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28th November 2020

Saturday Racing Tips and Trends: 14th November 2020

One of the highlights of the jump calendar this Saturday as we've day two of the Cheltenham November Meeting - four LIVE ITV races to take in from Prestbury Park that include the Paddy Power Gold Cup, while we've also two decent Listed races at Lingfield as the AW winter season starts to move up a few notches.

Did you know that 12 of the last 18 BetVictor Gold Cup winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old?

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at TQ with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get  GOING!

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

1.40 – From The Horse’s Mouth Podcast Novices´ Chase Cl2 3m80y RacingTV

15/15 – Had won a race over at least 2m4f (fences) before
12/15 – Aged 7 or younger
12/15 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
12/15 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
11/15 – Won between 0-1 times over fences before
11/15 – Raced no more than twice over fences
11/15 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
10/15 – Raced at Cheltenham (4), Aintree (3) or Wetherby (2) last time out
8/15 – Aged 6 years-old
8/15 – Irish bred
7/15 – Went onto run in the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival that season (no winners)
7/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Trained by David Pipe
3/15 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/15 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan

TQ VERDICT: A nice renewal of this Novice Chase, as we get a chance to see several stars of the future strutting their stuff. The Henry De Bromhead yard came over to take this race with their talented mare – Put The Kettle On – last year so the fact they are sending Zarkareva over is interesting. This 4 year-old filly won her last two starts over fences and gets weight off all the others so that will bring her right into the mix. She stays further than this 2m trip too and has acted well on good and softer ground. GUMBALL (e/w) did it well at Uttoxeter last time out on only his second run over fences and can’t be ruled out with the Hobbs yard starting to show signs of some form, plus the yard won this race in 2014 and 2015 – he could be the e/w play in the race, but note there are only 6 runners. He’s also closely-rated with the Tizzard runner – Eldorado Allen, who beat Stormy Island last time on his chase debut. However, the form of that win took a knock in the week with the runner-up beaten again, so I’d be a tad cautious.  Le Patriote is a course winner over hurdles here and won well over fences at Market Rasen last time, but this will be harder. The one to beat is probably the Henderson horse – Fusil Raffles – after winning well at Uttoxeter and here at Cheltenham last time out. That course experience is a big plus and he jumped well – he can only get better so it’s hard to crab his chance. However, it’s interesting that Paul Nicholls is pitching his QUEL DESTIN into a race like this on his chasing debut, so that could be significant. This 150+ rated hurdler has also won at the course before and did well to win on the flat at Bath last month so should be spot-on for this. He’s sure to have been well-schooled and with that last run coming off the back of a wind op then he could have more to give over fences. He gets a handy 3lbs from the Henderson horse too, so if his jumping holds up can go well for the currently red-hot Nicholls camp.

 

2.15 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

18/18 – Had run at Cheltenham before
17/18 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences before
17/18 – Won by a UK-based trainer
14/18 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Carried 11st or less
12/18 – Had won at Cheltenham before
12/18 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/18 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
12/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/18 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (2) or Twiston-Davies (3)
9/18 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting
9/18 – Aged 7 years-old
8/18 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
8/18 – Placed favourites
5/18 – Won their last race
4/18 – Trained by the Pipe stable
4/18 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/18 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
3/18 – Ran at Carlisle last time out
2/18 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/18 – Irish-trained winners
The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled 10 placed horses (two winners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 39 runners
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 10/1

