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29th September 2020

Royal Ascot Tips and Trends: DAY FIVE (Sat 20th June 2020)

 GOOD NEWS - The 2020 ROYAL ASCOT  fixture is on!!  But, Ascot officials have already stated it will be done behind closed doors.

Into DAY FIVE at  ROYAL ASCOT we've EIGHT more mouth-watering races to look forward to that include the Queen Mary Stakes and Coventry Stakes, plus the Group Ones that include the Coronation Stakes, Diamond Jubilee Stakes and St James's Palace Stakes.

Did you know that 15 of the last 18 Coronation Stakes winners had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season?

Like all big race days here at TRAINERS-QUOTES we've got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

Enjoy!

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Note: Due to the current COVID-19 situation, Ascot have already stated that if their Royal Ascot Meeting gets the green light to race, it will be staged behind closed doors.

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2020 Royal Ascot Horse Racing Trends

12.40 - Silver Wokingham Handicap (3yo+) 6f

TQ VERDICT: Another new race introduced this year – a contest for all the horses that failed to get into today’s Wokingham Handicap (4.10). Therefore, no trends to go on, but it might still pay to look at the key stats for the main Wokingham race here. 9 of the last 10 winners came from a double-figure draw, while 19 of the last 20 winners had finished in the top 6 last time out. 4 and 5 year-olds have also dominated the main race – winning 17 of the last 20. The Ed Walker runner – Swindler – has been popular for this race after being 2-from-2 here at the track, but he’s drawn 4 and might not be great value in the betting. If he is to go off favourite, then despite the big field, then the main race hasn’t been a bad contest for the market leaders – winning 25% of the last 20 – so if that’s translated here that’s a plus for him. 10 of the last 14 main Wokingham winners carried 9-3 or less in weight though so with that in mind the Haggas-trained NAHAARR (e/w) stands out. This 4 year-old carried 9-2 and is also drawn high in 21. James Doyle rides and a recent 4th at HQ should have him spot-on for this. That recent run also came over 7f, so the drop back to 6f is a positive as he got tired in the closing stages that day and lost two places late on. Another interesting runner in the Jedd O’Keeffe entry – FLAVIUS TITUS (e/w). This 5 year-old will have the services of the in-form Hollie Doyle and is another that should be sharper for his recent run at Newmarket. He’s dropped 3lbs in the ratings too, while the yard have a decent 22% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track. Of the rest, the likes of Blue Mist, Aplomb, Burmese Waltz and Embour have cases, while the 8 year-old LOUIE DE PALMA (e/w) might also warrant a small interest. He’s a proven CD winner and draw 12 will give him options. He’s also gone well in the soft if there is any more rain, while his form as a consistent profile to it.

1.15 - Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) 5f

Queen Mary Recent Winners

2019 – Raffle Prize (18/1)
2018 – Signora Cabello (25/1)
2017 – Heartache (5/1)
2016 – Lady Aurelia (2/1 fav)
2015 – Acapulco (5/2 fav)
2014 – Anthem Alexander (9/4 fav)
2013 – Rizeena (6/1)
2012 – Ceiling Kitty (20/1)
2011 – Best Terms (12/1)
2010 – Maqaasid (9/4 fav)
2009 – Jealous Again (13/2)
2008 – Langs Lash (25/1)
2007 – Elletelle (20/1)
2006 – Gilded (11/2)
2005 – Flashy Wings (4/1 jfav)
2004 – Damson (11/2 jfav)
2003 – Attraction (13/8 fav)
2002 – Romantic Liason (16/1)

Queen Mary Stakes Trends

17/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
17/18 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
15/18 – Had won over 5f (or shorter) before
15/18 – Won by a horse foaled between Jan-Mar
15/18 – Won their previous race
12/18 – Placed favourites
7/18 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
7/18 – Returned a double-figure price
3/18 – Trained by Wesley Ward (including 2 of last 5 runnings)
2/18 – Won by trainer Richard Hannon

