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20th September 2020

Saturday TV Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 15th Aug 2020

We’ve got all the trends & stats you need ahead of the LIVE ITV action from Newbury and Newmarket this Saturday.

Use these trends to whittle down the runners and find the best profile of past winners.

 

NEWMARKET Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 Betway Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 1m4f ITV4

10/10 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
9/10 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
9/10 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Didn’t’ win last time out
8/10 – Drawn in stalls 3 (6) or 5 (2)
8/10 – Placed 5th or better last time out
8/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
7/10 – Rated between 80 and 85
7/10 – Won just once before
6/10 – Ran at Newmarket (July) before
5/10 – Winning favourites

TQ VERDICT: Allegiant is the only course winner in the field so commands respect on that but does need to bounce back from an average last run – maybe the first-time cheekpieces will help. He is, however, the only 5 year-old in the race and 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 3 or 4. Despite being run over 1m4f, horses from stalls 3 and 5 strangely have a top record – winning a massive 8 of the last 10 runnings. Allegiant has stall 3 this year and TO NATHANIEL (e/w) has draw 5. The last-named hails from the powerful John Gosden yard and despite flopping the last twice does have excuses. He didn’t get home over 1m6f last time and the time before missed the break and didn’t get the clearest or runs. It’s interesting he’s had a small break to freshen up and prior to those runs won twice at Kempton on the AW. Of the rest, the consistent Zuba should run well, while Night Bear and Boss Power bring good recent form into the race and should be respected. Gosden also runs Indigo Lake, who sports the first -time blinkers, and is a past winner over this trip, while Knowing and Midnight Gift make up the field.

 

2.40 Betway Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-90) 7f ITV

7/7 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/7 – Won between 1-3 times
7/7 – Carried between 9-1 and 9-7 in weight
5/7 – Had won over 7f before
5/7 – Placed favourites
5/7 – Rated between 79-81
6/7 – Finished in the top two last time out
5/7 – Won last time out
2/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Trained by David Barron

TQ VERDICT: The hat-trick seeking KARIBANA is the only proven CD winner in the field and looks a big player despite being up 6lbs here. He did it well at the track to win by 1 ¾ lengths last time and didn’t get the best of runs that day either. More is needed and it won’t be easy off top weight by he’s the in-form runner in the race. Broughtons Gold and Dashing Roger at the other two recent winners in the field so are others to consider. The Richard Fahey yard won this in 2015 and try to add to that with Embolden but does need to put some average recent runs behind him. The other of interest is RECALL THE SHOW (e/w). This Mick Quinn runner is yet to win a race but has only had 6 outings and been in the top three four times. He ran well on his return back in June on his debut for the yard – was with Jessie Harrington prior to that – while 5 of the last 7 winners were rated between 79 and 81 so his mark of 80 catches the eye.

 

3.15 – Betway Grey Horse Handicap (for Grey Horses Only) Cl4 6f ITV

16/17 – Failed to win last time out
15/17 – Had won over 6f before
15/17 – Had 4 or more runs already that season
14/17 – Aged 5 or older
13/17 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
13/17 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-old
12/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Had 3 or more career wins
11/17 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/17 – Unplaced favourites
3/17 – Trained by Tony Newcombe
1/17 – Winning favourites
My Amigo (5/1) won the race in 2018
Case Key (8/1) won the race in 2017 and 2019

TQ VERDICT: I’m going to stick with last year’s winner of this race – CASE KEY (e/w) – who also landed the prize in 2017. This grey would have had this race as a target all season and heads here in top form after a win and a second at Leicester and Yarmouth. Yes, he’s rated 8lbs higher than last year’s win but jockey Angus Villiers helps by taking off 5lbs of that. With 13 of the last 17 winners aged 5, 6 or 7 then this might be a negative for the 3 year-olds in the race – Clareyblue, Endowed and Angel Grey – but with 14 of the last 17 winners aged 5 or older then this is better news for Lethal Angel, Case Key, Buccaneers Vault, Rock Boy Grey and Glenn Coco. Of that bunch, BUCCANEERS VAULT (e/w) might be worth chancing too. This 8 year-old has Megan Nicholls booked to ride and has run three respectable races since the action returned in June. He’s a pound lower here and with Megan’s 3lbs that means he’s 4lbs better off than his last outing.

