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28th September 2020

Market Rasen TV Tips and Trends: Fri 10th July 2020

A big day over the jumps at Market Rasen this Friday as the ITV cameras head to the track to show two live races – the Summer Plate and the Summer Hurdle.

We’ve got both races covered with key trends and stats – use these to narrow down the fields and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Market Rasen TV Trends

Friday 10th July 2020

2.05 Betway Summer Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV4

15/18 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
14/18 – Had won over at least 2m1f over hurdles before
14/18 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
13/18 – Had won 2 or more times already over hurdles
11/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
6/18 – Had run at Market Rasen before
2/18 – Won by the Pipe stable
3/18 – Winning favourites
12 of the last 13 winners carried 11-5 or less
9 of the last 14 winners carried 11-0 or less
8 of the last 14 winners retuned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
Grapevine (25/1) won the race in 2019

Another competitive renewal of this decent Summer Hurdle. With 12 of the last 13 winners carrying 11-5 or less then this is bad news for the top three on the card – Caius Marcius, Fiesole and Fair Mountain, who all have more weight to lump round. 14 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old so of those left this is a plus for the likes of RED FORCE ONE, VALENTINO DANCER and NORDICAN BLEUE. All three are respected, but it might be worth taking a chance on the Dr Richard Newland runner – NORDICAN BLEUE (e/w). The yard actually won this race in 2015 too and have Sam Twiston-Davies booked to ride. With only 10-10 to carry this 5 year-old gets weight from all the others, plus the yard boast a cracking 31% strike-rate with their hurdlers here at Newton Abbot. Of the rest, the proven CD winner, Dino Velvet can go well for the Alan King yard, but the other one I’ll be playing is the Emma Lavelle runner – HIGHLY PRIZED. The yard have been in great form this week and at the time of writing have sent out 3 winners from their last 6 runners. They also have a decent 36% record with their hurdlers at the track and I’m not too fussed about the 5 month break as this horse has gone well in the past off a lay-off.

2.40 Betway Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m5 1/2f ITV4

17/18 – Had run within the last 3 months
16/18 – Had won over at least 2m3f (chase) before
16/18 – Aged 7 or older
13/18 – Had won 2 or more chases before
12/18 – Carried 10-13 or less
12/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/18 – Had run at Market Rasen before
11/18 – Won their previous race
7/18 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
5/18 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/18 – Ran at Stratford last time out
3/18 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/18 – Ran at Ffos Las last time out (2 of the last 9)
2/18 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
Trainer Jonjo O’Neill won the race in 2009 and 2014
10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
Casablanca Mix won the race in 2019

 

With 16 of the last 18 winners aged 7 or older, then only one horse falls down here – the 6 year-old Really Super. 17 of the last 18 had, however, ran in the last 3 months, but this trend has to be dismissed this year with the break in racing during April and May. A previous run at the track is a plus, while 12 of the last 18 winners carried 10-13 or less – that weight stat is a plus for More Buck’s, Really Super, Pink Eyed Pedro, Soloman Grey, Art Of Payroll, Copper West, Lough Derg Spirit and Field Exhibition. 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7-9 years-old too, so this could be a negative for the likes of More Buck’s (10), Art Of Payroll (11), Field Exhibition (10) & Knockgraffon (10). So, the two I’ll take a chance on are COPPER WEST (e/w) and SOLOMON GREY (e/w). The former comes from the Tom George yard that boast a cracking 32% record with their chasers here. This 9 year-old is also a proven CD winner so we know the track suits and has been placed in the top three in 8 of his 13 runs over fences. Solomon Grey is a hurdles winner at the track and comes from the Dan Skelton yard that often do well at this time of year with their horses over the sticks. The yard have a 26% record with their chasers at the track and with only 10-9 to carry has got in here with a light weight.

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