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30th September 2020

Saturday TV Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 29th Aug 2020

More LIVE horse racing action this weekend as the ITV4 cameras head to Goodwood, Newmarket and Windsor – we’ve got it all covered with the key trends and stats to help you whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Goodwood Horse Racing Trends

 

1.50 - Ladbrokes Prestige Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV

10/10 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/10 – Yet to win a Group or Listed race
10/10 – Foaled in Jan, Feb or March
10/10 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
10/10 – Won 1 or 2 times before
8/10 – Placed favourites
8/10 – Ran at Newmarket, Goodwood or Ascot last time out
7/10 – Won last time out
7/10 – Had won over 7f before
6/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/10 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/10 – Ridden by Harry Bentley
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1

TQ VERDICT: Isabella Giles was a close fourth in a G3 at Ascot last time out and should be involved on that form, while recent York scorer – Happy Romance – is sure to be popular too. However, the last-named is stepping up from 6f to try 7f for the first time so does have some questions to answer on the trip – she looks like she’ll get it, but I’d rather see her run over it first. Ryan Moore riding Prado, who won well on debut at Salisbury, is another to note, while Seattle Rock was a close third in the G3 Sweet Solera Stakes at HQ last time and that form would bring her in the reckoning. But the call is to side with POMELO. This 2 year-old caught my eye on debut at Newbury – winning by an easy 5 lengths. She’s proven over this 7f trip and with that run under her belt looks the sort to progress further. She travelled well into the race that day and jockey Harry Bentley has been lucky in this race in recent years, with wins in 2015 and 2018.

2.25 - Brian Chattaway Celebrating 50 Years At Ladbrokes Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 7f ITV

9/10 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
9/10 – Won over 7f before
9/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/10 – Won between 3-5 times before
8/10 – Carried 9-0 or more in weight
8/10 – Drawn between stalls 5-9 (inc)
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
7/10 – Placed favourites
7/10 – Had run at Goodwood or Ascot last time out
7/10 – Had run at Goodwood before
7/10 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Winning favourites
5/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
2/10 – Ridden by Adam Kirby
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

TQ VERDICT: 10 runners head to post here and with 8 of the last 10 winners drawn between stalls 5-9 (inc) then MILLTOWN STAR, JACK’S POINT, BREATH OF AIR, OH THIS IS US, and CARDSHARP have this as a plus. 8 of the last 10 winners also carried 9-0 or more in weight, so that might be a negative for the bottom five on the card, while 9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 4-6 years-old – this would mean the likes of Monoski (3), Milltown Star (3) and Oh This Is Us (7) would have this stat to overcome. Taking all that into account, it might be worth taking a chance on CARDSHARP (e/w) and JACK’S POINT (e/w) – who look to tick a lot of the main stats. The former has been running poorly of late but as a result has dropped to a mark below 100 (98) for the first time in his career! He’s a bit in-and-out but has run well in better races this year and has also handled the track here well in the past. Jack’s Point is another with a bit to prove at the moment, but earlier this season was a top runner-up in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Ascot over this trip and is only 3lbs higher here – if finding that level again, would surely be dangerous. Of the rest, CD winner Battered, with Oisin Murphy booked to ride would be another note in the betting, while the Hannon-trained Magical Wish is one of just two last time out winners in the field so has to be respected on that.

3:00 - Ladbrokes March Stakes (Group 3) (In Memory Of John Dunlop) Cl1 (3yo) 1m6f ITV

10/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Placed favourites
9/10 – Yet to win a Group or Listed race
8/10 – Won over at least 1m4f in the past
7/10 – Drawn in stalls 4 or lower
7/10 – Had run at the track before
6/10 – Won by a 3 year-old (last 6 runnings)
5/10 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Trained by William Haggas
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3

TQ VERDICT: Just the four runners here, but the ratings suggest the Roger Varian entry – CABALETTA – is the one to be on. She’s the top-rated in the field (106), but also gets a handy 3lbs from the likes of Subjectivist and the only course winner in the field - Celtic Art. She was a nice Listed winner at Newbury in July, while wasn’t disgraced when runner-up in the G2 Lillie Langtry Stakes last time out here over this trip. Yes, she’s got a tiny bit to prove over this trip, but this looks a much easier race than last time and, for me, kept on well to give her another try over it. Table Mountain was a nice winner at Ascot last time and looks a real improver over the staying trips, but this is a big hike up in grade and is rated 15lbs inferior to the selection. Of the rest, Subjectivist ran well for a long way in the Great Voltigeur last week at York and is worth another try over the longer trip, while Celtic Art can be expected to be fitter for his return run here last month – wasn’t beaten far – and is certainly no back number, but would have to prove himself stepping up from 1m2f to 1m6f here!

