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30th October 2020

Saturday TV Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 26th Sept 2020

The ITV cameras head to Newmarket this Saturday to show four LIVE races, with the ultra-competitive Cambridgeshire Handicap their main event. Plus, they are also at Haydock to take in two handicaps - as always here at TQ we’re on hand with all the key trends and stats……Let's get cracking!

Did you know that ALL of the last 18 Cambridgeshire Handicap winners were aged 6 or younger?

 

Saturday 26th September 2020

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 - Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m ITV4

18/18 – Had won one or two races before
17/18 – Had won over 7f or further before
17/18 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
16/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
14/18 - Either US or Irish bred
12/18 – Foaled in Feb or March
12/18 – Had only won over 7f before
9/18 – Won last time out
6/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/18 – Trained by John Gosden
2/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner 5 times
11 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

Note: From 2010 back the race was run at Ascot, except in 2005 (Newmarket)

TQ VERDICT: Just the five runners here but the ratings suggest a case can be made for them all. New Mandate is the top-rated in the field and with Frankie Dettori riding again will catch the eye of punters. He was a nice Listed winner at Doncaster last time out and could improve further for the step up from 7f to 1m. Cobh is another Listed winner in the field and has at least won over this 1m trip before, while any rain would be a help for this Clive Cox runner based on previous runs too. Gear Up is 2-from-2 and is another that should be well-suited by this step up to 1m. He won the G3 Acomb Stakes at York last time out and looks sure to be involved too. Derby entry – Pleasant Man – was a nice winner on debut at Haydock and is clearly thought to be a nice sort. That debut win for the Roger Charlton yard came on soft ground too and we can expect the horse to have learned a lot from that – I think he can go well and is certainly the least exposed in the field. But the Aidan O’Brien yard have won the last two runnings of this race and they look to have a good chance again this year – this time with a horse called ONTARIO. He’s already had four runs so is one of the most experienced in the field and we know he stays this 1m trip well and acts with give in the ground should there be any more rain. He wasn’t disgraced in a G2 in Ireland last time (3rd) over 7f, but the time before won over the extended 1m trip at Galway. Being a Galileo colt we can expect him to improve with racing and with a longer trip, while Ryan Moore rides the horse for the first time too.

2.25 – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV4

18/18 – Finished in the top two last time out
17/18 – Had won over 6f before
16/18 – Had not run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
16/18 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
15/18 – Foaled in Feb or March
15/18 – Had 3 or more previous runs
14/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Went onto run in the 1,000 Guineas the following season (2 won it)
12/18 – Won last time out
12/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
10/18 – Had won exactly 2 previous races
8/18 – Horses from stall 6 that finished in the top 3
7/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/18 – Winners drawn in stall 6
3/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 of last 4 runnings)
2/18 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas the following season
2/18 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/18 – Trained by Brian Meehan
9 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: Often a good guide for the 1,000 Guineas here next season – 13 of the last 18 Guineas winners contested this race. The only unbeaten horse in the field – Dandalla – is certainly a big player after winning the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes here on the July course a few months ago. He’s been freshened up since and should go well. HAPPY ROMANCE (e/w) is a fast-improving sprinter, that’s won her last three and can be expected to be running on well. He beat Alcohol Free by ½ a length at Salisbury last time out and took a valuable sales race at York the time before. He’s a horse with a decent finishing kick so as long as he can keep tabs on them during the early part of the race then he could be dangerous. Sacred is a course winner but has a touch of seconditis at the moment – connections will be hoping the first-time cheekpieces will help. She was also 1 length behind MISS AMULET at York a few runs back in the G2 Lowther Stakes and I think this Irish raider can confirm that form. Ryan Moore has been booked to ride and any rain wouldn’t be an issue for this top-rated runner in the field. Aloha Star and Umm Kulthum are others to consider, but the last-named was a good winner for us last weekend at Ayr, but is another horse that’s already been beaten by Miss Amulet this term so would need to improve on that.

3.00 - Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) Cl1 6f ITV

17/17 – Won over 6f previously
16/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
15/17 – Won their last race
15/17 – Won at least twice previously
14/17 – Had run 3 or more times previously
14/17 – Never raced at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
13/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
13/17 – Foaled in either Feb or March
11/17 – Favourites placed
10/17 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
6/17 – Ran at Deauville last time out
6/17 – Favourites that won
5/17 – Won by an Irish-based stable
4/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
1/17 – Winners that came from stall 1
Aidan O’Brien won the race in – 2000, 2001, 2004, 2011, 2017 & 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

TQ VERDICT: The Aidan O’Brien yard have a top record in this race – winning it six times since 2000 and twice in the last three years. They run Lipizzaner here – a horse that got back to winning ways over 5f last time out at Navan, but prior to that flopped in the Norfolk Stakes (4th) behind another runner today – The Lir Jet. He’s also been beaten by Lucky Vega, from the Jessica Harrington yard and might do well to overturn that form. That horse was a top winner of the Phoenix Stakes at The Curragh two runs ago – he had The Lir Jet 3 ½ lengths back that day too. He didn’t quite see out the 7f trip next time, so the drop back to 6f is a huge plus and it would be a shock if this top-rated horse (117) in the field isn’t going close. Method is 2-from-2 for the Martyn Meade yard and has Frankie riding. This requires another step up, but he’s been very impressive in his two wins to date – including an easy win in the Rose Bowl G3 Stakes at Newbury last time – he can’t be ruled out. Minzaal was an easy winner of the Gimcrack Stakes at York last time out, but the form of that race has taken a few knocks since. With that in mind, I’m going to side with this year’s Richmond Stakes winner – SUPREMACY. This Clive Cox 2 year-old bolted-up in that Goodwood race a few months ago and clocked a fair time too. He made all that day so we can expect similar tactics here and could easily burn the finish out of the others coming the closing stages. The only niggle would be if the ground came up soft, as all his running to date has been on quicker surfaces, but that’s not to say it wouldn’t suit.

