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28th November 2020

Saturday Racing Tips and Trends: 21st November 2020

Another decent day of jump racing ahead this Saturday with the ITV cameras heading to Ascot and Haydock to take in seven races across the two venues. The Chanelle Pharma 1965 Chase and the Coral Hurdle are the feature races from Ascot, while a star-studded field line-up for the Betfair Chase at Haydock.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on TQ with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

2.05 – Chanelle Pharma 1965 Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f8y ITV

16/17 – Aged 8 or younger
14/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
13/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
12/17 – Favourites placed
12/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
12/17 – Had won over this trip (fences) 2m5f or further before
11/17 – Ran at Aintree (4) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
10/17 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
9/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
9/17 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
8/17 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
8/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Aged 5 years-old
3/17 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Won by trainer Alan King
2/17 – Won by trainer Philip Hobbs
2/17 – Went onto win at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Albertas Run & Vautour, RyanAir Chase 2009 & 2016)
Cyrname won the race in 2019
Politologue won the race in 2018
Top Notch won the race in 2017
Note: The 2002 running was at Wincanton and the 2004 renewal at Windsor

TQ VERDICT: Just the four runners here, but a cracking little race with all the runners sure to have their supporters. Imperial Aura is a fast-improving chaser that was a Cheltenham Festival winner last season and returned earlier his month with a top win at Carlisle. From the in-form Kim Bailey yard and a chaser that is clearly going the right way but is up again in grade here so will need another step forward being rated 9lbs lower than REAL STEEL. This last-named horse is another that the Paul Nicholls yard have got from the Willie Mullins yard and his sixth in the Gold Cup last season would make him the one to beat here. Yes, he returns from an 8-month break, but he won first time out last season and his overall record when fresh is a good one. The ratings suggest he’s the one to beat and with 5 chase wins from 11 starts is a horse that knows how to get his head in front. Nicholls also has the consistent Black Corton in the race and he’s sure to have his backers too – especially getting 6lbs off his stablemate. He ran well for much of the way in the Sodexo Gold Cup here last time over 3m so the drop in trip is a plus and should be better for that too. He’s the only course winner in the field and should go well – the only niggle for me is that he just doesn’t win enough. He’s now won just one of his last 15. Itchy Feet makes up the four and he’d had a squeak too – if finding a bit of improvement. A good Novice last season and he returned to run well in the Old Roan Chase (3rd) at Aintree last month. The step up slightly in trip will suit and he’ll be fine on the soft ground. He should have more to come, but being rated 11lbs inferior to Real Steel (does receive 3lbs), does have a bit still to find at this stage of his career.

 2.40 - Coral Hurdle (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV

18/18 – Priced 7/2 or less
16/18 – Won over at least 2m 1/2f (hurdles) previously
15/18 – Won a Grade 2 (or better) hurdle race previously
15/18 – Won by and Irish (12) or French (3) bred horse
14/18 – Favourites placed
11/18 – Won their latest race
11/18 – Won by a horse aged 7 or older
11/18 – Won a Grade 1 hurdle race previously
11/18 – Had their last race 3 months or longer ago
10/18 – Favourites that won (2 joint)
11/18 – Won between 3-5 times over hurdles previously
6/18 – Went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle after winning this (1 won)
5/18 – Went onto race in the Champion Hurdle that same season (4 of 5 finished 4th or better, Faugheen won both renewals in 2014-15
6/18 – Won a hurdles race at Ascot previously
4/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/18 – Won by the Willie Mullins stable
4 of the last 14 winners were Irish-trained
If The Cap Fits won the race in 2018 & 2019
Lil Rockerfeller won the race in 2017
Note: the 2004 & 2005 renewals were at Windsor

