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16th January 2022

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends & Tips (Weds 18th – Thurs 19th April 2018)

The LIVE ITV horse racing action is coming thick-and-fast at the moment as this midweek the cameras head to flat racing’s HQ – Newmarket – to take in four races on Wednesday (18th April) and Thursday (19th April).

Several early season Classic pointers to take in over the week with the Nell Gwyn and Craven Stakes - both key trials ahead of the 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas run at the track next month.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races.



Wednesday 18th April 2018

1.50 – 6f (Row) Weatherbys General Stud Book Online Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+)

Just two previous running
Trainer Charles Hills won the 2017 running
Trainer Kevin Ryan won the 2016 running
The last 2 winners were aged 4 years-old
No winning favourite
Trainer Kevin Ryan is 5 from 23 (22%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer David Barron is 0 from 16 with his older horses at the track
Trainer Roger Varian is 1 from 26 (4%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Mick Appleby is 2 from 37 (5%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Roger Varian is 2 from 40 (5%) with his older horses at the track
Jockey Pat Cosgrave has a 26% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 19% (+42) record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Oisin Murphy is just 2 from 40 riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey James Doyle is just 3 from 48 riding 4+ year-olds at the track

TQ VERDICT: Just two previous runnings here but we’ve got the winning yards from both of those with the Charles Hills team, who won this 12 months ago, having Shanghai Glory, while the Kevin Ryan camp, who took this prize in 2016, have MONT KIARA (e/w) entered. The Kevin Ryan stable boast an impressive 22% strike-rate with their older horses at the track, plus this 5 year-old ran well to be fourth in this race 12 months ago. He’s 3lbs lower this time around and will be fitter than most having run a respectable fourth (of 9) at Chelmsford earlier this month – he could go well at a nice e/w price. SHANGHAI GLORY – for last year’s winning yard – can’t be ruled out though as at the time of writing the Hills yard are in flying form. They’ve sent out 4 winners from their last 6 so clearly have their string in cracking order at present. Last season this 5 year-old went well first time out too, when a close second at Salisbury after a 7 month break so the 173 absence isn’t a worry. Off a mark of 99 he’s well-handicapped considering he ran in some hot handicaps off 101+ last season, while, finally, William Buick, who boasts an impressive 19% record riding 4+ year-olds here, gets the leg-up. Of the rest, Shared Equity is another that is sure to be popular, while it might pay to know the three proven course and distance winners in the field are Ekhtiyaar, Eastern Impact and Danielsflyer.


2.25 – 7f (Row) bet365 European Free Handicap (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo)

11/11 – Had won between 1-2 times before
11/11 – Rated between 101 and 108
11/11 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Raced at Kempton, Newmarket, Ascot or Newbury last time out
10/11 – Last ran 5 ½ or longer months ago
10/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/11 – Didn’t win last time out
9/11 – Finished 2nd or 3rd last time out
8/11 – Drawn in stalls 2-6 (inc)
7/11 – Yet to win over 7f
5/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Won by the Hills stable
4/11 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/2

TQ VERDICT: A tight handicap here and with Rufus King the only course and distance winner in the field then this Mark Johnston-trained 3 year-old must enter the shake-up. He’ll be fitter than most after a good second at Lingfield last month and the Johnston team have already been amongst the winners this week. Another yard that are going well at present is the Tom Dascombe team. They are 4 from 11 at the time of writing so their Finniston Farm is certainly interesting. This 3 year-old won well on debut at Haydock and certainly wasn’t disgraced when last seen in the Group Two Superlative Stakes on the July course here last season. He was just 2 ¼ lengths off the classy Gustav Klimt that day and now into a handicap will find this company a whole lot easier – with only two career runs there should be more to come. NEBO (e/w) is another interesting contender and another from the in-form Charles Hills yard. Frankie rides too, so he’s bound to attract support based on that alone. He’s also another that was running in better company than this last season and also won well on debut last season so we know he goes well fresh. His form with a bit of cut is also decent (1-2-2-1) but with a dry few days predicted then he should be fine no matter what the ground – has also run well on quicker surfaces. Of the rest, the Charlie Appleby yard boasts an excellent 27% record with their 3 year-olds at the track so their Folk Tale is another to consider with William Buick riding. The unbeaten Snazzy Jazzy has also done nothing wrong in winning his three races to date, including a 29 runner Sales race at the Curragh last time out (Sept). Hey Jonesy certainly can’t be ruled out either – this 3 year-old was last seen running a close fourth here in the Group One Middle Park Stakes so will find this much easier. All his runs have been over 6f so this step up to 7f is a slight unknown but breeding suggests he’ll be fine.


