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28th November 2020

Saturday Racing Tips and Trends: 7th November 2020

This Saturday the ITV cameras head to Wincanton with the Badger Ales Chase, their feature, plus they are also at Doncaster for the ultra-competitive November Handicap and also take in one of the Aintree contests as always here at TQ we've got all the trends and stats for the LIVE races….. 

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

1.30 – Bombardier Golden Beer Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

14/16 – Had at least 6 previous runs that season
14/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Had won over 6f before
13/16 – Won from stall 12 or lower
13/16 – Rated 99 or higher
13/16 – Aged 4 or older
11/16 – Had won at least 5 times before in their career
9/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
8/16 – Had won at Doncaster before
8/16 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
5/16 – Ran at York (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
3/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Winning mare/filly
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor

TQ VERDICT: Son Of Rest shot to fame after winning the 2018 Ayr Gold Cup, but has struggled a bit since so is overlooked this time. Gulliver bounced back to form last time with a win at York, but this will be harder up into Listed company. CD winners Bernardo O’Reilly and Aberama Gold have form at the track so can’t be discounted either, but the three main runners here look to be Dakota Gold, Ostillo and BRANDO. The first two both head here on three-timers and are clearly sprinters at the top of their game, but having to give weight away to the 8 year-old BRANDO might just prove too much. This Kevin Ryan-trained sprinter is having his 45th career run here and despite his advancing years showed he still retains a lot of ability after his head second in the G1 Champion Sprint Stakes at Ascot last time out. Yes, the time before that he was just under 5 lengths behind Dakota Gold, but is 5lbs better off this time and he fluffed the start that day too.

 

2.05 – Betfair Exchange British EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

13/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/15 – Had won at least twice before
12/15 – Had 3 or more runs that season
11/15 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
9/15 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
8/15 – Ran at either Lingfield (3), Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
8/15 – Had won over 1m2f before
8/15 – Returned 8/1 or bigger in the betting
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
6/15 – Won by an Irish-bred filly
2/15 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/15 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/15 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/15 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12/1

Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor

TQ VERDICT: An open-looking Listed race, but it’s one the Ralph Beckett yard have done well in before so it’s interesting they are mob-handed with three runners – CHAMADE, LADY SANSA and TREFOIL. All three have to be respected, but of the trio TREFOIL stands out. This 3 year-old filly is still lightly-raced with just five career runs and wasn’t disgraced when running fourth (of 14) at Newmarket last month in a G3 contest. That run also came off a 3 month break so can be expected to have improved for it and also gets the 3 year-old allowance here from the older horses. The in-form Freyja and the Hannon runner – Anna Nerium – are the joint top-rated in the field (101) so can go well too, while Moll Davis and Kaleidoscopic are the only two proven CD winners in the field so can’t be discounted either. The unexposed Salsada, who has won her last three, is another going the right way, but this is a big leap up in class.

3.15 – Betfair November Handicap Cl2 1m4f ITV4

13/16 – Won between 2 and 4 races before
13/16 – Winners that came from draw 9 or higher
13/16 – Favourites that were unplaced
12/16 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
12/16 – Had raced at least 5 times that season
12/16 – Had raced at Doncaster before (6 had won)
11/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
11/16 – Placed last time out
11/16 – Won by a horse aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/16 – Won carrying 8-13 or less in weight
9/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 -Trained by John Gosden (won it 6 times in all)
2/16 – Ridden by jockey Martin Dwyer
1/16 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1
Just 1 winning favourite since 1995

TQ VERDICT: As always, a very competitive renewal of this race with 23 runners. Trainer John Gosden has a top record in the race, but he’s no entries this time. With 10 of the last 16 winners carrying 8st 13lbs or less then this is a fair trend to note, while 11 of the last 16 winners were also aged 3 or 4 years-old. The 7 year-old – Euchen Glen – falls down on those last two trends, but it’s hard to ignore his recent return to form – winning two G3 contests. He’s back into a handicap here but has a result has a lot of weight to give away. On a plus, he’s clearly in the form of his life and is a proven CD winner that is loving the soft ground at the moment. It’s hard to fault his chance, but I just feel the weight concession might just get the better of him in the here. Kingbrook is at the other end of the weights with only 8-7 to carry and this Ian Williams runner bounced back to form last time at Newmarket with a nice win – he’s up 6lbs here though so more is needed, but it’s worth noting the yard won this race in 2017. With 13 of the last 16 winners being drawn 9 or higher then this might be seen as a negative got those drawn low – Raymond Tusk, Ben Lilly, Dash Of Spice, Aasheq, Indianapolis, Surrey Pride, Bollin Joan, Everything For You and Now Children. So, the two I like here are SAM COOKE and TULIP FIELDS (e/w). The former has been popular in the betting all week and it’s easy to see why. This Ralph Beckett runner is unexposed with just 6 career runs and looked to be back to form last time with a close second at Ascot in a decent handicap. The softer ground is fine and he’s only up 3lbs for that. The other pick – Tulip Fields – ran well in a Listed race at Lingfield last time out (5th of 11) and prior to that beat another of today’s runners – Dash Of Spice – by an easy 2 lengths here over this course and distance. He’s rated only 4lbs higher than that win and we know this 3 year-old, who gets in here with just 8st 4lbs - handles the ground and the track.

