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27th September 2020

Newmarket July Meeting Trends: Thurs 9th July 2020

The three-day 2020 Newmarket July Meeting gets started on Thursday (9th July) and with LIVE ITV races each day we’ve got everything covered from a trends and stats angle.

On day one the Group Two July Stakes and Prince of Wales's Stakes are the key contests - did you know that a 4 year-old has won 10 of the last 13 Prince Of Wales's Stakes?  

As always, we are on hand to take you through each of the LIVE races, highlighting the main trends – use these to narrow down the runners and pin-point the best profiles of past winners of the race.

Enjoy!

 

Newmarket July Meeting - Day One,

Thursday 9th July 2020

 

1.50 – Bahrain International Sir Henry Cecil Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 1m ITV4

6/7 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
6/7 – Won 2 or 3 times in the past
6/7 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
6/7 – Had won over 7f or 1m in the past
5/7 – Drawn in stalls 5 or lower
4/7 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Trained by Richard Hannon
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 9/1

Mystery Power and the Godolphin runner – Al Suhail – who is also the top-rated in the field command respect, while Ryan Moore riding the Charles Hills runner – Tilsit – also catches the eye. This one was a very easy winner (19l) at Newcastle last time out and even though this is a huge step up in grade could be an above average sort. John Gosden’s Magical Morning has won it’s last two in good fashion too and probably hasn’t set the world alight and now into Listed grade would also need more. So that leaves me with LORD CAMPARI. This Roger Varian runner was a top winner at Newbury last month in what looked a fair race and the runner-up (Tsar) has since dotted up at Yarmouth to frank the form. That win for Lord Campari also came with a bit of cut in the ground so you’d think any more rain would be fine. Of the rest, the 104-rated ROPEY GUEST (e/w), often runs well and ran a blinder to be a close fourth in the G3 Jersey Stakes at Ascot last time – he could outrun his odds.

2.25 - Bahrain Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f ITV4

18/18 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
16/18 – Failed to win last time out
16/18 – Never run on the Newmarket July Course before
12/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
11/18 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
10/18 – Favourites placed in the top three
10/18 – Won at 3/1 or shorter
10/18 – Finished fifth or worse in their previous race
5/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Trained by John Gosden (inc 4 of last 9 runnings)
3/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/18 – Ridden by William Buick
2/17 – Winners that came from stall 1
Spanish Mission (13/2) won the race in 2019

Several of these are stepping up in trip, so stamina has to be taken on trust – we’ve two course winners in the field – West End Girl and Al Dabaran – but no distance winners. MISS YODA (e/w) won well on her return at Lingfield, but was only 6th in the Epsom Oaks next time – not all horses like or handle Epsom, so there are reasons to forgive that last effort. On a plus, the Gosden team have a top record in this race – winning 4 of the last 9 – so if you can forgive that last run Miss Yoda might be worth giving another chance too. She runs as if the longer trip will suit as always finishes her races off well and being a filly also gets a handy 3lbs from the others. Aidan O’Brien sends over Dawn Rising, who was an easy 12 length winner at Limerick last time out. The runner-up won a race this week over in Ireland to give the form a boost and with Ryan Moore riding he looks a big player with the O’Brien horses hitting top form. Of the rest, Al Aasy will be popular after a nice win here on the Rowley Mile last time out, while Al Dabaran ran well to be third in the Queen’s Vase at Ascot over 1m6f and looks the sort to hit the frame at worse. Damage Control and Sound Of Cannons could be each-way shouts in the race, but WEST END GIRL (e/w) is the one of the bigger prices for me. She gets the fillies allowance too and looks the sort to improve for this longer trip. Yes, she flopped at Ascot last time out in the Ribblesdale, but that was a hot race and prior to that was only 1 ¼ lengths off Miss Yoda at Lingfield – a repeat of that run and with some improvement over this longer trip would make her interesting.