3.00 – 1m1f (Row) bet365 Earl Of Sefton Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)

11/11 – Had won over a least a mile in the past
11/11 – Favourites placed in the top three
9/11 – Won at least 3 times in the past
9/11 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
9/11 – Had won over 1m1f or further in the past
8/11 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/11 – Had raced at the track before (5 won)
8/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Had won a Group/Listed race before
6/11 – Drawn in stalls 8 (3) or 10 (3)
5/11 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/11 – Won last time out
3/11 – Trained by John Gosden
2/11 – Trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam
2/11 – Ridden by William Buick
2/11 – Winning favourites
0/11 – Winners from stall 1
Richard Hannon trained the winner 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1

TQ VERDICT: We saw the Richard Hannon yard take this race 12 months ago so they will be trying to follow-up here – this time with Euginio. However, this will be harder than the handicap victory he gained last September at Doncaster and he’s already been beaten 6 lengths by another of today’s runners – Frankuus – last year in a Group Three. Off a mark of 111 he’s rated to go well but his form just tailed-off at the backend of last season and last term he only managed one win from 8 races which is another concern. If the ground came up soft then What About Carlo would appeal but with a few dry days expected I’m not sure we’ll get that. The only course winner in the field is Master The World and he heads here fit from a decent Winter AW campaign – we saw him last running a close second in the Easter Classic at Lingfield. However, he does have to give 4lbs to all the others which won’t be easy considering he’s rated 107 and 5 of the others are all on a higher mark. Robin Of Navan and Forest Ranger are consistent sorts at this level but don’t really win that often so although I think they will run well they might have to settle for minor honors. That leaves us with DEAUVILLE. This 5 year-old is the clear highest-rated in the field on 119 and that’s 5lbs clear of Robin Of Navan on 114. Aidan O’Brien brings him over from Ireland and with Ryan Moore riding too then we can expect a big support. He’s normally seen in Group One company, including a close third in the Arlington Million last season in the States. His form in Group Three company reads well – 1-2-1-2, so I think he’s the safest call in what looks a fascinating renewal.


3.35 - 7f (Row) Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo)

14/15 – Were having their first run of the season
12/15 – Had won between 1-2 times previously
12/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/15 – Had only won over 6f or 7f before
10/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/15 – Had won a Listed or Group race in the past
8/15 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley)
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/15 – Had won over 7f before
7/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (won it 7 times in all)
4/15 – Trained by John Gosden
2/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/15 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/15 – Ridden by Jimmy Fortune
1/15 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas
3 of the last 7 winners came from stall 11
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1

TQ VERDICT: With Frankie Dettori having won this race 7 times, including the last four runnings, then his mount Juliet Foxtrot is a good place to start. This 3 year-old has won one of her three starts but has a bit to find based on her fifth in a Group Three in Ireland last time. Yes, the soft ground would not have been ideal that day and she’ll be a stronger horse with another winter on her back, plus the Hills camp could not be in better form. The 108-rated Threading is the highest rated in the field so sets the standard and having won the Group Two Lowther Stakes last season is a horse that’s already won beyond this level. Se was last seen in the Cheveley Park Stakes but finished 7th that day - beaten 5 ¾ lengths off the winner. Therefore, a bit to prove but this drop in class makes her a real player and the Mark Johnston yard are sure to have her fully wound-up for this. The yard also run Nyaleti, who has liked to race up with the pace in her races but didn’t fire at Newcastle last time out. The drop back from a mile to 7f will, however, be in her favour. The Richard Hannon yard have a fair record in the race – winning it in 2012 and 2015 – so his Billesdon Brook – can’t be ruled out. She improved loads last season to win three times and is another proven winner at this Group Three level. Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien team-up with Dramatically and despite having a bit to find on these terms can’t be overlooked coming from these powerful connections. Godolphin’s Solioquy has done little wrong in her two races to date and won well at Ascot last time. This is a big step up in grade but connections clearly feel she’s up to the task. Altyn Orda is another that should go well for the Roger Varian yard. This 3 year-old won the Oh So Sharp Stakes at this level last October, which was also over this course and distance, plus she is yet to finish out of the top two from three races over this 7f trip. However, the call here is for the John Gosden team to continue their fine record in the race. They’ve won the last two renewals and look to have another decent chance with NAWASSI (e/w). This 3 year-old was an easy 2 ¾ length winner here over this course and distance back in November so we know she handles the dip and the track. Yes, that only came in a Novice Stakes race but the Gosden camp won this 12 months ago with a similar sort that was stepping up so they clearly feel she’s up the task. Jim Crowley continues in the saddle and with a 1,000 Guineas entry too then that’s another indication connections think she may well turn out to be fairly useful.