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.50 – Denford Stakes (Registered as The Washington Singer Stakes) (Listed Race) Cl1 7f ITV

16/18 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Finished in the first three last time out
15/18 – Had won a race before
14/18 – Had won over 6 or 7f before
13/18 – Won by a Feb (7) or March (5) foal
12/18 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or more
12/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Won last time out
10/18 – Horses from stall 3 placed
10/18 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
7/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/18 – Ran at Goodwood (2) or Sandown (2) last time out
4/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
4/18 – Won on their racecourse debut
4/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
3/18 – Trained by John Gosden
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore

TQ VERDICT: Some promising sorts on show here. Godophin’s Dhahabi was a nice winner on debut at Newmarket and can go well, while Francesco Guardi also got off the mark on his first run, when a nice winner at Salisbury last month. But that form has taken a few knocks since and trainer John Gosden, who had the runner-up in that race, should have a line into that horse with GURU. This 2 year-old is the only CD winner in the field and should be a lot sharper for a narrow debut win at the track last month. He’s well-bred and with the Gosden yard having a fair record in this race too, plus a 32% record with their 2 year-olds at the track, then he’s the most likely winner for me. Of the rest, William Bligh and Saint Lawrence are the most experienced runners in the field, and the later sets a good standard after running fourth in a Listed race at Ascot last time out – he rates the danger.

 

2.25 - Unibet You're On Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer William Haggas has a 39% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Jim Crowley has a 21% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track

TQ VERDICT: No past running to go on here, but jockey Jim Crowley has a decent 21% record when riding 4+ year-olds at the track so his mount AFAAK gets the call. With leading owner and Crowley’s retainer – Al Maktoum – having Jahbath in the race too then you feel he’d have the pick to these two runners so the fact he’s chosen Afaak should be noted. This 6 year-old was a fine third in a competitive handicap at Glorious Goodwood last time out and gets in here off the same mark. The blinkers were on for the first time that day and are on again. Having said that, with trainer William Haggas having a massive 39% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track then his runner – Jahbath – can’t be overlooked and jockeys don’t always get it right! KING CARNEY is better than his recent runs and looks interesting now dropped back to a mile after not getting home over further the last twice. He comes from the in-form Charlie Fellowes yard, who are having a fine season, and could easily bounce back with getting 10lbs from Afaak. Tempus, Overwrite and Modern Millie are three others to note in the market.

 

3.00 – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f61y ITV

18/18 – Had won at least twice in their career
16/18 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
14/18 – Aged 3-5 years-old
13/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/18 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Drawn in stall 3 or higher
12/18 – Officially rated 110 or higher
12/18 – Winning distance of 1 ¼ lengths or more
11/18 – Ran at Goodwood (4) or Newmarket (6) last time out
10/18 – Winning favourites
8/18 – Had already won a Group race
7/18 – Had won at Newbury before
Technician (10/1) won the race in 2019

TQ VERDICT: Course winners – Morando and Communique – are the two top-rated in the field and should find this drop back into Group Three company a lot easier – especially MORANDO. This 7 year-old is not getting any younger but ran with credit in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes last time at Ascot and with that coming off a 258-day break should be better for it. His recent form when dropped into Group Threes reads well 1-1-2-1. Communique often runs his race but is a horse that just doesn’t win enough for me and needs to come back from a poor showing at Goodwood last time. The Queen’s course winner – Sextant – is another to consider from the Stoute yard, and they also have Alignak in the race, who could be the more progressive of the pair with just 6 runs. But TRITONIC is the other of interest as this Alan King runner gets in with just 8-9 to carry, meaning he gets 10lbs off the likes of Morando, Alignak and Communique. He’s a proven course winner too and ran well to be second in a Listed race at Hamilton last time – the step up in trip looks an interesting move too and that can hopefully eke out a bit more improvement.

 

3.35 – Unibet Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

16/18 – Didn’t win last time out
16/18 – Had won a Listed (6) or Group (9) race before
15/18 – Had won over this 7f trip before
15/18 – Officially rated 108 or more
15/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/18 – Had won 3 or more times already in their career
14/18 – Had 3 or more previous runs already that season
9/18 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
8/18 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
The last 11 winners were all draw 6 or lower
Just one winner from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
Glorious Journey (10/3) won the race in 2019
Sir Dancealot won the race in 2018
Breton Rock won the race in 2014 and was third in 2015

TQ VERDICT: Glorious Dancer won this race 12 months ago and is the only CD winner in the line-up. He’s is hugely respected based on that and will be a lot sharper for a recent run at Goodwood after a 5-month break. The likes of Threat, Pirrre Lapin and Surf Dancer are closely-matched in the ratings too, but this looks a good chance for the top-rated DREAM OF DREAMS to gain another win. This classy sprinter was last seen running a very close second in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot and I feel the time is right to step him back up to 7f. He was also a fair second in this race in 2018, but his running style suggests this longer trip will suit and top jockey Oisin Murphy has been booked to ride. Of the rest, BREATHTAKING LOOK (e/w) can run well too. This Stuart Williams-trained runner has a good record over this 7f trip, including a fine fourth in the Oak Tree Stakes over this distance late last month.

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