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21st October 2021

Saturday TV Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 5th Sept 2020

This Saturday the ITV cameras head to Haydock, Kempton and Ascot to take in races across the three venues.

The Group One Sprint Cup is the clear highlight of the weekend from Haydock - Did you know that 15 of the last 18 Sprint Cup winners were aged 5 or younger, while 13 of the last 18 came from stalls 6 or higher?

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at TQ with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the big fields – So, let’s get cracking!


Saturday 5th September 2020


HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)


1.45 – Betfair Superior Mile (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV

14/16 – Won over 1m or further before
14/16 – Won 3 or more times before
13/16 – Winning distance 1 length or more
13/16 – Had won a Listed or better race before
12/16 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had 3 or more runs that season
9/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
7/16 – Ran at either York or Ascot last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Had won at Haydock before
3/16 – Trained by Roger Charlton
3/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Trained by Brian Ellison
6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 1 or 4
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/2

Ryan Moore booked to ride the only CD winner in the field – Qaysar – stands out, but more is needed now into Group company. Dark Vision was a Listed winner at Pontefract two runs back but failed to build on that in the G3 Strensall Stakes last time out at York. Stormy Atlantic is the top-rated in the field and having run second in a G1 over in France last time out should go well back in calmer waters, but it might not be easy giving 5lbs away to the lesser exposed KHALOOSY. Yes, this Roger Varian runner flopped at odds-on at Goodwood last time out in the G3 Bonhams Stakes, but the horse didn’t get the best of runs that day and the softer ground here will also be much more in his favour. Prior to that he was an easy winner of the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot and is clearly a better horse than he showed last time. My Oberon also gets the 3 year-old allowance and is respected.


2.15 – Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Cl2 1m6f ITV

10/11 – Came from stalls 3-10 (inc)
10/11 – Had run in the last 4 weeks
9/11 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
9/11 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/11 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Rated between 81-89 (inc)
6/11 – Came from stalls 6-10 (inc)
6/11 – Irish Bred
6/11 – Placed favourites
5/11 – Won last time out
5/11 – Ran at either York (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Andrew Balding
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

Godolphin’s AL DABARAN sets the standard and is the clear top-rated in the field off a mark of 105. He’s dropped into a handicap too, from Group level, and despite having to give quite a bit of weight away as a result still looks the one to be on – he comes from the in-form Charlie Appleby yard. Softer ground is fine too and even though he’s yet to win over this trip, he’s run well over it. Of the rest, both Favorite Moon and Arthurian Fable are proven distance winners, but the former needs to bounce back from a poor run at York last time out. The race is completed with – Dancing Harry and Midrarr – the former is running 3lbs out of the handicap so has that to overcome, so the danger can come from the Hollie Doyle-ridden Midrarr. The Haggas yard, who also train Favorite Moon, have a cracking 32% record with their 3 year-olds at the track, while with just three career runs looks the sort to have more in the locker after an eye-catching win at Chester last time out.


2.50 – Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap Cl2 1m6f ITV

16/17 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
16/17 – Had won at least twice before
15/17 – Had run 4 or more times that season
15/17 – Aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old
14/17 – Finished 4th or better last time out
13/17 – Rated 90 to 101
12/17 – Drawn in stall 7 or higher
10/17 – Winning distance ¾ lengths or less
9/17 – Had run over 1m6f before
8/17 – Carried 9-0 or more
8/17 – Ran at Haydock before
6/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/17 – Ran at York last time out
4/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/17 – Ridden by Joe Fanning
2/17 – Trained by Iain Jardine (2 of last 5 winners)
2/17 – Trained by Ian Williams (last 2 winners)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
Reshoun (6/1) won this race in 2018