 

Wincanton Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Richard Barber Memorial Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4

13/13 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Didn’t win last time out
11/13 – Aged 7 or younger
10/13 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Had won over at least 2m4f before (hurdles)
8/13 – Rated between 119-129
9/13 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
9/13 – Had won at least twice before (hurdles)
8/13 – Finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out
8/13 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
6/13 – Had run at the track before
7/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Aged 6 years-old
5/13 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 9)
2/13 – Trained by Harry Fry (2 of the last 7)
2/13 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
Misty Bloom (9/2) won the race in 2019 (Emma Lavelle)

TQ VERDICT: Some big jumping yards on show here and it will probably pay to stick with them. Nicky Henderson runs Sunrise Ruby, who has won her last two in decent fashion and gets a lot of weight from most of the others, but this step up in grade will certainly require more. Nicholls has two big chances too with CD winner Cill Anna and EGLANTINE DU SEUILL in the race. The former is a fast-improving mare that has won her last three and the fact she stays further will be a plus in conditions. However, the former runs for the first time for Nicholls after showing a good level of form for Willie Mullins – including winning the 2019 Mares’ Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Okay, she’s not won since that day but has clearly had a few issues. A recent wind op is interesting though, while the fact Nicholls is putting up the useful claimer – Bryan Carver, to claim 5lbs, also catches the eye. Last season he ran well in a decent handicap at the Leopardstown Festival in February and has also run the likes of Stormy Island, Honeysuckle and Reserve Tank close during her career. Nicholls might have to work some magic with her, but she’s clearly got ability and has gone okay fresh in the past – this looks a nice place for Nicholls to test the water with her. Of the rest, It’s Probably Me, Molly Ollys Wishes, Perfect Myth and Midnightreflection are others that have shown a good level of form, but last year’s winner of the race – MISTY BLOOM (e/w) – might also warrant a small saver. Yes, she’s lost her way a bit since, but was an easy 6 length winner of this race 12 months ago and is only rated 4lbs higher.

2.25 - ‘Rising Stars’ Novices Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4

13/13 – Had won no more than twice over fences
12/13 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Favourites placed
11/13 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Irish (6) or French (4) bred
9/13 – Had won over 2m3f or further (Chase)
9/13 – Aged 6 or younger
8/13 – Won last time out
8/13 – Winning favourites
7/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
10 of the last 11 winners were aged between 5-7
Reserve Tank (4/5 fav) won the race in 2019 (Colin Tizzard)

TQ VERDICT: Only the three runners heading to post here but it still looks a nice little race. The Jamie Snowden runner – Ga Law – has caught the eye in winning his only two starts over fences and certainly can’t be ruled out. He gets a lot of weight from the other two in the race too and is certainly going the right way to warrant a crack at this better company. He’s jumped well on the whole and likes to make the running so more of the same can be expected here and if getting into a rhythm up top could easily stretch the others with that low weight. Hurricane Harvey won well on his chase debut too at Uttoxeter and the form of that win looks solid with some fair sorts in behind. However, the clear top-rated hurdler in the race is GRAND SANCY and having made a good transition to fences now looks the one to beat. The Paul Nicholls yard have a cracking record in this race too – winning it 5 times in the last 9 runnings – while his easy 13 length win at Chepstow last time was impressive. That also came off the back of a break and a wind op so can be expected to have improved for it, while being a hurdles winner here at Wincanton is, of course, another bonus regarding his ability to handle the track.

3.00 - Unibet Elite Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

16/16 – Aged 7 or younger
14/16 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Won between 2-5 times before (hurdles)
13/16 – Came from the top three in the betting
11/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
10/16 – Unplaced last time out
10/16 – Rated 150 or lower
9/16 – Having first run of the season
5/16 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/16 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
4/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by John Quinn
Fusil Raffles (4/7 fav) won the race in 2019 (Nicky Henderson)

TQ VERDICT: This has been a good race for the Paul Nicholls yard in recent years, so their Diego Du Charmil and Solo have to be considered. They are closely-rated but you feel Solo will have more scope for improvement with just four career runs. We last saw him running down the field in the Triumph Hurdle after being sent off at just 4/1 in that race. He’s clearly better than that effort and it’s interesting he’s been gelded since last Spring. However, his task has not been made easy with the 2016 winner of this race – SCEAU ROYAL – in the race. This Alan King runner landed the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las last month and that might just give him the fitness edge over the Nicholls runner. He also gets a handy 3lbs from Solo and being that he’s already rated 6lbs higher too that would make him 9lbs well-in. Yes, the ratings don’t always work out in races like this, but he looks the safest call. Of the rest, expect to see Brandon Castle take them along from the front, but this might just help set things up for the selection too as he normally likes coming off the pace.

