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23rd September 2021

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends & Tips: Friday 11th Oct 2019

More LIVE ITV action on Friday 12th October for day one of the two-day Dubai Future Champions Festival at Newmarket. Plenty to get stuck into with the Group One Bet365 Fillies’ Mile the clear feature race, but with the Cornwallis Stakes, Oh So Sharp Stakes and Challenge Stakes supporting then there is a lot to look forward to.

As always we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle - use these to find the best profiles of past winners.


Newmarket Horse Racing Trends

1.50 – Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV

14/16 – Had won over 5f previously
13/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
12/16 – Rated 98 or more
12/16 – Ran within the last 30 days
12/16 – Winning distance – 1 ½ or less
12/16 – Won at least twice or more before
11/16 – Foaled in March or later
11/16 – Had raced 5 or more times
10/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
9/16 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
7/16 – Filly winners
6/16 – Raced at Ayr last time out
6/16 – Won their last race
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
2 of the last 5 winners trained by Jonathan Portman
2 of the last 10 winners trained by Kevin Ryan
2 of the last 10 winners ridden by Jamie Spencer
3 of the last 4 winners came from stalls 11 or higher
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: Trainer Aidan O’Brien took this race last year and also boasts a 23% record with his juveniles at the track, so his Pistoletto has to be respected. However, he ran below-par last time out at also has a bit to find on these terms with a few others. Dream Shot was a good second in the G2 Flying Childers at Doncaster last time out and dropped in grade can go well. But the ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin could hold the key here, with three runners – Ickworth, Lazuli and Platinum Star. The former comes over from Ireland and has shown a decent level of form to suggest a good run, while Platinum Star was a nice winner at Ripon last time in a Listed race and was also runner-up in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot back in June. He can go well. But I’m not sure the drop back to 5f is ideal and that might suit the other Godolphin runner – LAZULI – better. The Appleby yard have a 23 % record with their juveniles at the track too, while this speedy Dubawi colt is 2-from-2 after wins at HQ and Donny. He just held on over 6f last time after showing a lot of speed so the drop to 5f looks a good move and William Buick, who has ridden him in his two previous races, remains in the saddle.

2.25 – The Godolphin Lifetime Care Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

14/15 – Had between 1-2 wins already
14/15 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
14/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/15 – Had between 1-3 career runs
12/15 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
11/15 – Won last time out
11/15 – Foaled in March or later
11/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/15 – Had won over 7f or further before
9/15 – Unplaced favourites
8/15 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
7/15 – Irish bred
4/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/15 – Trained by Roger Varian (last 2 winners)
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: Several promising sorts here, with last-time out winners – Rose Of Kildare, Belle Anglaise, Vividly and VALERIA MESSALINA (e/w) all worthy of a second glance in the betting. The last-named in particular is of interest as the Jessie Harrington yard are 1-from-1 at the track with their 2 year-olds and this one won well on debut at Naas. They clearly feel she’s up to the rise in grade to bring her over and that should be noted. Godolphin’s Final Song and the Hannon runner Separate can’t be ruled out either, but it’s hard to get away from the Roger Varian-trained STYLISTIQUE here. Okay his filly is yet to win a race, but she’s gone close a few time and in better races. This 2 year-old was a close second in the G2 Rockfel Stakes last time out at HQ and with this being a drop in grade and the fact the Varian yard have also won the last two runnings of this race give her added confidence.

3.00 – The Godolphin Stud & Stable Awards Challenge Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

16/16 – Won a Listed (4) or Group (10) race previously
16/16 – Won over 7f previously
16/16 – Raced 3 or more times that season
15/16 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
13/16 – Won 3 or more times previously
13/16 – Winners from stall 10 or lower
12/16 – Raced at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
12/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
12/16 – Officially rated 113 or higher
10/16 – Priced 7/1 or lower
9/16 – Placed in their last race
9/16 – Favourites placed
7/16 – Won at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
6/16 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Goodwood (2) last time out
5/16 – Won their previous race
5/16 - Favourites that won
2/16 – Trained by Henry Candy
1/16 – Filly/Mare winners
Limato has won the last two runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