TQ VERDICT: Another small but select field here with just three runners, but all eyes will be on another Paul Nicholls runner – LAURINA, who is yet another ex-Willie Mullins runner that is now housed at Dicheat. This talented mare does, however, have a bit to prove at present after being a beaten favourite the last three times. But the change of scenery and having had a recent wind op give hope she can recapture that old er form and being a mare, she also gets a handy weight allowance – 13lbs! Trip and ground are fine and she’s another that’s gone well fresh, so the long break doesn’t worry me too much. Call Me Lord and Song For Someone make up the trio and are certainly no back-numbers. Both are more than capable of mixing it up and are sure to give Laurina a race if the Nicholls mare turns up in-form. Call Me Lord returned recently with a fair fourth in a good race at Aintree but he’s a funny horse for me. Clearly talented, but a hard one to catch right and is not the most consistent. He’s rated 154 – the same as Laurina – but having to give the Nicholls runner 13lbs swings things in the favour of Laurina. Song For Someone was last seen winning the Kingwell Hurdle at Kempton back in February and is an improving hurdler – for sure. He’s another that’s gone well off a break in the past and the soft ground is fine. He would have to prove himself over this slightly longer trip though and even though he’s certainly a hurdler to note this season, that might be the only concern this time – all his wins to date have been over 2m1f or less.

3.17 – Coral Hurst Handicap Chase Cl2 2m192y ITV

13/14 – Aged between 6 and 9 years-old
13/14 – Had won over fences over this trip (or further) before
12/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/14 – Carried 11-0 or more
9/14 – Rated 142 or higher
8/14 – Ran at either Ascot (4) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
8/14 – Had raced at Ascot before
7/14 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/14 – Placed favourites
6/14 – Placed horses from the Paul Nicholls yard
4/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Aged 6 years-old
4/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Trained by Gary Moore
Capeland won the race in 2019
Caid du Lin won the race in 2018

TQ VERDICT: The 13 year-old – Gino Trial – is still going at his grand old age, and should make a bold bid from the front, but he’s likely to find some of the younger legs too good here. The Skelton runner – Amoola Gold was a good winner over this CD last time out and can go well, but a 6lb rise here makes life harder. First Flow is another that likes to race up with the pace and he represents the in-form Kim Bailey yard, so if getting into a rhythm might be hard to peg back and is certainly one for the shortlist. We’ve a couple of decent Irish raiders in the race too – Drumconnor Lad and Abbey Magic – and you can be sure these two are not just coming over for a day trip. Both are fit and well from recent wins and of the pair the De Bromhead runner – ABBEY MAGIC – is one to support. She’s won four of her 5 chase starts and acts on all ground. She also stays further than this trip and that proven stamina will be a big asset in what’s likely to be testing ground – she’s normally ridden by Rachael Blackmore and connections are keeping the ‘girl power’ connection with Bryony Frost booked to ride. But it’s also a race the Paul Nicholls yard do well in, and they’ve got a strong hand again here with recent Cheltenham winner – Magic Saint and the winner of this race last year – Capeland. The former is up 7lbs from that last win though and jockey Bryan Carver can only claim 3lbs here and not the 5lbs he could last week. So, I’d prefer to stick with CAPELAND, who does need to bounce back from unseating last time out at Ascot, but will be better for the run and despite being rated 7lbs higher this year, did win this race by an easy 12 lengths last season. The first-time cheekpieces are an interesting addition too and Harry Cobden returns to the saddle.

3.50 – Coral Supporting Prostate Cancer UK Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race 1m7 1/2f ITV

10/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Aged 4 years-old
6/10 – Had had a run before
6/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Had run in the last 4 weeks
4/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 25% record with his NH Flat runners at the track

TQ VERDICT: Not a race to get too heavily involved in as many are lightly-raced, plus those that have run it will be hard to know how much they’ve improved. It goes without saying the market will be a good guide too and with big yards like Henderson, Tizzard and Nicholls having entries. Henderson has two runners – one of which is one for the Queen – Hamilton’s Fantasy, but jockey bookings suggest the Nico de Boinville runner – Wraysford – is their more fancied – we’ll see. But I’ll take a chance on the Paul Nicholls runner – KANDOO KID. The yard have a decent 25% record with their NH Flat runners at the track and Harry Cobden also has a good strike-rate in these races. This 4 year-old is yet to run but you can expect Nicholls to have had a few options here so this one must be showing up well enough at home.