TQ VERDICT: One of the big early season jumping highlights and, as always, we’ve got a super-competitive card heading to post. Last year the Kerry Lee-trained Happy Diva won the race and she’ll be looking to be become the first back-to-back winner since Bradbury Star (93 &94). She’s rated 8lbs higher this time though so will need to find more and actually hasn’t won a race (5 runs) since taking this 12 months ago. It’s a race that in recent years has been dominated by the O’Neill, Nicholls, Pipe and Twiston-Davies yards – between them, they’ve won 11 of the last 18. This year Pipe runs SIRUH DU LAC, Nicholls has BRELAN D’AS and SAINT SONNET, Twiston-Davies runs AL DANCER, while O’Neill has SKY PIRATE entered – they should all be respected. Looking at that lot the Nicholls main runner – Saint Sonnet – was a fair 7th in the Marsh Chase at the Festival, behind Samcro, in March and with just three runs over fences can be expected to have more to come. However, that lack of experience in a race like this would still be a negative for me. Al Dancer was a good winner last month at Newton Abbot so might be fitter than most, but he’s prone to the odd mistake and that would concern me, while even though the NTD yard often do well at this meeting, they have been a tad quiet in recent weeks too. Pipe’s Siruh Du Lac runs for the first time for the yard after coming from the Nick Williams team. He’s was running a big race at the Festival in the Brown Advisory and Merribelle Chase in March – a race he won in 2019 too, so the track is fine, while he’s gone well off a break in the past too. The Pipe yard are also in good order at the moment so if his jumping holds out has to enter the mix with 50% of the last 18 winners also aged 7! The winner of that Brown Advisory Chase was Simply The Betts and it’s no secret that the Harry Whittington yard think a lot of this 7 year-old. He’s 2-from-2 over fences at the course and has won 4 of this 5 runs over the biggest obstacles now. This horse is certainly a big player and should be bang there, but is up another 8lbs from his last run so would need to improve again. Slate House, Spiritofthegames and Fidux are three bigger-priced runners to note, but the main call here is MISTER FISHER. Yes, the Henderson yard have only won this race once (Fondmont, 2003), but I’m not reading too much into that. This 6 year-old was last seen running well to be fourth in the G1 Marsh Chase at the Festival in March – beaten only 4 ¼ lengths to Samcro – and that looks the best form on offer to me. He’s only had four runs over fences so that lack of experience is a bit of a worry, but at least he’s run here at Prestbury Park in two of those – winning one. With another summer on his back he should be a better horse and he also beat Al Dancer last January at Doncaster so can hopefully have the measure of that horse again. Nico de Boinville rides. Of the rest, I’ll have a small each-way interest in the Jonjo O’Neill runner – SKY PIRATE (e/w) – too, mainly due to the yard’s fair record in the race and the fact he gets in here with just 10-2 to carry. Yes, he’s not won a race over fences (9 runs) but has been second 5 times, but this will be the lightest racing weight he’s run with and that will, of course, help a lot.

2.50 – Paddy Power 3PM Kick Off Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f67y ITV

16/18 – Aged 7 or younger
15/18 – Carried 10-11 or less in weight
15/18 – Had between 2 and 5 previous hurdles wins
14/18 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
13/18 – Officially rated 126 to 137
13/18 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
12/18 – Placed favourites
13/18  – Ran at either Cheltenham (7), Aintree (3) or Chepstow (3) last time out
12/18 – Irish bred
12/18 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
11/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/18 – Had run at Cheltenham before
8/18 – Won their last race
7/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/18 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
4/18 – Won by the Pipe stable
1/18 – Won by an Irish-trained stable
5 of the last 12 winners have had a claiming jockey riding
Anteros won the race in 2016 & was second in 2017
First Assignment won the race in 2018
Golan Fortune won the race in 2019

TQ VERDICT: With 16 of the last 18 winners of this race aged 7 or younger, so On The Blind Side, Dell’ Arca, Tobefair and Golan Fortune are overlooked, despite all four being proven course winners. The Suzy Smith runner DEBESTYMAN (e/w) ran a cracker here last time out when second to Captain Tom Cat and is only 3lbs higher. The longer trip should be fine and in this better race gets in here with only 10st to carry. The Kim Bailey yard are going well during this first half of the season, so their Dandy Dan is another big player, but it’s hard to get away from the Tom Lacey entry – TEA CLIPPER. This 5 year-old was very impressive last time out at Chepstow and has now won 4 of this 5 hurdles starts. He’s rising up the ranks fast and could have more to give now upped in trip too. Yes, this will be the furthest he’s gone by just over half a mile, but he’s been running like it will suit and he’s also up 7lbs from last time – but he should also relish the conditions and looks the most progressive horse in the race that could be destined for bigger and better things going forward.

