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3rd December 2020

Saturday Racing Tips and Trends: 10th October 2020

More LIVE ITV action on Saturday 10th October for day two of the Newmarket Dubai Future Champions meeting, plus there is also LIVE racing from York. Plenty to get stuck into again with the ultra-competitive Cesarewitch Handicap one of the key betting races of the flat turf season, while the race is supported by the Autumn Stakes & the Group One Dewhurst Stakes, where we get to see some of the stars of the future.

As mentioned, ITV cameras are also at York to take in three races, with the feature being the Coral Sprint Trophy.

So as always, we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle, plus our verdicts on each race.

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.45 – Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV

13/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/13 – Foaled in Feb, Mar or April
12/13 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
12/13 – Won no more than twice before
11/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/13 – Had won over at least 1m before
10/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Drawn in stalls 2-5 (inc)
8/13 – Won last time out
6/13 – Came from stalls 2 or 3
6/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Ran at Leicester last time out
2/13 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/13 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/13 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
1/13 – Winners from stall 1
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won two of the last 3 runnings
Irish-trained winners have won 3 of the last 5
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/3

TQ VERDICT: The Ralph Beckett yard took this race 12 months ago and look to have a fair shout again this year with the hat-trick-seeking Fabilis. He’s done little wrong in winning his last two, but this is a big step up in grade. However, it’s also a race the Aidan O’Brien yard have done well in recently – winning two of the last three runnings – so their KYPRIOS might be worth chancing. This once-raced Galileo colt won well on debut at Galway last month but the fact the O’Brien yard are sending him over and upping him in grade suggest they feel there is much more to come. He’s handled soft ground too and the step up to 1m2f should be right up his street with regards to his breeding. Of the rest, Mystery Angel is a course winner that has won it’s last two, but this will be harder. Lone Eagle and Recovery Run are both closely matched on what they’ve done so far, while the Johnston yard won this in 2013 and try again with Roseabad, who is 1-from-1. But the other of interest is the William Haggas runner – BABINDI, who has run two respectable races over 7f so far without winning. The key to this Frankel filly though will be the big step up in trip as she’s been staying on well in her races to suggest it should bring out significant improvement. She also gets a handy 3lbs fillies’ allowance and Tom Marquand has been booked to ride.

2.20 – Emirates Autumn Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV

14/15 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
14/15 – Had won over at least 7f before
13/15 – Had raced at least twice before
13/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/15 – Placed favourites
12/15 – Won between 1-2 times before
11/15 – Won last time out
11/15 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Foaled in Feb or March
9/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Godolphin winners
3/15 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/15 – Ridden by William Buick
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
7 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 3-5
2 of the last 3 winners came from stall 9
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

Note: From 2009 back the race was staged at ASCOT, while the 2005 running was at Salisbury

TQ VERDICT: This race has gone to a Godolphin horse in three of the last four years and they look to have another fair chance of landing it with One Ruler and Dhahabi in the race. Both ran well at Listed level last time out, but of the pair ONE RULER would gets the nod. This Charlie Appleby runner beat another runner – Maximal at Sandown back in August, and despite only managing third last time as the 5/4 favourite, the horse had excuses. He didn’t get the best of runs that day and that would have impacted his chance. Okay, I don’t think he would have won, but the longer trip here (1m) will also help, while the softer ground could also bring out a bit more improvement. Of the rest, I was taken by the way the Brian Meehan runner – AKMAAM – won at Ascot on debut and might just have more to come over this longer trip and he’s got a G1 entry later this month at Donny in the Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes, so is clearly well thought of – jockey Jim Crowley also prefers this one to the other Maktoum runner in the field – Qaader. Frankie and Gosden team-up with Megallan, so will have it’s supporters, but hasn’t really set the world alight from three runs. Latest Generation won well last time and looks the sort to have more to come, while if running it would be hard to ignore the Aidan O’Brien runner – Van Gogh – too.

2.55 - Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

18/18 – Raced at least 3 times that season
16/18 – Yet to race at Newmarket (Rowley)
16/18 – Placed in their last race
14/18 – Won over 7f previously
13/18 – Favourites placed
13/18 – Won at least 3 times previously
13/18 – Won their last race
13/18 – Won a Group race previously
11/18 – Raced at either Goodwood (2), Longchamp (2) or the Curragh (7) last time out
11/18 – Foaled in either Feb or March
10/18 – Won by an Irish-based stable
9/18 – Favourites that won
7/18 – Placed horses that came from stall 2
6/18 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
5/18 – Returned 20/1 or bigger
5/18 – Trained by Jim Bolger
5/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (6 wins in total)
5/18 – Ridden by Kevin Manning
5/18 – Finished in the top 2 in the 2000 Guineas the following season
2/18 – Won the Epsom Derby the following season
1/18 – Winners that came from stall 1
The Irish have won 10 of the last 14 runnings
3 of the last 10 winners came from stall 3
Aidan O’Brien has trained 3 of the last 5 winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

