove at the moment – the drop back to 1m2f might suit better and he could be better for the break, but I’d like to see a return to form on the track first. I feel the Gosden runner – Lord North – can go well, while Bangkok and the top-rated Elarqam are others that will surely attract attention. The last-named is the clear top-rated in the field and runs for the in-form Mark Johnston team. He didn’t quite live up to G1 level last season but is a Listed and G2 winner so this drop back to a G3 will be easier for him – he’s one for the shortlist. However, it’s hard to get away from the good record in this race for the Sir Michael Stoute team – they’ve won 6 of the last 17! They bid to add to that record here with the 4 year-old SANGARIUS. We last saw this horse winning the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot in fine fashion, with another runner – King Ottokar – around 2 ½ lengths back in third. With only 5 career runs he’s lightly-raced and the Stoute camp are clearly taking their time with him. He’s got a bit to find based on the ratings and it won’t be easy giving 3lbs away to the others too, but he’s a horse that looks to have more in the locker and looks ready to kick on again this season. Danny Tudhope gets the ride.

3.15 Betway Spring Trophy Stakes (Listed) 7f

10/10 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
10/10 – Had won over 7f before
10/10 – Returned 6/1 or less
8/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/10 – Placed favourites
7/10 – Drawn between stalls 1-3
7/10 – Won 4 or 5 times in the past
7/10 – Rated between 109 and 113
7/10 – Had raced in the last 8 weeks
6/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Had raced at Haydock before
3/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 5)
2/10  - Trained by David O’Meara (2 of last 5)
Safe Voyage won the race in 2019
Tabarrak won the race in 2018
Oh This Is Us won the race in 2017

TQ VERDICT: Last year’s winner of this race – SAFE VOYAGE – will have its supporters again. This consistent 7 year-old has finished in the top three in 13 of his 23 races and is a horse that seems to love going fresh so the 232 day break is certainly not a worry. He won this by 1 ¼ lengths last season, while the added plus is his record here at Haydock – he loves it here. His record at the track reads a very impressive 1-1-1-1!! Of the rest, an interesting stat to take into the race is that 7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1,2 or 3, so horses Yafta (1), Space Blues (2) and Happy Power (3) must enter the mix too. Trainer Richard Hannon has won 2 of the last 3 runnings and sends out three – Urban Icon, Fox Champion and Yafta. Of those at bigger prices the Mark Johnston runner – CARDSHARP (e/w) – might be worth a small saver too. As mentioned, many times, the yard are in top order at the moment and he might be a tad fitter than most with his last run coming only 3 months ago.

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