3.25 – Paddy Power First Millionaire Qualifier Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f26y ITV

13/15 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
13/15 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
12/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/15 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
8/15 – Returned a double-figure price
7/15 – Favourites unplaced
7/15 – Carried 10-13 or less
7/15 – Had run at Cheltenham before
7/15 – Irish bred winners
6/15 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a race at the Cheltenham Festival
6/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – French bred winners
2/15 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 - Winning favourites
2 of the last 7 winners went onto be placed in the Martin Pipe Conditionals race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
2 of the last 11 winners went onto be placed in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season

TQ VERDICT: The Kim Bailey runner – Shinobi – was very impressive at Wincanton last time out but this is a hike up in grade so would need more for me. It’s hard to fault Captain Tom Cat, who has won his last three, including here over this CD last time. A good run from Debestyman in the previous race would add to his chance – he’s 6lbs higher here but should make a bold bid to land the four-timer. Kepage is another that’s done little wrong of late – winning his last three and heads here off the back of a wind op too. The Pipe yard are going well too, but the only niggle would be all his wins coming with a lot more give underfoot – soft or worse. So that leaves me with SON OF CAMAS. This horse was touted to be a lot better than he is today during the early part of his career, but he’s still only 5 years-old and there are strong vibes the horse is very well after a recent wind op. He was last seen being pulled up in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle here but this time last year beat King Roland well at Newbury so clearly has ability. He could be ready to kick-on now and fulfil the hype that has surrounded him as off a mark of 133 could easily be thrown in here – we’ll see! Topofthecotswolds and Whatsupwithyou can do best of the rest.

 

3.55 – Karndean Designflooring Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) C1 (4-6 year-olds) 2m 1/2f

 8/8 – GB (5) or Irish (3) bred
7/8 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/8 – Won at least once before in a NH Flat race
6/8 – Won last time out
6/8 – Had never raced at Cheltenham before
5/8 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
4/8 – Unplaced favourites
4/8 – Returned 14/1 or bigger in the betting
2/8 – Winning favourites
2/8 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in recent years is 11/1

Note: The 2016 running was a dead-heat

TQ VERDICT: Probably not a race to go mad in with a lot of tall reputations on the line for this Mares’ Only bumper. It’s hard to fault the win of the Dan Skelton runner – Elle Est Belle – who bolted up in a good race at Aintree last month and she’s probably the one to beat. However, I was also taken by the win of the Anthony Honeyball runner – UCANAVER – who was a 20-length scorer at Fontwell in October. Yes, it’s hard to know what she beat that day but was still visually impressive and should make another bold bid from the front. That win came over 1m5 ½ furlongs so is up 3 furlongs, but that’s not a huge worry. She’s clearly got plenty of pace too and could easily get the others at it a long way out if running a similar race to last time – Harry Cobden is also an interesting jockey booking for this yard, who have had some big Saturdays in recent weeks. Ishkhara Lady and Allavina are others to note in the betting, but with the Fergal O’Brien and Alan King yards having fair strike-rates in these races at the track then their entries – ALL CLENCHED UP, LADY JANE P and COLOURS OF MY LIFE could go well of those at bigger prices.

 

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)


3.05 – Betway Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

12/14 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Rated between 102 and 112
11/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
10/14 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/14 – Won between 1-4 times before
9/14 – Favourites placed in the top two
9/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/14 – Placed last time out
9/14 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
4/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
Master The World (10/1) won the race in 2017 and 2018

TQ VERDICT: CD winner Palavecino and the William Haggas runner – Sinjaari – should make a bold bid, but both have a lot to find on these terms with the John Gosden runner – DUBAI WARRIOR. This 4 year-old is the clear top-rated in the field (114) and has 9lbs in-hand on Palavecino to suggest even if he runs a bit below-par should still have enough. He’s also a CD winner at the track and is in fact 2-from-2 at the Surrey venue. It will be a shock if he’s not taking this £15k first prize.

3.40 – Betway Golden Rose Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV

12/13 – Previous winner over 6f or 7f
12/13 – Didn’t win last time out
11/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Aged 4 or older
10/13 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Won 5 or more times before
9/13 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
9/13 – Unplaced last time out
8/13 – Unplaced favourites
4/13 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/13 – Winning favourites
Gifted Master (9/2) won the race in 2017
Encrypted won the race in 2018
Judicial won the race in 2019

TQ VERDICT: The consistent Judicial won this race 12 months ago so has to be respected, but it won’t be easy giving 5lbs away to the improving GOOD EFFORT. This 5 year-old is rising up the sprinting ranks quickly and heads here having won his last four! The last of those was a smooth handicap win over 5f here but he’s just as good – maybe better – over this longer 6f trip. Draw 3 looks perfect too and with that last run also coming off a break he should be spot on for taking on this better company. Of the rest, Godolphin’s On The Warpath is another to note but needs to bounce back from a poor run at Newmarket last time out, while Soldier’s Minute, Tinto, Jovial and Sunday Star are all rated 100+ so if getting the breaks and finding a bit of improvement can’t be discounted either.

 

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