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16th January 2022

Newmarket July Meeting Trends: DAY ONE (Thurs 11th July 2019)

The three-day 2019 Newmarket July Meeting gets started on Thursday (11th July) and with LIVE ITV races each day we’ve got everything covered from a trends and stats angle.

On day one the Group Two July Stakes and Princess of Wales's Stakes are the key contests - did you know that a 4 year-old has won 9 of the last 12 Princess Of Wales's Stakes?

As always, we are on hand to take you through each of the LIVE races, highlighting the main trends – use these to narrow down the runners and pin-point the best profiles of past winners of the race.

Newmarket July Meeting - Day One,
Thursday 11th July 2019

1.50 - Bahrain Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f ITV

17/17 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
15/17 – Failed to win last time out
15/17 – Never run on the Newmarket July Course before
12/17 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
10/17 – Favourites placed in the top three
10/17 – Won at 3/1 or shorter
10/17 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
10/17 – Finished fifth or worse in their previous race
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Trained by John Gosden (inc 4 of last 8 runnings)
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/17 – Ridden by William Buick
2/17 – Winners that came from stall 1
Wells Farhh Go (7/1) won the race in 2018

TQ VERDICT: The John Gosden yard have a good record in this race, as does a certain Frankie Dettori – they team-up here with WALDSTERN (e/w), who might be worth rising at a nice price. Yes, he’s a bit to find on the ratings but is lightly-raced (4 runs) and could easily improve for the step up in trip, plus is also a course winner. The soft ground was also against him last time at Chester, while that also came off a 245 day break so can be expected to have come on for it. The Michael Bell runner – Eagles By Day is the top-rated in the field and his fourth behind Japan at Ascot last time certainly makes him the one to beat. The longer trip looks a plus too, so it’s hard to crab his chance. O’Brien, who also trains Japan, should know a bit on where he stands with his Barbadoshe was a decent runner-up in the Queen’s Vase over 1m6f last time so this trip won’t be an issue – he looks sure to go well too. Spanish Moon looks to be another that could have more to give, while the first-time blinkers are an interesting edition to the William Haggas runner – Boerhan. But the other that catches the eye is the Johnston runner – NAYEF ROAD (e/w). This 3 year-old is another course winner that seemed to relish the step up in trip last time out. He was third at Ascot in the Queen’s Vase, so is closely-matched with Barbados, but the quicker ground here and return to HQ will help his cause.

2.25 - Arqana July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV

16/17 – Placed in their last run
16/17 – Had won over 5 or 6f previously
14/17 – Had 2 or more previous career starts
13/17 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
10/17 – Won their last race
10/17 – Won at 9/2 or shorter
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their last race
6/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon
6/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
1/17 – Winners that came from stall 1
Frankie Dettori has ridden 5 winners in the race
Advertise (11/10) won the race in 2018

TQ VERDICT: Guildsman has shown a very good level of form to command a lot of resect here – he was a fine third in the Coventry Stakes – only beaten ¾ of a length – and prior to that was a 6-length winner at Goodwood. The Aidan O’Brien yard boasts a 27% record with their juveniles at the track so their runners – Royal Lytham and King Neptunecan’t be ruled out. Godolphin’s PLATINUM STAR (e/w) was an excellent second in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot last time too and back on a quicker surface and up in trip (has won over this 6f) rates a big player too. However, the one that should take all the beating here is the Frankie-ridden VISINARI. This Dark Angel colt went into many a notebook after dotting-up on debut here over this course and distance last month. The form has since been franked with the fifth winning well since, plus the pick has some fancy entries later in the season to suggest connections are already eying-up bigger and better prizes.

3.00 – Bet365 Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

13/13 – Didn’t win last time out
13/13 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
13/13 – Had won no more than 3 times before
12/13 – Had 3 or 4 previous runs that season
11/13 – Had won over 6f before
10/13 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
10/13 – Carried 8-12 or less
10/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/13 – Came from a double-figure stall
9/13 – Unplaced favourites
8/13 – Finished unplaced last time out
4/13 – Trained by Andrew Balding
4/13 – Ridden by David Probert
0/13 – Winning favourites
Foxtrot Lady (8/1) won the race in 2018

TQ VERDICT: 20 runners heading to post here, so a tough race to unravel. However, with 10 of the last 13 winners carrying 8-12 or less in this handicap then of the 20 runners – the top six on the card have this as a negative – Blown By Wind, Street Parade, Barbill, Dazzling Dan, Jack’s Point and Rathbone. Having raced in the last 4 weeks and having been out on the track 3-4 times already this season are other positive trends to look for. Taking those stats into account the William Haggas runner – APLOMB (e/w) – makes plenty of appeal. This 3 year-old will be ridden by the in-form Tom Marquand and heads here off the back of a good win at Nottingham. He’s up 5lbs for that success, which looks fair and in this better race gets in with just 8-7 in weight. Of the rest, Princess Power is the only proven CD winner in the field so warrants respect, but I’ll also be having a small interest in KINKS (e/w) here. Drawn 11, this Channon-trained runner will have options from that berth and the way he stayed on over 5f last time (3rd) at Windsor suggests this step up to 6f will be a big plus. Andrea Atzeni is the icing on the cake in the saddle. Of the rest, Woven, Pass The Vino, Philipine Cobra, Top Breeze, Gabrial The Wire and the hat-trick-seeking Moss Gill are others that can’t be discounted either.

3.35 - Princess Of Wales´s Arqana Racing Club Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f ITV

15/17 – Aged 4 or older (4 year-olds have won 9 of last 12)
15/17 – Previously won over at least 1m4f
14/17 – Had 2 or more runs that season
13/17 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
12/17 – Won at 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
11/17 – Unplaced in their previous race
10/17 – Favourites that were placed
8/17 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their previous race
5/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won it 9 times in total)
4/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/17 – Won by trainer Mark Johnston
Best Solution (6/1) won the race in 2018

TQ VERDICT: The 2018 Epsom Derby hero Masar will be all the rage here after running a fair fifth on his return last month in the Hardwicke Stakes. That was a solid effort as it came off a 385-day break and he was only beaten just over 4 lengths. However, the third that day – MIRAGE DANCERalso ran well in that race and I think with Ryan Moore riding he can uphold that form. The Stoute yard have a good record in this race (9 wins) and with that only being his second run of the season, there should also be more to come from this 5 year-old and the quicker ground will suit. Of the rest, the Mark Johnston camp have also done well in this race so their Communique, who is a course winner, and their Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes winner, Baghdad, will be trying to grab another success for the yard – both certainly have the form to have a say too. Desert Encounter, who needs to bounce back from some average runs, and Dashing Willoughby, who being a 3 year-old gets weight from all the others, will be trying to follow-up his Queen’s Vase, Royal Ascot win.



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