3.35 – Bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m1f ITV

18/18 – Aged 6 or younger
16/18 – Won 3 or more times in their career
15/18 – Carried 9-5 or less
14/18 – Won from a double-figure stall
13/18 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
13/18 – Unplaced favourites
13/18 – Had won over 1m2f before
13/18 – Finished 5th or better last time out
12/18 – Had 5 or more runs that season
12/18 – Rated between 90-100
12/18 – Returned a double (or treble) figure price in the betting
10/18 – Carried 8-12 or less
5/18 – Ran at Newbury last time out
4/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Trained by John Gosden
3/18 – Won their last race
12 of the last 14 winners had run in the last 9 weeks
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 20/1

TQ VERDICT: A massive 29 runners heading to post here but some useful trends too. ALL of the last 18 winners were aged 6 or younger, so that’s a negative for the two 7 year-olds in the field – You’re Hired and Zhui Feng. 15 of the last 18 winners carried 9-5 or less – the top three on the card – Certain Lad, Sir Busker and Montatham would have this trend against them. 14 of the last 18 (78%) have won from a double-figure draw, but it goes without saying that with 29 runners the large bulk of the runners in previous years would have naturally had a double-figure draw anyway. Horses aged between 4-6 have the best record, while having run in the last few months is another plus. It’s a race trainer John Gosden likes to target too – he’s won 4 of the last 18 and with Frankie riding his Al Rufaa, this one could be supported in the market – but being a 3 year-old that would put me off. Trainer William Haggas has a strong had too with recent winners Sinjaari and the lightly weighted Ilaraab in the field. The three I like against the field though are TEMPUS, DEREVO (e/w) and BELL ROCK (e/w). The former has won 3 of this 4 turf starts, including his last two in impressive fashion and a 4lb rise for the last of those doesn’t look too harsh. He looked to have more in hand at the line and this Kingman colt could easily progress out of handicaps very soon – drawn 23. Devero was well-backed last time and only just failed to get the job done at Doncaster. He’s off the same mark here, but Ryan Moore is back in the saddle and this 1m1f trip could be ideal for him. The final pick – Bell Rock – is a proven course winner that comes here off the back of a fair third (of 18) at Goodwood. He’s been freshened up with a few months off since and is a horse that’s gone well off a break in the past. Oisin Murphy rides and draw 24 looks ideal.


HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


2.05 – Visit racingtv.com Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m ITV4

12/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/13 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
11/13 – Didn’t win last time out
10/13 – Had won 1 or 2 times before
10/13 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/13 – Drawn in stalls 8 or lower
8/13 – Irish bred winners
7/13 – Unplaced favourites
6/13 – Had raced at Haydock before
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Tom Dascombe
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

TQ VERDICT: Cardsharp is starting to look dangerous off a mark of 97 – was rated 111 last year – but the step up to 1m is not ideal for me with all his winning coming over shorter – he’s tried 1m 6 times and been unplaced each time. 11 of the last 13 winners didn’t win last time out, so that’s a negative for the only recent winner in the field – Hayadh. Key Victory, Miltown Star and Danyah have the form to go well, but the one I like here is ALTERNATIVE FACT (e/w). This proven CD winner can be forgiven his last run at Goodwood (unplaced) as wasn’t the best away and I feel this drop back to 1m (from 12f) suits him better. He’s only 4lbs higher than when winning here three runs ago and any rain would be fine. The Ed Dunlop yard have given him a few months off to get over that last race and Danny Tudhope is top jockey booking. Of the rest, the Charlie Appleby yard have a cracking 31% record with their older horses at the track, so their KEY VICTORY is the other to have onside. He’s not been out since February when running at Meydan, but wasn’t beaten far that day (5th) and is another horse that’s gone well off a break in the past. 9-11 to carry makes life hard but he’s got that weight for a reason – being the clear top-rated in the field off 105.

2.40 – Join Racing TV Now Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4

13/13 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/13 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
13/13 – Had won over 5f before
12/13 – Aged 6 or younger
11/13 – Came from stalls 7-11 (inc)
10/13 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/13 – Carried 8-11 or more in weight
10/13 – Had won between 2-4 times before
9/13 – Favourites placed
7/13 – Rated between 92-96
7/13 – Had raced at Haydock before
7/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
6/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/13 – Trained by Jamie Osborne
2/13 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/13 – Ridden by Adam Kirby
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: A massive 12 of the last 13 winners of this race were aged 6 or younger, but it might be worth ignoring that trend this time as the 7 year-old DARK SHOT (e/w) has been in rude form of late. This former talented sprinter lost his way over the last few seasons but as a result has dropped to a very attractive handicap mark (80) and that’s finally got his confidence back by winning 2 of this last 3, He’s up just 4lbs for a 1 ½ length win at Leicester on Monday and still looks well-treated He gets into this better race with just 8-5 to carry too and is clearly a sprinter in good spirits with himself at the moment. Count D’Orsay beat Came From The Dark by just ½ a length here last time out and there shouldn’t be a lot between the pair again. But the Karl Burke runner – AINSDALE – might also be worth chancing returning from a break. This 3 year-old has won his last three and as a result shot up the handicap and is now another 8lbs higher than his last win. That came at Nottingham back in Oct 19, but with just seven career runs could have a lot more scope for improvement, while should the track get any more rain that would further enhance his chance. CD winner Glory Fighter, recent Ayr scorer – Mid Winster – and Militia are others that can’t be ruled out.

 

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