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7th July 2020

Saturday LIVE Racing – Free Tips and Trends: 27th June 2020

Another decent day of LIVE ITV this Saturday as the cameras head to Newcastle and Newmarket. 

The Northumberland Plate takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse, while the ITV cameras also head to Newmarket, plus it’s Irish Derby Day over at the Curragh - here at TRAINERS-QUOTES we've got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.

So, put the odds in your favour – if a certain trend has happened many times in the past then there is a good chance of it repeating itself. As always, we hope these stats help direct you towards a few winners and pay for the weekend expenses.

Let’s get started!

 

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Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RacingTV)


2.05 – Betway Handicap Cl2 (3yo) 7f ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer Mick Appleby has a 38% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Charlie Appleby has a 27% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Tom Dascombe is only 1 from 21 (5%) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 24% record riding 3 year-olds a the track
Jockey Richard Kingscote is only 1 from 33 (3%) riding 3 year-olds at the track

TQ VERDICT: No previous runnings of this race but some interesting trainer and jockey stats to note. Firstly, trainer Mick Appleby has a decent 38% record with his 3 year-olds at the track so his Ayr Harbour, who has shown a good level of form, is certainly one for the shortlist. In contrast, the Tom Dascombe yard are only 1 from 21 (5%) with this age group so their Gifted Ruler has this to overcome. Ryan Moore catches the ye riding for Richard Hannon on Manigordo and this horse was a nice winner on it’s return at Sandown. But the call here is for the Charlie Appleby yard, who boast an impressive 27% strike-rate with their 3 year-olds here, to take this with their unbeaten BOCCACCIO. This Dubawi colt has won at Yarmouth and Kempton so far and should be more to come now into handicaps. Both wins have also been over this 7f trip and the firm ground will also be to his liking. Of the rest, Raatea, for jockey Jim Crowley is feared too off a featherweight.

2.40 – Betway Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

16/18 – Won over 7f before
16/18 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
16/18 – Had at least 1 run already that season
13/18 – Aged 5 or younger
12/18 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/18 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
9/18 – Came from stall 3 or lower
8/18 – Unplaced favourites
6/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 9 runnings)
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
Limato won the race in 2019
Sir Dancealot won the race in 2018

TQ VERDICT: We’ve got the last two winners of this race lining-up again here in Limato and Sir Dancealot, so both have to be respected. However, the former has to give 5lbs away the rest of the field and that makes life much harder. Limato can go well though but comes here off a 260 day break, while at the age of 8 he’s not getting any younger either. Jim Crowley would have had the pick of the Maktoum runners – Yafta and Turjomaan, so the fact he’s picked the last-named might be significant. However, YAFTA has the services of Ryan Moore and the jockeys don’t always get it right! This one is also trained by Richard Hannon, who have won this race 3 times in the last 9 years, and should be a lot fitter for a recent 5th at Haydock. Happy Power, plus the Frankie-ridden Vale Of Kent are others to respect, but the Godolphin boys also have a strong hand with On The Warpath and MUBTASIM. The latter is ridden by James Doyle and is a proven CD winner here at the track. He was an excellent head runner-up in the good race in Saudi Arabi and has been freshened up for this with 4 months off since.

3.15 – Betway Fairway Stakes (Listed) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV

13/13 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Had won between 1-2 times before
11/13 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
11/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/13 – Favourites placed in the top three
11/13 – Had won over 1m or further before
10/13 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Draw 1,2 or 3
8/13 – Had raced at Newmarket before (Rowley)
7/13 – Winning favourites
6/13 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/13 – US-bred winners
3/13 – Trained John Gosden
3/13 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/13 – Godolphin-owned winners
3/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/13 – Ridden by William Buick
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

TQ VERDICT: Just the five runners here but a nice little race. The Richard Hannon team have landed two of the last five runnings so theirMan Of The Nightenters the mix, while the Godolphin camp have trained 3 winners in the last 9 years so their Volkan Staris another to consider. However, it’s hard to not have been taken by the way THUNDEROUShas won his three races to date and there should be more to come. Ryan Moore has been booked to ride this Mark Johnston runner too and could end up being better than Listed class. Those looking to take him on will cling to the step up from 7f to 1m2f here, but there is decent evidence in his breeding to suggest the extra yardage is within range.