TQ VERDICT: Just the five runners here, but with four of them proven course winners then a case can be made for most of them. Mustashry is the top-rated in the field but does have to give weight away to the others as a result of being a G1 winner this season. He took the Lockinge back in May but has failed to back that up since. The drop in grade will help and he rates a big danger. Shine So Bright and Oh This Is Us have both have good seasons too and can go okay, but it’s hard to get away from the fact the Henry Candy runner – LIMATO – has won the last two renewals of this race. He’s not getting any younger at 7 years-old but showed he retains his ability with a G3 win in the Criterion Stakes at HQ back in June. Ryan Moore is an eye-catching jockey booking too and he’s 2-from-2 here on the Rowley Mile. The soft ground would be a slight worry, but he has won on good-to-soft, albeit over 6f in the past. Hopefully the ground can dry out a bit before the race and if it does this would increase his chance.

3.35 – Bet365 Fillies´ Mile (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

15/15 - Finished in the first three last time out
15/15 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
14/15- Yet to win a Group 1
13/15 – Finished in the first two last time out
13/15 – Foaled in Feb or later
13/15 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
11/15 – Had won between 2-3 times before
11/15 – Favourites that finished in the top three
10/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Won last time out
10/15 – Had won a Group race before
9/15 - Foaled in Feb or March
7/15 - Raced at Doncaster last time out
7/15 – Irish bred
6/15 - Winning favourites (or joint)
6/15 – Irish-trained winners
4/15 - Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/15 – US bred
3/15 – Won by trainer John Gosden
3/15 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4 of the last 5 winners have been Irish-trained
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

TQ VERDICT: I’ve mentioned the good record (1-from-1) at the track with their juveniles for the Jessie Harrington yard, so their unbeaten Cayenne Pepper looks a big player. She’s won all three of her starts to date and put in her best run to date with a nice win at the Curragh last time out when stepped up to this 1m trip. The Aidan O’Brien yard have a fine record in this race – winning 3 of the last 5 runnings so their Love, who has won three of her last four races, is another huge player. Her recent G1 win at the Curragh in the Moyglare Stud Stakes was impressive and breeding suggests the step up to a mile will suit. Powerful Breeze is another unbeaten runner that could be anything, but, for me, I was very taken by the recent win of QUADRILATERAL at Newbury, so she gets the nod. Yes, this is a big step up in class but the fact this Frankel filly pulled hard that last day but still won by 9 lengths was a good sign she’s very useful. The step up from 7f to a mile will be fine so she’s taken to continue her upward curve. Of those at bigger prices, Frankie and John Gosden team-up with ANASTARSIA (e/w), who was a good winner at Newcastle last time. Another that’s making a bit jump up in grade but the Gosden team obviously know the time of day at this sort of level so clearly feel she’s above average so might be worth a small e/w saver too.

4.10 – Bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap Cl2 (3yo) 1m4f ITV

5 previous runnings
4/5 – Had won at least twice before
4/5 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
4/5 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
3/5 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
3/5 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
2/5 – Priced 8/1 in the betting
2/5 – Ran at Haydock last time out
0/5 – winning favourites
Trainer Ralph Becket won the race last season
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 14/1

TQ VERDICT: 19 runners head to post so a tricky race to unravel and only 5 previous runnings to go on regarding the trends. With 4 of the last 5 winners carrying 9-0 or less and coming from a double-figure draw then this is a fair stat that is building up and one that knocks out the popular First In Line for the John Gosden and Frankie combination. One horse that ticks both trends though is the Roger Varian runner – APPARATE (e/w). This 3 year-old is also a course winner and should be spot on for this after a gutsy win at Ascot last time off a break. He’s up just 4lbs for that and looks the sort to still have some improvement to come. Others to note regarding the draw and weight stat are Skymax, Country, Trueshan, Cardano, Rhythmic Intent, Cape Cavalli, Dreamweaver and Natty Night. The Ryan Moore-ridden Devevo and Oisin Murphy mount, Sinjaari, are others that punters are sure to latch onto, but might not be much value. While it’s also hard to ignore the Sir Mark Prescott runner – BATTLE OF PARADISE, who gets in here with just 8-0 to carry. He’s actually running from a pound out of the handicap but with just three career runs should have more to come and the Prescott yard are masters at plotting with improving 3 year-olds in these big-field handicaps.



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