Thursday 19th April 2018

1.50 – 6f (Row) bet365.com Handicap (Class 2) (3yo)

11/11 – Had won over 6f before
10/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
9/11 – Came from stall 8 or lower
9/11 – Rated between 86-93 (inc)
9/11 – Had between 1-4 previous runs
8/11 – Won after 5 ½ months or more off
8/11 – Had won just once before
8/11 – Carried between 8-13 or less
6/11 – Won from stalls 2, 6 or 8 (2 each)
6/11 – Winning favourites
6/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/11 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/11 – Ridden by Silvestre de Sousa
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: With Ryan Moore booked to ride the Sylvester Kirk-trained Music Society then this 3 year-old is sure to come in for some decent interest. He’s raced three times – winning once – and is yet to be out of the first two. However, both defeats have been over this 6f trip, while with 9 of the last 11 winners coming from stalls 8 or lower then we might be able to cling to this trend as a negative as he’s out of stall 9. He’s still clearly one for the shortlist but with Moore riding might not be any value. The Tom Dascombe camp are in good form during this early part of the flat turf season so their Dragons Tail, from stall 3, could go well. He returns from a 7 month break but is sure to be fully wound-up for this but with just 1 win from 8 starts his win-to-run ratio is not great. The only proven course and distance winner in the field is the David O’Meara-trained Consequences, after he was a good winner here last November. It is worth noting both his career wins have been on good-to-firm ground though so he might want conditions to dry out a bit more. Trainer Richard Fahey normally has this horses on the front foot at this time of the year so his Maybride can’t be ruled out but the call here is CAPTAIN JAMESON (e/w). From the John Quinn yard, that boast an impressive 50% strike-rate (2 from 4) with their 3 year-olds at the track, this 3 year-old rounded-off last season with a nice win at Doncaster over this 6f trip. He’s yet to finish out of the top three from 5 career runs – winning twice – and has shown an ability to handle a bit of cut, although with a few dries days expected then underfoot conditions could dry out quickly. Yes, he probably needs to improve a bit on what we’ve seen – especially in this higher grade – but with another Winter on his back he should also be a much stronger horse now, so with the yard’s top record at the track with this age group he looks worth sticking with.


2.25 – 6f (Row) bet365 Wood Ditton Maiden Stakes (Class 3) (3yo)

9/9 – Having their debut runs
8/9 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
7/9 – Favourites placed
7/9 – Winning distance less than a length
5/9 – Winning favourites
4/9 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
2/9 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/9 – Trained by William Haggas
0/9 – Winners from stalls 1-4 (inc)
The winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/2

TQ VERDICT: Not a single bit of previous form to go on from this field of 19 debutants, so it could be ‘get your pin out time’! Therefore, all we’ve really got to go on is trainer’s reputation, past winning stables of the race and current yard form. With that in mind the William Haggas camp have won this race twice since 2012 so their Prabeni is one for the shortlist. Breeding suggests he’ll want a lot further than this 6f trip in time but connections clearly feel he’s got enough pace to start him off at this distance. We’ve not seen a winner of the race from stalls 1-4 (inc) in the last 9 years so Mister Ambassador, the Ryan Moore-ridden Dragon Moon, Boxatricks and Decoration of War will have this stat to overcome. Looking at the trainer stats for 3 year-olds at the course then John Gosden (21%), Martyn Meade (24%), Mick Channon (27%) and Charlie Appleby (27%) top the lists. Gosden has Dive For Gold, Mister Ambassador and the Frankie Dettori-ridden Surya is sure to be well supported with the pocket Italian riding. Martyn Meade runs Monoxide, while Mick Channon has Zain City. However, with the boys in blue of Godolphin having won this race 4 times in the last 9 runnings then the safe call looks to be to stick with their pair KARAGINSKY and MILITARY BAND. The last-named is also trained by Saeed Bin Suroor, who has won this prize in 2014 and 2015. A tough race, with a lot of trust and guesswork having to be applied but if you are having a bet the it could pay to go blue.