TQ VERDICT: We get a chance to see some of the 2 year-olds in action here and being a race the US trainer – Wesley Ward has done well in recently – winning 2 of the last 5 – then his Campanelle is sure to be popular, especially with Frankie riding. However, if the ground is softer then her ability to handle it might be in question. Richard Hannon is another trainer that’s done well in the race so his HAPPY ROMANCE (e/w) might be worth risking. This juvenile has already had two runs this month and the penny dropped last time out at Sandown when winning easily by 4 ½ lengths. That experience will be a big plus and could have more to offer. Of the rest, Sacred was a nice winner on debut at HQ and commands respect too, while the Johnston team, who won this race last year, have Sands Of Time. But the other pick is the Aidan O’Brien entry – MORE BEAUTIFUL. This speedy filly also won well on debut (Naas) earlier this month and can be expected to be above average coming from this powerful yard. She’s likely to want further in time, but showed plenty of pace in that first race to suggest she’s going to be a big player here. Ryan Moore rides.

1.50 - Coventry Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

Recent Coventry Stakes Winners

2019 – Arizona (15/8 fav)
2018 – Calyx (2/1 fav)
2017 – Rajasinghe (11/1)
2016 – Caravaggio (13/8 fav)
2015 – Buratino (6/1)
2014 – The Wow Signal (5/1 jfav)
2013 – War Command (20/1)
2012 – Dawn Approach (7/2)
2011 – Power (4/1 fav)
2010 – Strong Suit (15/8 fav)
2009 – Canford Cliffs (7/4 fav)
2008 – Art Connoisseur (8/1)
2007 – Henrythenavigator (11/4 fav)
2006 – Hellvelyn (4/1 jfav)
2005 – Red Clubs (11/2)
2004 – Iceman (5/1 jfav)
2003 – Three Valleys (7/1)
2002 – Statue Of Liberty (16/1)

Coventry Stakes Trends

18/18 – Won their previous race
17/18 – Had never raced at Ascot before
16/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 - Came from the top three in the betting
15/18 – Had between 1 and 2 previous career runs
13/18 - Foaled in either Feb or March
12/18 – Won over 6f before
10/18 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
6/18 – Ran at either Newbury or Newmarket last time out
6/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
1/18 - Won by a Jan foal
10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 6 or higher
7 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 9-19 (inc)

TQ VERDICT: More 2 year-old action here and it could be safe for punters to side with trainer Aidan O’Brien again. The Irish handler has won this race 6 times in the last 18 years so the fact he’s sending over Admiral Nelson, who was a nice winner on debut at the Curragh. Breeding suggests he’ll get a longer trip in time so any ease in the ground would bring that potential stamina into play and Ryan Moore riding is the icing on the cake. However, I’m going to take him on with the super-impressive QAADER, who bolted-up by 4 lengths at Newbury, last week. The Johnston team remain in good form and have also been amongst the winners at this meeting this week. Godolphin’s Creative Force, Lauded and Talbot were other good winners on debut that can’t be ruled out, but the other pick is the John Gosden runner – EXISTENT (e/w) – who can be expected to improve for his debut third at Newmarket. He ran green that day and looked a bit unbalanced into the dip so the Ascot track here is expected to suit much better, while that experience should also have brought the horse on. Frankie rides, so that’s a further bonus.

2.25 - Coronation Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m

Coronation Stakes Past Winners

2019 – Watch Me (20/1)
2018 – Alpha Centauri (11/4 fav)
2017 – Winter (4/9 fav)
2016 – Qemah (6/1)
2015 – Ervedya (3/1)
2014 – Rizeena (11/2)
2013 – Sky Lantern (9/2 jfav)
2012 – Fallen For You (12/1)
2011 – Immortal Verse (8/1)
2010 – Lillie Langtry (7/2 fav)
2009 – Ghanaati (2/1 fav)
2008 – Lush Lashes (5/1)
2007 – Indian Ink (8/1)
2006 – Nannina (6/1 jfav)
2005 – Maids Causeway (9/2)
2004 – Attraction (6/4 fav)
2003 – Russian Rhythm (4/7 fav)
2002 – Sophisticat (11/2)