 

3.35 - Badger Beers Silver Trophy (A Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV4

17/17 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
15/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
15/17 – Won a 3m or further chase race previously
14/17 – Won by a horse aged between 7 and 9 years-old
14/17  – Placed in the top four in their last race
14/17 – Won at least two chase races previously
13/17 – Won between 2 and 5 times over fences before
13/17 –  Raced at the course previously (won over fences)
12/17 – Favourites placed
11/17 – Irish-bred horse
10/17 – Raced already that season
10/17 – Raced at either Sandown (4), Wincanton (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
10/17 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
7/17 – Carried 10-5 or less in weight
7/17 – Priced at double-figures
7/17 – Won their latest race
7/17 – Favourites that won (1 joint, 1 Co)
7/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
5/17 – Ridden by a claiming conditional jockey (including 5 of the last 10 years)
Present Man won the race in 2017 and 2018
Give Me A Copper (9/2 co fav) won the race in 2019 (Paul Nicholls)

TQ VERDICT: Trainer Paul Nicholls clearly means business again in this race – with three live chances. He’s won the race 7 times in the last 17 years and this year pins his hopes on PRESENT MAN, DANNY WHIZZBANG and MY WAY. All three look to have a big chance too, but I’d prefer to stick with their proven winner in this race – PRESENT MAN. Yes, he flopped in the contest 12 months ago, but the softer ground that year was probably to blame. Therefore, any rain would be a negative and you’d probably want to revise your thinking if Wincanton does get a lot of rain. He is rated only 2lbs higher than when winning this in 2018 and jockey Bryony Frost knows him well – she’s ridden him both times he’s taken this race. A recent win at Chepstow will also him spot on for this and providing the ground stays good should go well again. Danny Whizzbang was a good winner at Newbury three runs back in a decent Novice Chase, but has flopped since. He’s had a wind op over the summer, but even though he’s clearly talented I just worry his lack of experience will tell – I’d prefer the other Nicholls runner My Way, with Bryan Carver taking off a handy 5lbs too. Just A Sting was fourth in this race last year and should go well too, while El Presente is improving well over fences – winning his last two – but is up another 5lbs and is another that might just lack for experience in a race like this. So, the other one I’m going to have onside is the Michael Scudamore runner – SOME CHAOS (e/w). This  9 year-old has now won 5 of his 9 starts over fences and was most impressive last time at Kelso when winning by 3 lengths. He’s only 3lbs higher here, but is another that has CD winning form after landing a race here back in Feb 19, while he’s another that seems best on good ground. Potterman, Sizing At Midnight and Kitty’s Light are other in-form runners that are worthy of a mention too.

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.40 – williamhill Best Odds Guaranteed Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo) 2m4f

4/5 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Winning favourites
3/5 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
2/5 – Owned by Simon Munir and Isaac Souede
2/5 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/5 – Ridden by Nico de Boinville

TQ VERDICT: This is a race owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede like to target – they’ve won the last two runnings – and they try again with the Nicky Henderson runner – Call Me Lord. This 155-rated hurdler was last seen running down the field in the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival but won the International Hurdle last season at that venue and on that form is a big player. However, for me he’s just not fulfilled his potential and despite still only being 7 years-old still has a bit to prove. The Dan Skelton runner Ch’tibello is probably the ratings pick as he’s also rated 155 but gets a handy 6lbs from the likes of Call Me Lord and Summerville Boy. But he’s another that seems to always be thereabouts in his races but with just 1 win from his last 16 races isn’t one to totally rely on when it comes to getting his head in front. So that leaves me with SUMMERVILLE BOY. This Tom George runner was last seen running 5th in the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Festival and before that a decent second in the Cleeve Hurdle. But I wasn’t totally sure he was at home over those 3m trips so this drop back to 2m4f looks a good move and the last time he ran over this distance resulted in a nice win in the Relkeel Hurdle at the turn of the year. He’s also gone well off a break in the past, so the 240-day break isn’t a worry. Of the rest, the top-rated Thomas Darby will be popular too, but the form of the Olly Murphy yard at the moment is only average and this will also be the furthest he’s gone in a race – I’d prefer to see him over this trip first.

 

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