 

3.00 – Tattersalls July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV

17/18 – Had won over 5 or 6f previously
16/18 – Placed in their last run
15/18 – Had 2 or more previous career starts
14/18 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
10/18 – Won their last race
10/18 – Won at 9/2 or shorter
9/18 – Unplaced favourites
9/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their last race
6/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
6/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
1/18 – Winners that came from stall 1
Frankie Dettori has ridden 5 winners in the race
Royal Lytham (11/1) won the race in 2019

Qaader was a good second in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out and on that running is a big player here – he runs for the Mark Johnston yard that have a cracking 26% record with their 2 year-olds at the track. Tactical stayed on well over 5f to land the Windsor Castle Stakes at Ascot and runs for the Queen. He looks the sort to improve for the step up in trip and can go well too. Yazaman is another with good form already in the book, but a chance is taken on the Aidan O’Brien runner – SWISS ACE. This 2 Kingman colt was an easy winner on debut at Tipperary over 5f and the fact they are sending him over speaks volumes. He’s bred to get this slightly longer trip, but clearly has a lot of speed too. Ryan Moore rides and the yard also won this race 12 months ago with a similar sort.

3.35 – Bet365 Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

14/14 – Had won no more than 3 times before
13/14 – Didn’t win last time out
13/14 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
12/14 – Had 3 or 4 previous runs that season
12/14 – Had won over 6f before
11/14 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
11/14 – Carried 8-12 or less
11/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/14 – Came from a double-figure stall
10/14 – Unplaced favourites
8/14 – Finished unplaced last time out
4/14 – Trained by Andrew Balding
4/14 – Ridden by David Probert
0/14 – Winning favourites
Pass The Vino (25/1) won the race in 2019

20 runners head to post here so the trends can hopefully help. With 11 of the last 14 runners carrying 8-12 or less in weight then horses 1 to 8 fall down on this trend. Horses that DIDN’T win last time out are 13 from 14, so recent winners like Lexington Dash, who will be popular, plus Sunset Breeze, Meraas and Volatile Analyst are others that have this stat to overcome. 10 of the last 14 winners also came from a double-figure draw. With these mentioned stats taken into account, it’s hard to get away from the William Haggas runner – DANCIN IN THESTREET. This 3 year-old was a very good third to the useful Art Power at Royal Ascot last time out and gets in here with just 8-4 to carry. Draw 19 looks ideal and William Buick has been booked to ride and she has won over 6f before too. The winner gave the form a big boost in Ireland recently too, when landing a G3 race and with the pick also not getting a clear run at Ascot last time you feel she’d have got even closer to Art Power that day. If running to that level should be hard to beat. Of the rest, the Andrew Balding team seem to do well in this race, so their SPANISH ANGEL (e/w) is the other pick. This 3 year-old also gets in with a low weight and draw 17 looks perfect. He was a winner at Windsor last month and then had excuses last time (3rd) when hanging left in the closing stages. I’m hoping the Balding team have ironed out that issue and, if so, might be worth giving another chance to.

4.10 - Princess Of Wales´s Tattersalls Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f ITV

16/18 – Aged 4 or older (4 year-olds have won 10 of last 13)
16/18 – Previously won over at least 1m4f
15/18 – Had 2 or more runs that season
14/18 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
12/18 – Won at 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
12/18 – Unplaced in their previous race
10/18 – Favourites that were placed
9/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their previous race
5/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won it 9 times in total)
4/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/18 – Won by trainer Mark Johnston
Communique (11/1) won the race in 2019

This has been a good race for the Mark Johnston yard, and I think they can go well again this year. They run COMMUNIQUE again this year – the horse that won this race for them 12 months ago. He’s a horse that seems to save his best for this track and should be spot-on for this after two runs back since racing returned. He’s form here at Newmarket overall (both tracks) is very good 1-1-1-1-5 and is actually 2-from-2 here on the July course! His main challenges can come from Enbihaar, who was las seen running third in a decent G1 in France last October and prior to that won the Lillie Langtry and Park Hill Stakes at Goodwood and Doncaster – she’s a useful mare. Old Persian is the top-rated horse in the field so has to command respect too and often runs at higher level than this G2 so should find things a bit easier. Antonia De Vega and Dame Malliot are other proven course winners here, while the Balding runner – Alounaklooks to be coming to the boil are solid efforts at Newmarket and in the Hardwicke Stakes (2nd) at Ascot last time out.

 

 

 

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