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4th December 2020

Newmarket July Meeting Trends: Fri 10th July 2020

The three-day 2020 Newmarket July Meeting continues on Friday (10th July) and with LIVE ITV races each day we’ve got everything covered from a trends and stats angle.

As we move into the second day (Gentleman's Day) the Group Two Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Cherry Hinton) and the Group One Falmouth Stakes take centre stage - did you know 14 of the last 18 Falmouth Stakes winners came from stalls 5 or lower?

As always, we are on hand to take you through each of the LIVE races, highlighting the main trends – use these to narrow down the runners and pin-point the best profiles of past winners of the race.

Enjoy!


Newmarket July Meeting - Day Two,
Friday 10th July 2020

1.50 – Price Promise at bet365 Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-88) 7f ITV4

No previous runnings
Jockey Ben Curtis is 4-from-5 (80%) riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Joe Fanning has a 31% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Andrea Azteni has a 30% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey PJ McDonald has a 30% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track

TQ VERDICT: No past runnings to go on but some pretty decent jockey stats. Ben Curtis has a stonking 80% record when riding 4+ year-olds at the track so his ride PRESIDENTAL (e/w) might be worth having onside. This 6 year-old won well at Doncaster two runs back and certainly wasn’t disgraced when a close 6th in the Silver Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot last month – beaten just over 4 lengths. The return to 7f will suit and he’s acted with some cut in the ground should the track get any more rain. The other jockeys to note at the track are Andrea Atzeni (30%), who rides the Stuart Williams runner – Human Nature. While Joe Fanning (31%) and PJ McDonald (30%) are others to note – they ride Hammer Gun and Herculean. But the other main pick is going to be the only proven CD winner in the field – FIGHTING TEMERAIRE (e/w). This 7 year-old returned in great order when winning at Lingfield last month and could still be fairly well treated on old form. This 7f suits best and despite his age seems to be finding a new lease of life, having won twice from his last three starts.

 

2.25 - Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored by Bet365) (Group 2) Cl1 6f ITV4

16/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
16/16 – Had raced at least twice before
15/16 – Had won between 1-2 times before
14/16 – Foaled in Feb (6) or March (6)
14/16 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
13/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
12/16 – Won by a UK-based yard
11/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
11/16 – Had won over 6f before
8/16 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
7/16 – Winning favourites
8/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Trained by the Hannon team
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (inc 2 of last 4)
3/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 wins in total)
2/16 – Drawn in stall 1
Raffle Prize (9/2) won the race in 2019

TQ VERDICT: The Aidan O’Brien yard have a good record in this race – winning 2 of the last 4 - so their More Beautiful has to be considered. However, she will need to bounce back from a poor run in the Queen Mary Stakes (9th) last time out. The step up to 6f could certainly help on that score though. Frankie has a good record in the race so his mount – Hala Hala Hala – who won well up at Thirsk on debut. She Do and Ghaaliya are two others that could progress after nice debut wins. However, the main two here look to be Time Scale and DANDALLA. The former, who was a very easy Listed winner at Newmarket (Rowley) last month and looks a smart filly and should go close, but it was hard to not be taken by the 6 length romp of DANDALLA in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. That was her second win from as many runs and also handled a bit of cut in the ground last time should any more of the wet stuff drop.


3.00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV

Just two previous running
The Mark Johnston yard won this race in 2019
The Charlie Appleby yard won this race in 2018
King’s Advice (10/1) won this race in 2019
Trainer Mark Johnston has a 30% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Andrew Balding is 0-from-29 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Ben Curtis is 4-from-5 (80%) riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Joe Fanning has a 31% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey PJ McDonald has a 30% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track

