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30th October 2020

Newmarket Racing Trends and Tips (Fri 9th Oct 2020)

More LIVE ITV action on Friday 9th October 2020 for day one of the two-day Dubai Future Champions Festival at Newmarket.

Plenty to get stuck into with the Group One Bet365 Fillies’ Mile the clear feature race, but with the Cornwallis Stakes, Oh So Sharp Stakes and Challenge Stakes supporting then there is a lot to look forward to.

As always, we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle, plus our verdicts on each race.

 

1.50 – Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV3

15/17 – Had won over 5f previously
13/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
13/17 – Rated 98 or more
13/17 – Winning distance – 1 ½ or less
13/17 – Won at least twice or more before
12/17 – Ran within the last 30 days
12/17 – Had raced 5 or more times
11/17 – Foaled in March or later
10/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
10/17 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
8/17 – Filly winners
6/17 – Raced at Ayr last time out
6/17 – Won their last race
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
3/17 – Ridden by Richard Kingscote
2 of the last 6 winners trained by Jonathan Portman
2 of the last 11 winners trained by Kevin Ryan
2 of the last 11 winners ridden by Jamie Spencer
2 of the last 3 winners came from stall 3
3 of the last 5 winners came from stalls 11 or higher
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

TQ VERDICT: With 2 of the last 3 winners coming from stall 3, then it might be worth taking a chance on the William Haggas-trained ROYAL ADDRESS (e/w) here. Okay, this 2 year-old has a bit to find on the ratings with some of these, but she looks a filly on the up having won her last three. The latest of those was a Listed win in France, so deserves to take her chance in this G3, plus that also came on heavy ground, so the softer conditions here will be fine. Of the rest, Method is the top-rated in the field but needs to bounce back from a very poor run last time out – albeit in the G1 Middle Park Stakes. He’s clearly better than that and will find this drop in grade easier, while his saddle slipped last time too so did have an excuse. Ryan Moore booked to ride the Nigel Tinkler runner – Acklam Express – stands out too. He’s a Listed winner at York, but was also beaten at that level last time out at Donny so needs more for me. Bahrain Pride, Burning Cash, Atalis Bay and the consistent Nomadic Empire are others that have the form to go well, but the other pick is WINTER POWER (e/w). The Tim Easterby yard won this race in 2011 and look to have another good chance here. She beat Nomadic Empire and First Company in a Listed race at Ayr last time out and so far, has won 3 of her 6 races. Yes, she’s tasted defeat to Acklam Express a few times, but heads into this race in slightly better form and the 3lbs fillies’ allowance is a further bonus.

 

2.25 – Godolphin Lifetime Care Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV3

15/16 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
15/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/16 – Had between 1-2 wins already
14/16 – Had between 1-3 career runs
13/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
12/16 – Won last time out
12/16 – Foaled in March or later
12/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/16 – Unplaced favourites
9/16 – Had won over 7f or further before
8/16 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
8/16 – Irish bred
5/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/16 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of last 3 winners)
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

TQ VERDICT: The Roger Varian yard have won this race twice in the last three years and they look to have another good chance this year with Setarhe and NAZUNA. Both have doe well this season and the former is also a proven course winner here. However, she’s also been beaten both times she’s tried this 7f trip – that’s a worry for me. In contrast, Nazuna has won over this trip in the past and also recorded a solid second over this distance in the G2 Rockfel Stakes at this track last time. She will also be ridden by Andrea Atzeni and this also represents a slight drop in grade. The Hannon yard also have a fair record in the race so their Thank You Next will be trying to add to that, while with Ryan Moore riding the Joseph O’Brien runner Thinking Of You, she’s sure to attract interest too. She won on debut at Limerick last month and ran well at this level (3rd) last time out at the Curragh. But the other one of interest is the Jane Chapple-Hyam runner – SAFFRON BEACH. She’s the only CD winner in the field after bolting-up in a maiden here last month and had some fair sorts in behind that day too. Yes, this is a big step up in class, but she did it very well and can only have learned a lot from that too. You feel that if she was trained by one of the showcase yards, she’d be a lot shorter in the betting.

 

3.00 – The Godolphin Stud & Stable Awards Challenge Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV3

17/17 – Won a Listed or Group race previously
17/17 – Won over 7f previously
17/17 – Raced 3 or more times that season
15/17 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
14/17 – Won 3 or more times previously
14/17 – Winners from stall 10 or lower
13/17 –  Raced at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
13/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
13/17 – Officially rated 113 or higher
11/17 – Priced 7/1 or lower
9/17 – Placed in their last race
9/17 – Favourites placed
8/17 – Won at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
6/17 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Goodwood (2) last time out
5/17 – Won their previous race
5/17 - Favourites that won
2/17 – Trained by Henry Candy
1/17 – Filly/Mare winners
Limato has won the race in 2017, 2018 and was runner-up in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