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)


1.50 – Betfair Backs Racing Welfare
Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

17/18 – Had won over 6f before
16/18 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
15/18 – Unplaced last time out
14/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
12/18 – Yet to win a Group race
11/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/18 – Had won at least 4 times before
8/18 – Aged 5 or older
8/18 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/18 – Had run at Newcastle before
2/18 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/18 – Won last time out
11 of the last 17 winners came between stalls 1-5
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 16 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: Plenty of proven course winners heading to post here, including the Tim Easterby-A decent Group Three to get the LIVE action going at Newcastle. A good place to start is the fact 11 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 1-5. If this trend is to be repeated then SHIMMERING DAWN, JUDICIAL, CHIEFOFCHIEFS, SHABAABY and BRANDO are the ones to focus on. With that in mind, a chance is taken on the Kevin Ryan runner – BRANDO. This 8 year-old is still going well at his age and is actually the top-rated in this field (115). He’ll be a lot fitter for his return run at Newmarket earlier this month and despite this being his first run on any sort of AW track there is no reason to think it won’t suit having shown good form on all turf conditions in the past. CD winner Mubakker will be the other main player from the Stoute yard. He’s a proven CD winner here and took another step forward 3 weeks ago when dotting up at the track. But that came in a handicap, so this is a big step up in grade to a Group 3. Of the rest, recent Royal Ascot winner Chiefofchiefs can go well but this will require more upped in grade, while Judicial and Keystroke are others to consider. But the other pick is the Kevin Ryan-trained MAJOR JUMBO. This 6 year-old does have a wide draw to overcome but the Ryan yard are going well at the moment and the horse will be a lot better for a return run third at HQ. That came at this level too over 5f but he’s just as good over this 6f. He’s a course winner too and overall AW form is very good – 4 runs, with 2 wins and 2 seconds. Kevin Stott, who rode both their Royal Ascot winners, is doing the steering.

2.25 – Betfair Free Bet Streak Gosforth Park Cup Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 5f

Just 4 past runnings
Trainers Richard Fahey, Tim Easterby, Paul Midgley and David Nicholls have won the race before
4/4 – Had run at Newcastle before
4/4 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
3/4 – Rated between 88 and 93 (inc)
3/4 – Placed favourites
3/4 – Won over 5f before
3/4 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
3/4 – Drawn in stalls 7 or higher
3/4 – Returned between 8/1 and 14/1 in the betting
2/4 – Won last time out
2/4 – Ran at Musselburgh last time out
1/4 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 8/1

TQ VERDICT: Plenty of proven course winners heading to post here, including the Tim Easerby-trained COPPER KNGHT. This 6 year-old is the top-rated in the field (105) and despite having, therefore, to give weight away to all the others I think this slight drop in grade will be up his street. Two runs since the return of racing would have him spot-on for this and draw 12 looks okay, considering 3 of the last 4 winners of this race came from stalls 7 or higher. The yard also won this race in 2018 with this horse so that’s surely got to be another big plus. Top female jockey Hollie Doyle’s ride – VENTUROUS– will be another for the shortlist after a close second just 3 days ago at Haydock. He’s a proven CD winner at the track and in this better race will get in with 12lbs less on his back. Lord Riddiford, Lahore and El Hombre are others to note, with the Kevin Ryan runner – Magical Spirit – possibly the one they’ve all got to beat after his nice win at Beverley a few weeks ago.

3.00 – Betfair Exchange Hoppings Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV

4/4 – Drawn stalls 5 or lower
4/4 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
3/4 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
3/4 – Yet to run at the track
3/4 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/4 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
3/4 – Rated between 95 and 100
2/4 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
Copper Knight won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 4/1

TQ VERDICT: Only a handful of recent runs of this race. But with ALL 4 past winners drawn in stalls 5 or lower then this is good news for the likes of SWEET PROMISE, LOOK AROUND, VIRGIN SNOW and NKOSIKAZI. The Ralph Becket runner – ALOE VERA – could be the spoiler in the pack to those already mentioned though. This 4 year-old has won both her starts to date and was a nice Listed winner at Goodwood when last seen over a year ago. She’s had more time to learn and strengthen up and is clearly a well-regarded sort that connections have taken care with – trainer Ralph Beckett also has a 36% record with his 4+ year-olds here. Look Around is rated the same at the pick and with the benefit of a recent run has to be a big danger, while the Haggas runner – NKOSIKAZImight have more to offer. She won on her return at Redcar recently and has now finished in the top 3 in 7 of her 12 turf races. William Haggas also has a cracking 31% record with his older horses at the track.