Coronation Stakes Recent Trends

18/18 – Had won over at least 7f before
16/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
13/18 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 previously
13/18 – Had won over at least a 1 mile before
9/18 – Had run at Ascot before (3 winners)
8/18 – Ran in that season’s English 1,000 Guineas
8/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
8/18 – Unplaced last time out
5/18 – Ran in that season’s Irish 1,000 Guineas
3/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
12 of the last 14 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
No winners from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
12 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
Just two horses placed from stall 2 (2nd ) in the last 14 runnings
8 of the last 14 winners were non UK-trained – French (4), Irish (4)

TQ VERDICT: Alpine Star, with Frankie Dettori riding for Jessie Harrington catches the eye and after winning her last two starts heads here with a big chance. She should be fine over this 1m trip (up from 7f) and the yard and these owners took this race in 2018 with Alpha Centauri the Irish has also won 4 of the last 14 runnings. The French-trained runners have also done well in this race – also winning 4 of the last 14 – so their SHARING is another to note. She’s won her last four and will be fitter than most after a run in France back in May and Oisin Murphy getting off Run Wild to ride her could be significant. Quadrilateral will also be popular but has a bit to prove having been put in her place in the 1,000 Guineas (3rd) last time out. She was beaten 4 ½ lengths that day but should be fitter for it and won’t mind any give in the ground – should go close. Cloak Of Spirits was second in that 1,000 Guineas, so Quadrilateral also has ground to make up with this Hannon runner. The other of interest here is the John Gosden runner Run Wild. This 3 year-old was a very impressive winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes at HQ last time out and with that win coming over 1m2f we know she’ll stay this 1m trip easily. She’s got form with give underfoot too and looks a big player too, but this is a big step up from Listed company to a Group One. Of the rest, SO WONDERFUL (e/w) can do best of the bigger-priced runners. From the O’Brien yard and with Moore riding, this 3 year-old was a solid third in the Irish 1,000 Guineas a week ago and despite not winning a race yet, has been placed in the top three in 6 of her 9 starts.

3.00 - St James´s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m

Recent St James’s Palace Stakes Winners

2019 – Circus Maximus (10/1)
2018 – Without Parole (9/4 fav)
2017 – Barney Roy (5/2)
2016 – Galileo Gold (6/1)
2015 – Gleneagles (8/15 fav)
2014 – Kingman (8/11 fav)
2013 – Dawn Approach (5/4 fav)
2012 – Most Improved (9/1)
2011 – Frankel (3/10 fav)
2010 – Canford Cliffs (11/4 jfav)
2009 – Mastercraftsman (5/6 fav)
2008 – Henrythenavigator (4/7 fav)
2007 – Excellent Art (8/1)
2006 – Araafa (2/1 fav)
2005 – Shamardal (7/4 fav)
2004 – Azamour (9/2)
2003 - Zafeen (8/1)
2002 – Rock Of Gibraltar (4/5 fav)

St James’s Palace Stakes Trends

18/18 - Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
15/18 – Favourites that were placed
15/18 – Had won over a mile before
14/18– Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
12/18 – Previous Group 1 winners
12/18 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
10/18 – Won their previous race
9/18 – Ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas (Curragh) last time out (7 won it)
6/18 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
5/18 – Had run at Ascot before
Just 2 winners from stall 1 or 2 in the last 12 runnings
6 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 4 or 5

TQ VERDICT: Wichita and Pinatubo were second and third in the 2,000 Guineas at HQ recently and both command a lot of respect. The later is the clear top-rated here off a mark of 126 and if you can forgive that last effort when turned over as the 5/6 favourite then he’s a huge player. However, Wichita seemed to finish the race off better over that 1m trip and I’m not so sure this distance suits the prolific Godolphin runner – we’ll see. He might just have needed it after a long break, but if the ground gets any softer then this will further question his stamina. Threat, Positive and Arizona are others with fair form, but it’s I’ll take a chance with the John Gosden runner – PALACE PIER. This 3 year-old is unbeaten from three runs and could not have been more impressive on his return run at Newcastle earlier this month. Of course, this is a big step up in grade, but the horse is clearly held in high regard and is already figuring high up in the Epsom Derby betting. Frankie Dettori rides.