Several key trends to take into this 17-runner race. With 15 of the last 17 winners aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old then this might be seen as a negative for the older runners in the race – Glencadam Glory, Cape Coast, Euchen Glen, Reshoun, Brandon Castle, Just In Time, Saglawy and Stargazer. Hollie Doyle has been booked to ride Brandon Castle, who has been in good form over hurdles lately, and should make a bold bid from the front. The Ian Williams yard have a good recent record in the race so their Reshoun, who won this race in 2018, has to be respected despite falling down on the age trend. He was also a fair third in the race 12 months ago, but is rated 7lbs higher than last year and 10lbs higher than 2018. Mark Johnston is another trainer that’s done well in the race – winning it 4 times in the last 17 – so his Cape Coast is respected. He’s, however, up 5lbs for his last win and will need to improve again. Horses drawn in stalls 7 or higher have the best record, so Stargazer, Future Investment, Saglawy, Cape Coast, Finniston Farm, Glencadam Glory and Dark Jedi would have this as a negative. With all that in mind, the likes of Australis, the consistent Rajinsky and Indianapolis catch the eye, but the two selections are RHYTHMIC INTENT (e/w) and DIOCLETIAN (e/w). The first-named has won two of his last three and was really impressive last time when winning easily at Newbury. A 6lb rise for that looks fair and the softer ground is a clear plus with all three career wins coming with some degree of ‘soft’ in the going description. The other pick – Diocletian – was a fair fourth in a Listed race at Chester last time and will find things easier now into a handicap again. Oisin Murphy riding is the icing on the cake.


3.25 – Betfair Sprint Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

16/18 – Unplaced horses from stall 1
15/18 - Aged 5 or younger
15/18 – Rated 111 or higher
15/18 – Had won over 6f before
14/18 – Had 4 or more career wins to their name
14/18 – Didn’t win their previous race
14/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/18 – Winning distance 1 length or less
13/18 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
12/18 –Had 4 or more runs that season
12/18 – Had won a Group race before
9/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/18 – Ran at Deauville (4) or York (5) last time out
9/18 – Had run at Haydock before (3 had won)
7/18 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
7/18 – Had won a Group 1 before
6/18 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 9/1
Hello Youmzain (9/2 cfav) won this race in 2019
The Tin Man (7/1) won this race in 2018

A top renewal of this Group One, with the last two winners in the race – The Tin Man and Hello Youmzain – lining up again. The Tin Man is not getting any younger at 8 years-old though and is seemingly held by the Owen Burrows-trained Tabdeed, who finished ½ a length ahead of him at Newbury last time. Tabdeed has now won 5 of his 8 starts and is clearly a rapidly-improving sprinter, but this is his biggest test to date. The same applies to the Hollie Doyle-ridden Glen Shiel, while after showing a lot of promise earlier this season, Art Power didn’t run as well as expected last time at York in the Nunthorpe – in his defence the return to 6f will suit and he was running with Battaash in the race. Aidan O’Brien’s Lope Y Fernandez is another to respect, but, for me, just doesn’t win enough and is now 5 G1 runs without success. Golden Horde was a good winner of the G1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot and can’t be ruled out, but I think DREAM OF DREAMS and last year’s winner – Hello Youmzain – might be the ones to focus on, with preference for the Sir Michael Stoute runner. He was a very easy winner of the G2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury last time and even though that came over 7f, he’s a CD winner over this trip here. He was only a head behind Hello Youmzain at Ascot in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes but that came off a 254 day break so was still a top effort. Of course, Hello Youmzain will be no pushover, but has been beaten twice since winning at Ascot and, for me, I just feel Dream Of Dreams is heading here with a bit more confidence. Of the rest, I’ll take a chance on THE TIN MAN (e/w) running well too. This 8 year-old won this race in 2018 and was a close second in 2019, so likes this event. The softer ground will help too and he should be spot-on now after two runs this season.