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.15 Back And Lay On Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase Cl2 (4 yo+) 2m 5 1/2f RTV

9/9 – 0-2 wins over fences
8/9 – Returned 7/2 or shorter
8/9 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
7/9 – Placed in the top 2 last time out
7/9 – Rated between 144-148
6/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/9 – 0-2 runs over fences before
4/9 – Won last time out
4/9- - Winning favourites
2/9 – Ridden by Harry Cobden
2/9 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
Keeper Hill won the race 12 months ago

TQ VERDICT: A tight-looking renewal of this Graduation Chase. Ravenhill Road and Dashel Drasher are both proven CD winners at the track so have that as a plus, but it’s hard to get away from the record of trainer Paul Nicholls in the race – he’s won the prize 6 times in the last 9 years. He pins his hopes on MASTER TOMMYTUCKER this year and after a smooth win at Huntingdon last time out heads here in tip-top order. He’s a horse that likes to get on with things from the front and his jumping has not always been the best, but he’s still very lightly-raced (8 runs) for his age so could still getting to grips with chasing. The signs in his last two runs are that his jumping is improving and the form of his second behind Al Dancer last month is solid with that horse running well in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last weekend. Of the rest, the Twiston-Davies runner – Good Boy Bobby – might be the one to give the pick most to think about after a nice return win at Banger, while Deyrann De Carjac and Commanche Red make up the field, with the former interesting on the pick of his form last season.

 

1.50 – Betfair Racing Only Bettor Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3f ITV

8/9 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
8/9 – Had won between 1-2 times before
7/9 – Irish bred
7/9 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
7/9 – Had won over at least 2m2f before
7/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/9 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
3/9 – Ridden by a conditional claiming jockey
3/9 – Winning favourites
Bold Plan won the race in 2019
Black Mischief won the race in 2018
Limited Reserve won the race in 2017

TQ VERDICT: 17 runners head to post here in a very tricky race to unravel. It’s a contest, however, that’s seen a 5 or 6 year-old win in 7 of the last 9 years and that should help narrow down the runners – of the 17 entries 10 fit the bill – KAIZER, ENDLESSLY, EBONY JEWEL, SHAKEM UP’ARRY, WAR LORD, OUR POWER, ARRIVECERCI, FIX SUN, UMBRIGADO and KID COMMANDO. With 7 of the last 9 winners also carrying 11st 10lbs or more in weight then of those 10 runners we are left with six – WAR LORD, OUR POWER, ARRIVECERCI, FIX SUN, UMBRIGADO and KID COMMANDO. Of that bunch, the Anthony Honeyball runner – Kid Commando – was a nice winner at Ascot last time out and should go well, but it’s worth noting he’s up 7lbs for that and also up 3 furlongs in trip here so does have slightly different conditions. With that in mind, I’d prefer to stick with the Jonjo O’Neill runner – ARRIVECERCI to say ‘goodbye’ to his rivals. This 5 year-old was a nice winner at Wetherby last time out over this trip and also had War Lord back in second that day. He’s expected to confirm that running despite being up 8lbs this time as I feel there should be a bit more improvement to come still with that last run coming off a 301-day break – the yard also won this race in 2013 with their classy More Of That. Of the rest, the Pipe runner UMBRIGADO (e/w) is also worth chancing. He was last seen running down the field in the Martin Pipe race at the Cheltenham Festival, but is a pound lower but also has a 7lb claimer on here. He ran well at Haydock on this day 12 months ago off a break too and looks the sort to have benefitted from the summer off and hails from a yard that have been doing well this month.

 

2.25 - Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ½f ITV

14/15– Aged between 5 and 7 years-old
14/15 – Had won between 1-3 times (hurdles UK) before
13/15 – Carried 10-9 or more
12/15 – Rated between 132 and 143
10/15 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner, Paisley Park 2019)
9/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
8/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – French bred
6/15 – Had raced at Haydock before
3/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/15 – Trained by David Pipe
2/15 – Trained by Nick Williams
Stoney Mountain won the race in 2019
Paisley Park won the race in 2018
Sam Spinner won the race in 2017

TQ VERDICT: Some good winners of this race in recent years so it will be interesting to see how this year’s winner progresses. It’s a competitive renewal though but the key will be getting home in what is likely to be testing conditions. With that in mind the Irish raider – THE JAM MAN – who won well over 3m at Navan last time out gets the nod. This improving horse won by an easy 18 lengths the last day and prior to that came over to win a nice staying handicap at York so travelling isn’t an issue. Connections also have a claiming jockey on (5lbs) and that will be an added bonus. With a lot of the others having potential but also questions to answer over this trip then I’d prefer to stick with a horse we know will get home. Pipe’s Main Fact has won his last 8 races (flat and hurdles) so is another that punters will latch onto and he’s run like this 3m trip is within range. The likely favourite will be the Fergal O’Brien runner – Imperial Alcazar – who has won two of his four hurdles runs and should have more to come, but he’s another that will be trying this trip for the first time. Third Wind and Collooney are others to consider, while the former Cheltenham bumper winner (2018) – Relegate would be interesting on his best form. But the other one I’ll take a chance on is the Amy Murphy runner – KALASHNIKOV (e/w). This useful hurdler didn’t quite go on over fences despite winning three times so it could be a good move to run him back over hurdles. He was a close second in the 2018 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and is worth a try over this longer trip. He’s still only 7 and we know he loves the soft ground, while a recent wind op could spark some further improvement.