3.35 - Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f

Diamond Jubilee Stakes Recent Winners

2019 – Blue Point (6/4 fav)
2018 – Merchant Navy (4/1)
2017 – The Tin Man (9/2)
2016 – Twilight Son (7/2)
2015 – Undrafted (14/1)
2014 – Slade Power (7/2 fav)
2013 – Lethal Force (11/1)
2012 – Black Caviar (1/6 fav)
2011 – Society Rock (25/1)
2010 – Starspanglebanner (13/2 jfav)
2009 – Art Connoisseur (20/1)
2008 – Kingsgate Native (33/1)
2007 – Soldier’s Tale (9/1)
2006 – Les Arcs (33/1)
2005 – Cape Of Good Hope (8/1)
2004 - Fayr Jag (12/1)
2003 – Choisir (13/2)

Diamond Jubilee Stakes Key Trends

16/17 – Previous distance (6f) winners
14/17 – Aged 5 or younger
14/17 – Previous Group Race winners
12/17 – Failed to win their last race
12/17 – Had run at Ascot before
10/17 – Won by a UK-based yard
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
6/17 – Ran in the King’s Stand Stakes earlier at the meeting
4/17 – Winning favourite (joint)
2/17 – Trained by James Fanshawe
6 of the last 15 winners were Irish-bred
8 of the last 15 winners came from a double-figure draw
No winner from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings
6 of the last 15 winners returned a double-figure price.

TQ VERDICT: The Tin Man has run well in this race before – winning it in 2017 – but at 8 years-old isn’t getting any younger and is now 6 runs without a win. DREAM OF DREAMS (e/w) was a head runner-up in the race 12 months ago too and despite losing his way a bit after has been gelded over the winter and if back to that level would be very interesting – Ryan Moore rides. He’s a bit of ground to make up with Hello Youmzain, who was a nice winner of the G1 Sprint Cup at Haydock last September and would be well-suited by any soft ground. But he’s run at Ascot twice in the past now and been beaten both times – that would be a worry. Sands Of Mali and Speak In Colours are proven CD winners to respect, while Frankie riding the Irish raider Sceptical catches the eye. But this is a big leap up from Listed grade into a Group One. So, I’m happy to take a chance on ONE MASTER with the other pick. This proven course winner was third in the Queen Anne Stakes here last season and runner-up in the Champions Sprint Stakes here in October, so the track is fine. She’s also won with cut in the ground so if any more rain comes that’s fine.

4.10 - Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-110) 6f

Wokingham Stakes Recent Winners

2019 – Cape Byron (7/2 fav)
2018 – Bacchus (33/1)
2017 – Out Do (25/1)
2016 – Outback Traveller (10/1)
2015 – Interception (10/1)
2014 – Baccarat (9/1)
2013 – York Glory (14/1)
2012 – Dandy Boy (33/1)
2011 – Deacon Blues (15/2)
2010 – Laddies Poker Two (9/2 fav)
2009 – High Standing (8/1)
2008 – Big Timer I (20/1)
2007 – Dark Missile (22/1)
2006 – Baltic King (10/1)
2005 – Iffraaj (9/4 fav)
2004 – Lafi (6/1 fav)
2003 – Ratio (14/1) / Fayr Jag (10/1)  (dead-heat)

Wokingham Stakes Key Trends

20/20 – Had won before over 6f or 7f
20/20 – Had no more than 4 runs that season­­
19/20 – Finished sixth or better last time out
18/20 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
17/20 – Had won a race over 6f before
17/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/20 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
12/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/20 – Had run at Ascot before (7 had won here)
10/20 – Ran at either Ascot, Goodwood or Newmarket last time
6/20 – Won their previous race
5/20 – Won by the favourite
10 of the last 14 winners carried 9-3 or less in weight
9 of the last 14 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
10 of the last 14 winners came from a double-figure draw
9 of the last 10 winners came from a double-figure stall
7 of the last 9 runnings - the top 2 finishers all came from double-figure stalls
Horse from stall 15 has been placed in 3 of the last 9 runnings
Since 1980 there have been only 8 winning favourites
Since 1980 there have been 31 winners returning a double-figure price.

