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30th October 2020

Newmarket Trends and Tips (Thurs 24th Sept 2020)

This midweek the ITV racing cameras head to Newmarket racecourse to take in the three-day Cambridgeshire Meeting.

On Thursday, there are four LIVE ITV races, with the Group Three Tattersalls Stakes (3.00) the feature - a race that ALL of the last 10 winners have been drawn in stalls 2, 5 or 7!

We take a look at the LIVE races from a trends and stats angle - use these to find the best winning profiles of past winners.

 

Newmarket Free Racing Tips & Trends (Thurs 24th Sept)

 

1.50 – Bentley Motors Nursery Handicap Cl2 (2yo) 1m ITV4

10/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
10/10 – Foaled in Feb or later
9/10 – Placed in the top three last time out
9/10 – Won between 0-2 times before
9/10 – Never raced at the track before
8/10 – Carried 8-10 or more in weight
8/10 – Won over 6f or 7f before
8/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Foaled in March or later
6/10 – Rated between 80-85 (inc)
6/10 – Placed favourites
3/10 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
3/10 – Winners from stall 9
3/10 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Ridden by William Buick
1/10 – Winning favourites
1/10 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: Some stars of the future on show here, but the first thing to note is the Michael Bell yard are only 0-from-37 with their 2 year-olds at the track so that’s not great news for their maiden Olympic Theatre. Frankie teams up with his old retainer – Godolphin – to ride the Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Last Sunset and this one has the form to go well after three decent runs. However, the call is for the John Gosden runner – LOST IN SPACE – to continue it’s winning run. This colt has won his last two at Lingfield and Newmarket (July) and with both wins coming of varying ground then underfoot conditions will be fine. He’s up to 1m for the first time but has run as if that shouldn’t be an issue either, while the Gosden camp have a decent 20% record with their juveniles at the track. Mark Of The Man is the top-rated in the field, so of the rest, has to be respected too, with the Richard Hughes runner – Lightening Strike - making up the five runners.

2.25 – British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4

1 previous running
Trainer Andrew Balding won this race last season
Trainer James Tate has a 33% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Michael Dods is 2-from-4 with his 4+ year-olds at the track

TQ VERDICT: Just the one previous running to go on here, but with the Andrew Balding yard having won this race 12 months ago their QUICKSTEP LADY is worth chancing. This 3 year-old gets in here with bottom-weight of just 8-5 and should be full of confidence after a very easy win at Goodwood last time out. That came over 7f, so we know she stays further than this 6f trip so another bold bid from the front looks on the cards. The consistent Gale Force Maya should be in the mix too and the Dods team are 2-from-4 at the track with their 4+ year-olds, but she’s still 10lbs higher than her last win and despite being placed in her last five races, hasn’t won for over a year. Betsey Trotter was a nice winner at Thirsk last time out, but a 6lb rise for that and in a better race makes life a lot harder. Of the rest, Ryan Moore riding for Richard Hughes catches the eye – Caspian Queen – while FLIPPA THE STRIPPA (e/w) looked to be running into form last time out with a close second at Lingfield. She’s only a pound higher but in this better race gets in with 13lbs less in weight to carry – William Buick rides.

3.00 – Tattersalls Stakes (Registered as the Somerville Tattersall Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV4

10/10 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
10/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
10/10 – Drawn in stalls 2 (3), 5 (4) or 7 (3)
10/10 – Won between 1-3 times before
9/10 – Foaled in Feb or later
9/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Favourites placed in the top 3
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/10 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/10 – Irish trained
2/10 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard
1/10 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

TQ VERDICT: Yazaman and Qaader set the clear standard on what we’ve seen on the track and will be big players here. The former – Yazaman - has run well at Group level already this season and he has run as if this 7f trip will suit, having run on well over 6 ½ furlongs last time out – Dark Lion was fourth in that same race. But the form of that run has taken a bit of a knock since and with just one win from 6 starts is a horse that is placed more than winning at the moment.  Qaader has a similar profile and has run well in G2 races this season, but has fallen short of actually winning one. The step up in trip should suit on breeding though and has to be considered. The call though is to side with the Godolphin runner – LA BARROSA. The Charlie Appleby yard have a cracking 27% record with their 2 year-olds at the track and jockey William Buick isn’t far behind on 22%. This colt was a nice winner at Ascot over this trip on debut, so the fact he’s proven over the distance is a big plus. With that experience under his belt he should have more scope than some of the others and might just improve past them at this stage of the season – with some of the others having busy seasons already for such young horses. Of the rest, the Richard Hannon runner – Ventura Tormenta – is the top-rated in the field and has to be respected on that, but does have to give away 5lbs to the field and that might prove his undoing.

 

3.35 – Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 2m ITV4

9/10 – Placed favourites
9/10 – Had run in the last 5 weeks
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Had run at the course before (3 won)
7/10 – Drawn in stalls 5 or lower
7/10 – Won 3 or more times
7/10 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Had won over at least 1m6f before
7/10 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Trained by John Gosden
3/10 – Ridden by William Buick
2/10 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
Withhold (10/11 fav) won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: Several familiar stayers on show here. MILDENBERGER is the top-rated in the line-up and is one of just two proven course winners in the field. This 5 year-old can go well and has only been out of the first three four times from his 16 career runs. He was last seen running the classy Nayef Road to ½ a length in the Sagaro Stakes at Newcastle and on that form is the one to beat. Yes, the 110-day break might put some off, but he’s run well off a break in the past and since being stepped up to this 2m trip has form figures that read 3-3-1-1-2. Ghostwatch, Ranch Hand and Sleeping Lion are all others that are useful on their day but are also horses that have been a bit out-of-form of late so need to bounce back. The Murty McGrath runner – Who What When – is having is debut on the flat but is fit from a run over hurdles recently (Fontwell) and at least we know staying won’t be an issue and a few seasons ago had some useful bumper form to her name. She also gets the mares’ allowance. But the bigger danger to the pick can come from last year’s winner of this race – WITHHOLD. This 7 year-old is the only CD winner in the field and comes here off the back of a solid second in a Conditions race at Salisbury. He can go well, and staying the trip will be fine, but it won’t be easy having to give 3lbs away to the others and 8lbs to Who What When.

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