TQ VERDICT: A very open looking Group Two, with many chances. Glorious Journey got back to winning ways at Newbury last time out but that was in a Listed race and I think this step back into a G2 will make life harder for him. Pogo is a course winner and having run Persian King to 3 ¾ lengths in France two runs back is solid form after that horse ran so well in the Arc last weekend – but he’s still to win at Group level. Godolphin’s Zakouski is unexposed with just four career runs, but has won his last two well in Dubai over a mile so could be dangerous over this 7f trip is allowed to dictate. Khaloosy hasn’t really progressed after looking impressive in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot – has a bit to prove, for me, but the drop in trip could be interesting after running a bit free recently. Happy Power has done little wrong in winning his last two and has a chance, while Ryan Moore riding the German-trained Namos will stand out – but staying this 7f trip on softer ground would be a concern. That leaves us with DAAHYEH. This 3 year-old has not been out since running second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filles’ Turf, but on a plus will be fresh for this and has run well in the past fresh. She’s also a CD winner at the track after winning the Rockfel Stakes here last season and ran the classy Love close at the Curragh last September too. She’ll get a handy 5lbs off most of the others too so that further adds to her chance, with the Roger Varian yard sure to have her ready to run a big race.

 

3.35 – Bet365 Fillies´ Mile (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV3

16/16 - Finished in the first three last time out
16/16 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
15/16- Yet to win a Group 1
14/16 – Finished in the first two last time out
14/16 – Foaled in Feb or later
14/16 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
12/16 – Had won between 2-3 times before
12/16 – Favourites that finished in the top three
11/16 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Won last time out
10/16 – Had won a Group race before
9/16 - Foaled in Feb or March
7/16 - Raced at Doncaster last time out
7/16 – Irish bred
7/16 - Winning favourites (or joint)
6/16 – Irish-trained winners
4/16 - Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/16 – US bred
3/16 – Won by trainer John Gosden
3/16 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4 of the last 6 winners have been Irish-trained
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: A nice renewal of this Group One. Isabella Giles was a top winner of the G2 Rockfel Stakes here last time out but she is stepping up to 1m here (from 7f) in a better race so I’d prefer to have seen her over the trip really. Ingo Girl has won both her starts and looks another star in the making for the John Gosden yard. She beat Dubai Fountain by ¾ of a length in the May Hill Stakes last time out and has form on soft ground too – she should uphold that form. We’ve probably not seen the best of her yet, but she has looked a bit green in her races. Pretty Gorgeous is a big player too – she is yet to finish out of the first two from four races and the softer ground here should be more to her liking than last time at the Curragh. However, she was beaten last time out by the Aidan O’Brien-trained SHALE and I think the form can be upheld. That came over 7f, but based on her breeding Shale looks the sort to improve further now she’s being stepped up to a mile again. She won easily over this trip back in July, but has since been running over 7f and even though she doesn’t lack pace I think on this softer ground her stamina should come into play. Ryan Moore also rode her for the first time last time and remains in the saddle – it goes without saying that’s a huge plus.

 

4.10 – Bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap Cl2 (3yo) 1m4f ITV3

6 previous runnings
5/6 – Had won at least twice before
5/6 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
5/6 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
4/6 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
4/6 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
3/6 – Ran at Haydock last time out
2/6 – Priced 8/1 in the betting
2/6 – Ridden by William Buick
2/6 – Came from stall 17
1/6 – winning favourites
Trainer Ralph Becket won the race last season
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 13/1

TQ VERDICT: 17 runners heading to post here in what looks a very competitive contest. With two of the last six winners coming from stall 17, then this could be deemed a plus for the Hugo Palmer runner – DOUBLING DICE. This 3 year-old bolted-up at Hamilton two runs ago and followed that up with another win at Haydock last time. He’s up 6lbs for the last of those wins but that recent success was made even better as he stumbled at the start. He also probably won with more than the ½ length in-hand, while 50% of the last 6 winners also raced at Haydock last time out. Galata Bridge, Shandoz and Luncies were all good winners last time out and have to be considered too, while Surrey Pride caught the eye in winning his race at Chester last time, but is up 6lbs here and also trying this longer trip for the first time. But it’s a race jockey William Buick has also done well in – winning two of the last 6 – so his mount – CEPHEUS (e/w) – is the other of interest. This 3 year-old was only ¾ of a length behind the better-fancied Shandoz last time at Ascot, but has a 2lbs pull for that so there is every chance there won’t be a lot between the pair again here. Of the rest, trainer Alan King won this race last year and has a 40% record with his 3 year-olds at the track – he runs TRITONIC, while the John Gosden camp boast a 22% record with their 3 year-olds here so their Frankel gelding INDIGO LAKE, who won well at Newcastle last time out, is another to keep an eye on in the betting.

 

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