4.00 - Betfair Each Way Edge Be Friendly Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV

14/17 – Previous winners over 5f
13/17 – Had won 4 or more times before
12/17 – Rated 90+
12/17 – Aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old
11/17 – Had run at Haydock before (2 won)
11/17 – Unplaced last time out
11/17 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
10/17 – Had 8 or more previous runs that season
10/17 – Winning distance - 1 length or less
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Placed favourites
8/17 – Carried 8-11 or less
3/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Tim Easterby

With 11 of the last 17 winners coming from stalls 7 or lower and 12 of the last 17 aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old then these stats suggest CAME FROM THE DARK, COUNT D’ORSAY, ISHVARA, MAGICAL SPIRIT, DAVE DEXTER and MILITIA (e/w) are the ones to focus on. Of that bunch the Paul Midgley runner – MILITIA (e/w) – who has won his last three races, gets the call. This 5 year-old is clearly in rude health at the moment despite only just getting up last time at Musselburgh looked to have more in-hand than the neck distance suggested. He’s up 4lbs here but when these sprinters are in good form, they are worth sticking with. Of the rest, the Tim Easterby yard have done well in this race in recent years, so their Copper Knight might be worth noting in the betting, while the consistent CD winner Ishvara should also run well. But the other pick is the Ed Walker runner – Came From The Dark, who represents last year’s winning yard. This CD winner should be a lot fitter for a recent run at York as that came off a 319-day break. He’s got a nice draw in 4 and Oisin Murphy is a top jockey booking.


Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)


3.05 - Lavazza Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m4f ITV

Only 10 previous runnings
8/10 – Rated between 84-95
8/10 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
7/10 – Had won just once before
5/10 – Horses placed from stall 10
5/10 – Returned a double-figure price
5/10 – Carried 9-0 or more
5/10 – Had run at Ascot before (3 won)
4/10 – Horses placed from stall 8
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites (1 co, 1 joint)
2/10 – Won by trainer Saeed Bin Suroor
2/10 – Trained by Roger Varian
Note: the 2015 running was a dead-heat

Another very competitive-looking handicap with a lot of potentially useful prospects lining up. The Stoute runner – My Frankel – has caught the eye having won his last two but is up in grade here and into a handicap for the first time so has more on his plate. The Ed Walker yard have a decent 27% record with their 3 year-olds at the track so their COCONUT (e/w) has to be respected. She was a nice winner at Newbury last time out and could have more to offer now into handicaps for the first time. The Haggas yard are well represented too with A Star Above and Al Qaqaa, while the likes of Grand Bazaar, Zabeel Champion and Cepheus are others that would have the past form to go well. But the other one I like here is the Roger Varian runner – SHANDOZ. He’s the only CD winner in the field and should be a lot fitter for a recent beating of Grand Bazaar as that came off a 322-day break. The potentially softer ground is an known, but this well-bred 3 year-old wouldn’t be risked if connections didn’t feel he wouldn’t act on it.


3.40 – Tweenhills Follow The Foals Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV

Only 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Aged 3 (2) or 5 (3) years-old
5/5 – Won over 6f before
5/5 – Rated between 80-91 (inc)
4/5 – Won 2+ times before
4/5 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
4/5 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
4/5 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
4/5 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Unplaced favourites
2/5 – Winning favourites
2/5 – Won last time out
2/5 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/5 – Trained by Ed Walker (last 2)

Just the five past runnings to go on, but some trends starting to build up. All of the last 5 winners were rated between 80-91 (inc), while 4 of the last 5 winners were drawn 9 or lower – this is not great news for the in-form May Sonic – who is rated 93 and drawn in stall 5. It’s another race the Ed Walker yard have targeted with success in recent years though – they’ve won the last two renewals, so their JONAH JONES (e/w) might be worth risking. He wasn’t beaten far the last day at York and that came after being slowly away too. He ran on well over that 5 ½ furlong trip so this step back up to 6f is a plus and he’s also run well here at the track in the past. Of the rest, CD winners Golden Apollo and Equitation enter the mix on their best form at a track they’ve run well at in the past. But the other pick is going to be INDIAN CREAK (e/w), who was a nice winner at Windsor last time. He’s up 4lbs for that, but most of that has been offset with Theodore Ladd’s 3lb claim. Softer ground here is fine and should make a bold bid.