 

3:35 - Ladbrokes Celebration Mile Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV

10/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
10/10 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
9/10 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
9/10 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Had won over 1m before
8/10 – Won between 3- 6 times before
7/10 – Drawn in stalls 1, 2 or 3
7/10 – Had won a Group race before
6/10 – Had run at the track before
5/10 – Won by a 3 year-old
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
3/10 – Ran at Salisbury last time out
3/10 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
3/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Trained by David Simcock
Duke Of Hazzard (3/1) won this in 2019

TQ VERDICT: Last year’s winner – DUKE OF HAZZARD – can go well at a track he’s got a great record at 1-1-2, but was very disappointing last time out at Salisbury (ran too free), so needs to bounce back from that. Regal Reality won that same Salisbury race last time well (Sovereign Stakes) and is another that is a CD winner here at Goodwood. He’s clearly in better form now and can go well too. Sir Busker has done really well this season and steps up into Group company for the first time. He often finishes his races off well so if able to keep tabs on them early on could run well. But the clear form pick is the 125-rated BENBATL. This Godolphin runner has to give a small bit of weight away to the others but is rated 10+lbs higher than the rest and should still have enough in-hand. His last two runs in G2 company has been winning ones and despite returning from 6 months off is a horse that gone very well fresh in the past.

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends

 

2:05 - Hopeful Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV

10/10 – Has won over 6f in the past
10/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
8/10 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
6/10 – Won between 2-4 times before
6/10 – Placed last time out
6/10 – Ran at the track before
5/10 – Stall 1 horse placed (top 3)
3/10 – Winning favourite
2/10 – Trained by Dean Ivory
Raucous (10/1) won this race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: We’ve last year’s winner – Raucous – in the race, but he had Cieren Fallon claiming 5lbs last year and is also heading here off almost a year off, so much different circumstances. 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 4-6 years-old, while 9 of the last 10 didn’t win last time out. With 7 of the last 10 winners also coming from stalls 5 or lower, then JASH, WATAN, HIGHLAND DRESS, VENTURA REBEL and SUNDAY STAR get a thumbs up in this score. Of that bunch, JASH, is also a proven CD winner and ran well on his return to be fourth at Newcastle so should be a lot fitter here and jockey Jim Crowley prefers him over the other Maktoum runner in the field – Shabaaby. Summerghand is in good form at the moment too after a nice win at here and is the top-rated in the field so has to be taken seriously. But the other pick is the Ed Walker runner – SUNDAY STAR. This 4 year-old ticks a lot of the main trends and gets a handy weight pull from some of the others. A recent third in the G3 Summer Stakes at York was a good effort and she’s another that has proven CD winning form at the track.

Windsor Horse Racing Trends

 

2:40 - August Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m3½f ITV

10/10 – Aged between 3-6 years old
10/10 – Drawn between stalls 2-6 (inc)
10/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Placed favourites
8/10 – Had won over 1m2f+ before
8/10 – Irish bred
6/10 – Won between 2-4 times
6/10 – Drawn in stall 4
3/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
2/10 – Trained by David Simcock
2/10 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/10 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/10 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
1/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
Desert Encounter won this in 2018

TQ VERDICT: The Queen’s Sextant was a good winner over this CD back in June 19 and has progressed well since – he should be a lot better for a recent run at Newbury in a better race than this. Communique and Alounak certainly have the form to go well but have been a bit below-par on the track of late. So it’s hard to get away from the 2018 winner – DESERT ENCOUNTER – who wan a cracker to be a close second at Goodwood in the G3 Glorious Stakes last time. This ease in grade will help and the David Simcock yard have actually landed the last two runnings of this contest. Jamie Spencer has also been booked to ride – and he’s won two of the last three renewals. Of the rest, the Hollie Doyle-ridden LE DON DE VIE can give the Simcock horse most to think about. He was third behind Desert Encounter last time out at Goodwood and if running to that level again should be bang-there.

 

3:15 - Sky Sports Racing Winter Hill Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

9/10 – Won over 1m2f+ before
8/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/10 – Winners from stalls 1 (4) or 4 (3)
7/10 – Had won 4+ times before
7/10 – Placed in the top three last time out
5/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
2/10 – Trained by Michael Bell
2/10 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
Desert Encounter won this race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

TQ VERDICT: Only six runners here, but with 7 of the last 10 winners coming from stalls 1 or 4 then that’s good news for Tinandali, who is drawn 1, and King Ottokar, from draw 4. The former looks to have a bit to find in this company, while KING OTTOKAR hasn’t really progressed as expected when showing promise last year. The first-time visor is interesting though and he’s also been gelded since his last run – he might be worth having a small interest in as clearly has ability.  Sinjaari is the only CD winner in the line-up and returned last month with a nice win at York but is up from handicap company into a Group Three here so more needed. The two top-rated in the field though are Fox Chairman (114) and Extra Elusive (113). The latter will be ridden by Hollie Doyle and was a very nice winner of the G3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock last time and can go close. But it might not be easy having to give 3lbs away to FOX CHAMPION, who was a decent runner-up in the G2 York Stakes last time out. This slight ease in grade will help and recent runs suggest he heads here in tip-top form.

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