TQ VERDICT: All the talk ahead of this G1 has been for the Richard Hannon runner – Chindt – who has reportedly been flying at home since winning the G2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster. He had the well-regarded Albasheer one length back in second that day and there is every reason to think he can uphold that form. Those against him might look to the softer ground here as this is likely to be the deepest conditions he’s faced, but his connections don’t seem to be too worried about that – he’s certainly a big player. But I just think the proven G1-winning form of the Joseph O’Brien runner – THUNDER MOON – trumps him. This 2 year-old has won both starts in impressive fashion, including last time out when landing the G1 National Stakes at the Curragh. He had another runner – Wembley – 1 ½ lengths back in second that day and now stepped up to a mile there should be even more to come. Of those at bigger prices, the Hannon yard also have a chance with the unbeaten Etonian, who landed the G3 Solario Stakes at Sandown last time out, while Alkumait and Fivethousandtoone are closely-matched based on their first and second in the G2 Mill Reef Stakes last time out.

3.35 – Together For Racing International Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f ITV

17/18 – Aged 4 or older
15/18 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
15/18 – Had run within the last 2 months
14/18 – Carried 9-2 or less
14/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/18 – Finished 4th or better last time out
12/18 – Aged 5 or older
12/18 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
11/18 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
11/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/18 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
9/18 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
9/18 – Had run at the track before
9/18 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price
9/18 – Won by a NH trainer
8/18 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
8/18 – Placed favourites
4/18 – Winning mares
3/18 – Winners from stall 1
3/18 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
3/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/18 – Trained by Willie Mullins (last 2 winners)
2/18 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 22/1
Just 2 winning favourites since 1993

TQ VERDICT: Plenty of trends to hopefully narrow down the 35 runners here in the Cesarewitch Handicap. With 17 of the last 18 winners aged 4 or older then the 3 year-olds – Coltrane and Arthurian Fable – have this is overcome. 14 of the last 18 winners also carried 9-2 or less, so that would rule out the top nine on the card – including the likes of Summer Moon, Rock Eagle, Cleonte and Not So Sleepy. 12 of the last 18 winners were also aged 5 or older and finished fourth or better in their last race. Of those not already ruled out – this would be a plus for WHIRLING DERVISH, JUKEBOX JIVE, LYNWOOD GOLD, SMART CHAMPION, AUTHOR’S DREAM, TRUE DESTINY, LEONCAVALLO, LEVER DU SOLEIL and LIGHTLY SQUEEZED. However, it’s also a race the Willie Mullins yard have won for the last two years, so their GREAT WHITE SHARK (e/w) will be popular and gets in off a light 8st 6lbs – Jason Watson, who teamed-up with Mullins in this race last year is also a plus in the saddle and he heads here fit and well after a win over hurdles at Galway at the end of July. We know he stays and acts on the ground so points to another a big run. Another top Irish trainer – Dermot Weld – has a runner too – DALTON HIGHWAY (e/w) – and he’s booked Tom Marquand to ride. He probably found the 1m6f a tad on the sharp side last time out but has past form that ties him in closely with the Mullins horse, while the longer trip and softer ground are ideal. Others to consider are Leoncavallo, who bolted-up at Haydock over 1m6f last time out and won over 2m5f the time before over fences. He’s a versatile sort that is in great heart at the moment. Mondain and True Destiny can go well too, but the other pick is FUTURE INVESTMENT (e/w). This Ralph Beckett runner was a good winner over 2m at Chester two runs back but probably found the drop back to 1m6f against him last time at Haydock. He’d probably want the ground to dry out a tiny bit, but has a consistent profile from his 10 runs (7 top three finishes) and could have more to offer now upped in trip.