TQ VERDICT: 24 runners heading to post here so another tricky contest for backers. With 10 of the last 14 winners coming from a double-figure stall, this is the first stat to note, while 17 of the last 20 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old. 10 of the last 14 winners also carried 9-3 or less in weight. With those stats taken into account the ones that stand out are KONCHEK, HIGHLAND DRESS, LETHAL LUNCH, NO NONSENSE, HEY JONESY and AIR RAID – they are all drawn high, aged 4 or 5 and carry 9-3 or less in weight. All six are respected, but the two I’ll be playing are HIGHLAND DRESS (e/w) and KONCHEK (e/w). The first-named has won his last two in the style of a fast-improving 4 year-old and despite being 6lbs higher here looks likely to have more to come. Draw 17 looks fine and when trained in Ireland has run over further so if the ground is softer that stamina will help. Konchek is drawn next door in 16 and having run in Group and Listed races last season should find this a bit easier. He’s also been gelded over the winter so could improve for that and has run well at the track before – including a close fifth in the 2018 Norfolk Stakes at this meeting. Of the rest, the Kevin Ryan runner – Bielsa – has been popular in the betting for this race for a while, but draw 3 might not be ideal and he’s not going to be much value in a race with 23 others to beat. Tinto and Mubakker are others punters are sure to latch onto after good wins recently.

4.40 - Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m5f159y

Queen Alexandra Stakes Recent Winners

2019 – Cleonte (7/2)
2018 – Pallasator (11/2)
2017 – Oriental Fox (10/1)
2016 – Commissioned (12/1)
2015 – Oriental Fox (4/1)
2014 – Pique Sous (11/4)
2013 – Chiberta King (8/1)
2012 – Simenon (11/4 fav)
2011 – Swingkeel (11/2)
2010 – Bergo (10/1)
2009 – Caracciola (6/1)
2008 – Honolulu (7/4 fav)
2007 – Enjoy The Moment (6/1)
2006 – Baddam (11/2)
2005 – Cruzspiel (10/1)
2004 – Corrib Eclipse (25/1)
2003 – Cover Up (4/5 fav)

Queen Alexandra Stakes Key Trends

15/17 – Finished unplaced last time out
11/17 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
10/17 – Had run at Ascot before
10/17 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years old
5/17 – Won by a NH yard
5/17 – Irish-trained winners
3/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/17 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
10 of the last 14 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
12 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 9-16 (inc)
11 of the last 14 winners came from a double-figure stall

TQ VERDICT: The longest race at the meeting (2m 5 1/2f) so no shock to see some of the jumping yard in attendance, including Alan King, who looks to have a great chance with his versatile Who Dares Wins. This 8 year-old mixes it up over hurdles and on the flat and ran well to be 7th in the Cesarewitch at HQ last season. He is, however, rated 3lbs higher here and won’t have the jockey claiming 7lbs (like he did that day). He should be thereabouts, but I’m happy to take him on. Course winner – The Grand Visir – won the Ascot Stakes here last year – he can go well too but a 241-day absence from the track is a slight concern. Fun Mac often runs well in these sorts of races, but at 9 isn’t getting any younger. Mekong is sure to be popular too if running and is the clear top-rated at 112 in this Stakes race, so that makes him the one to beat. He showed good form around Listed grade when trained by Sir Michael Stoute and has run well in his races for Jamie Osborne since joining him this year - he also ran in Thursday's G1 Gold Cup, but will be in much calmer waters here. But I’ll take a chance on the Andrew Balding yard winning this race again – they took it 12 months ago. They try this year with a horse called NATE THE GREAT (e/w). This 4 year-old has a bit to find on the ratings and is trying this sort of trip for the first time, but he’s got some good form around 1m4f and is sure to be ridden to get the trip – connections clearly feel he’s worth a crack over it and top jockey Oisin Murphy will give every assistance from the saddle. Of the rest, Ryan Moore riding for his dad Gary with IMPHAL (e/w) looks interesting and might be worth a small e/w play too.

 

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