TQ VERDICT: The Mark Johnston runner KING’S ADVICE won this race 12 months ago and I think he can go well again. Yes, he’s rated 5lbs higher this time but I feel the drop back to 1m6f is exactly what he needs after not seeing out the 2m last time at Newcastle in the Northumberland Plate. Prior to that run he’d run a solid second at Doncaster in a Listed race over this trip so show he still have a love for his racing. Johnston also runs Themawecan, but his other two runners – CAPE COAST and STAR OF THE EAST – are others that can go well for a yard that has a 30% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track. Frankie has been booked to ride Cape Coast, and this one should be a lot sharper for a recent second at Thirsk as it came off around 3 years off! Star of the East was also second last time but is also a proven CD winner at the track. If fit after a long time off, Sam Cooke has to enter the mix, while the hat-trick seeking Holy Kingdom has done well in the last few months, but is up another 4lbs in the ratings here in what also looks a much more competitive race than the ones he’s been running in. Shailene and the Godolphin trio of Dubai Future, Ghostwatch and Dubai Horizon are others that punters could latch onto.

 

3.35 - bet365 Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m2f ITV

11/13 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
11/13 – Had won between 1-2 times before
11/13 – Have never run at Newmarket (July) before
10/13 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Placed in the top 6 last time out
9/13 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
8/13 – Unplaced favourites
7/13 – Irish bred
6/13 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
6/13 – Trained by Mark Johnston (including 5 of last 7 runnings)
5/13 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Trained by Andrew Balding
0/13 – Winning favourites
Walkinthesand (9/1) won the race in 2019

TQ VERDICT: This has been another top race for the Mark Johnston yard in recent years so the safe call might be to just side with his three runners – IFFRAAZ, OVERWRITE and ZABEEL CHAMPION. The first-named has been gelded since his last run when down the field in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes, but could be interesting now stepping up in trip and has won on all grounds. Overwrite heads here in better form though after winning at Windsor last time out and Frankie Dettori riding will mean he’ll have his supporters – a 6lb rise for his last win doesn’t look too harsh. Then Zabeel Champion, who won over this trip last time out on the Rowley Mile, is only up 4lbs for that. Yes, a big step up in grade, but the horse gets in here with just 8-5 to carry as a result. Of the rest, it’s another well represented race for the Godolphin team with Global Storm and Al Maysan – both have the form to go well, while Enemy for John Gosden and Kipps, who has the services of Ryan Moore, are two others to consider. But – as mentioned - with the Johnston yard having a cracking record in this race I’m happy to split stakes across this trio of runners.

 

4.10 – Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV

18/18 – Won a Listed or better class race previously
17/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/18– Won over at least 1 mile previously
14/18 – Won from stall 5 or lower
14/18 – Had 2+ runs that season
13/18 – Won at 13/2 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Ran at Ascot in their last race
10/18 – Favourites placed
7/18 – Favourites  that won (1 joint)
7/18 – Previous Group One winners
6/18 – Had run on the Newmarket July course previously
5/18 – Won their last race
3/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 6)
2/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 4 runnings)
2/18 – French-trained winners
Veracious (6/1) won the race in 2019

TQ VERDICT: The John Gosden yard have a good hand here with Nazeef, who has won his last five. The last of those successes came in the G2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot and there is every chance there is more to come. However, he did take a hold that day and might need to settle better in this higher grade if he wants to see out the 1m trip – that would be a slight worry for me. He beat another of today’s runners – Agincourt – that day (head) so there shouldn’t be much between them again. One Master was last seen running 6th in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Ascot over 6f. He steps up to 1m here but the fact he’s tried this trip five times and is yet to win over it, would be a concern.  John Gosden also has the Godolphin runner – TEREBELLUM – with Frankie riding. She was only just touched-off in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes last time out (head) and on that form is very interesting. She’s won over 1m2f so that proven stamina will be a big plus and has also won in soft ground should more rain come. The O’Brien yard had the winner of the Queen Anne Stakes so might have a line on the pick with their Magic Wand, who looks to have a big chance too. He stayed on well to be fourth in the Coral-Eclipse last weekend and should benefit from the drop back to a mile. She won a G2 over this trip prior to that last run (4 ½ lengths), but hasn’t set the world alight on softer ground to date, so any rain might suggest she’s got something to prove. Of the others, Under The Stars has a bit to find on the ratings, while Billesdon Brook, who is a former 1,000 Guineas winner, has failed to really build on that G1 success in 2018.

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