 

York Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

2.00 – coral.co.uk Rockingham Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

17/17– Had raced within the last month
16/17 – Had won between 1 and 3 times before
14/17 – Foaled in March or later
14/17 – Had 4 or more runs that season
13/17 – Had never raced at York before
12/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
12/17 – Had won over 6f before
10/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Unplaced last time out
8/17 – Ran at either Redcar (6) or Newbury (2) last time out
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Winners from stall 2
4/17 – Filly winners
3/17 – Placed horses from stall 1
3/17 – Trained by Tim Easterby
3/17 – Ridden by David Allen
The  horse from stall 6 has won 5 of the last 10 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

TQ VERDICT: Ben Macdui has been placed at Listed and G3 level already and would have a big chance again, but I’d just be a tad worried about the step up from 5f to 6f as he’s been looking like running out of petrol for me over the minimum trip. Internationaldream is another with good form in the book, while Light Refrain, Harmony Lil and Blackrod were all good winners last time out. Legal Attack should find this easier than the G3 he contested in France last time and should be in the mix, but the call is to side for the unexposed REGIONAL. This Richard Fahey-trained 2 year-old was a nice winner on debut at Pontefract over 5f, but that’s a stiff track and last time at Ayr wasn’t disgraced when 1 ½ lengths fourth to Winter Power in a Listed race. I feel the longer trip here is a what he’s been crying out for and having fluffed the start a big last time too could have got even closer.

2.35 –Coral Beaten By A Length Handicap (96 Plus Race) Cl2 1m2f88y ITV

Just seven previous runnings
7/7 – Rated between 96-103
6/7 -  Returned 10/1 or shorter
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Won over at least 1m2f before
5/7  - Aged 3 years-old
5/7 – Carried 9-0 or more
5/7 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
5/7 – Unplaced last time out
4/7 – Unplaced last time out
4/7 – Had run at the track before
4/7 – Ridden by Franny Norton (2) or Adam Kirby (2)
4/7 – Irish bred
0/7 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 4 winners came from stall 8
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 8/1

TQ VERDICT: Crystal Pegasus battled on well to win it’s race at Yarmouth last month and off just 4lbs higher should make another bold bid for the Sir Michael Stoute yard, who won this race in 2016. Matthew Flinders and Iconic Choice are others that won well last time out, while there should be more to come from the bottom weight Spirit Dancer. If this was being run at Ayr, then Glasses Up would have a say too – he does most of his winning there! So, having said all this, it’s hard to get away from the William Haggas runner – ILARAAB, who has won his last four. Yes, he’s up another 5lbs here but cold still be ahead of the handicapper as he’s only just been doing enough in his races to win. He acts on any ground and this 1m2f trip is fine too. I think the danger can come from the already mentioned SPIRIT DANCER though. The Richard Fahey yard won this race 12 months ago and the softer ground today looks a bonus as he won well with give two runs ago. He’s only got 1 ¾ to find with the pick backs on coming third to that horse at Wolves back in August, but has clearly improved since then and should not be far behind.

3.10 – Coral Sprint Trophy (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

17/17 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
17/17 – Had won at least 3 races before
16/17 – Had run at York before
16/17 – Had won a race over 6f before
15/17 – Had raced 6 or more times that season
13/17 – Aged 5 or younger
12/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
9/17 – Rated between 92 and 98
9/17 – Carried 9-1 or less
8/17 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
5/17 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/17 – Trained by Kevin Ryan (2 of the last 3 winners)
2/17 – Trained by Michael Dods
1/17 – Filly or mare winners
4 of the last 11 winners were ridden by a claiming apprentice
Gulliver (16/1) won the race in 2019
Major Jumbo (12/1) won the race in 2018
Teruntum Star (10/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1

TQ VERDICT: Gulliver was a nice winner of this race last year but has lost his way a bit this season and is still 2lbs higher than 12 months ago – he can’t be totally ruled out but recent runs suggest he needs to bounce back. Came From The Light and CD winner Roulston Star are both recent winners that will have their supporters. The last two winners of the race came from stall 5, so Staxton will be hoping to add to that, but after a couple of good wins earlier in the season looks a bit high in the handicap for me. Aplomb, Tranchee and Greenside are others that have been running well of late so have to be noted, but with the Kevin Ryan yard having won 2 of the last 3 renewals their runners are interesting – Hey Jonesy, MAGICAL SPIRIT (e/w) and BIELSA (e/w), with preference for the last two. Magical Spirit was a winner at Ayr last time out and despite a big-looking 10lb hike for that, he did it well (3 ½ lengths) and could well cope with the rise in the ratings. Bielsa, who is drawn 18, was only beaten 3 lengths in the Ayr Gold Cup last time out and a further 2lb drop in the handicap means he’s starting to look very dangerous – considering he was rated 101 in the summer and is now off a mark of 97. Softer ground is also fine and there is no reason why this track won’t suit on his first outing here. The final one to get a mention is SOLIDER’S MINUTE (e/w), who also ran well in the Ayr Gold Cup (4th). This Keith Dalgleish runner is only a pound higher, but is a proven CD winner at the track and draw 15 will give jockey, Callum Rodriguez options.

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