4.15 – Porsche Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 7f ITV

Only 9 previous runnings
9/9 – Had won over 7f before
9/9 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
9/9 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or less
8/9 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/9 – Didn’t win last time out
8/9 – Had run at the course before
7/9 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/9 – Irish bred
6/9 – Unplaced last time out
4/9 – Rated between 95-97
4/9 – Won by a claiming jockey (4 of the last 6)
4/9 – Had between 4-7 wins already
3/9 – Aged 5 years-old
2/9 – Winners from stall 12
0/9 – Winning favourites
Salute The Soldier (10/1) won the race in 2019
Ripp Orf (7/1) won the race in 2018 and was second in 2019

Blue Mist is up 6lbs for his recent win over this course and distance, but he did it well and is now 2-from-5 at the track. He’s run well on soft ground too, so another big run is on the cards, but in a race like this doesn’t look the best value. Revich is another horse in-form that is sure to be popular, while the top-rated Accidental Agent will find this company a lot easier, as normally contests Group affairs, but as a result does has his fair share of weight to concede all-round. Society Lion can go well for the Stoute team and looks the sort to have more to come, while recent York scorer – Documenting – can’t be dismissed off just 6lbs higher. The two that I like though are VIA SERENDIPITY (e/w) and RAISING SAND (e/w). The former took advantage of a dropping handicap mark last time here to win on debut for the Charlie Fellowes yard. He’s up 7lbs for that and back from 1m to 7f, but having been rated as high as 108 less than a year ago, still looks well-treated. Raising Sands is the other to respect at a venue he rarely runs a bad race at. A recent run here at Royal Ascot would have blown away the cobwebs and is now only 4lbs higher than when winning over this course and distance on soft ground around this time last year.


Kempton Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.00 – Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Sirenia Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV

10/10 – Winners between stalls 2-10 (inc)
10/10 – Won 1 or 2 times before
10/10 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
10/10 – Had 4+ runs before
10/10 – Had won over 5f or 6f before
8/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Foaled March or earlier
8/10 – Finished 5th or better last time out
7/10 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
6/10 – Ran at York last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard

Frankie Dettori teaming up with Tom Dascombe to ride Lauded will attract attention and will benefit from the step up in trip here after finding 5f a bit too sharp last time. Kevin Ryan’s Hala Hala Hala gets the handy fillies allowance and that brings her right into calculations but ran well below-par last time out at York so needs to bounce back on that. I think the best form in the race though is from MYSTERY SMILES, who was third in the G2 Gimcrack last time out to the useful-looking Minzaal. I think the winner that day is a smart 2 year-old so to get within less than 3 lengths is useful-looking form, while this drop into a G3 will make life easier. Of the rest, with a stonking 42% record with their 2 year-olds at the track, the Charlie Appleby yard should always be respected here – they run CLOUDBRIDGE (e/w). This 2 year-old was a nice winner at Leicester on debut and despite flopping as a short favourite in the G3 Acomb Stakes at York last time, I feel that run was way too bad to be true. He’s clearly held in some regard as was sent off the Evs favourite that day, while being US-bred the switch to the AW looks an interesting move.


2.35 – Unibet September Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV

13/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
10/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Didn’t win last time out
10/14 – Had won between 4-7 times before
10/14 – Had won over 1m4f before
10/14 – Winning distance – 1 ¼l or more
9/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/14 – Horses from stall 2 that finished in the top 3
8/14 – Had run at Kempton before
5/14 – Ran at York (3) or Windsor (2) last time out
5/14 – Aged 4 years-old
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Godolphin-owned runners
3/14 – Winners from stall 2
3/14 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of the last 5)
3/14 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
1/14 – Winners from stall 1
Enable (8/15) won the race in 2018

This won’t take long – ENABLE will win this and then head off to France for another bid at winning the Arc! It’s as simple as that – she landed this prize in 2018 as her prep race for the Arc and being rated a massive 15lbs higher than her nearest rival – Prince Of Arran – then it’s clear to see how much in-hand she’s got. He bolted-up in the King George at Ascot in July and her regular rider – Frankie Dettori – rides. Plus, having won on the surface before then there really is no negatives. Prince Of Arran looks the most likely to chase her home, but he’s probably using this race for a prep too and is likely to head Down Under for another tilt at the Melbourne Cup – a race he’s finished third and second in before. Fox Tal and Tinandali can do best of the rest.


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