3.00 – 6f (Row) Connaught Access Flooring Abernant Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)

11/11 – Won over 6f before
10/11 – Aged 4 or older
10/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
8/11 – Rated between 106 and 114
8/11 – Ran 5 months or more ago
8/11 – Had run at Newmarket before
8/11 – Won at least 4 times before
8/11 – Favourites placed in the top three
8/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/11 – Aged between 4 or 5 years-old
7/11 – Irish bred
4/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/11 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
3/11 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/11 – Won by the Hills stable
0/11 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
Brando won the race 12 months ago
Magical Memory won the race in 2016
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1

TQ VERDICT: With several past winners of this race lining-up again here as Magical Memory, who won this in 2016, tries again and with Frankie riding then he’s sure to be well-supported. Plus, we’ve also got the current champ running as last year’s hero – BRANDO – bids to follow-up and I think he’s got a cracking chance of doing so. This 6 year-old took this on his return run 12 months ago so his 180 day break is not a worry. He went onto run well in several top Group One’s so this drop in class – in a race we know he likes – also looks the obvious place to start him back. He’s certainly one for the shortlist, while his trainer – Kevin Ryan – has won three of the last 4 runnings of this race. A recent wind-op over the Winter could also eke out a bit more improvement so he’s taken to go well here and gets the nod. Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore team-up with Spirit Of Valor and this 115-rated 4 year-old ticks a lot of boxes too. He’s a Group Two winner from last season and coming from this powerful yard can be expected to be fully wound-up for this reappearance run. He’s closely-matched with Le Brivido after that pair finished a close 1st and 2nd in the Jersey Stakes last year at Royal Ascot. If there is a negative though it might be he’s ability to handle the track as he was a well-beaten 8th (of 10) here last season – but that was in the hotly-contested 2,000 Guineas. Perfect Pastime and Projection are others to note, while the Haggas-trained One Master has done little wrong in winning her last two and being the only filly in the race gets a handy 3lbs from the others. The highest-rated in the field is the French raider – Le Brivido – so he clearly rates a big danger to last year’s winner. This 4 year-old has still only had four career runs so we can expect more to come and we know he stays a bit further after winning the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot last season over 7f. He’s also been a short-head second in a Group One in France and the fact connections are making the long trip over suggests they are not just coming for a day trip out. The track is an unknown but there is no reason why it won’t suit but the fact he’s been off the track since last June would be a concern. Therefore, I’m happy to stick with the proven performer from last year – Brando – and also side with the Kevin Ryan camp who love to target this prize.


3.35 - 1m (Row) bet365 Craven Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo)

15/15 – Having their first run of the season
13/15 – Rated 110 or higher
12/15 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or more
11/15 – Yet to win over a mile
11/15 – Came from the top three in the betting
11/15 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Had won over 7f before
10/15 – Had won no more than twice before
10/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
9/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
8/15 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before (3 won)
6/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Finished unplaced last time out
5/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon (including last 4 of last 6 runnings)
4/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
1/15 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas
8 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 9 renewals is 5/1

TQ VERDICT: Just the 7 runners for the 2018 renewal of this Group Three and really based on what we’ve seen on the track so far this should be going to ROARING LION. This John Gosden-trained 3 year-old is rated 118, and the clear highest in the field. He’s won two of his three starts – one of which was the Royal Lodge here over this course and distance. He rounded-off last season with a neck second in the Group One Racing Post Trophy - on that running sets the clear standard. He’s around 6/1 in the betting for next month’s 2,000 Guineas as he looks to become the first horse since Haafhd to take this race before going onto glory in the opening Classic of the season. Of the seven runners the only three look feasible dangers. First one is Godolphin’s Masar, but he was well beaten at odds-on in Dubai last time and would need to bounce back from that. The unbeaten Glorious Journey is another danger after winning both his starts – including a Group Three in France last time out. He’s clearly held in high regard and this is backed-up with some fancy entries later on in the year. The Ryan Moore-ridden White Mocha is the final one to mention. This Hugo Palmer-trained 3 year-old is another with some top-level entries but being he is 50/1 for the 2,000 Guineas and with the selection 6/1 then it’s clear at this stage he needs to find a bit more improvement from what we’ve seen to date. Based on the main oppo, I’m happy to stick with Roaring Lion here.

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