3.35 – Betfair Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV4

Past Northumberland Plate Winners

2018 -  Withhold (5/1 fav)
2017 - 
Higher Power (11/2)
2016 –
Antiquarium (16/1)
2015 –
Quest For More (15/2)
2014 –
Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 –
Tominator (8/1)
2012 –
Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 –
Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)

Key Northumberland Plate Trends

16/17  - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
16/17 – Finished fifth or better last time out
15/17 – Came from stall 14 or lower
15/17 – Aged 6 or younger
13/17 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
13/17 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
10/17 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
6/17 – Won by a National Hunt yard
5/17 – Won their previous race
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 11 winners)
3/17 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/17 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/17 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 4)
1/17 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 13/1
Note: The 2016, 2017 & 2018 running was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last 13 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Nine winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 3 of the last 7
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

TQ VERDICT: A big field of 20 head to post here. 15 of the last 17 winners were aged 6 or younger so the likes of Magic Circle (8), Rainbow Dreamer (7), Cosmeli (7) & Denmead (7) have this stat to overcome. 15 of the last 17 winners also came from stalls 14 or lower, so more negatives for Rainbow Dreamer (15), Cosmeli (16), Caravan Of Hope (17), Anyonecanhaveitall (18), Collide (19) & Mukha Magic (20). The in-form Charlie Fellowes yard run Carnwennan, who also won the consolation of this race 12 months ago. This will be harder off a 9lb higher mark and is on a bit of a recovery mission having not won a race since (5 runs). So, despite the big field it’s actually not been a bad race for the market leader – 3 of the last 7 favourites have won. Therefore, the Roger Varian runner – AUSTRALIS – looks very interesting. There was a lot of money for this 4 year-old last time out and that proved right as he won well that day – beating another fancy here, Caravan Of Hope, by ½ a length. He seemed to win with more in-hand that day and travelled very well through the race to suggest there is a lot more to come. The longer trip should be fine and his AW record to date is good. The handicapper only raised him 5lbs for that win and in this better race gets in with only 8-2 to carry! Of the rest, the Mark Johnston runner – KING’S ADVICE (e/w) – is the other horse I’ll be playing. This 6 year-old ran well in a Listed contest at Doncaster last time out over 1m6f and prior to that wasn’t disgraced here in the G2 Sagaro Stakes. This ease in grade will help and should be a lot fitter than most after those recent outings. Reshoun, Collide and Glencadam Glory are others that can’t be totally ruled out.

Curragh Horse Racing Trends (Ire)

7.15 – Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Colts and Fillies) (3yo) 1m4f

Recent Irish Derby Winners

2019 – SOVEREIGN (33/1)
2018 – LATROBE (14/1)
2017 – CAPRI (6/1)
2016 – HARZAND (4/6 fav)
2015 – JACK HOBBS (10/11 fav)
2014 – AUSTRALIA (1/8 fav)
2013 – TRADING LEATHER (6/1)
2012 - CAMELOT  (1/5 fav)
2011 – TREASURE BEACH (7/2)
2010 – CAPE BLANCO (7/2)
2009 – FAME AND GLORY (8/11 fav)
2008 – FROZEN FIRE (16/1)
2007 – SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (5/1)
2006 – DYLAN THOMAS (9/2 fav)
2005 – HURRICANE RUN (4/5 fav)
2004 – GREY SWALLOW (10/1)
2003 – ALAMSHAR (4/1)

Key Irish Derby Betting Trends and Stats

17/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
15/17 – Won by an Irish-based yard
15/17 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
13/17 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
13/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Won a Group race before
13/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
12/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/17 – Failed to win their last race
12/17 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
11/17 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
10/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won it 13 times in total)
7/17 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (3 winners, Harzand, Australia & Camelot)
4/17 – Previous Group 1 winners
3/17 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: Trainer Aidan O’Brien has made this race his own in recent times – winning it a staggering 13 times. He’s - once again – mob-handed for this Saturday’s race, with no fewer than 6 of the 15 runners – ARTHUR’S KINGDOM, DAWN PATROL, IBERIA, ORDER OF AUSTRALIA, SANTIAGO and TIGER MOTH. He’s also won this race with some big-priced runners in the past so it’s hard to rule out any of the six – including 12 months ago when his Sovereign beat his recent Epsom Derby winner by 6 lengths at 33/1! Of his runners, Arthur’s Kingdom was an excellent runner-up in the King Edward VI Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out and can go well, but their main hope looks to be SANTIAGO, who landed the Queen’s Vase at Ascot last week. Yes, that came over 1m6f but that proves he stays this 1m4f well and that proven stamina can be used to full use. Seamie Hefferman takes over in the saddle from Ryan Moore, but the O’Brien jockey bookings still suggest this is their main player. He’s clearly a fast-improving middle-distance performer and the form looks solid with the runner-up – Berkshire Rocco – having previously run well in the Lingfield Derby Trial. Of the rest, Joseph O’Brien has Crossfirehurricane in the race and has done nothing wrong in winning all four of his starts, including one here at the course. Iberia and Sherpa are others to consider and have both shown a good level of form, but the main danger to the pick can come from FISCAL RULES (e/w). This 3 year-old was last seen running well to be 5th in the Irish 2000 Guineas. This Jim Bolger horse looked a bit outpaced over that 1m trip so the step up to 1m4f here looks a good move. Breeding indicates he’ll be better over further and that run would have blown the cobwebs away.

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