 

3.00 - Betfair Chase (Registered as The Lancashire Chase) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m 1 1/2f ITV

15 Previous runnings
13/15 - Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
12/15 - Raced within the last 4 weeks
12/15 – Won by and Irish (4) or French (8) bred horse
12/15 - Placed in the top three in their last race
12/15 - Won a Grade One chase previously
11/15 - Raced at Haydock previously
10/15 - Officially rating of 168 or higher
10/15 – Favourites placed
8/15 – Aged 8 or older
8/15 - Winning distance - 2 ½ lengths or less
7/15 - Raced at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall last time out
7/15 – Won by a previous winner of the race
7/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Won their latest race
4/15 - Raced at Aintree last time out
Lostintranslation won this in 2019
Bristol De Mai won this in 2017 and 2018
The average winning price in the last 15 runnings is 5/1
The Paul Nicholls yard has won the prize in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 & 2014
The Nigel Twiston-Davies yard has won the prize in 2010, 2017 and 2018 
The Colin Tizzard yard has won the race in 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2019

TQ VERDICT: Just the five runners, but a stellar cast with last year’s winner Lostintranslation, the 2017 and 2018 hero, Bristol De Mai and the two-time King George winner – Clan Des Obeaux – in attendance – it will be a big shock if the winner isn’t coming from one of these three, with Keeper Hill and Bellshill, useful on their day, making up the five runners. For me, we all know Bristol De Mai loves it here at Haydock – he’s won here four times over fences! But it would be a worry that his last win was in this race in 2018 and that’s a while ago now, while he was well behind Lostintranslation in the Gold Cup last time out in March. I think that if this race was at Kempton then Clan Des Obeaux would certainly be getting my pick. Yes, he’s won here at Haydock, but he seems a much better horse at Kempton and this really should get him spot-on for a tilt at winning a third King George on Boxing Day. So that leaves me with LOSTINTRANSLATION. This Colin Tizzard runner is rated 171 (the same as Clan Des Obeaux) and relishes soft/heavy ground. The yard have won four of the last 7 runnings and the form of his close third in the Gold Cup last time is the best on offer. He beat Bristol De Mai by 1 ½ lengths last year but you feel it could have been more and always looked in control. The only niggle was that he’d had a run before winning this last season but his record fresh is a good one and with recent winners of this race having a good record of following up, then I’ll take him to continue that trend.

 

3.35 – My Odds Boost On Betair Stayers’ Handicap Chase Cl3 (4yo+ 0-135) 3m 4 1/2f ITV

8/9 – Aged 8 or younger
8/9 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – Aged between 7-8 years-old
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
7/9 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
7/9 – Rated between 129-135
6/9 – Unplaced last time out
6/9 – Carried 11st 9lbs or more
6/9 – Won between 1-2 times fences
2/9 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/9 – Winning favourites

TQ VERDICT: A competitive staying chase here so stamina and getting home will be key in this soft ground. Oldtimers, Perfect Candidate and Pobbles Bay are the two proven distance winners in the field, while the 11 year-old Don Poli, who ran well last time (4th) at Aintree should love this test. But with 8 of the last 9 winners aged 8 or younger then we’ve only a few that fit the bill – KINGS MONARCH, FINANCIAL OUTCOME (e/w) and FORTIFIED BAY (e/w), so a the prices there might not be any harm in having an interest in all three. The first-named looks to have the best chance having won well at Ffos Las last time out and a 5lb rise might not be enough to stop this Kerry Lee runner. He has another of the picks – Financial Outcome – just 2 ½ lengths back that day so on slightly better terms there shouldn’t be a lot between them. Fortified Bay will need to run better than last time but that was his first run back since February and he’s normally a horse that takes a race or two to blow away the cobwebs – we can expect better this time.

 

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